I think getting past the first round of the playoffs is "for real" since you can get there in odd ways that don't feel legit. So yes, to me, if the NFC West winner wins their first playoff game, then that means they're "for real"....for the playoffs. Especially considering that much of professional football is getting hot at the right time.
Actually it'd be weird to see the meltdowns if a 6-10 NFC West team wins the Super Bowl. So if the Packers don't get into the playoffs, this might be my backup plan to root for :lol