Nintendo's Plan To Meet Switch 2 Demand Could Lead To 20 Million Consoles Sold New Launch Record

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news

whhhaaat?? record destroy incoming allllll of the games for me portimble

king-homer-simpson-laughing.gif



The Switch 2 is right around the corner and, ever since its reveal, have been met by various reactions about its value proposition and potential in the market. Countless discussions have taken place on its price, launch line-up, supposedly confusing packaging, the Game Key Card system, lack of buzz and more. Currently, and after years of speculation, we are in that weird zone where we cannot believe that launch is indeed mere days away.

We try to rationalize it, but eventually we all agree that the truth will be served by the market.

So, beyond all preconceived ideas and agendas, we have explored all the data points we could, asked to the most knowledgeable sales experts out there, so that we could paint the most accurate picture on what the Switch 2 launch will look like.

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Hardware overview

Switch-2-Pro-Controller-02.jpg



Amazon after a month of preorders

Region
Base
MKW Bundle
Pro Controller​
Japan​
10.600+​
50.000++​
Canada​
1.000+​
10.000+​
3.000+​
Mexico​
900+​
5.000+​
600+​
Germany​
3,000+​
10,000+​
6.000+​
United Kingdom​
2,000+​
10,000+​
Spain​
2,000+​
9,000+​
1.000+​
France​
1,000+​
4,000+​
1.000+​
Italy​
900+​
3,000+​
500+​
Saudi Arabia​
30+​
200+​
50+​

Regional breakdown

🇺🇸 United States of America

The US was the biggest market for the Switch and should remain so for the Switch 2 launch. Custom data has shown that around 400k Switch 2 units were shipped from Vietnam to the US every month since January. When asked about the possibility of Switch 2 selling 2M units in June (400k every month from January to May), Circana's gaming expert @Mat Piscatella replied that he is "expecting that US launch units will sell out basically regardless of quantity".

Our own expert in data crunching, @Welfare, made a detailed analysis on launch demand. According to him, one thing that's clear when we talk about successful systems, like the Switch and PS4 before, is that there's a level of uncompressible demand that can be estimated at around 2.5M units. Until it hits that point, Switch 2 might be a struggle to find in the US.

Launch sales expectations: Whatever Nintendo ships – 1.5M+

🇯🇵 Japan

Japan is the only market where we got official numbers from Nintendo about the demand. Indeed, Nintendo's CEO revealed on X that 2.2M people participated in the Switch 2 lottery on My Nintendo Store in Japan, a number that far exceeded the initial allocation. This is pretty telling as participating to the lottery had requirements.

As such, people in Japan tried to estimate the amount of stock available by conducting surveys on the win-rate for each model. This led to some analysis claiming that the Switch 2 could sell as much as 1.2M units first week.

We would caution against taking this approach as gospel as a bias exists with the people taking the survey (you might be more likely to take it if you won for example).

When asked about it, Japanese sales expert @Chris1964, shared his doubts about that figure. For him, 1m in Japan might be "a stretch with these level of preorders for games". Amazon numbers do paint a very strong picture for hardware, and we are basically on the dark when it comes to My Nintendo Store sales, which won't be tracked by Famitsu. For reference, Switch 1 opened at around 330.000 units.

Launch sales expectations: Whatever Nintendo ships – 800K+

🇪🇺 Europe

The supply situation vs demand seems more robust as Switch 2 is still available to buy in many countries. However, it doesn't mean demand is low. We won't have the time to zoom into every specific market beyond the preorders numbers shared above, but we can still expand on the following markets.

Launch sales expectations: 50%+ growth over the original Switch

🇫🇷 France

France has always been a strong Nintendo market and the Switch did extremely well there. Charlotte Massicault, Fnac Gaming Director, commented that early sales metrics for Switch 2 were historically strong and that the average spent by user was very high, closer to those of core gamers than the usual Nintendo demographic.

Since then, we managed to learn that
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which is compatible with the report of 300.000 units available at launch, double the amount of the Switch 1 (which sold 105.000 units).


🇬🇧 United Kingdom

The UK is an interesting market because it has been relatively the weakest for Nintendo among the big ones. As such, and even if the Switch managed to become a big success over time there, it will most likely fall behind the PS4, just like the Wii fell behind the Xbox 360.

The stock situation so far has been difficult to read, and the recent news of GAME cancelling some preorders didn't make things any easier. Still, supply is available on the My Nintendo Store and we can point out that once supply came back on Amazon, it managed to sell an additional 3.700+ there in a single day. Undoubtedly the sign of a reactive demand.

***

Other regions

One of the big shifts from the original Switch launch is how Nintendo expanded geographically since then. During our last Q&A, Daniel Ahmad from Niko Partners, also known as @ZhugeEX, highlighted the importance of a regional approach in order to grow in these regions, and overall. Switch 2 launch offers a stark difference with Switch 1, and this could be one of the keys for growth in the initial years.


🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Switch:
Switch 2: Available at launch (sold out and recent pledge of upcoming Switch Online & eShop support in the region)

🇰🇷 South Korea
Switch: December 1st (10 months late)
Switch 2: June 5th (Launch)

🇸🇬 Singapore
Switch: March 3rd (Launch)
Switch 2: June 26th (Launch month)

🇵🇭 Philippines
Switch: November 30th, 2018 (1.5 years later)
Switch 2: June 26th (Launch month)

🇹🇭 Thailand
Switch: March 29th, 2019 (2 years late)
Switch 2: June 26th (Launch month)

🇹🇼 Taiwan
Switch: December 1st (10 months late)
Switch 2: July 10th (1 month late)

🇨🇳 One of the key market Nintendo expanded massively during the Switch generation is China. The console managed to take the leading position in a growing market, dominated by PC/Mobile. Still, its grey market was several millions big and fed from the Japanese market which was enticing thanks to the weak yen. However, this won't really be possible as Japanese Switch 2 will have a form of region-locking to protect its price in the market.
Therefore, Hong-Kong appears like the perfect entry point for the Switch 2 since Nintendo won't have an official presence within mainland China like they had with the Tencent Switch (which was less popular than the imported model). Install Base member @Necu tracked down the amount of Switch 2 being preordered on online Chinese stores, a safe estimate would be of 120K+ units sold among the 3 biggest online retailers. Chinese launch (including HK) might therefore be over 200.000 units in June alone.

***

Given all of this, we expect a very significant growth from the Other region vs the original Switch. Between March 17 to June 19, the Other region accounted for 10% of the total of Switch sold. We don't have the detail on the launch quarter since Nintendo used to put Europe within Other until the start of FY2020/3.

Launch sales expectations: Triple digits growth over the original Switch

So, when you combine everything, you end up with the following estimate. The biggest launch ever.


Worldwide launch sales expectations: 4.0M+ at launch / ~5.5M in June new world record
 
My Switch 2 arrives this friday... but putting this number on the title and not backing it up (seriously, there no 20M indication on this post) is the act of a drunk fanboy. Let's just w8 and use it for now, shall we? :-D
 
It's going to be almost impossible to buy one at retail this year. Can't wait for this to get out in the wild!
Amazon.com has them.

Just checked a Portuguese retailer (where i live) and they have them as well. Delivery for June 5th.

It's not retail per say but sounds like it's not really THAT impossible to get one.
 
Amazon.com has them.

Just checked a Portuguese retailer (where i live) and they have them as well. Delivery for June 5th.

It's not retail per say but sounds like it's not really THAT impossible to get one.
biggest restocks every weeks peoples keep buying game over
 
My Switch 2 arrives this friday... but putting this number on the title and not backing it up (seriously, there no 20M indication on this post) is the act of a drunk fanboy. Let's just w8 and use it for now, shall we? :-D
According to a report by Bloomberg* (via Video Games Chronicle) Nintendo has partnered with chip manufacturer Samsung, charging them with producing the Switch 2's custom processors. Since Samsung's manufacturing resources are vast and global, the partnership should ideally help Nintendo manufacture and ship 20 million consoles by April 2026.
According to Takashi*
Not sure where the other shit in the OP is coming from, but it's not from the article.
 
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According to Takashi*
Not sure where the other shit in the OP is coming from, but it's not from the article.
 
It would be so funny if they just overstock the market and then sellers are forced to lower the prices so they can get rid of the overstock.

Honestly I think it will have a somewhat strong start, they will celebrate calling it the best launch ever, bla bla bla, you know the drill. But depending on how Sony and Microsoft position their next gen console (in like just a couple of years) they will have a rough time, Switch 2 is already struggling to get current games running.

If they want to keep their "premium" pricing they might hit a big wall, there is no pandemic, and people spent more time on TikTok and streams than playing games.
 
France is not part of Europe now?

Also who the fuck cares how many consoles they sell are you the CEO or something?
Really? If they sell a shit ton, there will be a shit ton of games. If they sell a WiiUton, there will be no games. Of course people should care to some level.
 
Nintendo coming into Next Gen like a boss
Uirhxip.gif


chris-farley-laugh.gif
 
Nintendo is a fucking stupid company, Even if they do something right, they always manage to do something very stupid.

You really think the Switch 2 is gonna sell 20 million this easily?

There has been a pandemic, which devastated lots of the economy. Now there has been an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which further made inflation worse, On top of that there is an economic trade war emerging between the USA (run buy a lunatic) and China and the rest of the world. And don't forget the rise of AI and all that shit which makes people fearful for their jobs and future.

Do you really think that in this econimic environment with lots of inflation and uncertiny across the board within the populations of all countries, the average "gamer" is gonna easily flip out hundreds of dollars for Nintendo's next console and let them being charged 80 and 90 fucking dollars per game? It's not even the price of the console itself, but rather the ludicrously high prices of the additional expenses like peripherals and games, which will make people second guess their future spending really hard.
 
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It would be so funny if they just overstock the market and then sellers are forced to lower the prices so they can get rid of the overstock.

Honestly I think it will have a somewhat strong start, they will celebrate calling it the best launch ever, bla bla bla, you know the drill. But depending on how Sony and Microsoft position their next gen console (in like just a couple of years) they will have a rough time, Switch 2 is already struggling to get current games running.

If they want to keep their "premium" pricing they might hit a big wall, there is no pandemic, and people spent more time on TikTok and streams than playing games.
Keep coping. This will be the best selling console by some margin.

Again.
 
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Nintendo is a fucking stupid company, Even if they do something right, they always manage to do something very stupid.

You really think the Switch 2 is gonna sell 20 million this easily?

There has been a pandemic, which devastated lots of the economy. Now there has been an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which further made inflation worse, On top of that there is an economic trade war emerging between the USA (run buy a lunatic) and China and the rest of the world. And don't forget the rise of AI and all that shit which makes people fearful for their jobs and future.

Do you really think that in this econimic environment with lots of inflation and uncertiny across the board within the populations of all countries, the average "gamer" is gonna easily flip out hundreds of dollars for Nintendo's next console and let them being charged 80 and 90 fucking dollars per game? It's not even the price of the console itself, but rather the ludicrously high prices of the additional expenses like peripherals and games, which will make people second guess their future spending really hard.
break record known for my industry perdictions confirmed
 
20m is ambitious, to say the least.

I don't recall a manufacturer even having 20m units available at launch. But if anyone can do it, Nintendo can.
 
I don't know guys, I just didn't want to get caught up in that Christmas crap. Every kid is going to want one of these.
 
It will have a strong start. Not many are arguing against that. It's more the matter of whether or not it can keep the momentum going during a world economy in turmoil.
 
Oh, right. I forgot I can't post in your threads because you come off like a broken record. Thanks for the reminder.
im sorry my freinds yous can post buuuuut you saids switch sells wii u

will outsell wii u after christmas steem deck day 1 16 to 20 millions year one break sells record never stop selling many many games game over
 
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