GigaBowser
The bear of bad news
whhhaaat?? record destroy incoming allllll of the games for me portimble
The Switch 2 is right around the corner and, ever since its reveal, have been met by various reactions about its value proposition and potential in the market. Countless discussions have taken place on its price, launch line-up, supposedly confusing packaging, the Game Key Card system, lack of buzz and more. Currently, and after years of speculation, we are in that weird zone where we cannot believe that launch is indeed mere days away.
We try to rationalize it, but eventually we all agree that the truth will be served by the market.
So, beyond all preconceived ideas and agendas, we have explored all the data points we could, asked to the most knowledgeable sales experts out there, so that we could paint the most accurate picture on what the Switch 2 launch will look like.
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Hardware overview
Amazon after a month of preorders
Region | Base | MKW Bundle | Pro Controller |
Japan | 10.600+ | 50.000++ | |
Canada | 1.000+ | 10.000+ | 3.000+ |
Mexico | 900+ | 5.000+ | 600+ |
Germany | 3,000+ | 10,000+ | 6.000+ |
United Kingdom | 2,000+ | 10,000+ | |
Spain | 2,000+ | 9,000+ | 1.000+ |
France | 1,000+ | 4,000+ | 1.000+ |
Italy | 900+ | 3,000+ | 500+ |
Saudi Arabia | 30+ | 200+ | 50+ |
Regional breakdown
United States of AmericaThe US was the biggest market for the Switch and should remain so for the Switch 2 launch. Custom data has shown that around 400k Switch 2 units were shipped from Vietnam to the US every month since January. When asked about the possibility of Switch 2 selling 2M units in June (400k every month from January to May), Circana's gaming expert @Mat Piscatella replied that he is "expecting that US launch units will sell out basically regardless of quantity".
Our own expert in data crunching, @Welfare, made a detailed analysis on launch demand. According to him, one thing that's clear when we talk about successful systems, like the Switch and PS4 before, is that there's a level of uncompressible demand that can be estimated at around 2.5M units. Until it hits that point, Switch 2 might be a struggle to find in the US.
Launch sales expectations: Whatever Nintendo ships – 1.5M+
JapanJapan is the only market where we got official numbers from Nintendo about the demand. Indeed, Nintendo's CEO revealed on X that 2.2M people participated in the Switch 2 lottery on My Nintendo Store in Japan, a number that far exceeded the initial allocation. This is pretty telling as participating to the lottery had requirements.
As such, people in Japan tried to estimate the amount of stock available by conducting surveys on the win-rate for each model. This led to some analysis claiming that the Switch 2 could sell as much as 1.2M units first week.
We would caution against taking this approach as gospel as a bias exists with the people taking the survey (you might be more likely to take it if you won for example).
When asked about it, Japanese sales expert @Chris1964, shared his doubts about that figure. For him, 1m in Japan might be "a stretch with these level of preorders for games". Amazon numbers do paint a very strong picture for hardware, and we are basically on the dark when it comes to My Nintendo Store sales, which won't be tracked by Famitsu. For reference, Switch 1 opened at around 330.000 units.
Launch sales expectations: Whatever Nintendo ships – 800K+
EuropeThe supply situation vs demand seems more robust as Switch 2 is still available to buy in many countries. However, it doesn't mean demand is low. We won't have the time to zoom into every specific market beyond the preorders numbers shared above, but we can still expand on the following markets.
Launch sales expectations: 50%+ growth over the original Switch
FranceFrance has always been a strong Nintendo market and the Switch did extremely well there. Charlotte Massicault, Fnac Gaming Director, commented that early sales metrics for Switch 2 were historically strong and that the average spent by user was very high, closer to those of core gamers than the usual Nintendo demographic.
Since then, we managed to learn that
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which is compatible with the report of 300.000 units available at launch, double the amount of the Switch 1 (which sold 105.000 units).
United KingdomThe UK is an interesting market because it has been relatively the weakest for Nintendo among the big ones. As such, and even if the Switch managed to become a big success over time there, it will most likely fall behind the PS4, just like the Wii fell behind the Xbox 360.
The stock situation so far has been difficult to read, and the recent news of GAME cancelling some preorders didn't make things any easier. Still, supply is available on the My Nintendo Store and we can point out that once supply came back on Amazon, it managed to sell an additional 3.700+ there in a single day. Undoubtedly the sign of a reactive demand.
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Other regions
One of the big shifts from the original Switch launch is how Nintendo expanded geographically since then. During our last Q&A, Daniel Ahmad from Niko Partners, also known as @ZhugeEX, highlighted the importance of a regional approach in order to grow in these regions, and overall. Switch 2 launch offers a stark difference with Switch 1, and this could be one of the keys for growth in the initial years.
Saudi ArabiaSwitch:
Switch 2: Available at launch (sold out and recent pledge of upcoming Switch Online & eShop support in the region)
South KoreaSwitch: December 1st (10 months late)
Switch 2: June 5th (Launch)
SingaporeSwitch: March 3rd (Launch)
Switch 2: June 26th (Launch month)
PhilippinesSwitch: November 30th, 2018 (1.5 years later)
Switch 2: June 26th (Launch month)
ThailandSwitch: March 29th, 2019 (2 years late)
Switch 2: June 26th (Launch month)
TaiwanSwitch: December 1st (10 months late)
Switch 2: July 10th (1 month late)
One of the key market Nintendo expanded massively during the Switch generation is China. The console managed to take the leading position in a growing market, dominated by PC/Mobile. Still, its grey market was several millions big and fed from the Japanese market which was enticing thanks to the weak yen. However, this won't really be possible as Japanese Switch 2 will have a form of region-locking to protect its price in the market.Therefore, Hong-Kong appears like the perfect entry point for the Switch 2 since Nintendo won't have an official presence within mainland China like they had with the Tencent Switch (which was less popular than the imported model). Install Base member @Necu tracked down the amount of Switch 2 being preordered on online Chinese stores, a safe estimate would be of 120K+ units sold among the 3 biggest online retailers. Chinese launch (including HK) might therefore be over 200.000 units in June alone.
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Given all of this, we expect a very significant growth from the Other region vs the original Switch. Between March 17 to June 19, the Other region accounted for 10% of the total of Switch sold. We don't have the detail on the launch quarter since Nintendo used to put Europe within Other until the start of FY2020/3.
Launch sales expectations: Triple digits growth over the original Switch
So, when you combine everything, you end up with the following estimate. The biggest launch ever.
Worldwide launch sales expectations: 4.0M+ at launch / ~5.5M in June new world record
