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NHL Off-Season 2016 |OT| My prospects are better than yours

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Top goalie performances this year, Vezina nominees highlighted:

CuVgg9n.png
Don't worry, I've got an entire Rangers fanbase telling me Henrik Lundqvist is bad now.
 

Quick

Banned
Top goalie performances this year, Vezina nominees highlighted:

CuVgg9n.png

This might sound dumb, but Goals Saved Above Expected? Can you elaborate on this a little more?

Not questioning that Lundqvist should get a nomination, but the chart seems very specific to certain instances.

Didn't Holtby lead a lot of the usual goaltending categories this season, and generally praised as one of the best goaltenders this season?
 

TUSR

Banned
This might sound dumb, but Goals Saved Above Expected? Can you elaborate on this a little more?

Not questioning that Lundqvist should get a nomination, but the chart seems very specific to certain instances.

Didn't Holtby lead a lot of the usual goaltending categories this season, and generally praised as one of the best goaltenders this season?

dopeystats bro
 

Socreges

Banned
This might sound dumb, but Goals Saved Above Expected? Can you elaborate on this a little more?

Not questioning that Lundqvist should get a nomination, but the chart seems very specific to certain instances.

Didn't Holtby lead a lot of the usual goaltending categories this season, and generally praised as one of the best goaltenders this season?
I'm also curious. Does superior positioning and anticipation (eg, something that Schneider excels at) mean that the 'GSAE' wouldn't give due credit?
 

zroid

Banned
This might sound dumb, but Goals Saved Above Expected? Can you elaborate on this a little more?

Not questioning that Lundqvist should get a nomination, but the chart seems very specific to certain instances.

Didn't Holtby lead a lot of the usual goaltending categories this season, and generally praised as one of the best goaltenders this season?

I'm also curious. Does superior positioning and anticipation (eg, something that Schneider excels at) mean that the 'GSAE' wouldn't give due credit?

Positioning/etc would absolutely be taken into account here. The "flaw" of this metric is that it over rewards goalies who have higher workloads. Lundqvist was obviously great but the reason he's twice as good as anyone else here is because the Rangers defence was relatively porous. New Jersey played a slow, defensive game, so Schneider doesn't get as much credit.

Holtby was really good early in the season and I think that has coloured people's perceptions of how good he was overall. He tailed off a lot in the second half. But he got a lot of #wins.
 

Yawnier

Banned
@mirtle 2h2 hours ago

Some NHL execs have remarked they're not super happy with the draft lottery being this late. Unusual to not know where they're picking yet.

Most of us aren't super happy either. The lottery should have been two saturdays ago, like most other years.

Fucking sportsnet/rogers has to show that dumb lady luck commercial a trillion times though to try and get all of Canada to watch it.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
expectation is a shot quality stat. the expected save % of a shot near the crease, for example, is lower than a shot taken from the perimeter.

so I guess it is a dopeystat lol

Mine isn't derived from distance, instead derived from zoning (which ends up being distance and rough angle)... Simply because angles are important to determine the actual quality of the shot and in turn, the actual quality of the save
 

zroid

Banned
Mine isn't derived from distance, instead derived from zoning (which ends up being distance and rough angle)... Simply because angles are important to determine the actual quality of the shot and in turn, the actual quality of the save

xG takes into account a lot more than just distance, I was just using an example

edit: actually this table lists all the variables

dRKFQgn.png
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
xG takes into account a lot more than just distance, I was just using an example

edit: actually this table lists all the variables

dRKFQgn.png

So it's kinda like my stat... I called this stat defensive differential in my sheets which was SONQT (shot on net quality total) - goals against

Positive numbers means saving better than expected, negative saving less than expected.

I think mine was a little bit cleaner though by zoning
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
So it's Dopeystats. From now on we need that disclaimer at the top

Well it is at it's purest, sort of.

Dopeystats is a shot quality by sh% with variables.

I would have had expected goals using a save quality stat and a shot quality stat which has weights against systems, defensive players on ice

In order to get the information on that graph, I'd be going through a lot of steps to see the final answer because if you aren't careful with the info, you're going to get some really uninformative results

That expected goals stat was also really only going to be used as a check to make sure the shot quality stats were being derived correctly...you want your differential to be as close to zero as possible... If it's even possible
 

yyzjohn

Banned
Well it is at it's purest, sort of.

Dopeystats is a shot quality by sh% with variables.

I would have had expected goals using a save quality stat and a shot quality stat which has weights against systems, defensive players on ice

In order to get the information on that graph, I'd be going through a lot of steps to see the final answer because if you aren't careful with the info, you're going to get some really uninformative results

That expected goals stat was also really only going to be used as a check to make sure the shot quality stats were being derived correctly...you want your differential to be as close to zero as possible... If it's even possible

Do you have a sweatshop in China of kids collecting all these stats from hockey games?
 

Silexx

Member
What happened? Is it Euege related??

Nah.

Bobcat, Shannon and PJ Stock were talking about the entry draft. McCown made the point that since goaltending is "the most important position" on a team, then goalies should be drafted higher. Stock agreed with him and Shannon was the lone one saying that that's a stupid thing to do.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
Do you have a sweatshop in China of kids collecting all these stats from hockey games?

No. That's why I can't realistically do it on my own... Can do it as a job but you have to essentially look at all shots, even missed shots (for AONQ... Attempt on net quality) across all games and have both a persistent and rolling data set

You need to get enough info so that you confidently separate every aspect of the game and give numbers for every action and that itself is tough
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
This might sound dumb, but Goals Saved Above Expected? Can you elaborate on this a little more?

Not questioning that Lundqvist should get a nomination, but the chart seems very specific to certain instances.

Didn't Holtby lead a lot of the usual goaltending categories this season, and generally praised as one of the best goaltenders this season?

Basically Hank had the difficulty slider set to max and still performed very well in spite of that fact.
 

Cake Boss

Banned
Nah.

Bobcat, Shannon and PJ Stock were talking about the entry draft. McCown made the point that since goaltending is "the most important position" on a team, then goalies should be drafted higher. Stock agreed with him and Shannon was the lone one saying that that's a stupid thing to do.

Lol if anything this years playoffs has proven is that goaltending is a crapshoot. And you don't need elite goaltending to contend, and those elite contenders weren't even picked in the top 5 or first round.

For example today's goalies were both 3rd rounders.
 
Trying to watch the Marlies game on "AHL Live" and it's just some guy walking around the arena shooting video of people. What the fuck is this shit, LOL.
 
Wild GM Fletcher had his briefing/after-season thing today. Big points:
  • Refutes the rumors about lack of chemistry and the division in the locker room (lots of rumors this year about the team basically split into two groups that don't overlap, caused problems).
  • Said that Torchetti is definitely a candidate for the head coach for next year.
  • All assistant coaches are currently out of contracts. Fletcher says whoever is brought in as coach gets to bring in whoever they want, so he won't offer new contracts to teh assistant coaches until then.
  • Basically said Kuemper will probably be traded (well, options looked at, at least)
  • Was really dodgy about whether or not he is going to buy out Vanek. (?)
  • With 12m to sign 8 players, Fletcher somehow thinks this is the most flexible the Wild has been in the off-season in several years (??)
  • Fletcher claims the team just needs an upgrade or two to become a legitimate cup contender (???)

Also came out that the Wild had injuries to:

  • Parise - Back injury. Didn't play in the playoffs at all. Probably no surgery needed.
  • Dubnyk - broken finger in blocker hand.
  • Scandella - Hernia - probably needs surgery. Turned down Team Canada because of it.
  • Brodin - foot injury
  • Haula - hip pointer. Turned down Team Finland because of it.
  • Spurgeon - "tough upper body injury" whatever that means. Turned down Team Canada because of it.
  • Vanek - pretty sure he lost his heart.

Wild are sending several players to the WCs: Koivu and Granlund (Finland), Schroeder (USA), Dumba (Canada).
 

Vman

Member
  • With 12m to sign 8 players, Fletcher somehow thinks this is the most flexible the Wild has been in the off-season in several years (??)
  • Fletcher claims the team just needs an upgrade or two to become a legitimate cup contender (???)

Well 7 of those 8 are Carter, Fedetanko, Fontaine, Jones, Porter, Strachon and Stoll. The only ones i could see back would be Porter and maybe Carter. With the Vanek buyout which is obviously happening we clear another 6 mil so we actually do have quite a bit of cap room. We can fill our bottom 6 with guys like Graovac and Gabriel who are super cheep. We have one of the best defensive cores in the league so I'm inclined to agree that we are close to a legitimate cup contender.
 
Well 7 of those 8 are Carter, Fedetanko, Fontaine, Jones, Porter, Strachon and Stoll. The only ones i could see back would be Porter and maybe Carter. With the Vanek buyout which is obviously happening we clear another 6 mil so we actually do have quite a bit of cap room. We can fill our bottom 6 with guys like Graovac and Gabriel who are super cheep. We have one of the best defensive cores in the league so I'm inclined to agree that we are close to a legitimate cup contender.

I mostly meant 8 roster spots period, not bringing those guys back specifically, but still. That isn't a whole lot of money. Especially if they go after a guy like Okposo or Backes like rumors point toward (and I disagree with).

Almost guaranteed that Graovac and Gabriel make the big club next year, yeah. And honestly I'd like it. Gabriel was pretty impressive in the little bit I saw of him. Still need 2-3 more guys after that and another goalie. Just isn't a whole lot of cap room for everybody.
 

Vman

Member
I mostly meant 8 roster spots period, not bringing those guys back specifically, but still. That isn't a whole lot of money. Especially if they go after a guy like Okposo or Backes like rumors point toward (and I disagree with).

Almost guaranteed that Graovac and Gabriel make the big club next year, yeah. And honestly I'd like it. Gabriel was pretty impressive in the little bit I saw of him. Still need 2-3 more guys after that and another goalie. Just isn't a whole lot of cap room for everybody.

Yea I'm fine with those guys being in the bottom 6, I feel like our main issue this year was that our bottom 6 was compete trash until that Nino-Haula-Pomms line was formed. In the past that was one of our greatest assets. Fontaine was absolutely useless outside of the PK this year. A complete non-factor, and that can't happen when your team is injured and in a slump. I also think significant trades will be made to alleviate some of the cap constraints. But like I said, After a Vanek buyout we actually have a fair amount of cap space when you consider a good portion of the bottom 6 players we bring in will most likely be making the minimum.
 

eyeless

Member
It's on Rogers Tv Toronto

which I don't get because I'm in the 'burbs :(

just watching on youtube
ah i c


i'd like to see leivo on nylander's wing, they were a good combo, i don't like how they've been juggling willie's winger for a while now
 
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