What percent of first rounders pan out to justify the value of the pick? I keep hearing the value of it, but they traded an unknown value for a known value with huge upside. They now have Andrew Luck, Trent Richardson, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, TY Hilton, and Vick Ballard.... All just in their second years.
The more I think about it, the more I love it.
Well, that known/unknown truly depends on the pick. The unknown pick could very well have a huge upside as well. So that's no really something to differentiate the two in my mind.
What I feel is what makes the value of Trent overrated at this point is that he's had one okay year, and I think you could find someone deeper in the draft that could match his output. They might not have his huge upside (that may never be realized), and you risk less by taking these guys. A 2nd or 3rd round pick is still significant, but at least with your first rounders you can take positions that are more important. RBs still belong in the game obviously, but they are less important (in my eyes), and less deserving of a first round pick than other positions.
I do like the balls of Irsay to go for it, and it does make the team better, but let's say he has a 1000 yd, 12 TD season. Was it worth a first round pick? I don't think I could justify it. Then again that first round pick might be a huge bust. Really it's gambling to a degree, so we won't know right away who got the better of the trade. At this point, unless Trent absolutely takes off, we will just have to wait and see who does what.
As a sidenote, first rounders pan out more often than any other round (I need to find this chart someday, it exists can't remember where I found it).