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NHL Off-Season 2016 |OT| My prospects are better than yours
- Thread starter zroid
- Start date
ElephantShell
Banned
I wonder if Arcobello will make his way back into the NHL at some point. He's been such a beast for the Marlies this year.
Absolute trash
it's a shame they choked in game 3 because I'd have loved to get this series over with and not have to worry about any more players getting murdered
by the way, Shawinigan was eliminated so that frees up Dmytro Timashov. Wonder if he joins the Marlies.
I think its almost guaranteed he joins in a capacity similar to Bracco at least
Oh yes I forgot about Bracco. He isn't signed though, while Timashov is, so we'll see what happens.
CreeperBlocks
Banned
especially ChabotOh yeah I almost forgot:
PRONMAN: Why Patrik Laine, not Auston Matthews, is the top NHL draft prospect
Hnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
PRONMAN: Why Patrik Laine, not Auston Matthews, is the top NHL draft prospect
There is a great debate between favoring Auston Matthews and favoring Patrik Laine as the top overall prospect in the 2016 draft class, and in crafting my top 100 rankings for the class, I landed on Laine.
This decision is not some knee-jerk recency bias. I wrote back in January that the first overall pick was a coin flip, which is something I maintain.
Even though I did not make the argument for Laine at first overall in the class a year ago, one could have made a reasonable argument dating back to the 2015 IIHF under-18 championship, and that idea has continued to gain momentum throughout this season, as Laine has maintained that high level of excellence. I didn't have Laine in the top five last summer, but that was due to overly conservative hedging and wanting to wait for a larger sample, after Laine looked like an elite guy in the under-18 tournament.
Some might argue that if nearly the entire hockey community has said Matthews is the top guy, why not just be safe? Are you just trying to be different or controversial? My job is not to worry about perception but to give my opinion based on my evaluation process. I have gone through this process rigorously and thought about this call for about six months. I've gone back and forth and do consider this call a near coin flip.
However, I'm going with Laine at No. 1, and here's why.
Tools
To illustrate this section, I will use the 20-80 scale commonly seen in baseball. Some NHL teams have adopted various versions of this scale (I've seen different teams use 30-90 or 10-70, for example). Using this scale, a 50 means the player projects as NHL average, 60 is among the top third of the league, 70 is among the very best, and 80 is generational; at the other end, 40 is at the fringe of the league, and anything below that is not NHL-caliber.
The following table includes the top two prospects from this draft and some top forward prospects from previous drafts:
On a tools basis, here is how I see things: Matthews is a much better skater than Laine, he has better puck skills, and he is better defensively. Laine is smarter, has a much better shot and is much better physically. That doesn't mean either of these players is poor in any of these areas; it is about relative differences.
Centers are more valuable than wingers, so that creates a tilt to Matthews. The common argument is that if it's close, take the center, and I don't disagree with that.
Some might look at how the tools line up and say it's a push, but I disagree. I see a slight to moderate lean to Laine just because of how elite his hockey sense is. I think great players are built on IQ. Laine is always around the puck and winning the puck, and he always seems to find himself in position for a scoring chance. When you add an elite shot and a 6-foot-4 frame, it gives the edge to Laine, even if he doesn't have the speed and touch of Matthews. Given that slight to moderate gap and adjusting for the position, especially given that Matthews is better defensively, it's almost a coin flip for me, but I go with Laine for this next reason.
Age difference
The difference in age and playing experience matters. Some might roll their eyes at the assertion that seven months can be significant, but it is when players are this young. When you research the standard of excellence for an under-18 player versus that of an under-19 player, it's a significant difference. When we looked at similar CHL players, production-wise, the difference between late September birthday players, such as Matthews, and April birthday players, such as Laine, was a nearly 100 percent difference in production in the NHL.
As a player who is nearly a full year older and who has a full extra season of hockey experience, Matthews can't just be going tit-for-tat with Laine. He has to be substantially better. I think he has been better this season. From league play to the IIHF World Junior Championship to the World Championships, I believe Matthews has been slightly better -- but that's not enough. The aforementioned gap between under-18 and under-19 players, and the historic trends they follow, have taught me the gap needs to be bigger. When you try to find players who have looked like Laine at his age, there are nearly none. Maybe Jaromir Jagr? Maybe Alex Ovechkin?
Those are obviously very best-case scenarios for Laine's projection, but the main point is that Laine has looked unique: unique in how he plays, unique in how he generates so many shots versus pros, unique in how he can be a quality player on a good World Championship team right around the time he loses his status as a minor. These unique traits are what pull me in the direction of Laine as the top prospect.
High floor vs. high ceiling
There are legitimate counterpoints, and I would not fault any team for preferring Matthews. There are risks with Laine. Laine's lack of complete game and Matthews' extra season of proving himself -- and doing so at an extremely high level -- lower the risk on his projection. He could be one of the game's best players and a centerpiece center for a decade.
But I think Laine at the very least has a chance to be something special, and I'd almost always take a chance on special.
Put another way, this will come down to a team's appetite for risk and whether the team would prefer the player with a higher floor (Matthews) or the one with a higher ceiling (Laine).
Hnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
megachao24
Unconfirmed Member
Stars lost, Spurs get murdered by that shithead OKC team.
Fuck basketball, fuck soccer, fuck Lehtonen, fuck Jerry Jones.
Bring three MLB teams and five NHL teams here to the SA-Austin corridor.
Fuck everything.
/butt rage
Fuck basketball, fuck soccer, fuck Lehtonen, fuck Jerry Jones.
Bring three MLB teams and five NHL teams here to the SA-Austin corridor.
Fuck everything.
/butt rage
I think he's primarily getting compared to Tavares/Kopitar/Toews
Not Dopey so hope this is okay
From what I understand his prospect status is probably considered something similar to Tavares. Not a generational player, but a franchise C.
But but but but
Too bad this won't stop people from bringing it up for the next month a half.
Gotchya, I just assumed he was more of a MacKinnon type 1st overall pick, projection wise. Haven't followed this draft at all, but if his projections are that high, it seems obvious the Leafs pick him. They're not going to get another chance at a center like this.
CreeperBlocks
Banned
HadesGigas
Member
Welcome Preds
CreeperBlocks
Banned
Welcome Gunstar
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Who would have thought we'd get two game 7s and that they'd both suck...
Will there be any games this weekend or just the game tomorrow night?
Is throwing a stick like that a penalty?
Will there be any games this weekend or just the game tomorrow night?
Welcome Preds
Is throwing a stick like that a penalty?
Gunstar Ikari
Unconfirmed Member
To be honest, I wasn't even counting on the Preds to make the playoffs with their terrible midseason so my expectations for 2015-16 were exceeded. Still, to go out like that is pretty painful.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
megachao24
Unconfirmed Member
Savage.
bonesmccoy
Banned
Y'know, I wondered this last year around this time when we were all chatting about the 2015 draft:
Who the hell is Corey Pronman?
For all my Hip-Hop brethren, the new Chance album is fire
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1215401
The fact he's on twitter posting impressions and his scouting observations instead of working for a team is all that needs to be said. He got picked up by ESPN after he started getting so many hits on twitter.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1215401
From a year ago
The fact he's on twitter posting impressions and his scouting observations instead of working for a team is all that needs to be said. He got picked up by ESPN after he started getting so many hits on twitter.
Is this the true megachao? I like it
megachao24
Unconfirmed Member
When the Stars fuck up, I sigh in mild annoyance.
When the Spurs fuck up, out comes the salt from my mouth.
Why? Are you a bigger Spurs fan?
I'm with you there. I cannot stand OKC and their overrated shit team.
:lol
megachao24
Unconfirmed Member
It's a little complicated, but here goes:
I actually like the Stars (and hockey in general) more than the Spurs, even though the latter are my hometown team. The Stars are more or less a team on the rise, and they still to fix some big gaping holes mainly in their D-core and goaltending, so while I am upset that the Stars crashed and burned in Game 7 of the second round, their weaknesses were obvious in that it was quite the accomplishment that they got as far as they did, and its something I can at least be proud of in spite of their shortcomings. The core is young with Benn, Seguin, Roussel and Klingberg, alongside promising prospects like Faksa and Janmark, plus some good role players like Eaves and Fiddler, so the team has some good footprint to build upon.
The Spurs, on the other hand, were built like the Red Wings in which they can retool and reload, mainly to readjust to the shifting trends of the NBA. They're a well coached team that can do some readjustments on the fly, a well oiled machine that has a strong sense on continuity. But like the Red Wings, they rely so much on their veteran core that some many prospects have come and gone, often to flourish with other teams, and despite winning a championship a few years back, they still leaned on their big three of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, things break down very badly when things go awry, as this past playoff series proved (their main issue this season was a slow starting offense in the beginning of games, which bites them in the ass).
There are also other issues as well that hamper my employment watching the Spurs, and its their local television commentating: Bill Land and especially Sean Elliott are fucking awful, some of the biggest elitist homers in the league (barring Houston, said to be worse but that's not here or there). I swear to God, Elliott, for all the good he did as a player for the team does deserve respect, is blathering idiot who often rants way too much, more so if the Spurs are losing to a team they should able beat. It already sounded pretty bad when up against Ralph Strangis and Razor, but with a national level talent like Dave Strader its just a huge downgrade in quality programming its depressing really. And that's not counting the cornball pre- and post-game shows, seriously can the painful one-liners from Ric Renner or the team ballwashing from John Oliver (not related to the John Oliver of Last Week Tonight), though Andrew Monaco is a cool guy (and go figure, he's a former hockey player).
And that's not even going into my frustration of not seeing shitheels like Westbrook who I just want someone to give good, hard crunching hit to into the boards, but such actions is not allowed in the NBA. Mind you, the Spurs had guys like good ol' dirty Bruce Bowen and the aforementioned Ginobili for his flopping, but Christ some guys in the league really need, need[/I] a good right cross to the jaw.
Short story: The Stars are a fun team to watch, with a good comentating (if still homerish) television crew who can both score and crush guys like Brad Marchand into boards (or drop the gloves for some good ol' fisticuffs), while the Spurs are (to me, at least) a fairly fun team to watch, but hampered with a shit TV crew and stuck in a league where stars can get away with flopping and barely anything can be done with it, except hope the refs allow both teams to play.
...Sorry for the rant.
i'm glad to see the people who keep pretending you can't dislike anything made by ND unless you're an idiot who are getting banned, I was expecting the opposite
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAHL/status/730183042141032449
So apparently Sonny Milano made it on Sportscenter a couple days ago. Neat-o.
One of the most bewildering things I've ever read
So apparently Sonny Milano made it on Sportscenter a couple days ago. Neat-o.
One of the most bewildering things I've ever read
CreeperBlocks
Banned
Happy Birthday PK!
Happy Birthday PK!
<3
Nope. It's pretty focused on story and generally linear.
It does have dialogue options at certain parts of the game, as well as some optional dialogue (tap triangle to talk) cues to add some uniqueness to it between players.
Fuck me there was a story in the local paper about climate change and how it would impact western canada in the future and I read the comments on the story and now I yearn for the sweet release of death.
We're so fucking doomed. I have to pray most of those willfully, deliberately ignorant morons are just super old people willfully ignoring climate change and hope they will die off ASAP.
We're so fucking doomed. I have to pray most of those willfully, deliberately ignorant morons are just super old people willfully ignoring climate change and hope they will die off ASAP.
Humanity isn't meant to live forever, we're nothing. I'm not saying it's okay to accelerate that process, but it's pretty much inevitable at this point so i'm not willing to live a miserable life to "save the earth"
just accept that replacing us by AI is the way to go
Ex-Machina pls