Support NeoGAF

[Septimus Prime]

Past tickets are no longer valid. You definitely can't assume that there are 400mil tickets out there.

Oh yeah. I forgot about that.

What was the pot at before this drawing? $500 million? So there should be at least 150 million tickets in play now, assuming it all goes into the pot, so I guess it's 50/50.

EDIT: Also, to answer the original question, no. If I had $292 million, I wouldn't play the lottery.

 

[FyreWulff]

Question for GAF:

Consider the following, assuming there were no legal of physical constraints prohibiting the following scenario.

With a $800 million payout, the lump sum payout after taxes is now well north of $300 million.

If you had the opportunity and capacity to spend $292.2 million to purchase one ticket for every possible permutation in the Powerball, guaranteeing a jackpot ticket, would you bet that much money on a potential guaranteed profit, if...

1) No one else has the same plan as you and also spends $292.2 million to guarantee a Powerball win.

2) No other general participant in the lottery gets insanely lucky and happens to hold a winning ticket.

If there is more than one winner to the Powerball, then the gambit is a significant financial failure. If you are the only winner, then the gambit is a colossal success.

Would you take the risk that no one else would have the gravitas to commit $292.2 million (assuming that they see and understand the exact same loss conditions noted above) and that also no other general participant wins the Powerball to secure a $200 million profit (or more)?

The Powerball is specifically designed to not be vulnerable to a buy-all-permutations strategy. In fact, they made it even harder to do so recently by adding more permutations.

 

[adj_noun]

Ok, asked powerball simulator to just give me the winning numbers

7 15 30 41 43 11

There they are, the machine told me so.

 

[Makki]

The odds of any one ticket winning the jackpot is 1 in 292 million, but with the pot now at $800 million, and the cost of each ticket being $2, we can estimate that there are at least 400 million tickets in circulation (and that's assuming the entire ticket price goes into the pot, which most assuredly is not the case). Granted many tickets will have duplicate numbers, since not everyone plays Quick Pick, the likelihood of the game being won at all should be pretty close to 100%. So, if you spend $292 million to guarantee a win, there will almost certainly be another winner or more in the other tickets. It's a risky gamble.

If you had the 292 million there are many many many easier ways to make a few more mill with a lot less risk.

 

[NewGame]

The only winning move is to not play.

 

[mcfrank]

The only winning move is to not play.

But that is also one of the losing moves

 

[injurai]

But that is also one of the losing moves

You haven't lost anything if you didn't play.

 

[Gray Matter]

You haven't lost anything if you didn't play.

But you don't win if you don't play.

 

[Shadybiz]

I very rarely play the lottery..maybe a couple times a year. Couldn't resist buying 5 tickets for this, though. When it's this high, why the hell not.

 

[Eighty Deuce]

This is a safer investment than the Chinese stock market

 

[loaf of bread]

I love the ridiculousness of people feeling the need to buy tickets now because its so high now. As if the however many hundred million you would have gotten before wasn't 50 times more than you'd ever need.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

if I win I will buy the first 20 posters that pm me a videogame console and HDTV of their choice to go with whatever console they choose.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

I love the ridiculousness of people feeling the need to buy tickets now because its so high now. As if the however many hundred million you would have gotten before wasn't 50 times more than you'd ever need.

It's actually kind of funny too when you think about it; the odds would have been much better if they were buying into it earlier, before all the additional excitement around the historic jackpot.

 

[God Dayumm]

if I win I will buy the first 20 posters that pm me a videogame console and HDTV of their choice to go with whatever console they choose.

Hi! I just want a Wii U and Smash Bros, thx

 

[Lenardo]

i'll be grabbing 10 tickets tomorrow, if i win...I'm keeping it all Muhahaha!

 

[SmokeMaxX]

We should have a spreadsheet of everyone's numbers (even added anonymously via Google Docs) just so people on GAF don't have duplicates. It would also allow us to know if one of us wins (even if we don't know who it is).

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

The hype got to me and I ended up buying five tickets.

First (and last) time I'm ever going to do this.

 

[User1608]

Me and my entire department at my job are doing a pool lol. If I win I'm having a SW party for the fuck of it.

 

[Armadilo]

For this weekend's record drawing, about 65 percent of the possible number combinations will have been bought, officials with the Multi-State Lottery Association, which runs the Powerball game, said Friday. That percentage could rise if the jackpot estimate is increased — but even lottery officials say they don't know what to expect.

65% chance that someone will choose the numbers on Saturday

 

[StillEdge]

Bought 15 tickets on the way to San Diego today. Fuck it.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Then some nice little grandma from Florida takes it all again, lol.

RIP grandma.

Question for GAF:

Consider the following, assuming there were no legal of physical constraints prohibiting the following scenario.

With a $800 million payout, the lump sum payout after taxes is now well north of $300 million.

If you had the opportunity and capacity to spend $292.2 million to purchase one ticket for every possible permutation in the Powerball, guaranteeing a jackpot ticket, would you bet that much money on a potential guaranteed profit, if...

1) No one else has the same plan as you and also spends $292.2 million to guarantee a Powerball win.

2) No other general participant in the lottery gets insanely lucky and happens to hold a winning ticket.

If there is more than one winner to the Powerball, then the gambit is a significant financial failure. If you are the only winner, then the gambit is a colossal success.

Would you take the risk that no one else would have the gravitas to commit $292.2 million (assuming that they see and understand the exact same loss conditions noted above) and that also no other general participant wins the Powerball to secure a $200 million profit (or more)?

Aside from it being pretty much impossible for an individual to buy that many tickets in the three days you would have to commit more than the cash value is currently at to do it since Powerball costs $2 per line. $3 if the multiplayer is added. On the other hand you would also have thousands of other winning tickets totaling millions of dollars as well but still not enough to offset the near $600M "investment" and then you're doubly fucked when someone else also has the same numbers.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

I just went to the closest place to my home that has sold a winning ticket before lol

 

[Armadilo]

has anybody chosen random numbers with their eyes closed , yet ? You never know man

 

[Iced_Eagle]

I very rarely play the lottery..maybe a couple times a year. Couldn't resist buying 5 tickets for this, though. When it's this high, why the hell not.

Same.

This may have been my first powerball now that I think about it. Bought 5 since I was at the grocery store once I saw how much it was up to and figured why the hell not.

 

[jetsetnickradio]

I really hope someone wins the jackpot Saturday night. Work has been stressful as fuck the last couple of days. And guess what, I'm in charge of lotto at my store on Saturday >.>

 

[N.Domixis]

Id rather not play that way I can neither win or lose. If I played I would only lose.
I've had a simulation running for 3 days and I still haven't won. Its at around 5 million games and at 50,000 years now.

 

[JeffZero]

I really hope someone wins the jackpot Saturday night. Work has been stressful as fuck the last couple of days. And guess what, I'm in charge of lotto at my store on Saturday >.>

Alright, I empathize with you. I'll win.

 

[jetsetnickradio]

Alright, I empathize with you. I'll win.

Thanks brah

 

[Allonym]

I'm about to put $200 into this, hopefully some good comes of it!

 

[jetsetnickradio]

I'm about to put $200 into this, hopefully some good comes of it!

You could put a million into it and your odds would still be shit.

 

[LucidMomentum]

I think the most I'll ever get out of the lottery is the hope and excitement of knowing what I'd do with the money if I did win. But, then the smarter side of me knows not to get too hung up on it.

Still, I'm gonna throw a few dollars into it tomorrow. Why the hell not - if I win, it'll be pretty sweet.

 

[Glass Shark]

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

 

[hermit7]

Never play the lottery, but bought 2 tickets. I have no pretenses that I will win, but odds are better than zero.

Shit the thoughts of what I would do with the money alone are worth the proce of the ticket I bought.

 

[C-Drive]

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

Thanks for letting us know!

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

Get over yourself.

 

[Opto]

I buy a single ticket if I remember whenever it gets this big. I've maybe spent 10 bucks over the past ten years on tickets. I've lost more in loose change than that

 

[RedAssedApe]

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

lol...shit...well can i get a refund on this?

I buy a single ticket if I remember whenever it gets this big. I've maybe spent 10 bucks over the past ten years on tickets. I've lost more in loose change than that

same here...once it starts hitting locals news is when i'll buy a ticket. was just at a gas station and the credit card pin screen was flashing POWERBALL $800 mil at me so I bought one lol

 

[Glass Shark]

Get over yourself.

nah im good

 

[Allonym]

You could put a million into it and your odds would still be shit.

You can't be so pessimistic, well I guess rather you're being realistic but you have to be in it to win it. My odds could be garbage but I'd rather attempt and say I did it than sit and wonder what could have been. I see it being better than buying a video game with the money which is what I'd do in all likelihood.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

nah im good

 

[UltraMagnanimous]

So how do the lottery profits benefit people in the US?

In the UK it goes directly to arts and community projects... is the same stateside? When living in the UK you would hear a lot about how lottery funds are spent but less so in the states.

 

[Slayer-33]

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

A $2 line for a chance like this isn't something that's unreasonable. Totally worth being in it for that.

 

[Aguila]

So how do the lottery profits benefit people in the US?

In the UK it goes directly to arts and community projects... is the same stateside? When living in the UK you would hear a lot about how lottery funds are spent but less so in the states.

It goes to education/public schools in the US I think.

 

[BearPawB]

So how do the lottery profits benefit people in the US?

In the UK it goes directly to arts and community projects... is the same stateside? When living in the UK you would hear a lot about how lottery funds are spent but less so in the states.

I think it depends on the State, most i've lived in it goes to public education

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

It's fun.
People would call buying video games a waste of money .

 

[Trouble]

I honestly lose respect for anyone who buys a lottery ticket, and so many people who are otherwise very reasonable and logical people will do it.

It's $2 bro. It's not about logic. It's harmless fun to roll the 292.2 million sided die every once in awhile.

 

[Alcibiades]

Best of luck to GAF lol. Personally, I think this kind of money wouldn't be worth the nightmare. Friends and family would get harassed, I would get harassed, people would come up to you for everything with real legitimate issues. No thanks, I'll avoid the limelight and do my own thing thank you very much.

keep it a secret

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

So how do the lottery profits benefit people in the US?

In the UK it goes directly to arts and community projects... is the same stateside? When living in the UK you would hear a lot about how lottery funds are spent but less so in the states.

It goes to education/public schools in the US I think.

Heh, yeah when they say that they really should put an asterisk next to it since in doing so a lot of states ended up cutting general funding and letting the lottery make up for it instead of actually, full on increasing the money going to education.

 

[BearPawB]

keep it a secret

you don't have that choice in some states

 

[Vex_]

Hey guys. What were the winning numbers for jan09?

I can't check right now.

Edit I'm stupid never mind.

 

[Killing_Joke]

People act like no one wins. lol

Yes the odds suck, but eventually someone wins. So how is this stupid or waste of money? How many stories out there of people who never buy lotto tickets or scratch offs turn into millionaires the next second? That's the whole fun of the game. I'll rather waste a 100 bucks on a billion dollar powerball then sit in front of a slot machine for hours.

The fact it's at a 65% chance is pretty nuts. It would be crazy if it hits a 100% to guarantee a winner that night.