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NFL 2015 Divisional |OT| - A Fraud Divided

B

Blackhead

Redarse
bomb said:
From ESPN today:

McCarty's Mistake

The irony, of course, is that they're advancing at the expense of the Packers and coach Mike McCarthy, who leaves the postseason in the wake of another game management blunder. Last year, it was McCarthy's hyper-conservative decision-making early in the game which cost the Packers critical points they would need later in the contest.

This year, it was not going for two after the Hail Mary. Kickers hit 94.2 percent of their extra points this year; that figure rose to 97.6 percent indoors, and Crosby was 36-for-36 this year, so let's just be kind and say that Crosby's going to tie the game 98 percent of the time. (Vikings fans will tell you that no kick is automatic.) So 2 percent of the time, the Packers lose without ever getting to overtime.

If the Packers do go to overtime, they're going to be underdogs. The Cardinals were seven-point favorites heading into the contest; after taking out the vig, the implied odds from the Vegas money line suggested that the Packers had a 26 percent chance of winning the game. Green Bay had certainly played better than they had during Arizona's regular-season blowout in the previous matchup, but they had lost Randall Cobb and needed two Hail Mary completions to tie the game.

It's almost always better for the underdog to try to turn the game into a shorter contest. Taken to an extreme, if you're playing Steph Curry one-on-one and you start with the ball, it's better to play to one than 11, because you might fire off a jumper and get lucky, but you're not going to hit 11 shots over Steph without giving him the ball.

Even an aggressive estimate would suggest that the Packers had, say, a 40 percent chance of winning the game if it went into overtime. Factor in the aforementioned possibility of a missed Crosby extra point and you're down to a 39 percent shot if you kick the extra point. The chances of the Packers converting their two-pointer are almost definitely better than 39 percent. The league has converted 48.1 percent of its attempts over the past three years, with the Packers going 5-for-9. Give the Cardinals credit for a tough defense and take into consideration that the Packers don't have a great running game. You're still going to find it difficult to come up with a scenario in which the chances of winning the game heading into overtime are better than converting a two-pointer.

And if you really want, pretend for a moment that the percentages are tied. There's also the small matter of the M-word. If you believe that momentum is a meaningful concept in terms of how teams win and lose football games -- and I am admittedly skeptical -- why would you ever let the game slip into overtime? Having knocked the Cardinals onto the ropes with one of the more stunning sequences in playoff history and with a minute to figure out which play you wanted to run while referees reviewed the touchdown, why wouldn't McCarthy think that his chances of winning the game were better with one immediate play?

All things weren't equal, and that included Arizona's coaching advantage. McCarthy played it safe yet again, and it ended up costing his team another postseason in the prime of the 32-year-old Rodgers' career. He coached to put off losing as long as possible. Arians coached to win, and while it raised some eyebrows and nearly cost his team the victory, he made far more defensible decisions than his counterpart.

McCarthy's choice was safer and attracted far less attention, but that doesn't make his decision the correct one. Instead of going by the book, McCarthy could take a page out of Arians'. A lot of coaches should.
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quoted because none of the posters laughing at bomb have responded to this hot takedown. bomb was right. nfl is not worth the time anywa
 
L

Lan Dong Mik

And why would I want them?
TheLegendary said:
I feel much better after this game than I did after last years' game. I am at peace and hold no ill will towards the Cards unlike the filthy scummy cheating Seahawks.

Anyone blaming McCarthy is totally clueless. I couldnt believe that ESPN article came from Barnwell. It really reads like a high school kid's report in the way he crafts his arguments. Never realized how shitty of a writer he was.

In my opinion the game was lost when the Packers D failed to capitalize on all of the gimme turnovers Palmer was throwing . The throw to front right corner of the end zone that Shields had in two hands late in the 4th quarter particularly stings. For a group that played so well they really missed on some key plays that wouldve changed the game. In OT, Larry Fitz just clearly wanted it more than anyone else on the field. It was bad enough to leave him wide open, but the inexcusable part was not being able to get him down. Some of the angles taken on the tackle attempts...yeesh. I'm pretty confident they wouldve been able to hold them to a FG and at least give Rodgers a chance had any of the 4 or 5 players that were near him made the tackle.

I have a hard time faulting the defense too much because I'd hate to be associated with the insane mouth breathing "Fire Capers" crusaders who blame the D for everything. They played a really great game just as they have almost all year, and Capers had an absolutely stellar gameplan. Just a handful of miscues ended up being the difference. Of course you could say the same for the offense, but at this point in the season as sad as it is I come to expect that from them. Just a shame that the D had to be the ones to let them down this game.
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Well said and I agree 100%

It sucks to lose but I can't be that upset. It was a great game, played a great team, and it went to OT. I'm pulling for the Cards to win the whole thing now.
 
S

squicken

Member
I thought GB should have gone for two for the reasons Barnwell states in that column, but McCarthey didn't "screw up" by kicking.

I still think Patrick Peterson needs to be getting ripped for that hail mary. He showed no awareness and zero of the ball skills he is so often touted as having. In retrospect they should have had Fitz on the field
 
C

CrocMother

Banned
Zvonimir Boban said:
I want the Cards to get to the Owl and the game to end in a tie because every player gets hurt one by one until Fitzgerald is the only one left standing on either roster and football gets cancelled forever due to the backlash over how dangerous it is.

If I don't have football then nobody can enjoy it.
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Why not just be an LA Rams fan?
 
Z

zroid

Banned
squicken said:
I thought GB should have gone for two for the reasons Barnwell states in that column, but McCarthey didn't "screw up" by kicking.
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Agreed. Even though, in my opinion, going for 2 was the higher percentage play for the Packers, pretty much no head coach in the world would have the balls to make that call.
 
B

Beerman462

Member
BigAT said:
What does the Cardinals inability to play defense in important moments of regulation have to do with the overtime rules? If anything it makes the case against them stronger.
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Nah. The rules are the rules. People only bitch when they don't go their way. It's a tie because both teams failed clinch a victory in regulation. As others have said the rules are such to keep the game from going too long. I was pissed at Cards D for giving up 7 points with 5 secs left in the exact same fasion that GB beat the Lions. Packers fans should be pissed their D left our highest performing player undefended in OT where they know how high the stakes are. Blame your D not the rules.
 
R

RBH

Member
cdyhybrid said:
cVf5nO3.png


Should...should we tell them?
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Ninja Scooter said:
it's where I found this
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56yuoPv.gif
 
B

bomb

Unconfirmed Member
rjc571 said:
If Green Bay's offense is so unstoppable they should have gone for two to win the game at the end of regulation.
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People are dismissing that GB were huge underdogs to win. Also their best receiver was out of the game. I think if you ask any analyst before the game that if GB had a chance to win the game from the 2 yard with 1 play, should they take it? I think the overwhelming answer would be yes.
 
T

Trey

Member
Kusagari said:
But if McCarthy went for it and they didn't get it, these same people would be crucifying him.
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One play to get two yards after a prayer was answered? I'll never criticize that decision. How would you even frame that retort? "Oh McCarthy, such an aggressive playcall to win the game in regulation."
 
B

BigAT

Member
Beerman462 said:
Nah. The rules are the rules. People only bitch when they don't go their way. It's a tie because both teams failed clinch a victory in regulation. As others have said the rules are such to keep the game from going too long. I was pissed at Cards D for giving up 7 points with 5 secs left in the exact same fasion that GB beat the Lions. Packers fans should be pissed their D left our highest performing player undefended in OT where they know how high the stakes are. Blame your D not the rules.
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I'm not even a Packers fan, I didn't care who won yesterday, so your argument is garbage. The rules are just terrible and always have been.
 
A

AngmarsKing701

Member
Tom Penny said:
Since 01 Pats are 8-6 when they throw 75% of the time.the rest of the league is 38-476...
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That's what dink and dunk and underneath rubs
i.e., pass interference
will do for you. Now tell me what Brady's percentage is on throws beyond 20 yards.

There's no doubt the Pats' offense is a well-oiled machine. They're methodic. They'll wear down defenses with all the underneath crap. Brady only has to be accurate between 1 and 10 yards out.

It's also boring as fuck to watch. It's like watching the gears of a clock tick. I'd rather see the mad scrambling, take shots downfield on almost every drive kind of offense, but those are getting rarer in the NFL.
 
Goro Majima

Goro Majima

Kitty Genovese Member
I don't understand the controversy.

The better team won and you're crazy if you think McCarthy wouldn't have been roasted for going for two.

Also the coin flip is a non issue. Don't care about that at all.
 
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