Current assessment
"His future, it's still to be proven," the former GM said. "They have the most talent of anybody probably in the NFC. It's not that just anybody could coach that group, because Mike Singletary could not. But I don't see innovation. I see three of four first-round picks on the offensive line kicking ass. Sometimes a coach's best work isn't with a Super Bowl team. How would he handle average talent? We all know if you stay in it long enough, what comes around goes around."
Most new coaches walk into rebuilding projects. In contrast, Harbaugh inherited a roster that was ready to win -- if only Harbaugh could improve the quarterback situation and offensive coaching, which he and his staff have famously done.
Former San Francisco and current Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith had a 71.9 passer rating and 29.1 Total QBR score from 2006 through Week 4 of the 2010 season with the 49ers. Those figures rose to 95.1 and 45.1, respectively, as a healthier Smith showed improvement over his final six starts under Singletary. Then, with Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman adding volume to the running game when they took over in 2011, the 49ers became a dominant team on early downs. They used two backs with two tight ends about twice as frequently, cutting back on three-receiver groupings. The result was an offense that plays to its run-blocking strengths while steering defenses away from the nickel packages that allow defensive coordinators greater flexibility in coverage. Smith had a 24-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio with a 65.3 QBR score across first and second downs in two seasons under Harbaugh. That was up from a 26-to-27 TD-to-INT ratio with a 34.6 QBR score on early downs over the previous five seasons.
Third down is when the best quarterbacks step forward, and Smith never did. His passer rating and QBR score improved only slightly on third down under Harbaugh. They were at 83.7 and 24.4, respectively, over the past two seasons. Current starter Colin Kaepernick has a 103.8 passer rating and 77.3 QBR score on third down, counting playoffs, since becoming the starter in Week 11 last season. That reflects well on Kaepernick, the organization's decision to draft him and on Harbaugh's controversial decision to stick with Kaepernick after Smith returned from a brief concussion absence.
A former 49ers staffer said Harbaugh is at his best on the practice field tutoring Kaepernick on technical aspects of the position. He said Harbaugh won over players early when the team went 2-0 during a 2011 road trip made memorable for the unconventional decision to stay at a Holiday Inn near Youngstown, Ohio, between games -- a potentially tough sell for players accustomed to better accommodations. The ex-staffer called Harbaugh a compelling storyteller with the ability to rally players, especially younger ones, through old-school tales invoking legends ranging from Wally Pip to Muhammad Ali. Harbaugh was so big on motivational tactics, the ex-staffer said, that he would sometimes personally select plays for the inspirational highlight videos that are standard viewing for teams on the nights before games.
"Harbaugh has a better coaching staff than Singletary had," the former 49ers staffer said. "He is a better coach. He knows a lot more X's and O's than Singletary, but I don't know how much he does with that any more. Greg Roman and Johnny Morton do most of it as far as the passing game, for sure. Roman and Mike Solari and Tom Rathman do all the run-game stuff. Obviously, Harbaugh knows what he sees, but he is not one of those guys like a Bill Belichick who is heavily involved all the time in game planning every week. The reason they are good is because they have really good players."
Kaepernick and outside linebacker Aldon Smith are the key draft choices San Francisco has added under Harbaugh. Other important pieces were in place. Players logging offensive or defensive snaps under Singletary in 2010 accounted for 75.2 percent of starts during Harbaugh's first two seasons with the team. Those players accounted for 71.3 percent of offensive and defensive snaps over the same span. The percentages were in the 40s for the players Carroll inherited. Despite relatively little turnover, the 49ers made huge strides in the standings. They went from 14-18 in the two seasons before Harbaugh's arrival to 25-7-1 on his watch. That doesn't happen by accident.
Players respond well to coaches with the knowledge and flexibility to adapt. That is one area where Harbaugh's and Carroll's staffs have thrived. Successfully changing the 49ers' offensive on the fly to incorporate the pistol formation for Kaepernick comes to mind as one 49ers example. Carroll converted top-heavy defensive tackle Red Bryant into a strong-side end, then built his line around him. The Seahawks also were at the forefront of a movement toward bigger cornerbacks, going to the extreme by signing the 6-foot-4 Brandon Browner from the CFL. Browner went to a Pro Bowl.
Future outlook
However, there are potential long-term concerns for both coaches.
One concern for Harbaugh could be how his all-work-no-play mindset and sometimes zany antics will translate when the team has a rough season. It was vintage Harbaugh on Monday when the coach called out the Green Bay Packers' Clay Matthews for failing to "come with some knuckles" during a fracas with the 49ers' Joe Staley in Week 1. The 2012 confrontation between Harbaugh and the Lions coach Jim Schwartz over a botched post-game handshake also fit the combative profile. Privately, Harbaugh is known to reference his role in various fights and scrapes, including the time during Harbaugh's playing days when he confronted former Buffalo Bills quarterback Jim Kelly, who had questioned his toughness.
"He is obviously a great coach because he got Alex Smith going -- he coached him up," an executive for another team said. "Look what he has done with Kaepernick. He is a great coach, an upper-echelon coach. He's organized, he's got a program, but he just has some of that meathead stuff that at some point will wear you out. They better keep winning. "
Harbaugh's antics have generally been received as a coach standing up for his players. Repeated frequently enough, though, and that type of behavior -- along with Harbaugh's constant berating of game officials -- can become more about the coach himself, some said.
"I just think if things get sideways, I think some guys would turn on him," the ex-49ers' staffer said. "The way he handled the Alex (Smith) thing when they said they did not pursue Peyton Manning
the players were pissed when all that went down. Alex hadn't had a lot of success, but all the guys liked him. I just worry. He comes off as a players' coach, but I'm not sure. I think he is his coach. He is about doing what he wants to do."
Smith found that out the hard way after Harbaugh had called him "elite" and a Pro Bowl-caliber player, only to bench him at the first opportunity. Harbaugh's bold decision to stick with Kaepernick as his starter after a concussion sidelined Smith sent a unfortunate message at a time when the NFL was imploring players to self-report head injuries. But the move was the best one for the team on the field. The 49ers are 8-3, counting playoffs, with Kaepernick as the starter. Kaepernick ranks first in yards per drop-back, fifth in NFL passer rating and third in Total QBR since Week 11 last season, when he became the starter. He is the future of the franchise. Plus, the team was able to trade Smith for a high draft choice in 2014.
Carroll has also collected on a high-risk bet at the quarterback position. Installing rookie Russell Wilson as the starter over Matt Flynn last season went against convention. It was also the key to Carroll breaking a string of two consecutive 7-9 seasons. Last year, Seattle went 11-5 and came within seconds of advancing to the NFC Championship Game. Wilson threw four touchdown passes during a 42-13 victory over the 49ers late last season, a critical victory for Seattle. The QB's contributions were worth an estimated 4.1 additional victories compared to the way Seattle's quarterbacks played in 2011.
The Seahawks nearly caught the 49ers in the standings last season, finishing a half-game behind them in the NFC West. However, the former GM referenced above said he thought the 49ers had better talent than the Seahawks at this point, particularly on the offensive line. That is understandable. (In fact, earlier this week we outlined how the Niners have better future outlook.) The 49ers had young, ascending first-round picks at left tackle, left guard and right tackle when Harbaugh arrived. Seattle had four players start at left tackle in 2009, the year before Carroll was hired. That helps explain why the Seahawks used the sixth pick of the 2010 draft to select left tackle Russell Okung. And there was much more work to do, especially as Seattle had wasted a 2009 first-round pick on Aaron Curry. The Seahawks had gone 9-23 over the two seasons before Carroll arrived.
Carroll and general manager John Schneider blew up the roster. Players logging snaps under former coach Jim Mora in 2009 accounted for just 45.3 percent of starts and played 44.4 percent of snaps during Carroll's first two seasons with the team. Bryant and fellow defensive lineman Brandon Mebane are the only current starters remaining from the pre-Carroll era. Ben Obomanu and Marcus Trufant played limited roles last season as holdovers, but both were released before the 2013 season.
By comparison, current 49ers starters Vernon Davis, Anthony Davis, Patrick Willis, Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree (injured), Justin Smith, Frank Gore, Ray McDonald, Joe Staley, Ahmad Brooks, NaVorro Bowman, Alex Boone and Tarell Brown predated Harbaugh. Four of them have earned Pro Bowl and/or first-team Associated Press All-Pro honors over the past two seasons. Harbaugh also inherited Dashon Goldson, Parys Haralson, Alex Smith and Delanie Walker, who left this past offseason.
The 49ers still own the rights to 11 players who were with the team when the 2009 season ended. The number is two for Seattle.
Determining to what degree Harbaugh and Carroll influence personnel decisions can be tricky. The 49ers promoted Trent Baalke to GM before hiring Harbaugh. The Seahawks hired Carroll and involved him the GM search, hiring Schneider with Carroll's blessing. Both coaches now appear to have the personnel they want.
A former Seahawks staffer gave Carroll high marks for helping Schneider overhaul the roster with ascending young players. Carroll's playing and coaching roots are in the secondary. It's no coincidence Seattle has what is, by all accounts, the best defensive backfield in the game. Meanwhile, Schneider was the driving force behind the team's interest in Wilson. Seattle ranks tied with Cincinnati for the most Pro Bowl players drafted since 2010 (four), even though Sherman, arguably the best of the bunch, is not among them.
While the 49ers face contract decisions regarding Iupati and Crabtree in the coming year or so, Sherman and Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas are among the Seattle players up for new contracts over the next couple of seasons. Both teams benefit from having quarterbacks locked into the rookie-wage scale, but those dynamics will change as early as 2014 for the 49ers and a year later for the Seahawks.
"It will be interesting to see if Pete's input on the roster survives in the long run," the former Seahawks staffer said. "It got off to a good start and they made some good decisions, but after three or four years, some of those guys who have played well will have contracts up. It will be interesting to see when the money becomes a factor how you manage them then. Now, he comes off as everybody's buddy and it's a big love-fest, but when you are a player and can't get the money you want, what happens then? That's when things change."
The former GM said he liked Carroll, but he couldn't quite put into words why he didn't regard Seattle's fourth-year coach as one of the very best. He said Carroll's relaxed style is unique in the NFL, putting the coach in another category. But he didn't see a clear reason why Carroll would not succeed in the future.
"Is there enough discipline there to not screw it up under pressure?" the former GM asked. "I think he has good leadership on the team. That sure helps. Maybe this is just the right group right now for him. They have been allowed to reshape their roster two or three times. No one has made more changes."
The way Carroll left USC right before NCAA sanctions hit did not help his image. Carroll's so-so run as the New England Patriots' coach in the late 1990s led him to reconsider his methods, but it also gave him an underwhelming NFL legacy to overcome. Going 7-9, 7-9 and 11-5 in this first three seasons with Seattle is a start.
"I'm not sure Pete's run in New England was so-so," ESPN analyst and six-time NFL executive of the year Bill Polian said. "He made the playoffs, which is more than a lot of people do. And his success at USC was evident. That is not an accident."
Polian said there's room in the league for successful coaches with vastly different styles, particularly if those styles have succeeded in the past and if the coach has NFL experience. Polian, responsible for hiring future Hall of Fame coach Marv Levy in Buffalo during the 1980s, listed four general requirements for a head coach: successful track record, intelligence, a vision for how the team should look and a grasp of the tactics necessary to put together a team within the salary-cap structure.
"If you use those as rudimentary benchmarks, both guys get high marks in all phases," Polian said.
Harbaugh and Carroll will be battling for NFC West supremacy Sunday night, but their long-term rivalry should play out years into the future. Both coaches appear in position to extend their contracts, which run through 2014 (Carroll) and 2015 (Harbaugh). It will be interested to see whether Harbaugh in particular seeks additional control over personnel, as successful coaches often do, and whether both coaches adapt to the challenges that await. But so far, so good.