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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

F

Final Verdict

Member
The Shogun said:
Haha I told you guys its impossible for me to know. BF is a crazy day to track due to inventory level differences and deals / specials differences. Black Friday is one day of the year that different retailers can see totally different results.

Can't wait for NPD though
Click to expand...

It seems like Gamestop would be the most telling of all the retailers, because they didn't really have any out of the ordinary deals that added in extra games or giftcards or anything like that.

Target for example, will almost certainly have more X1 sales because of thier crazy giftcard deal, and wallmart had several deals for X1 & PS4 that could change things up, but because GS didn't have any of those special deals, it should be a good indicator of which one had more demand in general.

So what I would like to know is whether or not you saw a big trend going one way or the other, or if they were too close to tell?
 
S

...Scatter...

Banned
I'm just excited that we had so many great games with great discounts this Black Friday through Cyber Monday. I picked up Shadow of Mordor for $15 from the MS store after my $10 gift card I got for pre-ordering something or another a while back.

I need to find a great deal on Dragon Age for PS4 now. (I'm spoiled by these great sale prices). I'm probably going to trade in Advanced Warfighter which I haven't touched since launch day and pick up that up instead. I can't believe I am saying this, but COD is dead to me. Destiny feels a lot more rewarding.
 
S

Spazgadget

Member
[360] 140k
[3DS] 320k
[PS3] 90k
[PS4] 680k
[WIU] 240k
[XB1] 900k

Educated (or uneducated) guesses again from me. Considering the unprecedented lengths MS went to this month, I would be absolutely floored if the PS4 won this one. Not sure how MS is going to maintain the practice of giving away the farm with each console, but good for them for moving some units.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Aquamarine said:
That doesn't make any sense. Microsoft only has immediate access to Xbox One sell-in to retailers.

Microsoft has to call up Wal-Mart, GameStop, Target, Toys 'R' Us, K-Mart, Best Buy, and Amazon to get a 90-95% estimate for Xbox One sell-through.

Those retailers may not want to give Microsoft PS4 sales information because it's none of their damn business.

So why is it so surprising that Microsoft may not know if they won Black Friday or not?




Now that makes sense.
Click to expand...

Well Aqua claiming 'early' victories is what Microsoft has done for years.
It's nothing new, they have done it for past Black Fridays, they claimed best selling console in the last 10 days (LOL), most recent example is their post price cut PR where they claimed victory for 2-3 consecutive weeks including the week ended just a few days before the announcement.
I don't know how they do it, if they get some kind of weekly preview or not, but they do it.
And I doubt retailers are so wary of disclosing their general sales ranking considering many already do it publicly, Microsoft (like Sony and Nintendo) surely has convincing arguments if they wanted to know something and ultimately they already do it for NPD and other tracking companies.
So I'm not sure how to interpret your post here: 'whatever is announced so early shouldn't be taken for serious, wait for NPD in any case"?
 
D

Death2494

Member
Final Verdict said:
It seems like Gamestop would be the most telling of all the retailers, because they didn't really have any out of the ordinary deals that added in extra games or giftcards or anything like that.

Target for example, will almost certainly have more X1 sales because of thier crazy giftcard deal, and wallmart had several deals for X1 & PS4 that could change things up, but because GS didn't have any of those special deals, it should be a good indicator of which one had more demand in general.

So what I would like to know is whether or not you saw a big trend going one way or the other, or if they were too close to tell?
Click to expand...
Well ps4 Gta5 bundle was at the top of their best sellers online site
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Final Verdict said:
It seems like Gamestop would be the most telling of all the retailers, because they didn't really have any out of the ordinary deals that added in extra games or giftcards or anything like that.

Target for example, will almost certainly have more X1 sales because of thier crazy giftcard deal, and wallmart had several deals for X1 & PS4 that could change things up, but because GS didn't have any of those special deals, it should be a good indicator of which one had more demand in general.

So what I would like to know is whether or not you saw a big trend going one way or the other, or if they were too close to tell?
Click to expand...

You would think so but every GameStop source since the systems launched always say the XB1 is selling better than PS4 or sales are close. That may have to do with Xbox always being featured first when walking in any of their stores and the clerks always trying to sell Xbox products. At least that's my experience and I've been in gamespots from Wisconsin to Texas and as far East as Boston. All the same Xbox up front PS in the back.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
shinra-bansho said:
For reference, this is BF PR from the 360s best BF (from memory) in 2011.

http://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/201...-1m-consoles-in-biggest-week-in-xbox-history/

Lots of big numbers to tout. But there's only a tentative reference to likely being the best selling system near the end.

It was released on Tuesday.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Microsoft said "Xbox 360 should deliver its eleventh straight month as the number one console in the US."

With weak statements like "should," it'S a good example of how Microsoft isn't always 100% up-to-date with knowledge of its competitors.
 
D

Death2494

Member
Welfare said:
No time stamp for the hour it was posted though. When did MS release the PR for almost 10 million shipped?
Click to expand...
Price cut was on November 2nd. Press release was on November 12th sometime in the morning. They were only tracking about 9 1/2 days of sales.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
In 2007 and 2008 Microsoft said on PR that Xbox 360 outsold PS3 2:1 and 3:1 in Black Friday week.

This companies know how much others systems are selling, they don't need NPD to figure that out.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Miles X said:
Surprised and disappointed with no Nintendo PR. They could easily tout updated smash figures, Pokemon and 3DS.
Click to expand...

I could see a Nintendo PR / Reggie's interview about Smash, Pokémon and Amiibo today (I hope), and I think we'll probably get a MS PR as well today.
 
R

Rand6

Member
[XB1] 1200K
[PS4] 600K
[WIU] 250K
[3DS] 400K
[360] 400K
[PS3] 250K

Yes, I think Xbox One crushed the PS4. Maybe it's the start of a new trend (in the US?)? Because December will probably be the same.
 
C

crazyprac

Member
Rand6 said:
[XB1] 1200K
[PS4] 600K
[WIU] 250K
[3DS] 400K
[360] 400K
[PS3] 250K

Yes, I think Xbox One crushed the PS4. Maybe it's the start of a new trend (in the US?)? Because December will probably be the same.
Click to expand...

Yes omg Microsoft turned it around so fast! These awesome deals for this month will surely result in every month from now on Xbox will be #1!
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Duxxy3 said:
31 have picked the PS4 to win, 85 have picked the XB1.
Click to expand...
Wow, I know a lot of people don't want to admit it, but there will be meltdowns if Xbox wins, because there are still a lot of people who are picking PS4.
Of coarse if PS4 wins.....;p

Rand6 said:
[XB1] 1200K
[PS4] 600K
[WIU] 250K
[3DS] 400K
[360] 400K
[PS3] 250K

Yes, I think Xbox One crushed the PS4. Maybe it's the start of a new trend (in the US?)? Because December will probably be the same.
Click to expand...

All sources that we have indicate that the PS4 also did really well. If sales really were that bad, then I don't think we would have as many people questioning Xbox's victory as we do.

Also, as far as the trend goes, If they carry on the $350 price after the holidays, I could see them winning Jan. NPD, but I just don't see them getting past February/March as PS4 has two big exclusives coming out those months, and Xbox doesn't have anything to counter with.
 
2

2thepoint

Junior Member
Is Sony going to restock the GTA bundle for PS4 on Amazon?

Seem's strange that they are letting it slide in the face of Xbox One Unity bundle.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Final Verdict said:
Wow, I know a lot of people don't want to admit it, but there will be meltdowns if Xbox wins, because there are still a lot of people who are picking PS4.
Of coarse if PS4 wins.....;p
Click to expand...

If Xbox wins: Meh, expected.
If Xbox wins by huge amount (>45%): OH WOW (Meltdowns might happen)

If PS4 wins: OH WOW (Meltdowns)
If PS4 wins by huge amount (>45%): Dead.gifs and sea of gray
 
D

DustyVonEric

Member
Welfare said:
If Xbox wins: Meh, expected.
If Xbox wins by huge amount (>45%): OH WOW (Meltdowns might happen)

If PS4 wins: OH WOW (Meltdowns)
If PS4 wins by huge amount (>45%): Dead.gifs and sea of gray
Click to expand...

I think these are the most realistic scenarios.

I think the great majority of people expect MS to take Nov (and maybe even Dec), with the lower prices and great extra incentive deals they've had all month long.

The meltdown should only happen if PS wins or if MS doesn't win by a large margin. Because it then becomes, what more can MS possibly do to make up some ground in NA?

If PS4 loses, everyone knows Sony still has more options to boost sales before even considering a price drop (strong early 2015 line-up, free Plus, new bundles, etc). And it's still selling well anyways at it's original price point right now, so there's not that immediate need for concern (or meltdown).

The most intriguing thing in all of this to me is, how much longer is MS willing to have such great pricing and deals? It has to be costing them a ton of money. But they can't go back to the $400+ pricing, can they?
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
[XB1] 999K
[PS4] 666K
[3DS] 450K
[WIU] 350K
[360] 300K
[PS3] 250K
*

XB1's extremely competitive price drops, bundles and offers will have boosted the sales enormously.
PS4 will have a strong month but not ground breaking compared to XB1 due to the PS4's higher price point, less bundles and possibly a constrained supply**

* subject to change
** personal opinion that shipments are focused elsewhere

Should be a good month. Enjoying the discussion. Need more graphs :D
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Oh what the hell, might as well take a crack at this.

[XB1] 1250K
[PS4] 875K
[3DS] 500K
[WIU] 375K
[360] 300K
[PS3] 175K
 
F

FullMetaltech

Member
DustyVonEric said:
I think these are the most realistic scenarios.

I think the great majority of people expect MS to take Nov (and maybe even Dec), with the lower prices and great extra incentive deals they've had all month long.

The meltdown should only happen if PS wins or if MS doesn't win by a large margin. Because it then becomes, what more can MS possibly do to make up some ground in NA?

If PS4 loses, everyone knows Sony still has more options to boost sales before even considering a price drop (strong early 2015 line-up, free Plus, new bundles, etc). And it's still selling well anyways at it's original price point right now, so there's not that immediate need for concern (or meltdown).

The most intriguing thing in all of this to me is, how much longer is MS willing to have such great pricing and deals? It has to be costing them a ton of money. But they can't go back to the $400+ pricing, can they?
Click to expand...

They still can. All they have to do it make an 399 SKU with a game and keep the 349 as the base price for the regular one with no game. Anything cut below the 349 mark will probably keep them bleeding as it is.
 
J

jcm

Member
Aquamarine said:
That doesn't make any sense. Microsoft only has immediate access to Xbox One sell-in to retailers.

Microsoft has to call up Wal-Mart, GameStop, Target, Toys 'R' Us, K-Mart, Best Buy, and Amazon to get a 90-95% estimate for Xbox One sell-through.
Click to expand...

Don't most retailers scan serial numbers for consoles nowadays? I know Sony uses the system Nintendo invented, which used to be called SIRAS POS Electronic Registration, and I thought MS did too. That gives them very good internal tracking of their own sell-through numbers.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
jcm said:
Don't most retailers scan serial numbers for consoles nowadays? I know Sony uses the system Nintendo invented, which used to be called SIRAS POS Electronic Registration, and I thought MS did too. That gives them very good internal tracking of their own sell-through numbers.
Click to expand...

Yes, that's definitely a source that the Big 3 might use.

A few things about IPC / SIRAS:

1) It's used at participating retailers only, and sometimes it's not easy to convince retailers to use it (or they might change their minds).

2) It's intended more for returns management than it is for comprehensive sell-through tracking at the SKU level. But it certainly helps internal tracking be more complete when used in conjunction with phone calls.
 
Square2015

Square2015

Member
Aquamarine said:
Well, Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo like to regularly track a rough estimate of their console sell-through by keeping in contact with major retailers.

But it's quite a bit harder for them to get access to competitor data outside of NPD / GfK.

You know...Wal-Mart might be compliant when they want regular Xbox One sales updates...but not so much for regular PS4 sales updates.

So this may just be a matter of waiting for full-month results to get the full picture before bragging.
Click to expand...

Interesting. So what was the situation in January 1992 when both Sega and Nintendo corrected each other's provided sales numbers? How were they tracking numbers back then?
 
A

AstroNut325

Member
Welfare said:
If Xbox wins: Meh, expected.
If Xbox wins by huge amount (>45%): OH WOW (Meltdowns might happen)

If PS4 wins: OH WOW (Meltdowns)
If PS4 wins by huge amount (>45%): Dead.gifs and sea of gray
Click to expand...

Yup. Has to be one of those scenarios. Which one? We will have to wait over a week!

In the year 2014 where digital information is instantaneous... we have to wait 2+ weeks after a month end to obtain sales information. How are companies ok with this?
 
F

Frag Waffles

Member
Hmm. The silence is deafening. I expected a multiple page thread on Microsoft's PR by the time I checked today if they had clearly taken BF. It may be a lot closer than people originally thought and based on what I saw on BF, that wouldn't surprise me.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
AstroNut325 said:
In the year 2014 where digital information is instantaneous... we have to wait 2+ weeks after a month end to obtain sales information. How are companies ok with this?
Click to expand...

NPD does a mediocre job. I can't believe they don't have capacity to provide weekly sales.
 
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