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[Nirolak]

That looks really awesome for Kingdom Hearts.

That NSMB2 number also looks pretty good considering it was out for only 11 days. I wonder if it can carry any of that momentum into September. Or, more importantly, November.

Out of curiosity, how does everyone think the top 5 will look like in November? I'm thinking:

1. Black Ops 2
2. Halo 4
3. Assassin's Creed 3 (Am I underestimating AC?)
4. NSMB 2 (probably a 3DS XL bundle on Black Friday)
5. NSMB U?

Am I missing any other huge titles in November? Just Dance? Do the sports games usually get a huge bump? Is 2 Marios cracking the top 5 in the cards?

Here's last year:

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (360, PS3, WII, PC)** Activision Blizzard 8.99 million (Less than 100K on Wii, even less on PC Retail)
2. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (360, PS3, PC)** Bethesda Softworks - 2.8 million
3. Battlefield 3 (360, PS3, PC)** Electronic Arts
4. Assassin's Creed: Revelations (360, PS3, PC) Ubisoft - ~1.26 million
5. Just Dance 3 (Wii, 360) Ubisoft
6. Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2)** Electronic Arts
7. Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception (PS3)** Sony - 700k
8. Saints Row: The Third (360, PS3, PC)** THQ
9. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (WII) ** Nintendo
10. Batman: Arkham City (360, PS3, PC)** Warner Bros. Interactive

The biggest games this Fall that you didn't mention are Resident Evil 6, Borderlands 2, NBA 2K13, Madden 13, Medal of Honor: Warfighter, Need For Speed: Most Wanted, Skylanders Giants, World of Warcraft: Mists of Pandaria, Pokemon Black & White 2, and Epic Mickey 2.

Far Cry 3, a bit of a wild card, won't be out until December.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Playstation all stars

We have to see whether it gets bundled and how its marketed

in the sony tgs thread, new ps3 model is hinted

NPD doesn't count bundled games.

 

[nhlducks35]

So Vita did not see an increase over July, which puts it under 47K for the month. Okay.

.

 

[grimshawish]

That looks really awesome for Kingdom Hearts.

That NSMB2 number also looks pretty good considering it was out for only 11 days. I wonder if it can carry any of that momentum into September. Or, more importantly, November.

Out of curiosity, how does everyone think the top 5 will look like in November? I'm thinking:

1. Black Ops 2
2. Halo 4
3. Assassin's Creed 3 (Am I underestimating AC?)
4. NSMB 2 (probably a 3DS XL bundle on Black Friday)
5. NSMB U?

Am I missing any other huge titles in November? Just Dance? Do the sports games usually get a huge bump? Is 2 Marios cracking the top 5 in the cards?

Overestimating Halo imo. I think its coming to an end now and the market has changed. Its been stretched out a bit too much too with spin offs that weren't of the quality needed.
AC3 should be above Halo with probably some of the games Duck mentions being above it too.


NSMBU? God knows. Could be anywhere but Number 1 there.

 

[Seven Force]

Yikes at those KH sales.

Shame about Sleeping Dogs, I was hoping it'd be higher.

 

[onipex]

Can we all finally agree that iOS has taken a sizable chunk out of the portable handheld market?

No, but we can agree that Nintendo has not been able to bring those gamers over to the 3DS that same way they struggled to bring them to the DS at the start.

 

[Pranay]

Overestimating Halo imo. I think its coming to an end now and the market has changed. Its been stretched out a bit too much too with spin offs that weren't of the quality needed.

AC3 should be above Halo.


NSMBU? God knows. Could be anywhere but Number 1 there.

your underestimating halo

 

[Miles X]

Overestimating Halo imo. I think its coming to an end now and the market has changed. Its been stretched out a bit too much too with spin offs that weren't of the quality needed.

AC3 should be above Halo.


NSMBU? God knows. Could be anywhere but Number 1 there.

And you're underestimating it, there is nothing to suggest it's coming to an end, the last mainline one was Reach 2 years ago that did 3.3m in September. With it being november, and having Black friday (not to mention it being a numeral sequel and having a lot more hype) it'll pass 4m very easily.

Not to mention... no Bungie this time.

Which is proving to be a very good thing, and few buy into the Bungie name like Rockstar ...

 

[grimshawish]

your underestimating halo

Your overestimating Halo Am just putting out my thoughts, could easily be wrong - just feel its going to get drowned out.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Overestimating Halo imo. I think its coming to an end now and the market has changed. Its been stretched out a bit too much too with spin offs that weren't of the quality needed.
AC3 should be above Halo with probably some of the games Duck mentions being above it too.

Not to mention... no Bungie this time.

 

[SykoTech]

what's funny is that they finally released kh re:com in dec 2008 (!) for ps2 (!!),why they didn't just port that to wii is beyond me

Eh, that one was best on the PS2. Being able to get the full series from the start to KHII on one console was the best decision. A Wii port in addition wouldn't have hurt I suppose, but I doubt it would have done much either.

That looks really awesome for Kingdom Hearts.

I assume you were just looking at its position and not the actual number...

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Peace Walker bombed with ~50K units. The God of War sequel sold unbelievably badly. No PSP games had charted since Dissidia the previous year. BbS did what it did because of the strength of the franchise alone, and DDD should have done better than it.

And I bet it did, when you compare the attach rates for when both were released. I'm sure had the game come out years after it's launch like BBS, the DDD numbers would be much higher.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

It was released in early 2007 in Japan, and was announced before Wii was even released.

Geez, it was that long ago? *rubs head* Doesn't seem like it..

 

[Pranay]

Your overestimating Halo

master cheif + numbered series + ms marketing

Will do 3-4 millions +

 

[OldJadedGamer]

And you're underestimating it, there is nothing to suggest it's coming to an end, the last mainline one was Reach 2 years ago that did 3.3m in September. With it being november, and having Black friday (not to mention it being a numeral sequel and having a lot more hype) it'll pass 4m very easily.

The main developer left the series. We have no idea how much of an effect this will have until its out.

 

[Plinko]

Expect it to be all but dead by the time the PS4 comes out. At best it will be a Playstation Mobile device with buttons.

I'm already in the process of convincing myself that I bought mine to be a portable PSX/PSP with an OLED screen

 

[Miles X]

The main developer left the series. We have no idea how much of an effect this will have until its out.

If you follow the info released so far we have a very good idea. It's also ranking higher on intent to buy lists in the US (above BO2) and is doing very well in pre orders.

 

[Plinko]

No, but we can agree that Nintendo has not been able to bring those gamers over to the 3DS that same way they struggled to bring them to the DS at the start.

I disagree completely.

I think it's insane to say that it hasn't taken a sizable chunk out of the market, as we had not only a new Nintendo portable with a decent gimmick (glasses-free 3D), we also have a fairly powerful high-tech portable from Sony as well that is doing much, much worse.

The writing is on the wall. And you blame Nintendo? Even if you included Sony in the equation, it's still not their fault for "not bringing those gamers over." iOS offers a ton of cheap games, some of which of pretty decent content. The market is huge for that type of game.

I'm not really sure Nintendo/Sony can do much more.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

master cheif + numbered series + ms marketing

Will do 3-4 millions +

It's a looker as well, which should help.

I think Halo 4 will benefit from so many titles moving to 2013 too - fewer games to divide people's attention, so more 360 gamers will turn to Halo.

 

[Duxxy3]

The main developer left the series. We have no idea how much of an effect this will have until its out.

Diablo 3 proved that having the original developers mean nothing when it comes to sales.

Quality on the other hand...

 

[shinra-bansho]

Do the majority of those 3.3M that bought Reach/3 actually realise that Halo 4 is being made by a different developer?

If they do, do they care?

Maybe I'm being to cynical about the mass market.

 

[Pranay]

I disagree completely.

I think it's insane to say that it hasn't taken a sizable chunk out of the market, as we had not only a new Nintendo portable with a decent gimmick (glasses-free 3D), we also have a fairly powerful high-tech portable from Sony as well that is doing much, much worse.

The writing is on the wall.

They havnt adapted well to the new market. and Yup mobiles have taken a huge share of chunks

Do the majority of those 3.3M that bought Reach/3 actually realise that Halo 4 is being made by a different developer?

If they do, do they care?

Maybe I'm being to cynical about the mass market.

Casuals will see master cheif + better graphics and no 4 written on it

and hardcore will buy the game obviously

Halo is still the most popular game on GAf as well lol and have recieved well by them

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

3DS numbers have been sub par for months and after all the big releases dosn't get any better. Nintendo has a problem.

Nintendo doesn't have the problem. They are still making bank with the 3DS. Worldwide, the 3DS may not be hot, but it's still doing good and making a profit. Handheld sales(especially in NA) have changed. People need to change their expectations. Mobile gaming is here and has changed the game.

 

[MasterSheen]

Ouch at everything except Mario, I guess. First week was just a little below DSII total.

 

[Tookay]

Do the majority of those 3.3M that bought Reach/3 actually realise that Halo 4 is being made by a different developer?

If they do, do they care?

Maybe I'm being to cynical about the mass market.

I think you're spot-on, honestly. Developer is irrelevant for the majority of consumers of AAA games.

 

[Syphon Filter]

And you're underestimating it, there is nothing to suggest it's coming to an end, the last mainline one was Reach 2 years ago that did 3.3m in September. With it being november, and having Black friday (not to mention it being a numeral sequel and having a lot more hype) it'll pass 4m very easily.



Which is proving to be a very good thing, and few buy into the Bungie name like Rockstar ...

not proving to be good at all.many fans are pissed for it copying cod.the franchise lost tons of steam to cod too.

 

[Gadfly]

from OP:

PS3: Above last month, below 218K (last year)

Shouldn't this say below 193K (360 numbers)?

 

[MrCunningham]

Minecraft 360 ended up being incredibly lucrative! Oh how I wish I had that with 4 player splitscreen back during my kid days spendin the night with friends. Must be great fun!

Minecraft really is one of the biggest success stories of this generation. Amazing how it went from a small indie game to one of the biggest sellers on XBLA. With this and New Super Mario Bros. 2, does it mean that gamers are getting tired of hardcore/ dark gritty cinematic driven games, and are looking for something more lighthearted/ creative and more gameplay driven?

We are headed to a -50% holiday season. It will be ugly.

It really depends on how well consumers will react to the Nintendo Wii-U this Christmas. But yeah, it doesn't look too promising for the console market. It seems like this generation is starting to run out of gas. Time to switch over to Steam powered gaming

 

[Daschysta]

They didn't bite this generation though, when Nintendo offered them a way out of this AAA death spiral. Instead, most devs continued on with the arms race.

This time the difference won't be nearly as large though. You can make a game on Wii-U that looks pretty (lots of games this gen look pretty, leap or no leap), and is a marginal upgrade over current gen, compared to a Wii game, which even with tons of work would just never look even appealing side to side with a 360ps3 game. Put enough work into a Wii-U game and it can be beautiful, regardless of what it is compared to, even if the other stuff is technically superior, and likely for cheaper as well. We'll see.

Not sure Western developers other than Ubisoft, who looks to be a great supporter will bite beyond token ports, but Japanese studios may have no other choice, they barely are keeping up with rigors of making games on current machines, and Wii-U will most likely be the king console in the home country.


If Nintendo makes good on the rumours of a price in the 250 dollar range I think it could inject some life back into the industry. NSMB2 is selling as well or better than NSMB did when it released, and that is before considering digital downloads, which are much more popular here than they are in Japan. NSMB Wii U should be pretty huge, and stuff like Wii- Fit could catch on again as well, depending on what they've done with it.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

I think you're spot-on, honestly. Developer is irrelevant for the majority of consumers of AAA games.

Look at Black Ops. Did people care that it was made by a lesser team?

 

[Basileus777]

Nintendo doesn't have the problem. They are still making bank with the 3DS. Worldwide, the 3DS may not be hot, but it's still doing good and making a profit.

Making bank doesn't really describe Nintendo's financial history with the 3ds, quite the opposite really.

Look at Black Ops. Did people care that it was made by a lesser team?

Well it wasn't made by a lesser team.

 

[Crazyorloco]

It's still mind boggling to me that Square-Enix didn't at least release a Wii collection of KH1, KH 2, and BBS. Kingdom Hearts 3 would of made a ton of sense too, considering how well Epic Mickey sold.

Going full handheld makes sense in Japan, but nowhere else (especially this gen of handhelds).

So true. It would've sold plenty on the Wii. And no kh 3 on any any console this gen is sad.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Nintendo doesn't have the problem. They are still making bank with the 3DS. Worldwide, the 3DS may not be hot, but it's still doing good and making a profit. Handheld sales(especially in NA) have changed. People need to change their expectations. Mobile gaming is here and has changed the game.

It's a problem in the sense it's been a problem for a while. And people used to say: but the numbers don't reflect it, so it's not a problem. This trend is a permanent change. And it's only going to get worse and worse with each passing year. So it's a problem. What they can do about it is a tuff question, but it's most certainly a problem they can't be feeling good about.

 

[Plinko]

Making bank doesn't really describe Nintendo's financial history with the 3ds, quite the opposite really.

Yeah, I'm curious to know when they'll break even on it. Didn't they just start making profit quite recently?

 

[coldfoot]

Do the majority of those 3.3M that bought Reach/3 actually realise that Halo 4 is being made by a different developer?
If they do, do they care?

Looking at COD, I'd say not at all.

 

[Mik_Pad]

Look at Black Ops. Did people care that it was made by a lesser team?

Lesser team?!

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Making bank doesn't really describe Nintendo's financial history with the 3ds, quite the opposite really.

And now they are making a profit again. And since then, they have been selling pretty well.

 

[ezekial45]

Yikes, those numbers are rough.

 

[~Kinggi~]

Lesser team?!

He is referring to how the quality of person at Treyarch is far inferior to the mighty folk at Infinity Ward. !

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Stop underestimating Halo. Dont be stupid guys its fucking Halo. Bungie leaving dont mean shit..its mothafuckin Halo 4!

 

[Nirolak]

from OP:



Shouldn't this say below 193K (360 numbers)?

That's a good point.

 

[Phonomezer]

Zombies are the only reason people are buying Black Ops 2. Sleeping Dogs will be there next month.

 

[Daschysta]

People have to keep in mind that the Economy isn't doing well at all either, and luxury items like consoles, that serve no other function than gaming are even less appealing than usual, compared to a phone you can play games on too, not to mention you can get phones subsidized by your plan...

The Economy may not recover for a few years, but the outlook will be significantly better once it does. It shouldn't really suprise anyone that the industry isn't doing well atm, it is exactly the type of product that tends to suffer most when people have less extra money lying around, video games aren't exactly essential for most people, when they are having trouble paying the bills, or their mortgages.

 

[Mik_Pad]

He is referring to how the quality of person at Treyarch is far inferior to the mighty folk at Infinity Ward. !

LOL!

 

[shinra-bansho]

Casuals will see master cheif + better graphics and no 4 written on it

and hardcore will buy the game obviously

Halo is still the most popular game on GAf as well lol and have recieved well by them

I think you're spot-on, honestly. Developer is irrelevant for the majority of consumers of AAA games.

Looking at COD, I'd say not at all.

Yeah, that's my general sentiment.

There are certain IPs where the IP brand is probably a lot stronger than the developer's brand of quality, and Halo is one of them.

When Bungie's new IP comes out, I'm reasonably certain it will be marketed as "From the makers of Halo."

That's a good point.

Can probably put "Below last month." for the Wii too.

Maybe Vita, but that's more iffy reading the statement in full.

Vita's new lowest month.

Scratch that.

 

[Nirolak]

People have to keep in mind that the Economy isn't doing well at all either, and luxury items like consoles, that serve no other function than gaming are even less appealing than usual, compared to a phone you can play games on too, not to mention you can get phones subsidized by your plan...

The Economy may not recover for a few years, but the outlook will be significantly better once it does. It shouldn't really suprise anyone that the industry isn't doing well atm, it is exactly the type of product that tends to suffer most when people have less extra money lying around, video games aren't exactly essential for most people, when they are having trouble paying the bills, or their mortgages.

Well, one other aspect you're not mentioning here is that you can also go buy an excellent game (new or used) for like $10-$15 instead of a new $60 title as well.

Or buy a new map pack for your old game and play that for two more months instead.

Or Minecraft.

 

[creamsugar]

Vita's new lowest month.

 

[Heart of Black]

I don't understand why people keep saying "bring on next gen". So that what, hardware can be scarce and new games based on new tech can sell sub a million units at the launch?

This gen has lots of great games, but gaming fans just don't seem to care. Though I think DSII's numbers are close to the firsts in terms of sales the first month.

But new hardware isn't going to magically spark people's interest again.

 

[yon61]

Vita's new lowest month.

Oh snap

 

[Mik_Pad]

Yeah, that's my general sentiment.

There are certain IPs where the IP brand is probably a lot stronger than the developer's brand of quality, and Halo is one of them.

When Bungie's new IP comes out, I'm reasonably certain it will be marketed as "From the makers of Halo."

Can probably put "Below last month." for the Wii too.

Maybe Vita, but that's more iffy reading the statement in full.

Is sad but it stands true only fir the mainstream.