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[Oblivion]

Hope this hasn't been posted. I did a search and found nothing.

We're here at the Games Marketing Conference in San Francisco. The first session consisted of a trends overview, but there were some good nuggets of truth (and opinion) bandied about, including a warning by Michael Pachter, the oft-quoted managing director of research at Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Pachter warned, "People have written off the Revolution and that's foolish."

The meat of his argument comes down to the fact that there will be few killer exclusives on the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. The Grand Theft Auto series that was so instrumental in selling the PlayStation 2 will be available on both Xbox 360 and PS3. Meanwhile, Microsoft has little unique leverage either: "Microsoft has one game now: it's Halo, and everything else sucks," he said. Pachter predicted that households today that own both a PS2 and an Xbox will be more likely to own either an Xbox 360 or a PlayStation 3 and a Nintendo Revolution as Nintendo's first-party development generates interest in that console and its unique gameplay.

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/08/nintendo-revolution-prediction-second-console-of-choice/

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

"Microsoft has one game now: it's Halo, and everything else sucks,"

:lol

 

[Beezy]

The Halo adapter lives on.

 

[SpiffyG]

Well, if he means that Halo is the only super-huge, over hyped game on Xbox, then yes. There's DOA, Fable and PDZ... but they aren't nearly as AWWSUM (for people that love Halo) or as hyped. At least that's what I think he means... or at least what he should have said.

 

[GitarooMan]

Obviously the "everything else sucks" comment is ignorant. The crux of his idea has been done to death (Rev as the "alternate console") although that depends on how much people really want alternative controls and how big the market is for Nintendo franchises in the US at this point.

 

[Lhadatt]

Obviously the "everything else sucks" comment is ignorant.

No, it's spot-on.

Nothing else is sellable to the PS2 crowd. DOA4 won't make them buy a X360, neither will PDZ.

The X360 will end up more or less like the Dreamcast - only MS will stay in the game, as they actually have enough money to sustain a system.

 

[Error]

The Halo adapter lives on.

more like Halobox 360

 

[Prine]

The meat of his argument comes down to the fact that there will be few killer exclusives on the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. The Grand Theft Auto series that was so instrumental in selling the PlayStation 2 will be available on both Xbox 360 and PS3. Meanwhile, Microsoft has little unique leverage either: "Microsoft has one game now: it's Halo, and everything else sucks," he said

:lol :lol

funny how Xbox and PS2 had more quality games than GC, the douch also forgets about XBL.

People are writing off the revolution because all we know right now is that its a Gamecube Turbo, with a unproven controller. Lets see the games then we might change our minds. Put up or shutup Nintendo

 

[Ponn]

*grabs popcorn*

I await greatness from this thread.

 

[Beezy]

:lol :lol

funny how Xbox and PS2 had more quality games than GC, the douch also forgets about XBL.

Xbox had more quality games than GC? I thought they were even at best.

 

[Prine]

Xbox had the luxury of quality western titles, along with online enabled games. XBL is a killer app in itself

 

[SpiffyG]

People are writing off the revolution because all we know right now is that its a Gamecube Turbo, with a unproven controller. Lets see the games then we might change our minds. Put up or shutup Nintendo

Pachter doesn't work for Nintendo.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Pachter predicted that households today that own both a PS2 and an Xbox will be more likely to own either an Xbox 360 or a PlayStation 3 and a Nintendo Revolution as Nintendo's first-party development generates interest in that console and its unique gameplay.

Or they could get either X360 or PS3 and ignore the Rev. Most people DON'T buy "secondary consoles", they get one, the one with the most/best games and that's it.

 

[Mrbob]

Sweet, Pachter is underestimating the X360.

We'll see if Revolution can live up to its increasingly higher expectations.

 

[SpiffyG]

Or they could get either X360 or PS3 and ignore the Rev. Most people DON'T buy "secondary consoles", they get one, the one with the most/best games and that's it.

Do you have those statistics?

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Do you have those statistics?

So you're telling me that casual gamers (the majority of gamers) bought 2 or 3 systems this gen? Is that what you're telling me? There's no stats on this, all you need is common sense.

 

[SpiffyG]

So you're telling me that casual gamers (the majority of gamers) bought 2 or 3 systems this gen? Is that what you're telling me? There's no stats on this, all you need is common sense.

No. I just asked you if you have the stats.

 

[hie]

....so what does PS3 mean to him? NO killer exclusives? thats what he seems to be saying.

on another note: i doubt this guy knows shit about games that are upcoming on any platform

 

[Mrbob]

Do you have those statistics?

Look at the higher ratio of PS2 hardware sales versus combined sales of Xbox & GC hardware sales. Even if you used the highest ratio, with every PS2 owner owning a second console, it would mean only about 40 percent of the PS2 userbase would own a second console. Meaning 60 percent do not. Of course actual numbers would be much lower.

 

[Error]

Or they could get either X360 or PS3 and ignore the Rev. Most people DON'T buy "secondary consoles", they get one, the one with the most/best games and that's it.

that's because all the systems are practically the same thing, unlike Revolution and PS3 or Xbox 360 I'm not defending his statement because it's still to early to be saying those things but you can't look at next gen the same you looked at this gen.

 

[MrSardonic]

the douch also forgets about XBL.

Yeah, because it's free, it's mainstream appeal is enormous, and it doesn't depend in the slightest on the games that actually use the service

 

[JoDark]

GRAW would say differently today. As will Oblivian. And Gears. And Too Human. And Blue Dragon. And Splinter Cell.

And yea, Halo 3.

Idiot.

 

[snatches]

I don;t know how a well (?) respected analyst can go on the record with a statement like that. His statement that the Rev is an ideal second console for gamers is justifiable, but that statement about "it's Halo, or it sucks" is ludicrous, not to mention insulting to the talented teams working on 360 exclusives. Teams like Lionhead, Silicon Knights, Rare, Q Entertainment, Bioware, not to mention the Sakaguchi stuff, and I am just scratching the surface.

what a douche.

edit: beaten ^^^^^ how did I forget Bethesda?

 

[AdmiralViscen]

His point was that most of XBox's (and PS2's) big titles will wind up being multiplatform next-gen, meaning that people will be buying a 360 OR a PS3, where they formerly might have bought an XBox AND a PS2. He just said it like a moron.

Obviously the "everything else sucks" comment is ignorant. The crux of his idea has been done to death (Rev as the "alternate console") although that depends on how much people really want alternative controls and how big the market is for Nintendo franchises in the US at this point.

More than half of Cube's global market share comes from its US sales. GBA and DS continue to do well. I don't know why you'd think Nintendo's sellability is diminished. They have to worry more about "goofy controller" syndrome than franchise affection.

 

[Mrbob]

GRAW would say differently today. As will Oblivian. And Gears. And Too Human. And Blue Dragon. And Splinter Cell.

And yea, Halo 3.

Idiot.

Well I think he is specifically referring to first party content. Of course I don't know if his comments also reflect collaborations like Crackdown, Too Human, Mass Effect, Gears of War, etc.

 

[snatches]

His point was that most of XBox's (and PS2's) big titles will wind up being multiplatform next-gen, meaning that people will be buying a 360 OR a PS3, where they formerly might have bought an XBox AND a PS2. He just said it like a moron.

I read the article, and I agree. However, there is lots of exclusive content on PS3 and 360 to get excited about.

 

[Error]

GRAW would say differently today. As will Oblivian. And Gears. And Too Human. And Blue Dragon. And Splinter Cell.

And yea, Halo 3.

Idiot.

you are kidding yourself if you think Splinter Cell will be exclusive for 360.

 

[Mrbob]

I read the article, and I agree. However, there is lots of exclusive content on PS3 and 360 to get excited about.

Shhh, no there isn't. The entire PS3 and X360 lineup will be exactly the same with only minimal difference in content.

 

[Keru_Shiri]

So you're telling me that casual gamers (the majority of gamers) bought 2 or 3 systems this gen? Is that what you're telling me? There's no stats on this, all you need is common sense.

This gen? No, you're right, casuals only want something to play Madden on. But the Rev is going to be marketed as the secondary console. It will have waggle wand gimmick, plus downloadable retro games for the gamer to entertain friends and family with, and the "normal" style games using the shell for the gamming crowd. For a relativley cheap price, when stacked up with the 360 and the PS3.

 

[Johnas]

I think it's pretty logical to assume this. I know I bought a Cube as a secondary console (to PS2, then even later snagged an Xbox) and the differentiation strategy Nintendo is following is bound to work better for them than the Cube did. I'll be getting a Rev day one regardless, but given the price and the obvious gameplay difference provided, it's bound to generate some sales to casuals who look at it and think "hey, it's different, and not as expensive as the others, oh I can play Super Mario 3 on it! Sure!"

 

[Scrow]

:lol :lol

funny how Xbox and PS2 had more quality games than GC

no they don't

 

[Ulairi]

I don;t know how a well (?) respected analyst can go on the record with a statement like that. His statement that the Rev is an ideal second console for gamers is justifiable, but that statement about "it's Halo, or it sucks" is ludicrous, not to mention insulting to the talented teams working on 360 exclusives. Teams like Lionhead, Silicon Knights, Rare, Q Entertainment, Bioware, not to mention the Sakaguchi stuff, and I am just scratching the surface.

what a douche.

edit: beaten ^^^^^ how did I forget Bethesda?

Just because a game looks pretty doesn't mean it's going to sell gangbusters and EDSIV: Oblivion isn't going to move a huge number of units on the 360 when you compare PC, 360 and PS3, it will.

Halo is MS only multimillion unit selling franchise. With more and more third party PS2 exclusives going multiplatform, it's going to hurt Sony more than MS. What he should say is that Sony is going to lose a lot of marketshare this generation it just so happens that Nintendo is going to gain more marketshare than MS and take the #2 spot.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I read the article, and I agree. However, there is lots of exclusive content on PS3 and 360 to get excited about.

Yea. But I think everyone agrees that multiplatform releases are going to be more prevalent with the rising development costs, which might reduce the need for owning a Sony and a Microsoft console for a lot of people who used to do that. If Sony's online service matches Live, there's another lost distinction between the two consoles. People used to buying two consoles might turn to Revolution, especially since it should be pretty cheap.

Of course, this doesn't say anything about how many people own multiple consoles to begin with, OR how many mainstream Americans aren't going to brush off the Revolution as "the system with the goofy dildo."

 

[Pedigree Chum]

I read the article, and I agree. However, there is lots of exclusive content on PS3 and 360 to get excited about.

I think so too, Sony for example has beefed up their internal studios and streamlined the process in which they communicate to each other (should lead to smaller dev times and more shared resources). And MS is going all out on collabing with lots of devs to create new interesting franchises.

There's still going to be reasons to get X360 and a PS3, just less of them than in current gen. Both systems should be closer in power and both have architectures that are PC-dev friendly (basically killing the advantage Xbox had of getting PC-deved conent exclusively this gen), so there's going to be a hell of a lot more overlap and multiplat games this gen. 1st/2nd party titles and featuresets of the consoles themselves (like Live) along with marketing are going to be much more important than ever before.

 

[GitarooMan]

More than half of Cube's global market share comes from its US sales. GBA and DS continue to do well. I don't know why you'd think Nintendo's sellability is diminished. They have to worry more about "goofy controller" syndrome than franchise affection.

I didn't say it was necessarily diminished, but I think an interesting question is will the market for the franchises grow from Gamecube or stay stable. We'll see.

 

[Keru_Shiri]

Yea. But I think everyone agrees that multiplatform releases are going to be more prevalent with the rising development costs, which might reduce the need for owning a Sony and a Microsoft console for a lot of people who used to do that. If Sony's online service matches Live, there's another lost distinction between the two consoles. People used to buying two consoles might turn to Revolution, especially since it should be pretty cheap.

Of course, this doesn't say anything about how many people own multiple consoles to begin with, OR how many mainstream Americans aren't going to brush off the Revolution as "the system with the goofy dildo."

Judging by the number of "Know Your Mushrooms" etc., t-shirts i've seen on people who are less than dedicated hardcore gamers, I think Nintendo can release just about anything and people will give it a chance. The key is marketing, Nintendo needs to push it's legacy console, and have a Mario game at launch!

 

[Trurl]

the douch also forgets about XBL

You forget just how incredibly awesome Nintendo's online service is doing. Do you know that they just hit a million users? At this rate they'll be at ten million users in 3 short years and 100 million users in 25 years.

 

[drohne]

i doubt whether people will suddenly want multiple consoles this gen. where do tie ratios generally end up? eight or ten games per console? and that number has to be inflated by hardcore gamers who buy dozens or hundreds of games -- i'm sure median game ownership is lower than the mean. one console can't supply its owner with the eight games he's likely to buy? in that frame, even gamecube looks adequate.

 

[PhoenixDark]

The Halo comment is very dumb and out of place. Halo isn't the only reason to get a 360, period. Gears of War, Too Human, Blue Dragon, Crackdown, and Mas Effect all look amazing. And, they're all new IPs which is even more impressive. Halo 3 is just the icing on the cake imo.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Just because a game looks pretty doesn't mean it's going to sell gangbusters and EDSIV: Oblivion isn't going to move a huge number of units on the 360 when you compare PC, 360 and PS3, it will.

Halo is MS only multimillion unit selling franchise. With more and more third party PS2 exclusives going multiplatform, it's going to hurt Sony more than MS. What he should say is that Sony is going to lose a lot of marketshare this generation it just so happens that Nintendo is going to gain more marketshare than MS and take the #2 spot.

Uh, if Sony loses some exclusives it doesn't mean that PS3 wont still get the games. During the 32 bit days Sony had tons and tons of content that was exclusive due to Nintendo messing up with N64 hardware, this gen there was a hell of a lot more multiplat games...guess what, Sony still came out on top and will definitely sell more PS2s than they ever did with PS1. Brand names, marketing, featuresets and loyalty are powerful agents in the console games market. People just don't ditch whatever brand they like (be it Sony, MS or Nintendo) on a whim, its not as easy as saying "Sony will have less exclusives, so the number of X360's sold will be closer to the number of PS3s sold".

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Uh, if Sony loses some exclusives it doesn't mean that PS3 wont still get the games. During the 32 bit days Sony had tons and tons of content that was exclusive due to Nintendo messing up with N64 hardware, this gen there was a hell of a lot more multiplat games...guess what, Sony still came out on top and will definitely sell more PS2s than they ever did with PS1. Brand names, marketing, featuresets and loyalty are powerful agents in the console games market. People just don't ditch whatever brand they like (be it Sony, MS or Nintendo) on a whim, its not as easy as saying "Sony will have less exclusives, so the number of X360's sold will be closer to the number of PS4s sold".

But he wasn't saying that. He was saying that the number of MS+Sony households would be reduced, and the number of MS+Nintendo and Sony+Nintendo houses would increase. I think that reasoning is perfectly sound. But I don't think that adds up to that many sales.

Not sure why you're percieving this as an attack on Sony. If anything, it's an attack on MS, but more accurately, it's an analysis of a way that Revolution can gain sales over GameCube.

 

[Mrbob]

I will do a number comparison example to what Pachter is saying.

This gen:

130 million PS2
25 million Xbox
22 million Gamecube

Next Gen

110 million PS3
40 million X360
30 million Revolution

 

[Pedigree Chum]

But he wasn't saying that. He was saying that the number of MS+Sony households would be reduced, and the number of MS+Nintendo and Sony+Nintendo houses would increase. I think that reasoning is perfectly sound. But I don't think that adds up to that many sales.

Yeah I could see the number of people owning both X360 and PS3 being much less that the numbe of people owning both Xbox and PS2...but that doesn't mean that people will automatically look at Rev for a second console, they just might stick with one system. I mean even this gen, if I had the choice of just getting either PS2 or Xbox and getting most of the content released this gen, I would have. People don't actively look to getting a second console, it takes a lot to sell the average consumer on ONE system, its going to take even more to sell them on two. And Rev being a cheap (price wise, not quality) novelty toy isn't going to do it, they really need to have lots of content and strong marketing to sell the whole "scondary console" angle.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Yeah I could see the number of people owning both X360 and PS3 being much less that the numbe of people owning both Xbox and PS2...but that doesn't mean that people will automatically look at Rev for a second console, they just might stick with one system.

Well, that's where the games and features come into play. He's talking about the potential of the circumstances.

 

[metropolis]

funny how Xbox and PS2 had more quality games than GC

well i definately agree with the ps2 part... but xbox???

 

[h1nch]

You forget just how incredibly awesome Nintendo's online service is doing. Do you know that they just hit a million users? At this rate they'll be at ten million users in 3 short years and 100 million users in 25 years.

AND 100000000000 USERS IN 253462 YEARS !!!!!111

 

[Cheebs]

I will do a number comparison example to what Pachter is saying.

This gen:

130 million PS2
25 million Xbox
22 million Gamecube

Next Gen

110 million PS3
40 million X360
30 million Revolution

I agree with that 100%. Rev will obviously expand past GCN's user base. No one doubts that. And since it is such a cheap console for Nintendo to do Nintendo will bring in tons of cash on it even if they aren't "OMG NUMBER ONE!". And I think 360 will eat into the Sony userbase little by little.

 

[LiquidMamba]

I will do a number comparison example to what Pachter is saying.

This gen:

130 million PS2
25 million Xbox
22 million Gamecube

Next Gen

110 million PS3
40 million X360
30 million Revolution

No one can predict the exact numbers of next gen, but I believe the market will grow more than 3 million units! lol

 

[metropolis]

No one can predict the exact numbers of next gen, but I believe the market will grow more than 3 million units! lol

the market could also shrink because a lot of casual gamers might shun the very high price of new consoles.

 

[Beezy]

the market could also shrink because a lot of casual gamers might shun the very high price of new consoles.

It would still grow. They'd just be buying the Revolution instead.