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NFL Week 10 |OT| Wish You Were Here
- Thread starter Buckethead
- Start date
my name is actually Greg
We are in TMZ mode over here. Honestly I thought the whole hitting his mom with Lupus and attacking the cops over a cartoon was a joke but it is actually real?
I refuse to believe that purse-lupus-thing isn't someone's re-narration of the events. The first sentence alone makes it unbelieveable to me.
The_Darkest_Red
Member
oh my
who dat
Dutch Gronk
Banned
Then who added me on Facebook?!
Wow, what a fine avatar you are sporting there my friend! Tell me, when was the moment you knew that you were a true Panthers fan?
I always knew you and eznark were soulmates.
It beats the hell out of the alternatives.
Unfortunately it will be for naught but whatever.
BaltimoreLarry
Member
And my name isn't Larry.
Newton Crosby
Banned
Yeah, it's Joe F.
If it helps you guys getting closer to a multi-party system, I won't hate.
Libertarian seems way too close to Ayn Rand for me to not be scared.
GraveRobberX
Platinum Trophy: Learned to Shit While Upright Again.
I might be a Trophy Addict also Free snes!
storybook77
Member
I voted for Stein.
If Rosie had won, would you have voted for her?
I never have the guts to ask people foe money, hell even my parents used to sneak money in my book bag. Then again I don't know how I would react if i needed money for my love ones health.
I used to work two jobs and tutor but still used to feel very uncomfortable during my undergrad and grad college days if my dad ever wanted to pay for anything.
my first issue with him was that he won't return money back to people who help save his mother life, before enjoying his addiction. Even though it was 5 months apart.
I personally feel he lied. in US you get automatic qualification for dialysis via medicare if income ever is an issue. hence, being in medical field I never bought that BS reasoning.
http://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/10128.pdf
Unless , they choose home service, then that's there own choice and not about getting treatment or not
I used to work two jobs and tutor but still used to feel very uncomfortable during my undergrad and grad college days if my dad ever wanted to pay for anything.
my first issue with him was that he won't return money back to people who help save his mother life, before enjoying his addiction. Even though it was 5 months apart.
I personally feel he lied. in US you get automatic qualification for dialysis via medicare if income ever is an issue. hence, being in medical field I never bought that BS reasoning.
http://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/10128.pdf
Unless , they choose home service, then that's there own choice and not about getting treatment or not
How could I not be a fan of such a mature upstanding citizen. Who else will my kids model themselves after when they don't get their way?
storybook77
Member
Negative sir.
some other good-looking, camel-riding adventurer
I have it on good authority that this kiss was directly blown to mr2xxx
That is sexual assault my friend, not a kiss. I hope the authorities lock him up with his big brother from another mother, Ben.
:lol
All I can say is I told you so.
Somewhere SNES is smiling. And it isn't a refractory period smile after looking at some WiiU videos. This smile is about karma and justice about his ban.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
You don't analyze the model by just looking at who wins although I'm sure thats what the media will do.
but isn't his actual methodology proprietary? I really haven't paid much attention to it but it seems like it's quite the internet furor
Pundits spew bullshit and are consistently wrong: no consequence.
Statistician aggregates polling data and samples based on demographics to create a projection: WHAT IS THIS BLACK MAGIC?
Silver used to work for Baseball Prospectus. He's celebrated 'cause 538 got 49 out of 50 states correct in 2008, and he backdated it to 2000 and 2004 to judge it. Pretty accurate.
The thing that people don't seem to get is that it's just his model. He's not even putting his opinion out there, and he repeatedly says, "this is a projection based on the polls, not a judgment of any sort."
Only if you think Americans are just as likely to vote Republican as Democrat and that the choice is entirely random.
Futurevoid
Member
That's a bit of an oversimplification in that it doesn't take into account the electoral college, the different pathways to the presidency when taking swing states into account and the massive amounts of polling that happens in the months leading up the election. Silver's a statistician when all is said and done and the referendum is on whether the methodology he uses to project the winner is correct or not and whether the underlying math is "sound".squicken said:
The math was sound in 2008 but at the time Silver was a small unknown guy who didn't get anywhere near the level of national attention he's getting in this election. The fact that he's been calling it for Obama for months now is also making him easy fodder for the right who are desperate to disprove him.
This shouldn't be a surprise.
okay but if it's all sound don't we need lots of samples to bear that out. so he worked in baseball. there's like 500 plate appearances a year. i'm not saying he's wrong, i just need a little more info before i accept it as much as everyone else
as far as the peculiarities of the electrical college, you could look at realclearpolitics and see which way the wind was blowing today
as far as the peculiarities of the electrical college, you could look at realclearpolitics and see which way the wind was blowing today
The thing is 538 was super popular with politicos and college kids back in 2008. The fact that he was bought by big bad librul New York Times (and apparently the fact that he looks like a dork: there was some nitwit that called him "womanly") makes him an easy target.
I took a poli-sci class on Presidential elections/history with a former Nixon and Clinton aide that year. Most informative and timely class I ever took. We spent the first ten minutes of each Monday going over where the money was going. Halfway through October, all the money (banks, insurance) was overwhelmingly going to Barack. Industry likes a winner.
He was super, super transparent in 2008 about his methods. I haven't paid as much attention to 538 this year. But you can only be transparent to a point. It's his breadmaker, after all. Actually, what am I saying, he made bank when Baseball Prospectus sold to Stats, INC.
*Futurevoid to the rescue. Looks like he aggregated everything he said in '08 in one nice page.
I took a poli-sci class on Presidential elections/history with a former Nixon and Clinton aide that year. Most informative and timely class I ever took. We spent the first ten minutes of each Monday going over where the money was going. Halfway through October, all the money (banks, insurance) was overwhelmingly going to Barack. Industry likes a winner.
So his model takes a composite of state-by-state polls. For states, such as, Maine that might not have as many polls, he uses polling data from areas with similar demographics to fill in the gaps. He also weighs the polls based on historical accuracy (which, IMO, seems like the most variable factor).
He was super, super transparent in 2008 about his methods. I haven't paid as much attention to 538 this year. But you can only be transparent to a point. It's his breadmaker, after all. Actually, what am I saying, he made bank when Baseball Prospectus sold to Stats, INC.
*Futurevoid to the rescue. Looks like he aggregated everything he said in '08 in one nice page.
Futurevoid
Member
So take a look at his methodology and make that decision yourself.squicken said:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
Silver doesn't even care whether you (or anyone) think he's right or wrong. Well I'm sure he does to an extent
) ) but as noted, he puts the information out there not as an opinion supporting a specific candidate for political gain but as purely statistical data. You can decide what to do with it if you feel the methodology is sound.The idea that a statistical model could be partisan is what's stupid. It's numbers! How does Silver possibly gain from having a flawed model?
I imagine it's people ticked off at the notion that the election actually hasn't been as close as they'd like to think. I was back in Atlanta two weeks ago, and...the shit I heard on the radio. Hermain Cain apparently does a daily bit where he yells for a solid 7 minutes about something.
Apparently the Obama administration makes it impossible to fire employees for not being courteous.
I imagine it's people ticked off at the notion that the election actually hasn't been as close as they'd like to think. I was back in Atlanta two weeks ago, and...the shit I heard on the radio. Hermain Cain apparently does a daily bit where he yells for a solid 7 minutes about something.
Apparently the Obama administration makes it impossible to fire employees for not being courteous.
Alligatorjandro
Banned
my head hurts
Dutch Gronk
Banned
Buckethead
Banned
My 360 is dying.
I have to use the dashboard >> my games to launch anything.
Ghetto.
I have to use the dashboard >> my games to launch anything.
Ghetto.
360 is dead to me after the first one died. I suggest you do the same.
Futurevoid
Member
Indeed. The fact that he's gotten the level of attention he has is both a blessing and a curse. If he's right, his statistical model stands to gain that much more attention post election and will no doubt get plenty of attention come the next presidential election cycle. If he's way off, credibility goes right down the toilet...eznark said:
The day after the election is always pretty hilarious.
The old ladies at my office will be fucking pissed if Obama wins. And everyone else will be pissed if Romney wins.
If Obama wins the coverage from Fox is going to be amazing must watch tv for the next week. No idea how they respond if he wins. They spent the last 4 years trying hard to get him out of office. No idea which direction they will go after this election if Obama wins.
I think you are throwing your vote away if you vote for Johnson, but honestly I am annoyed that I don't get to vote for a candidate who will ever offer up the choice of cutting the military and stopping us from getting involved in foreign wars and instead investing that money in infrastructure. The cheeseheads in wisconsin have gone long enough with dial up and instead of spending trillions bombing brown people maybe we should spend some of that money at home and get those Packer fans teeth and FIOS (I would also like FIOS).
The old ladies at my office will be fucking pissed if Obama wins. And everyone else will be pissed if Romney wins.
If Obama wins the coverage from Fox is going to be amazing must watch tv for the next week. No idea how they respond if he wins. They spent the last 4 years trying hard to get him out of office. No idea which direction they will go after this election if Obama wins.
I think you are throwing your vote away if you vote for Johnson, but honestly I am annoyed that I don't get to vote for a candidate who will ever offer up the choice of cutting the military and stopping us from getting involved in foreign wars and instead investing that money in infrastructure. The cheeseheads in wisconsin have gone long enough with dial up and instead of spending trillions bombing brown people maybe we should spend some of that money at home and get those Packer fans teeth and FIOS (I would also like FIOS).
I have my politics but I'm not dogging on it b/c I don't like or like what I read. I just don't think he gets validated on predicting two elections, elections most people could have called the day before they took place.
slightconfuse
Banned
Sean PAyton is going to coach the eagle next season