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[Bowser]

Really interesting post on Advanced Football Analytics that attempts to quantify the impact of a coach's challenge and whether or not the flag should have been thrown:

Every replay situation is unique. We can't quantify the probability that a particular play will be overturned statistically, but we can determine the breakeven probability of success for a challenge to be worthwhile for any situation. If a coach believes the chance of overturning the call is above the breakeven level, he should challenge. Below the breakeven level, he should hold onto his red flag.


To calculate the breakeven probability of reversal, we need a bit of algebra. Let's define the relevant numbers as follows:

B = breakeven probability of reversal
R = win probability given call reversed
U = win probability given call upheld
N = win probability given no challenge is made

We just need set the WP of no challenge (N) equal to the "lottery" of challenging the call and we get:

N = B * R + (1-B) * U

Solving for B, we get:

B = (N - U) / (R - U)

This makes sense, because the lower the WP penalty is for a failed challenge, the lower the breakeven success probability needs to be. Likewise, the bigger the WP bonus is for reversal, the lower the breakeven success probability needs to be.

The post then analyzes a few challenges, including what I thought was a dumb challenge by Ron Rivera on a 4-yard completion by the Bucs on 1st and 10 at the beginning of the 3rd quarter:

6. 1-10-CAR 41, 14:57 in the 3rd, CAR ahead by 10 -- TB's Josh McCown escapes a sack and completes a 4-yard pass. CAR challenges, hoping McCown was down before throwing but the call is upheld. I commented that I believed it was an unwise challenge at the time, but the breakeven was only 7%.

Now, I doubt coaches are thinking in these terms, but the post's conclusion seems to show that coaches' intuition/gut has probably been more correct than we tend to think:

These six examples are instructive. First, contrary to my intuition, it seems that coaches are not blowing their timeouts on frivolous challenges. If a call is fishy at all--say somewhere in the neighborhood of a 1-in-10 or 1-in-20 chance of being overturned, and the difference in outcomes moves the WP needle at all, it's probably a good idea to challenge it. Certainly any time a score or turnover is on the line, it should be challenged. When a conversion is at stake, or even when the probability of a conversion is significantly affected, it's probably a good idea to challenge.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2014/09/analyzing-replay-challenges.html#more

 

[Fox318]

watching first take for some reason.

Watching Stephen A trying to defend people who sucker punch their significant others is really something

 

[Clockwork5]

My condolences, storybook. Stay strong.

 

[Bowser]

The Bucs defense - where 5 guys look on in awe at a beast in the making

 

[Goro Majima]

It's not that I hate it, I actually want to like it but from what I seen in streams there's nothing that screams to me I should play it. I'm probably will just stick with FFXIV and the other games coming out. Sucks Arkham Knights is delayed till June

Yeah I wasn't speaking to anyone in this thread even though we have two of the biggest console warriors in here (YH and Dragon...although they'll probably deny it).

I get that literally not everyone is going to like it but I feel like Destiny is a game that can appeal to both hardcore and casual players alike. Lots of people hate Assassins Creed but it still sells a ton so I should probably learn to take GAF's opinion with a grain of salt. I will say that GAF's overall opinion of a game in the long run is usually right but getting first impressions can be a bit difficult.

watching first take for some reason.

Watching Stephen A trying to defend people who sucker punch their significant others is really something

I have already heard several people offline say that she was probably acting crazy and had it coming. I'm sure Stephen A is probably making a similar defense.

 

[BlackGhost]

watching first take for some reason.

Watching Stephen A trying to defend people who sucker punch their significant others is really something

he'll probably have to apologize tomorrow morning, and Espn will suspend him for an hour.

Normal procedure for him

 

[RellyRell28]

watching first take for some reason.

Watching Stephen A trying to defend people who sucker punch their significant others is really something

What did he say cause you guys seem to have a way of blowing shit out of proportion.

 

[cajunator]

After a long fight with cancer, my mother passed away last night. It'll be tough but me and my family will get through this. I appreciate all of the well wishes that have already been posted in this thread, thru PM, or even on twitter. Her suffering has ended and for that I am thankful.

Take care NFL-GAF.

Wish you the best man. We are all here if you need.

 

[Plinko]

Thoughts and prayers for you and your family, storybook.

 

[JCizzle]

I'm level 11 and I have gotten a handful of usable uncommon drops. If you go through a dungeon and kill one of the bosses they don't drop anything. That's super anti-climactic for bosses with so much health.

Wait, bosses don't have guaranteed loot drops?? Wtf.

 

[Plinko]

Lions RT Corey Hilliard out for the year. Wonderful. Our starter, Waddle, is also injured.

 

[Bowser]

Lions RT Corey Hilliard out for the year. Wonderful. Our starter, Waddle, is also injured.

Never want to see an opponent injured, but I'm sure the Panthers D-Line is licking its chops at the thought of a 3rd string tackle on the line, and facing a banged up secondary that already wasn't very good when healthy is a boon for Cam making his first regular season start with our new receiving corps.

 

[ShaneB]

After a long fight with cancer, my mother passed away last night. It'll be tough but me and my family will get through this. I appreciate all of the well wishes that have already been posted in this thread, thru PM, or even on twitter. Her suffering has ended and for that I am thankful.

Take care NFL-GAF.

=*(

So sorry to hear that. Be strong and you will get through this like you said.

 

[Himynameischris]

Wake named afc defensive player of the week, well deserved

 

[squicken]

Wake named afc defensive player of the week, well deserved

This is like Jordan not being MVP every year for 10 years. Watt can't win every week

 

[methodman]

I'm so sorry to hear that storybook. RIP

 

[SonnyBoy]

I joined our Destiny group last night, feel free to invite me at any time if you see me on.

 

[Futurevoid]

Sorry to hear about your loss, storybook. Keep strong, bro.

Bosses never drop anything? The fuck?

Can you break up the unusable stuff to sell or anything?

Bosses do at times drop but not always.

You can go into your inventory and dismantle unneeded items at any time for glimmer. The game automatically gives you the glimmer, you don't have to sell the broken down part or anything.

My problem with the loot system is that theres very little fanfare for when it drops. I know that sounds a little silly but if you look at something like Diablo 3, when a legendary drops there's a very pronounces ringing sound that happens and you get that wonderful glowing orange light where the item is (and a star on the map so you can't miss it). In Destiny, an encrypted engram (which are the rare items) drops as a smallish diamond from an enemy and it really doesn't look much different than an ammo drop. It's really easy as hell to miss. The purples in the game (which seem to be the legendary stuff) don't seem to drop much at all and look to be primarily acquired through the different vendors in the tower.

Maybe I'm wrong on that part though and those "oooohh!" type of items will drop as the game progresses along but we'll see.

Outside of that though, I bought the game primarily based on my enjoyment of the alpha/beta and I got exactly what I expected. I'm enjoying it quite a bit. Especially with friends. I only wish the fire teams could be a bit bigger.

Speaking of which, sorry I didn't join your group Blackghost. I was playing with some members of the other clan I'm a part of for most of the night.

 

[RellyRell28]

Lions RT Corey Hilliard out for the year. Wonderful. Our starter, Waddle, is also injured.

Well I guess it was too much to ask to have a good line two years in a row.

 

[Himynameischris]

This is like Jordan not being MVP every year for 10 years. Watt can't win every week

Whats crazy is that its only the second time hes won it

 

[Dragon]

I'm level 11 and I have gotten a handful of usable uncommon drops. If you go through a dungeon and kill one of the bosses they don't drop anything. That's super anti-climactic for bosses with so much health.

The loot is random which can be annoying. There is a story mission that gave me access to a 250 defense chest armor though that was not random.

 

[yankeehater]

Yeah I wasn't speaking to anyone in this thread even though we have two of the biggest console warriors in here (YH and Dragon...although they'll probably deny it).

I get that literally not everyone is going to like it but I feel like Destiny is a game that can appeal to both hardcore and casual players alike. Lots of people hate Assassins Creed but it still sells a ton so I should probably learn to take GAF's opinion with a grain of salt. I will say that GAF's overall opinion of a game in the long run is usually right but getting first impressions can be a bit difficult.



I have already heard several people offline say that she was probably acting crazy and had it coming. I'm sure Stephen A is probably making a similar defense.

I would definitely deny it, I dobt that dragon would though.

 

[zychi]

destiny is fun with friends.

it's terrible for single player content.

it's annoying with randoms

i wish it had a mp as deep as the halos :/

 

[eznark]

Know what game is great and lives up to it's

Spoiler

nonexistent

hype?

The Golf Club

 

[Goro Majima]

Sorry to hear about your loss, storybook. Keep strong, bro.



Bosses do at times drop but not always.

You can go into your inventory and dismantle unneeded items at any time for glimmer. The game automatically gives you the glimmer, you don't have to sell the broken down part or anything.

My problem with the loot system is that theres very little fanfare for when it drops. I know that sounds a little silly but if you look at something like Diablo 3, when a legendary drops there's a very pronounces ringing sound that happens and you get that wonderful glowing orange light where the item is (and a star on the map so you can't miss it). In Destiny, an encrypted engram (which are the rare items) drops as a smallish diamond from an enemy and it really doesn't look much different than an ammo drop. It's really easy as hell to miss. The purples in the game (which seem to be the legendary stuff) don't seem to drop much at all and look to be primarily acquired through the different vendors in the tower.

Maybe I'm wrong on that part though and those "oooohh!" type of items will drop as the game progresses along but we'll see.

Outside of that though, I bought the game primarily based on my enjoyment of the alpha/beta and I got exactly what I expected. I'm enjoying it quite a bit. Especially with friends. I only wish the fire teams could be a bit bigger.

Speaking of which, sorry I didn't join your group Blackghost. I was playing with some members of the other clan I'm a part of for most of the night.

Seems like it would be an easy patch to add something in to make drops more visible. I'm sure they'll do that at some point in the future.

 

[BigAT]

Don't worry guys, Binding of Isaac Rebirth is only two months out and won't disappoint like Destiny.

 

[Greg]

Know what game is great and lives up to it's

Spoiler

nonexistent

hype?

The Golf Club

game of the year!

 

[BannedEpisode]

I really do like the game though!

 

[Himynameischris]

Don't worry guys, Binding of Isaac Rebirth is only two months out and won't disappoint like Destiny.

Oh a scale of no hot shots golf to hot shots golf, where would this rank?

 

[captive]

Know what game is great and lives up to it's

Spoiler

nonexistent

hype?

The Golf Club

Dammit man, you have me almost buying this. It looks so good. The problem is that it looks like it wont run on my surface 2. White ps4 it is.

Cameron wake must have had a hell of a game to beat out watt.

 

[Grover Cleveland]

I fucked up getting The Golf Club on PC, where its not particularly optimized, in terms of graphics and more importantly frame rate. The mechanics and underlying physics of the game are terrific though.

It's OK though. Hot Shots Golf is going to come through and crush the buildings on PS4

 

[Greg]

I fucked up getting The Golf Club on PC, where its not particularly optimized. The mechanics and underlying physics of the game is terrific though

It's OK though. Hot Shots Golf is going to come through and crush the buildings on PS4

it's not optimized on consoles either, but it's a damn good game of golf, so I don't care

can't wait for HSG though!

 

[Vyroxis]

Ya know, after week 2 I could easily see the NFC North having three 1-1 teams, and the Bears at 0-2 (Niners gonna fucking butcher them poor bastards).

 

[chuckddd]

Ya know, after week 2 I could easily see the NFC North having three 1-1 teams, and the Bears at 0-2 (Niners gonna fucking butcher them poor bastards).

Don't talk like this. VikeBike is going 2-0!

 

[Himynameischris]

Ya know, after week 2 I could easily see the NFC North having three 1-1 teams, and the Bears at 0-2 (Niners gonna fucking butcher them poor bastards).

Vikings better go 2-0!

 

[Dragon]

I do have to say, Chan is as bigoted through voice chat as he is on here. Sad.

Also, I'd like to play with bionic if only to say Michael Jordan every ten seconds!

 

[Grover Cleveland]

Sorry to hear about your mom storybook.

Stay strong man

 

[Goro Majima]

Ya know, after week 2 I could easily see the NFC North having three 1-1 teams, and the Bears at 0-2 (Niners gonna fucking butcher them poor bastards).

I'm thinking a Niners choke is possible because Kap hasn't screwed over Green Bay enough in his career.

 

[eznark]

I fucked up getting The Golf Club on PC, where its not particularly optimized, in terms of graphics and more importantly frame rate. The mechanics and underlying physics of the game are terrific though.

It's OK though. Hot Shots Golf is going to come through and crush the buildings on PS4

You fucked up by not getting it on both, like me.

 

[Futurevoid]

Seems like it would be an easy patch to add something in to make drops more visible. I'm sure they'll do that at some point in the future.

Yep. They need to patch in some type of in-game clan system as well. Having to do it all from the website is kind of poo.

 

[Dragon]

So some story missions when you have drops and you don't pick them up, they will appear in that message center in the Tower. This may only be the story required ones, I haven't figured it out yet.

 

[BigAT]

Oh a scale of no hot shots golf to hot shots golf, where would this rank?

It's basically the spiritual successor to Hot Shots Golf, but better!

 

[BaltimoreLarry]

Last night, I got all the way to the Character creation screen in Destiny and had to bail. I plan to actually play tonight. How long am I gonna have to put in before I can get to multiplayer?

 

[AbortedWalrusFetus]

The next time I hear someone say "I wish so-and-so hadn't made that awesome play because it hurt my fantasy team" or anything similar I am going to punch them in the face.

 

[Goro Majima]

The next time I hear someone say "I wish so-and-so hadn't made that awesome play because it hurt my fantasy team" or anything similar I am going to punch them in the face.

You're officially apart of NFL GAF now.

One of us! One of us!

 

[bionic77]

I do have to say, Chan is as bigoted through voice chat as he is on here. Sad.

Also, I'd like to play with bionic if only to say Michael Jordan every ten seconds!

I would get owned. I suck at games these days. I would not appreciate hearing Pats fans telling me of the virtues of Tammy Brady or Michael Jordan while being tea bagged every 10 seconds and having a negative kill ratio.

My pal has twins who are 2 years older than mind but he had seemingly endless free time because he pulls an eznark and never spends time with his family. Dude is always up for everything. And he is busy at work too.

 

[Dragon]

Last night, I got all the way to the Character creation screen in Destiny and had to bail. I plan to actually play tonight. How long am I gonna have to put in before I can get to multiplayer?

I think you need to get past the Level 5 story mission. So an hour or two at the least. I would say it's worth it, even though the MP is balanced, your perks do stack anyway so you'll want those abilities.

I would get owned. I suck at games these days. I would not appreciate hearing Pats fans telling me of the virtues of Tammy Brady or Michael Jordan while being tea bagged every 10 seconds and having a negative kill ratio.

My pal has twins who are 2 years older than mind but he had seemingly endless free time because he pulls an eznark and never spends time with his family. Dude is always up for everything. And he is busy at work too.

Dude I probably had a .5 k/d yesterday. I'm terrible. It's really really fun though.

 

[Greg]

The next time I hear someone say "I wish so-and-so hadn't made that awesome play because it hurt my fantasy team" or anything similar I am going to punch them in the face.

but I needed 3 points in the league you aren't in to beat that person you don't know!

 

[PhoenixDark]

The Bucs defense - where 5 guys look on in awe at a beast in the making

He's going to eat up the Lions' secondary. Man...my draft hopes were for us to trade down and acquire another second round draft pick. CB in first round, Benjamin in second alongside another defensive player in the second. I remember initially it looked like he could be a second round draft pick but that changed pretty quickly.

 

[chuckddd]

The next time I hear someone say "I wish so-and-so hadn't made that awesome play because it hurt my fantasy team" or anything similar I am going to punch them in the face.

eznark alt?