I think Nintendo will do well despite what some of you think, to many of you are negative. The fact that Nintendo has started advertising in theaters this early insures their chances of a successful Christmas season. RE4 will be marketed through November up till launch, demos, magazine ads, commercials will be in full effect.
If you go by demographics Nintendo most successful time of the year is the Christmas season. Kids don't have the funds to purchase consoles all through the year. Adults do, thats why Sony, and MS do so well from march and up. Now if you consider RE4 to be a system seller than you can assume that a good number of the Cubes sold during December will partially be in part to anticipation of its impending release. IF this holds true then numbers for MP2:E should surpass some of are expectations.
Its very possible Paper Mario 2 may be a hit, you have to consider demographics and the current installed base. The majority gamers that own MK
D are of the younger age, so PM2 could possibly sell systems aswell. Don't forget that the demographic you are apart of isn't the only one that exsist.
Halo2, with out a doubt going to sell systems. I see it selling another million consoles in America. Europe, I'm not even going to try to guess. Now, as for Fable I think its going to just past up Kotor, but its not going to be a million seller, worldwide maybe but not in the U.S.
GTA:S, this is the hardest to put a finger on because of the changes, the main character being black may turn some off. GT4 may be the big hit, and KZ may be a sleeping giant, possibly turn out to be the next big PS franchise.