Overall, I'd say the 2016 NHL draft class is average. The very top of the class has three top-tier prospects -- which is better than average -- with the rest of the first round being standard. The depth in lower rounds is below-average. Longtime readers know I can get a little eccentric with the lower portion of my draft boards, but this was the hardest tail end for me to sort out in a few years. There's a drop off in talent after prospects No. 2 and No. 3, before the gradual decline in marginal prospect value throughout the rest of the class.
The information used to develop these rankings and profiles are done through a variety of methods. I've seen a large chunk of these players live in the past 12 months. I supplement that with discussions with scouts, executives and other hockey people for evaluation and background information, and also perform statistical research and watch video of the players. While discussions with others take place, the rankings are completely my own, and are done to reflect my opinion of who I believe the top prospects in the draft class are, and may differ from the industry.
1. Patrik Laine, LW, Tampere (Liiga)
DOB: 4/19/98 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 206
GP: 46 | G: 17 | A: 16
Laine is everything you want in a high-skill power forward. First, he's built like a truck at 6-foot-4, 206 pounds, with broad shoulders and great core strength. It's a joy to watch film of Laine shrugging off checks left and right, and easily winning loose puck battles. He's equally adept at being a playmaker as he is being a goal scorer. Laine's offensive IQ is high-end, bordering on elite. He's a very creative puck handler who anticipates pressure well, and knows how to create space for himself. He moves the puck quickly with few errors.
Off the puck, he finds the open seams well, and can launch a scoring chance from almost anywhere on the ice, having probably the best shot in this class. Laine's skating is his one notable flaw, although he's gotten a little quicker from last season. He's average in that area, and I don't think he's going to jet past NHL defensemen. Overall, he's a special forward, someone who could be an elite scoring power winger in the NHL for the next decade.
Ranking explanation: We're gonna need more than a paragraph on this one. Click here to read my case for Laine over Auston Matthews.
2. Auston Matthews, C, Zug (NLA)
DOB: 9/17/97 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 210
GP: 36 | G: 24 | A: 22
Teams dream about getting a legit No. 1 center like Matthews when picking at the top of the draft. A 6-foot-2, 210-pound pivot with a skill level that is off the charts, he's also got professional experience to boot, and he's been making Swiss cheese out of his opponents in the NLA. Matthews is a magician with the puck; not one of those pretend magicians you'll find in Las Vegas, but like the ones you read about in fiction novels. He is so coordinated and creative that it's nearly impossible to strip him of the puck. Combining that with an incredible touch that can have him effortlessly saucer pass across the rink onto the blade, or place it on a shot wherever he wants to, and he's a nightmare for teams to defend. He's a very good skater, and while he's not among the very top tier of the class in terms of speed, he can explode down the ice with anyone.
Matthews isn't perfect. His real weakness is when the offense isn't flowing through him. He's not a really physical player who will grind for pucks along the wall, nor is he some sort of defensive stalwart. Matthews still uses his big frame to win pucks and competes well on the ice in every zone, but the team drafting him must be realistic about what he's going to be in terms of the gritty areas of the game.
Ranking explanation: Jesse Puljujarvi is a fantastic prospect, one of the best under-18 players to ever don the Finland jersey. His 16- and 17-year-old performances at the IIHF World Junior Championship (WJC) are among the all-time greats. He's big, skilled, fast and advanced in his play. He's just not at the same level as Matthews and Laine. I can't think of one attribute he's substantially better at than Matthews, except for possibly his physical play; he's quicker than Laine and a little better defensively. They have him beat in every other area, either marginally or notably.
3. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (Liiga)
DOB: 5/7/98 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 203
GP: 50 | G: 13 | A: 15
Puljujarvi is one of the most exciting prospects Finland has produced. He's a big, explosive winger, who was the second-highest scoring 17-year-old ever at the WJC, tied with Eric Lindros and a point behind Jaromir Jagr. He's an unbelievable skater for a 6-foot-4 player, having a great top gear and a really fluid stride. He's not that physically aggressive, but he closes on guys so well that he pressures and wins battles effectively. Puljujarvi shows a high-skill level, a plus shot and high-end hockey IQ. He is constantly around the puck and setting up his teammates.
He's not quite defensively sound yet, but he shows effort in that area, and with proper development, we could see that area of his game grow. To get an idea of what a competitor he is, a few hours before the gold medal game at the IIHF under-18 world championship, Puljujarvi was sick in bed. He then went out and carried his team to a championship, scoring a hat trick. (thanks to Twitter user Tuomo Vartianen for pointing this out). At his ultimate upside, he could be one of the more dynamic scorers in the NHL.
Ranking explanation: This point has a drop off from Puljujarvi to the next group of forwards in Clayton Keller, Alexander Nylander and Matthew Tkachuk. None of these alternatives has the excellent resume or the dynamic all-around tool kit of Puljujarvi. Keller's skill is about the same, and he is a better playmaker, but Puljujarvi is a monster standing next to him, and is a better goal scorer, too. Nylander can't match his physical dominance or shot, and Tkachuk doesn't skate as well. They all may be better at one or two things than Puljujarvi, but then it's either a push or a slant to Puljujarvi in every other attribute.
4. Clayton Keller, C, USA U18 (USHL)
DOB: 6/29/98 | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 168
GP: 55 | G: 33 | A: 60
One of the best players ever to participate at the USA Hockey National Team Development Program (USNTDP), Keller put up monstrous numbers between his USHL, collegiate and international performances. He's a complete offensive player who seems to generate chances and display distinct puck-moving abilities whenever he takes a shift. Keller has an explosive first step and an above-average top gear. He's not an incredible skater for a smaller guy, but he still skates very well. Keller handles the puck at a top level, too, but his clear best trait is his hockey sense. He just makes so many good, high-level decisions with and without the puck that allow his team to maintain possession and get shooting lanes. Keller never seems rattled with the puck, and makes the right plays seem easy.
While not a defensive stalwart, Keller has shown decent defensive prowess this season. His size and physical game limitations are obvious issues, but there is a lot to like in his game other than that.
Ranking explanation: One could argue the stats favor Pierre-Luc Dubois over Keller, as the former has been a scoring and shots machine in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), even though Keller was among the best scorers in USNTDP history. However, Keller shows a different level of skill. His vision is much better, he's a better skater and puck handler, and while Dubois is bigger and a better defensive player, Keller was no slouch defensively. He was often the first player coach Danton Cole sent over the boards in a critical defensive situation. Compared to Tkachuk, Keller is nearly a full year younger than him, so I almost take a glance at Tkachuk during his time in the NTDP last season versus Keller now, and it's a no-brainer in Keller's favor. Obviously, one has to consider what Tkachuk has done since then, but he didn't have an overwhelmingly great season, nor do his tools grade at such a higher level than Keller's, other than his physical game. Nylander and Keller have similar skill sets, but Keller is a competent center and better defensively.
5. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
DOB: 6/24/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 201
GP: 62 | G: 42 | A: 57
Dubois was one of the best players in the QMJHL this season and nearly made Canada's WJC team. I've never watched Dubois play and come away thinking he's the best skater or the best puck handler in a given match, but he always makes a positive contribution. He's incredibly well-rounded, though. Dubois can play both the wing and center effectively, but is more comfortable on the wing. He's a skilled scorer with very good two-way hockey IQ who can flash high-end vision.
He's a very physically developed player, who is strong, competitive on the ice, drives to the dirty areas, and is committed to his fitness off the ice. Whenever Dubois gets into a 1-on-1 battle, he tends to come out with the puck. He's not the fastest skater but he doesn't slug around the ice, either. He projects as an NHL forward who can be slotted into a variety of roles, and has a low-risk factor on his projection.
Ranking explanation: I had Tkachuk at the No. 5 spot for a decent chunk of the season, until Dubois switched to playing center full time for Cape Breton and doing it well. A decent component of this ranking is projecting that Dubois will end up an NHL center, which is something that not every NHL scout I've talked to believes in. Like in the Keller case, Tkachuk is notably older than Dubois, and has more experience, but I don't see as much of a skill gap. In fact, one could argue Tkachuk has a slightly higher skill level and better vision. Skating is pretty much a push as well. However, Dubois is a much more effective defensive player and a little better in his physical play. Nylander wasn't as dominant this season in the OHL as Dubois was in the QMJHL, however I see the argument his pure upside is higher. I don't see the offensive ceiling between the two being dramatically different, but Dubois has the much better two-way game.
6. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL)
DOB: 12/11/97 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 200
GP: 57 | G: 30 | A: 77
Keith Tkachuk's son has been a standout for years at multiple levels. He was great last season in the USHL and with the USNTDP, was a top player at the world under-18 championship, and a top player this season in the OHL. He is a multi-dimensional scoring winger. You talk to any scout about Tkachuk, they come back raving about his hockey IQ. He has great vision and offensive creativity, and makes quick, precise decisions with the puck. He can dangle defensemen, and create offense out of nothing, but Tkachuk is also a relentless worker. He wins more than his fair share of battles, and is his father's son on some days, being a pain in the rear for many defenders and goalies.
His speed isn't at the same level as his hands and vision. He's not slow, but he's certainly not a top-end speedster, either. Tkachuk can also get caught cheating a little defensively, an area of his game that he'll need to tighten up.
Ranking explanation: I flip-flopped on Tkachuk vs. Nylander probably every week in the lead up to this list, and it wasn't until Tkachuk's extremely strong showing in the OHL postseason tilted the needle a bit. I've talked to scouts who strongly believe in one or the other, but for me this is a pure coin flip. They are both very skilled and intelligent players who have produced in the OHL and internationally. Nylander is a little better with the puck, is a better skater, and also has played one fewer season than Tkachuk. However, Tkachuk is a little smarter, much tougher in puck battles and has been a more consistent force in terms of controlling puck possession during the past two years. His ability to consistently elevate his game at any level makes me lean to Tkachuk.
7. Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
DOB: 3/2/98 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 180
GP: 57 | G: 28 | A: 47
Brother of Leafs prospect William Nylander and son of former NHLer Michael Nylander, Alexander was one of the top scorers in the OHL this season, and was one of the top under-18 scorers ever at the WJC. His skill level and his offensive hockey sense are elite. Nylander is able to think the game so quickly, and dominate possession whenever he gets near the puck. He sees options developing even without directly looking down the lanes, and is able to create space for himself. He's got guts with the puck, sometimes putting the puck in risky spots, but overall he makes plays few other forwards do.
Nylander's speed is not elite, but it's certainly above-average and flashes a grade above on top of his being very agile on his edges. He also features a quality wrist shot as well. Nylander's defense could still use work. He's too prone to losing battles and can misplay his position, but he did show significant progression in that area as the season went on, and steadily earned penalty killing time in the second half. He shows strong work ethic, and you can envision him cleaning up that area with proper development.
Ranking explanation: The merits of Nylander or really any of these top forwards over a top defenseman like Olli Juolevi or Jakob Chychrun comes down to two factors: The degree of talent and the value of the position. Forwards are considerably more valuable (
http://es.pn/1DCnuRD) than defensemen in today's NHL, so for a defenseman to overtake a forward on my board, he needs to be notably better in terms of pure talent. When comparing the set of forwards versus the set of defensemen in this year's class, we have several players who have excelled in league play and internationally but haven't dominated. We have players with very good skill sets, but either have a crucial flaw or are not elite across the board. Given these circumstances, always take the forward.
8. Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)
DOB: 5/5/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 182
GP: 57 | G: 9 | A: 33
One of the best defensemen in the OHL this season, Juolevi also recorded the highest point totals ever by an under-18 defenseman at the WJC. Juolevi is a fantastic skater. He exerts very little effort to get up to a dangerous top gear and moves well in all directions. His puck movement is high-end, as he shows calmness, skill and elite hockey sense when he has the puck on his stick. He's able to QB a power play with the best of them, on top of creating dangerous chances in transition. He's also not afraid to take risks, but he's very calculating when he does, and rarely does he hurt his team.
Juolevi's smarts translate to defense. He is always getting his stick on pucks and is an overall reliable defensive player in his positional play. He could stand to bulk up quite a bit, as he has a bit of a beanpole frame (6-foot-2, 182 pounds). However, Juolevi still works hard on the ice to win battles and get to pucks even if his frame isn't ideal for those situations yet.
Ranking explanation: This ranking explanation has two parts. First, the reason for ranking him over Tyson Jost is because there is a notable difference in talent level between the two. Juolevi is a top-of-the-line skater, with elite hockey IQ, and while Jost does a lot of things very well he doesn't have any particular elite attributes.
The second is Juolevi versus the other defensemen available. There is no clear top defenseman in this year's class, but here is why I tilt toward Juolevi. Chychrun and Mikhail Sergachyov have been more productive in the OHL this season, but Juolevi has a better toolkit. He's as good a skater and puck handler as both of them, but the differentiator is hockey sense. While Chychrun and Sergachyov are bigger, better physically and have better shots, Juolevi is much smarter than both, and can control the flow of a game at both ends. Dante Fabbro's hockey IQ is at that level, maybe even higher, but Juolevi is a much better skater. I could see reasonable quibbles over this placement, especially since Juolevi did not dominate the OHL, but he had one of the best WJCs I've ever seen by a 17-year-old defenseman. It's a gut call on my part; your gut may differ.
9. Tyson Jost, C, Penticton (BCHL)
DOB: 3/14/98 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 191
GP: 48 | G: 42 | A: 62
Jost was simply fantastic this season, putting up huge numbers for a 17-year-old in the BCHL, even when you adjust for its lesser league quality. He is a dynamic, athletic center with decent off-the-puck skills as well. Jost is one of the better skaters in his draft class, with an easy, explosive stride whose first few steps will be able to evade NHL checkers. He's a highly-skilled puck handler who can execute high-difficulty plays in tight spaces, as well as make above-average passes.
Jost's defensive play has shown significant improvement during this season. I didn't love his defensive positioning last year, but by the world under-18 championship in the spring, he was arguably Canada's best defensive forward. Bigger players can muscle him off pucks too easily at times. However, Jost does work his tail off, often being one of the hardest working players on the ice on top of being one of the most skilled. He has committed to the University of North Dakota for next season.
10. Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton (BCHL)
DOB: 6/20/98 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 189
GP: 45 | G: 14 | A: 53
An outstanding two-way defenseman who was the best defenseman in the BCHL this season, Fabbro also had strong showings in international play. His hockey IQ is among the best in this draft class. The way Fabbro moves the puck dictates the tempo of the shift. His passes are accurate but also very crisp, as he puts his full weight into a lot of his breakout passes. He's so calm and aware on his outlets, and is a decent skater, which lets him rush the puck up as well. Fabbro can QB a power play, and has some creativity in his game.
He's got a decent frame, will engage his checks physically and is a quality positional player. There's an occasional mistake on that end, but for the most part he's a pretty sound player. He is committed to play next season at Boston University.
Ranking explanation: I came into the season with Chychrun being rated a few spots higher than Fabbro, and as we went from August to May, I was continually impressed by Fabbro while waiting for Chychrun to have those "wow" games. Mind you, Chychrun was still great all season, and struggled through some injuries, but he never showed the offensive upside Fabbro did. For me, Fabbro projects to be a moderately better puck mover in the NHL, while Chychrun projects to be slightly better defensively. That matters -- given that they are defensemen -- but still makes me tilt toward Fabbro, given the IQ/offense gap he's shown. What's more, they played together for two weeks -- often on the same pairing -- in the final weeks of the season, with Fabbro elevating his play over Chychrun.
11. Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL)
DOB: 3/31/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 205
GP: 62 | G: 11 | A: 38
Son of former No. 47 overall pick (1984) Jeff Chychrun, Jakob has been on the prospect radar for years, as one of the top players in the 1998 age group for a while; that includes his being the top pick in his OHL draft year. Chychrun was one of the better defenders in the OHL this season. He's a high-end skater, with excellent agility. Chychrun has above-average skill, and while he isn't a dangler, he can evade pressure well and move the puck very effectively on the man advantage. Chychrun thinks the game pretty well defensively. He's an advanced positional player, and given his very strong frame and great work ethic, he is a very reliable penalty killer. Offensively, he shows the ability to move the puck well and make some skill plays, but he can make some bad decisions and doesn't show high-end creativity.
12. Logan Brown, C, Windsor (OHL)
DOB: 3/5/98 | Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 220
GP: 59 | G: 21 | A: 53
A native of Raleigh, North Carolina, Brown has been a much-discussed prospect in the scouting ranks for years, and for a variety of reasons. He is often defined as having "all the tools." He's a 6-foot-6 center, with high-end skill who can dominate a game whenever he gets near the puck. He's a very smart playmaker with great patience, vision and instincts. Though not a blazer, he skates extremely well for a player his size. If there weren't some consistent negatives hanging on him, he'd have all the capabilities to be in the top five of this class. One of the negatives is that he can be a non-factor off the puck. Historically, he's had a tendency to shy away from physical play, and his defensive effort isn't good, although the latter area showed significant improvement in the second half of this season. His work ethic on and off the ice have been criticized, but Brown seemed to take those critiques to heart, and really impressed in the past few months. If he maintains that trend, he could be a game-breaking center.
13. German Rubtsov, C, Russia U18 (MHL)
DOB: 6/27/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 178
GP: 28 | G: 12 | A: 14
The well-rounded Rubtsov was the top player on the inaugural Russia under-18 team this season, and showed well in international play. Offensively, he has the traits one would expect of a top Russian prospect. He's an above-average skater, with a good first step and an easy stride. His skills aren't elite, but he shows good hands and is able to create space for himself. His hockey IQ is very impressive, as he displays great patience with the puck, sees his options well and always finds himself involved with the play. Rubtsov is a fierce competitor in puck battles and, despite having a lean frame, is able to win a fair amount of them. He's also a quality defensive center, who has been leaned on all season in critical defensive situations, and is often a threat to score shorthanded. Though he and the rest of his teammates were disqualified from the under-18 world championships, it's hard to see his draft stock slipping too much.
14. Kieffer Bellows, LW, USA U18 (USHL)
DOB: 6/10/98 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 196
GP: 55 | G: 45 | A: 28
Bellows, son of former No. 2 overall pick (1982) Brian Bellows, has been one of the top players in the USHL for the past two seasons. He's followed a unique path. After skating for Sioux Falls of the USHL in 2014-15, he joined the USA Hockey National Team Development Program (USNTDP) for his second season of eligibility, and was the under-18 team's second-best player this season; he currently ranks among the best goal scorers ever in the program. Stylistically, Bellows is a scoring power winger. He's got a sturdy, developed frame, plays with an edge and brings a lot of offensive tools to the table. He shows above-average puck skills and offensive hockey sense, and has a high-end shot. In fact, he was a shots machine this season, with one of the highest shots-per-game rates in the USHL. However, Bellows' skating has been a consistent issue in his game. He just doesn't have any sort of explosiveness in his stride. His defensive play isn't too great either, which may be a product of his skating as opposed to any work ethic issues. He has committed to Boston University for next season.
