• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NHL February 2015 |OT| The next Maple Leafs goal will be scored by Connor McDavid

C

Coldnoodle

Member
tumblr_nir0nbPJYG1s5zc6eo1_500.gif
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Acid08 said:
how the fuck

even when Rinne isn't stopping the puck they don't go in
Click to expand...

He was great but even if they did get a couple past him, the Sharks still would have lost.

You are right in that the Sharks D needs work. Stalock missed at least one or maybe 2 saves that he should have got but many were also not his fault. All in all a very weak game by the Sharks. But the Preds are, literally, the best team in the league (really!).
 
R

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
Cats only 2 points out of the playoffs with the same amount of GP compared to the Bruins. I'd be okay with losing to Florida tomorrow if it helps bump Boston out of the playoffs.
 
M

Merguson

Banned
Damien Cox said:
Leaf fans have to steel themselves for 3-5 yrs out of playoffs, and have to understand can't really evaluate any drafted player for 5 yrs.
Click to expand...

Not that we don't have a lot of experience in with not making the playoffs in a long stretch or anything.
 
SolidSnakeUS

SolidSnakeUS

Member
Red_Man said:
Cats only 2 points out of the playoffs with the same amount of GP compared to the Bruins. I'd be okay with losing to Florida tomorrow if it helps bump Boston out of the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Funny thing is, the Flyers should of taken advantage over the easy schedule over the past week or two to catch up to the Bruins, but looking over the next few weeks, it's going to be tough as shit and if anything, going to fall back more in the standings. Werenski here we come.
 
R

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
SolidSnakeUS said:
Funny thing is, the Flyers should of taken advantage over the easy schedule over the past week or two to catch up to the Bruins, but looking over the next few weeks, it's going to be tough as shit and if anything, going to fall back more in the standings. Werenski here we come.
Click to expand...
Mason injury really came at the worst time for them.
 
Z

zroid

Banned
Merguson said:
Not that we don't have a lot of experience in with not making the playoffs in a long stretch or anything.
Click to expand...

No kidding, it's a heck of a lot better to suck when you know management at least has a vision of where it wants to be, as opposed to suck when the management thinks the team is good enough but just doesn't have enough compete level.
 
SolidSnakeUS

SolidSnakeUS

Member
Red_Man said:
Mason injury really came at the worst time for them.
Click to expand...

Mason being hurt. Only really one line scoring. Horrid defense and horrid coaching choices are fucking us up bad. You have stats like this from last night:

1st line a combined +34 Corsi.

4th line a combined +5.

4th line with 100% OZ starts.

White and Umberger also got 100% OZ starts.

Flyers this season:

1-4 vs Columbus
0-3 vs Rangers
0-3 vs Islanders
 
Z

zroid

Banned
Jumbo did a long form interview with Sportsnet Magazine about stripping him of the C... that should be... interesting
 
C

calder

Member
Stafford is day to day, Buff up to forward until he's back. :\

Klingberg called up from AHL (not Armia, probably for the best).


PATRICK WILLIAMS @pwilliamsNHL
Maurice: Perreault has a "significant" lower-case injury. Not likely to return before end of regular season.
Click to expand...

everythingisterriblegexd3.gif
 
C

calder

Member
I missed this last week, but if anyone is interested here is Corey Pronman's ESPN Insider deep dive on the Leafs upcoming first round (third overall) pick.


There is no more contentious prospect in this year’s NHL draft than Kingston Frontenacs winger Lawson Crouse, who is very likely to be selected in the top 10.

Any discussion that involves Crouse becomes divisive almost immediately. It’s not because of a forged birth certificate allegation, or because of his nationality, or that he’s been injured the whole season or that his position tends to be risky to project; and he’s not a KHL flight risk.

No, this debate is about a much simpler issue: Crouse’s production in junior -- or a lack thereof relative to most elite CHL prospects.

Even with that in mind, Crouse is a very good prospect, and deserves to be taken in the top 10 this summer, regardless of his lackluster production on the score sheet.

NHL draft prospect analytics

In the past five years, the public demand for and usage of advanced statistics have risen considerably in hockey; not surprisingly, that has spilled over into draft and prospect analysis. It’s been no secret that there is a significant relationship between scoring in junior and NHL success. A bare-bones study of just points per game of first-year, draft-eligible CHL players shows a 40 percent correlation between junior-level scoring and NHL games played. In other words, this 0.4 correlation means that 16 percent of NHL games played are thanks to a player’s scoring rate in junior.

Where does the other 84 percent come from? Well, it could be attained in part with a bulkier statistical algorithm. And scouts also identify particular cases that deviate from the production.

But, there’s also a lot that prevents stats from fully predicting the future of NHL prospects. For one, luck is a major factor in the NHL draft, in that teams rarely show the ability to reproduce drafting results season to season at any notable level. We see sample size issues, as well: When trying to use an AHL season to predict production the next season in the NHL, that one season of data can account for only about one-third of the translation to the NHL. This is important because most CHL players don’t get a lengthy sample to be evaluated statistically before they are drafted.

As is the case with NHLers, bare-bones offensive stats can miss critical context, such as how a player is deployed by the coach, defensive value and luck.

Most of the more complex algorithms don’t significantly outperform the NHL teams in terms of drafting skill, and all tend to hover around the same output level. The key is that the stats find different good players than the scouts do (while also whiffing on different players). The key difference tends to be assessing small forwards better.

Given the large body of work showing the relationship between junior scoring and NHL success, any evaluator would be a fool not to pay serious attention to the numbers. However, one has to be careful about putting too much emphasis on a player’s numbers. In baseball, this issue is sometimes explained via the credo “you can’t scout a box score.” Falling in (or out of) love with a prospect because of his stat line, without giving the particularized evaluation and analysis that you have to do for each case, is a major mistake.

Lawson Crouse’s case

NHL teams certainly look at a player’s production closely. Teams have wrapped up their midterm scouting meetings the past few weeks, and a number of NHL talent evaluators (but not all) have told me that Crouse’s production was a negative on him during their evaluations.

One NHL scout said on this issue, "Ideally, you want guys like [Mitch] Marner and Dylan Strome, where the production backs up what you are seeing on the ice. We all understand that stats aren’t the end-all be-all, but it does matter."

The following table shows data from the past 10 seasons in the OHL and includes players who were a top-10 draft pick and played in the OHL in their 17-year-old season. 2015 draft-eligible players are bolded, and the stats are as of games ending Feb. 8. Note that the goals created (GC) metric cuts out 50 percent of the value given to assists:

Code: 
Age-17 Season Production Of Future Top-10 Picks
Player 	Games 	Goals 	Points 	Pts/Gm 	GC/Gm
Connor McDavid 	30 	25 	76 	2.53 	1.68
Sam Gagner 	53 	35 	118 	2.23 	1.44
Mitch Marner 	47 	36 	94 	2.00 	1.38
John Tavares 	59 	40 	118 	2.00 	1.34
Steven Stamkos 	61 	58 	105 	1.72 	1.34
Dylan Strome 	50 	33 	94 	1.88 	1.27
Tyler Seguin 	63 	48 	106 	1.68 	1.22
Nail Yakupov 	65 	49 	101 	1.55 	1.15
Sam Bennett 	57 	36 	91 	1.60 	1.11
Jeff Skinner 	64 	50 	90 	1.41 	1.09
Ryan Strome 	65 	33 	106 	1.63 	1.07
Taylor Hall 	63 	38 	90 	1.43 	1.02
Michael Dal Colle 	67 	39 	95 	1.42 	1.00
Matt Duchene 	57 	31 	79 	1.39 	0.96
Logan Couture 	54 	26 	78 	1.44 	0.96
Cody Hodgson 	68 	40 	85 	1.25 	0.92
Sean Monahan 	62 	33 	78 	1.26 	0.90
Mark Scheifele 	65 	22 	75 	1.15 	0.75
Jordan Staal 	68 	28 	68 	1.00 	0.71
Bo Horvat 	67 	33 	61 	0.91 	0.70
Lawson Crouse 	37 	19 	30 	0.81 	0.66
Nazem Kadri 	68 	25 	65 	0.96 	0.66
Nick Ritchie 	41 	18 	35 	0.85 	0.65
Josh Bailey 	69 	22 	61 	0.88 	0.60
Gabriel Landeskog 	61 	24 	46 	0.75 	0.57
Alex Galchenyuk 	2 	0 	0 	0.00 	0.00


The obvious outliers here are Sam Gagner, who played on one of the greatest CHL lines in modern times, and Alex Galchenyuk, who played in just two games in his age-17 season. For the most part, sorting by GC per game seems to show a reasonable picture of how prospects have developed.

What offensive stats obviously fail to capture is defensive value. If you see some of the highly successful, low-scoring forwards from that chart, such as Gabriel Landeskog and Jordan Staal, another success story such as Ryan O'Reilly (drafted outside the top 10) and potential future success such as Bo Horvat, the common theme is their great all-around play in junior; for the first three, this type of well-rounded play was evident almost immediately in the NHL. This is relevant because of Crouse’s significant defensive value.

Some might argue against Crouse, saying this is the same old routine of old, cranky scouts falling in love with "size" and grit”; that an NHL evaluator will see a big player, and focus too much on that attribute instead of the other data that predict success more often, such as production. I won’t pretend that bias is never in play, but it’s unlikely to be a huge influence, and it’s too simplistic in describing this particular case because Crouse is a multidimensional player.

[+] EnlargeLawson Crouse
Claus Andersen/Getty ImagesPlaying for Canada as an underage (or double underage) player is a rare feat.
Crouse has many positives to his game other than “size.” He skates well in general, and very well for a big man. The same can be said for his puck skills, even if he’s not a dynamic offensive player. He’s a very advanced two-way thinker who is one of the best defensive forwards available in this year’s draft class. And yes, he has an elite physical game, as well, thanks to his size, strength, work ethic and physicality that allows him to win a lot of battles.

ESPN colleague Keith Law once wrote that the point of scouting is to develop a mental database over time to identify trends in players, as well as particular skills and physical tools that have predictive value. The idea is that scouting hundreds if not thousands of players during a long time period creates value for the scout in identifying these particular cases. Although scouting data might not be binary like certain stats, it can still be used in a predictive manner. For example: A player who skates at X level, with Y hands and Z hockey sense tends to slot into a certain role in the NHL.

In the case of Crouse, the scouting analysis shows us that we have a winger who has skating and puck skills that are good (but not great), is great defensively, has high-end hockey sense and has an elite physical game. That combination of skills projects a reasonable ceiling of that player being an above-average scoring NHLer who clearly isn’t top-line caliber in scoring but plays very well versus the opponent’s best forwards and can be one of a team’s top penalty killers. If that outcome is realized, this is a very valuable asset for any NHL team and certainly for any of the teams looking to be picking in the top 10 of this year's draft.

Crouse has also shown he can play well to earn his accolades. He played his way onto the under-18 team as an underage player last spring and onto the top line of the Ivan Hlinka tournament team and was a rare double underager for Canada’s under-20 team at the world junior championship. It’s very rare for Canadian prospects to do all of the above on merit, but he has always earned what he has received in this regard.

Crouse is worthy of a top-10 pick

It’s the job of the evaluator to understand the statistical evidence, be able to properly identify when a particular case differs from the long-term trends and balance these competing factors. Lawson Crouse is one of those cases when the balance has to be done very carefully.

The lack of production this season is a notable concern, and it keeps me from pushing him into the top 5-7 range of my rankings. But balanced against the merits of his physical abilities, work ethic and hockey IQ, he remains a great prospect.

Any argument now that Crouse is not a first-round prospect -- or even a top-20 pick -- is entirely unreasonable. I have him slotted as the 10th-best prospect in the draft, and there’s a reasonable case to be made for his being taken even earlier than that.
Click to expand...
 
S

Samyy

Member
CreeperBlocks said:
I should give everyone a heads up. I won't really be here next week because I have Jaw/wisdom Teeth surgery. It's gonna suck. :/
Click to expand...

That sucks man, hope everything goes well.
I had all my wisdom teeth taken out a few years ago, thankfully my surgeon was a genius and I never had any swelling/pain.
 
S

ShaneB

Member
CreeperBlocks said:
I should give everyone a heads up. I won't really be here next week because I have Jaw/wisdom Teeth surgery. It's gonna suck. :/
Click to expand...

Have fun!

Wisdom teeth is different for everyone. For me I was in agony and barely ate anything for a few days. Other people get it done and are out eating steaks the same day.
 
Z

zroid

Banned
CreeperBlocks said:
I should give everyone a heads up. I won't really be here next week because I have Jaw/wisdom Teeth surgery. It's gonna suck. :/
Click to expand...

bummer, hope it goes smoothly

I never needed to get my wisdom teeth dealt with since when I was a kid I had my 4 farthest back molars removed. That was shitty but it was necessary for my orthodontics to work.

But now the teeth are growing unimpeded so that's cool
 
S

Solo

Member
Another pretty sad year for scoring. Top scorer (Kane) in the NHL is on pace for only 91 points and only 2 players are on pace for 50 goals.
 
C

Calamari41

41 > 38
CreeperBlocks said:
I should give everyone a heads up. I won't really be here next week because I have Jaw/wisdom Teeth surgery. It's gonna suck. :/
Click to expand...

Enjoy the pain killers. If you want a good time, do what I did and play through Silent Hill 3 while hopped up on Vicodin and with a mouth full of dried blood. Really enhances the atmosphere.
 
M

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Shocking news out of Westchester today: Cam Talbot gets the start tomorrow vs. the Canucks.

More importantly, Henrik Lundqvist was on the ice prior to practice today.
 
S

Socreges

Banned
Got an iPad Air 2 through work. My first Apple product ever.

What do I do with it?

I've got an OPO and a small laptop so it seems kinda...pointless for every day use. Beautiful screen, though.
 
S

Samyy

Member
Socreges said:
Got an iPad Air 2 through work. My first Apple product ever.

What do I do with it?

I've got an OPO and a small laptop so it seems kinda...pointless for every day use. Beautiful screen, though.
Click to expand...

All I use my iPad for is browsing gaf/twitter during hockey games :lol
Also watching Netflix in bed

IMO iPads are pretty useless given who big phones are nowadays. After I get an iPhone 6 Plus (or 6s Plus) I'm getting rid of mine.
 
C

calder

Member
Socreges said:
Got an iPad Air 2 through work. My first Apple product ever.

What do I do with it?

I've got an OPO and a small laptop so it seems kinda...pointless for every day use. Beautiful screen, though.
Click to expand...

You sit on the couch with it in your hands so you can watch hockey while still refreshing twitter/GAF/sportsclubstats/TSN every few seconds. Also, at night you can easily watch netflix and shit lying in bed for hours guaranteeing you never have a good nights sleep again.
 
I

imBask

Banned
Socreges said:
Got an iPad Air 2 through work. My first Apple product ever.

What do I do with it?

I've got an OPO and a small laptop so it seems kinda...pointless for every day use. Beautiful screen, though.
Click to expand...

netflix in bed
netflix while pooping
browsing instead of watching the game

oh and when they'll release iOs 9 you DON'T UPDATE YOUR IPAD. It'll turn your old ipad into a slow piece of trash that'll make you want the brand new shiny ipad air 3 or 4
 
C

calder

Member
Samyy said:
IMO iPads are pretty useless given who big phones are nowadays. After I get an iPhone 6 Plus (or 6s Plus) I'm getting rid of mine.
Click to expand...

It baffles me that people would use their phones for that shit at home if they have a tablet. I never even look at my phone when I'm at home, the screen is just too small (even if I had a bigger phone).
 
A

Acid08

Banned
zroid said:
Jumbo did a long form interview with Sportsnet Magazine about stripping him of the C... that should be... interesting
Click to expand...
*sigh*

And reading quotes from TMac today, this team is just a fucking mess. The coach and players want to compete but management seems to have a different idea. Marleau and Jumbo deserve an actual chance at winning. They're not getting one here.

trifelife said:
This GamerGater's student film http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=994163 ayy lmao is this real life
Click to expand...
This is incredible
 
C

Curufinwe

Member
Solo said:
Another pretty sad year for scoring. Top scorer (Kane) in the NHL is on pace for only 91 points and only 2 players are on pace for 50 goals.
Click to expand...

Not enough powerplays. Teams are getting a little over half as many opportunities as they did in 05-06.
 
C

CreeperBlocks

Banned
Calamari41 said:
Enjoy the pain killers. If you want a good time, do what I did and play through Silent Hill 3 while hopped up on Vicodin and with a mouth full of dried blood. Really enhances the atmosphere.
Click to expand...

I think I'll be in so much pain... The Doc is doing the Jaw Surgery and Wisdom Teeth at the same time. I'll be drinking chicken shakes for a few months.. Bleh.. Well it's gonna be worth it my teeth won't be fucked up anymore.
 
F

fallout

Member
Ugh. Losing Stafford and Perreault really hurts. I know it doesn't sound like much to fans of most other teams, but the Jets just don't have the depth in the bottom 6 to fill those holes as easily. Thankfully there's always Buff.

calder said:
It baffles me that people would use their phones for that shit at home if they have a tablet. I never even look at my phone when I'm at home, the screen is just too small (even if I had a bigger phone).
Click to expand...
91sn32Q.jpg
 
B

bonesmccoy

Banned
That Pronman piece killed my confidence in Pronman. Thanks, calder.

fallout said:
Ugh. Losing Stafford and Perreault really hurts. I know it doesn't sound like much to fans of most other teams, but the Jets just don't have the depth in the bottom 6 to fill those holes as easily. Thankfully there's always Bozak.
Click to expand...

FTFY
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

STEAM Next Fest February 2023 |OT| Finally monseur, a waffer thin mint
|OT| Event
35
2K
hlm666 replied
New Games with Gold for February 2023 Revealed
News Cringe Hardware 2
52
4K
mrmustard replied
NHL 22 Debut Frostbite Trailer Reveals Release Date and Cover Athlete
News Trailer
22
2K
IbizaPocholo replied
David Ayers 42 year old Emergency goalie wins NHL game.
16
1K
StreetsofBeige replied
  • x2
  • Locked
Cyberpunk 2077 |OT| The Future Is Now
|OT| 97 98 99 100 101
5K
328K
EviLore replied
Top Bottom