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NPD June 2012 Results [Up1: Microsoft/Nintendo Hardware, Lego Batman 2, Lollipop]

Miles X

Member
Price cuts happen, and its doing these numbers in a crap economy, and its outpacing what the ds did, which also had a slow start

Do I expect this to be another 150 million seller? Hell the frick no

But Do I expect it to at least do the nintendo portable name proud? I sure do

Please, dpnt start insulting, its lame.

I didn't insult you I made an observation (which it seems several others did here as well)

You said 130m earlier in the thread ...

Price cuts don't usually happen less than 6 months after launch, usually not so big either. You can't just shrug it off as any old price cut. Interestingly enough the DS's second June was huge ... it may be ahead on an alligned scale (which means nothing relative to here and now) but at the same time period as DS? It was at 600k~, are you ignoring that?
 
I didn't insult you I made an observation (which it seems several others did here as well)

You said 130m earlier in the thread ...

Price cuts don't usually happen less than 6 months after launch, usually not so big either. You can't just shrug it off as any old price cut. Interestingly enough the DS's second June was huge ... it may be ahead on an alligned scale (which means nothing relative to here and now) but at the same time period as DS? It was at 600k~, are you ignoring that?

This is not a fair comparison at all. The DS lite released the month before along with the first New Super Mario Bros releasing that month. If anything we should compare sales in August to the sales in June of 06.
 
You made an insulting observation which isnt true. I own every system. I have no bias. I route for all systems to succeed.........

I said between 85-130 as I recall........

"Price cuts don't usually happen less than 6 months after launch, usually not so big either."

ask the ps3 about that


No, thats valid, but its not the same time.


This is not a fair comparison at all. The DS lite released the month before.

I agree.


To be fair I dont think any system ever again will do 600k in a month unless its the holidays
 

Miles X

Member
This is not a fair comparison at all. The DS lite released the month before.

Do you know what DS did the following August and September? That'd be a better way to gage then. Still, if the Lite propelled the DS to around 600k in the summer months, that's significant, the price cut never did that did it? Didn't it only do 850k or something in November of all months last year.

Actually the DS got its real boost from New Super Mario Bros and Pokemon which is releasing in a month. Mario Kart didn't really give it that much of a boost. Mario Kart is more of game that sells with the trend of how the system is doing. If a system does extremely well (Wii,DS) Mario Kart does well along with it. And 3D Mario is no comparison for selling compared to a 2d Mario game. I think we really need to save the discussion for August NPD


I'd say we need to wait until next spring to see how NSMB2 (and XL) affect things. I really somehow doubt both are going to affect sales for more than 6 months but hey I could be wrong.
 
^ try to stay positive. Its not in anyone's best interest for systems to fail.

The way this industry is going. I wouldnt be suprised though
 
I'd say we need to wait until next spring to see how NSMB2 (and XL) affect things. I really somehow doubt both are going to affect sales for more than 6 months but hey I could be wrong.

By next spring they'll also have released Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion 2, and Animal Crossing. I'm not saying they will pull DS Lite numbers here, but no dedicated system will likely ever pull DS Lite or Wii numbers again.
 

Miles X

Member
You made an insulting observation which isnt true. I own every system. I have no bias. I route for all systems to succeed.........

I said between 85-130 as I recall........

"Price cuts don't usually happen less than 6 months after launch, usually not so big either."

ask the ps3 about that


No, thats valid, but its not the same time.




To be fair I dont think any system ever again will do 600k in a month unless its the holidays

I didn't call you a FB, you could be like this for Sony and MS as well for all I know/care, you just seem to look on the bright side of things all the time and refuse to entertain the idea all might not be rosey, go and read all your posts back in this thread and you'll see what I mean.

I have no idea about PS3 price cuts early in its life, I do know that's a unique situation and isn't really comparable to anything else though, being $600 n'all.

Will the 3DS be 'fine' if it continues these sorts of figures during summer months in the years ahead, or are you expecting something to make a major shift in how well it sells? if so what?

^ try to stay positive. Its not in anyone's best interest for systems to fail.

The way this industry is going. I wouldnt be suprised though

I don't see how my, yours or anyone elses opinion here is going to change the fate (whatever it maybe) of videogame systems. I don't want anything to fail, doesn't mean I'm going to bury my head in the sand, ignore all the signs and pretend everything is doing fine. Just because someone doesn't share the same outlook as you doesn't mean they want something to fail! 3DS/Vita >>>>>>>>> Mobiles imo.
 
Being positive is alot more fun than being negative thats for sure.

The ps3 as I recall it got a 100 dollar price drop almost immediately.


"Will the 3DS be 'fine' if it continues these sorts of figures during summer months in the years ahead, or are you expecting something to make a major shift in how well it sells? if so what?"

The summer unfortunately has become dry for all games.


By next spring they'll also have released Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion 2, and Animal Crossing. I'm not saying they will pull DS Lite numbers here, but no dedicated system will likely ever pull DS Lite or Wii numbers again.

WII numbers, maybe.........ds lite numbers? not a chance in hell
 

kswiston

Member
iKOtbGhT7PqdQ.png

Ouch. I guess those "early 3DS is like early DS" sales comparisons are starting to break down. Hopefully the 3DS picks up in North America. At least sales in Japan are still strong. Vita doesn't even have that to fall back on.

I will be happy with my 3DS purchase as long as Fire Emblem makes it to North America, and we get the rest of what was announced at E3, but Vita is turning out to be less of a definite buy for me than I thought it would. I can't see Sony persisting in the handheld field after this generation.
 
@kswiston

They havent broken down. Not yet anyway. And so what if they do? If anything the ps3 has taught me, being the second act to a 150 mil selling system its impossible to duplicate it


FE is coming to america.........
 

Miles X

Member
Being optimistic is alot more fun than being realistic thats for sure.


The summer unfortunately has become dry for all games.

Fixed. That as may be, but it's also a waste of time and discussion.

Yeah I realise that, doesn't really answer my question though, I wanna know what is going to suddenly prop up 3DS sales and keep them in a respectable range for years to come?
 
You can be optimistic and realistic. If it doesnt sell 150 mil, that doesnt make it a failure.

It could be anything. Did you expect monster hunter to become so huge for the psp? I didnt.

Did I expect a ds gta? I didnt.

So asking me to predict what game will be that magical game, I am not a time traveler.

For this year it could be epic mickey, it could be castlevania, it could be layton 5, it could be paper mario, it could be luigis mansion 2, it could be anything
 
The GBA was Nintendo at their best. Released at the perfect time, at a cheap price (99 bucks) with well priced software. Unlike the 3DS which I think is still too expensive for the market dedicated handhelds can thrive with (which is mainly kids and some teenagers). 40 dollar software is not inviting at all.
Agreed, I think Nintendo made a big mistake moving away from the Game Boy's "withered technology" in their handheld line. A $99 Nintendo handheld today with $20-30 retail games would probably kill in the marketplace.
 

Miles X

Member
You can be optimistic and realistic. If it doesnt sell 150 mil, that doesnt make it a failure.

It could be anything. Did you expect monster hunter to become so huge for the psp? I didnt.

Did I expect a ds gta? I didnt.

So asking me to predict what game will be that magical game, I am not a time traveler.

For this year it could be epic mickey, it could be castlevania, it could be layton 5, it could be paper mario, it could be luigis mansion 2, it could be anything

Never said at any point it'd be a failure ... just that it's silly at this point to think it'll get anywhere near DS lifetime, that includes 130m. Your argument seems to be 'wait and see, something, I don't know what, is gonna come along and make 3DS explode!'

Seems like a lot of wishful thinking, and lets not forget it's going to be infinitely harder for a breakout hit like that to happen again given the chances it can be carried over to mobiles is a big one, and though you may not like mobile gaming it's kinda evident a lot of people do.
 
Ouch. I guess those "early 3DS is like early DS" sales comparisons are starting to break down. Hopefully the 3DS picks up in North America. At least sales in Japan are still strong. Vita doesn't even have that to fall back on.

I will be happy with my 3DS purchase as long as Fire Emblem makes it to North America, and we get the rest of what was announced at E3, but Vita is turning out to be less of a definite buy for me than I thought it would. I can't see Sony persisting in the handheld field after this generation.

Not at all. June 2006 is 4 months ahead of where the 3DS is now and the DS had been through 2 holiday seasons at that point.
 
Never said at any point it'd be a failure ... just that it's silly at this point to think it'll get anywhere near DS lifetime, that includes 130m. Your argument seems to be 'wait and see, something, I don't know what, is gonna come along and make 3DS explode!'

Seems like a lot of wishful thinking, and lets not forget it's going to be infinitely harder for a breakout hit like that to happen again given the chances it can be carried over to mobiles is a big one, and though you may not like mobile gaming it's kinda evident a lot of people do.

I think the fact that I said between 85-130 means I dont think its going to get near the ds life time either. There is a big 20 million gap between 130 and 150.


My argument is its doing fine right now, and lets see how things progress.

Your last point doesnt make any sense, since the odds games will be ported to mobiles is a minuscule one......

Alright, you had that monster hunter social game. But thats not the monster hunter the fans go crazy for.

I like mobile gaming. I like it alot. But without controls, its the secondary option
 
I don't think the 3DS will have the 6 year lifespan the DS had before a successor is release. I think it'll be closer to the GBA's 3.5 years rather than 6.
 

Miles X

Member
I think the fact that I said between 85-130 means I dont think its going to get near the ds life time either. There is a big 20 million gap between 130 and 150.


My argument is its doing fine right now, and lets see how things progress.

Your last point doesnt make any sense, since the odds games will be ported to mobiles is a minuscule one......

Alright, you had that monster hunter social game. But thats not the monster hunter the fans go crazy for.

I like mobile gaming. I like it alot. But without controls, its the secondary option

I imagin going forward, anything that resembles a breakout on dedicated handhelds, would be ported (or ripped off) on mobiles. I still don't know what your argument is, 'wait and see'? if so no, your argument is not fine.
 
I imagin going forward, anything that resembles a breakout on dedicated handhelds, would be ported (or ripped off) on mobiles. I still don't know what your argument is, 'wait and see'? if so no, your argument is not fine.

I dont think thats ever going to happen to be honestly unless your refering to a social companion game. My arguement is things are fine, and we will see. There is no wait.


I don't think the 3DS will have the 6 year lifespan the DS had before a successor is release. I think it'll be closer to the GBA's 3.5 years rather than 6.

Thats an interesting thought. Whats the ds on now? Like year 8 and its still getting titles?

Its possible, they might try a short run.

Not sure how people would respond ( me personally I wont like it)
 

Dalthien

Member
I don't think the 3DS will have the 6 year lifespan the DS had before a successor is release. I think it'll be closer to the GBA's 3.5 years rather than 6.

Now that's just crazy talk. :)

There's no way they take losses on the 3DS for a good part of the first 1.5 years, to only have 1.5-2 years of profit on the back end. They've been taking these losses upfront to build a userbase infrastructure that will allow them to profit off of software for several years. Heck - they kept Gamecube going for more than 5 years without a successor because even with the rotten hardware sales, they still had an infrastructure in place which allowed them to profit off of all their 1st-party stuff.

You have them replacing the 3DS almost as soon as the first real Pokemon game would even be released in the west! The only reason the GBA was cut so short was because of Sony bringing PSP to the market. Nintendo rushed the DS Phat out earlier than they wanted to because they needed to have something on market to compete with PSP. That's about the only scenario by which I see Nintendo cutting the 3DS life short - if Microsoft or Samsung or someone comes out with a new dedicated portable gaming device that Nintendo feels they need to respond to immediately. Otherwise, the 3DS is here for the traditional cycle.
 
Never said at any point it'd be a failure ... just that it's silly at this point to think it'll get anywhere near DS lifetime, that includes 130m. Your argument seems to be 'wait and see, something, I don't know what, is gonna come along and make 3DS explode!'

Seems like a lot of wishful thinking, and lets not forget it's going to be infinitely harder for a breakout hit like that to happen again given the chances it can be carried over to mobiles is a big one, and though you may not like mobile gaming it's kinda evident a lot of people do.
There's never going to be a sliver bullet game for 3DS that's going to drive the platform to record sales, but then there never was for DS either. If you take time to look back at DS in the US you'll find it was really a gradual increase and the result of a cumulative effect of moves with hardware and software.

The DS had pitiful sales in the US in 2005, like record lows not seen since the days of Dreamcast. The turnaround started slowly, in August 2005 with the release of Nintendogs and a much needed $20 price drop on the system. That was followed into the holidays with bundles, new system colors and key games (Mario Kart, Mario & Luigi 2, Animal Crossing). The trickle of key games contined into the first half of 2006 (Tetris DS, Metroid Hunters, Brain-Age) building up to the DS Lite, NSMB and BBA launching in May/June. From that point it was strength to strength with the rest of 2006 and 2007 bringing tons more colors, Yoshi's Island 2, PokéDungeon/Ranger, Clubhouse Games, Mario Vs DK 2, DKR, Pokémon DP, Brain-Age 2, Zelda PH, Mario Party, etc. There was really no one sigular moment where the platform turned around from "doomed" to "instant success" though, it was a gradual build upwards and a cumulative effect of software releases, with explosive boosts around the holidays and hardware revisions.

3DS really hasn't been that dissimilar so far. After a slow start (though not nearly as dire as DS was), Nintendo started the push with Zelda OOT3D and the eShop in June, followed with the historic $80 price drop in August, followed with key holiday software (PokéBlast, SM3DL, Mario Kart) and new colors, continued into the first half with more key software (Kid Icarus, Mario Tennis), building to the launch of 3DS XL and NSMB2 in August. They'll follow this for the rest of the year and into 2013 with more colors, bundles, Luigi's Mansion 2, eShop Pokéstuff, Layton 5, Paper Mario 3, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Brain-Age 3D and undoubtedly a lot of other stuff. No silver bullet, but a gradual build amd cumulative effect, maybe not as strong as DS was but definitely enough to keep the platform viable and growing at the very least.
 
I don't think the 3DS will have the 6 year lifespan the DS had before a successor is release. I think it'll be closer to the GBA's 3.5 years rather than 6.
No way, 3DS is going to get a solid 5-6 year cycle, which GBA would've had too if PSP hadn't forced Nintendo into scrambling and launching DS early.

And actually, in hindsight I think Nintendo could've gotten away with riding out GBA longer and just launching DS in early 2006 anyway.
 
No way, 3DS is going to get a solid 5-6 year cycle, which GBA would've had too if PSP hadn't forced Nintendo into scrambling and launching DS early.

And actually, in hindsight I think Nintendo could've gotten away with riding out GBA longer and just launching DS in early 2006 anyway.

Perhaps it will. I just don't see the 3DS having the draw anywhere outside of Japan to continue on for that long without a successor especially as mobile begins to encroach even harder than it already is. Nintendo's gamble on 3D hasn't really seemed to pay off. I never said the 3DS would only last the 3 years the the DS did, only that that it would be closer to GBA than DS. Actually in hindsight the lifespan of the DS was unusually long for a Nintendo system in general. Most of them have gotten a successor in 4-5 years.
 


Vita would look a lot better if N-Gage and Gizmondo were added to the chart.

edit -


The problem with your theory is that biggest thing keeping dedicated handhelds alive right now in the west is Nintendo's software which isn't going anywhere. People will keep buying these things for their kids to get the new Pokemon. Now, the systems won't ever be as big as the DS but you don't need that kind of consumer base for a healthy market.


Yeah, I think in the near future 3ds will be just okay. However, long-term it is a different story.
 

onipex

Member
Do you know what DS did the following August and September? That'd be a better way to gage then. Still, if the Lite propelled the DS to around 600k in the summer months, that's significant, the price cut never did that did it? Didn't it only do 850k or something in November of all months last year.

A redesign should always produce better results than a price drop since some of the existng userbase will upgrade and it will (hopfully) appeal to new users.

I'd say we need to wait until next spring to see how NSMB2 (and XL) affect things. I really somehow doubt both are going to affect sales for more than 6 months but hey I could be wrong.

The XL has less improvements than the Lite had so the impact will be less and there is no brainage in the mix.


Perhaps it will. I just don't see the 3DS having the draw anywhere outside of Japan to continue on for that long without a successor especially as mobile begins to encroach even harder than it already is. Nintendo's gamble on 3D hasn't really seemed to pay off. I never said the 3DS would only last the 3 years the the DS did, only that that it would be closer to GBA than DS. Actually in hindsight the lifespan of the DS was unusually long for a Nintendo system in general. Most of them have gotten a successor in 4-5 years.

3DS has a better software lineup in Japan so I think that is a greater factor than mobile here. Mobile makes it harder to pull in the non gamers ,but Nintendo hasn't released anything for the 3DS that will appeal to that crowd yet.
 
The ps3 as I recall it got a 100 dollar price drop almost immediately.

Really? I don't remember this.

I also don't know of any system that dropped down 30% in price 5 months after launch, but i could be wrong. Just saying.

Edit:Google tells me the PS3 got a 17% price drop after 8 months.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Really? I don't remember this.

I also don't know of any system that dropped down 30% in price 5 months after launch, but i could be wrong. Just saying.
Xbox launches in U.S. at $300 in November 2001. Xbox drops to $200 in April May 2002. So, yeah, not a 30% drop -- it was 33%, and not 5 months -- it was 6.. ;)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
There's never going to be a sliver bullet game for 3DS that's going to drive the platform to record sales, but then there never was for DS either. If you take time to look back at DS in the US you'll find it was really a gradual increase and the result of a cumulative effect of moves with hardware and software.

The DS had pitiful sales in the US in 2005, like record lows not seen since the days of Dreamcast. The turnaround started slowly, in August 2005 with the release of Nintendogs and a much needed $20 price drop on the system. That was followed into the holidays with bundles, new system colors and key games (Mario Kart, Mario & Luigi 2, Animal Crossing). The trickle of key games contined into the first half of 2006 (Tetris DS, Metroid Hunters, Brain-Age) building up to the DS Lite, NSMB and BBA launching in May/June. From that point it was strength to strength with the rest of 2006 and 2007 bringing tons more colors, Yoshi's Island 2, PokéDungeon/Ranger, Clubhouse Games, Mario Vs DK 2, DKR, Pokémon DP, Brain-Age 2, Zelda PH, Mario Party, etc. There was really no one sigular moment where the platform turned around from "doomed" to "instant success" though, it was a gradual build upwards and a cumulative effect of software releases, with explosive boosts around the holidays and hardware revisions.

3DS really hasn't been that dissimilar so far. After a slow start (though not nearly as dire as DS was), Nintendo started the push with Zelda OOT3D and the eShop in June, followed with the historic $80 price drop in August, followed with key holiday software (PokéBlast, SM3DL, Mario Kart) and new colors, continued into the first half with more key software (Kid Icarus, Mario Tennis), building to the launch of 3DS XL and NSMB2 in August. They'll follow this for the rest of the year and into 2013 with more colors, bundles, Luigi's Mansion 2, eShop Pokéstuff, Layton 5, Paper Mario 3, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Brain-Age 3D and undoubtedly a lot of other stuff. No silver bullet, but a gradual build amd cumulative effect, maybe not as strong as DS was but definitely enough to keep the platform viable and growing at the very least.

Yes, DS became a phenomenon not just due to the touchscreen, but due to the lineup increasing more and more. It's how it works in US: brand new hardware adoption is slow and systems reach their peaks later. DS had some of its best months ever in US in 2010, almost 6 years after its debut on the market, just to say.

P.S. DS Lite released in June in US, indeed. 11th June, 2006.
 
Perhaps it will. I just don't see the 3DS having the draw anywhere outside of Japan to continue on for that long without a successor especially as mobile begins to encroach even harder than it already is. Nintendo's gamble on 3D hasn't really seemed to pay off. I never said the 3DS would only last the 3 years the the DS did, only that that it would be closer to GBA than DS. Actually in hindsight the lifespan of the DS was unusually long for a Nintendo system in general. Most of them have gotten a successor in 4-5 years.
Outside GBA, no Nintendo platform has seen a successor launch sooner than 5 years from it's launch. It's just not going to happen, if they can ride out Gamecube for 5 years, 3DS will be no problem.


Really? I don't remember this.

I also don't know of any system that dropped down 30% in price 5 months after launch, but i could be wrong. Just saying.
Well since people seem so fond of bringing up iOS in regards to 3DS, the iPhone dropped $200 about 2 months after it launched. Clearly foreshadowing doom.
 
There's never going to be a sliver bullet game for 3DS that's going to drive the platform to record sales, but then there never was for DS either. If you take time to look back at DS in the US you'll find it was really a gradual increase and the result of a cumulative effect of moves with hardware and software.

The DS had pitiful sales in the US in 2005, like record lows not seen since the days of Dreamcast. The turnaround started slowly, in August 2005 with the release of Nintendogs and a much needed $20 price drop on the system. That was followed into the holidays with bundles, new system colors and key games (Mario Kart, Mario & Luigi 2, Animal Crossing). The trickle of key games contined into the first half of 2006 (Tetris DS, Metroid Hunters, Brain-Age) building up to the DS Lite, NSMB and BBA launching in May/June. From that point it was strength to strength with the rest of 2006 and 2007 bringing tons more colors, Yoshi's Island 2, PokéDungeon/Ranger, Clubhouse Games, Mario Vs DK 2, DKR, Pokémon DP, Brain-Age 2, Zelda PH, Mario Party, etc. There was really no one sigular moment where the platform turned around from "doomed" to "instant success" though, it was a gradual build upwards and a cumulative effect of software releases, with explosive boosts around the holidays and hardware revisions.

3DS really hasn't been that dissimilar so far. After a slow start (though not nearly as dire as DS was), Nintendo started the push with Zelda OOT3D and the eShop in June, followed with the historic $80 price drop in August, followed with key holiday software (PokéBlast, SM3DL, Mario Kart) and new colors, continued into the first half with more key software (Kid Icarus, Mario Tennis), building to the launch of 3DS XL and NSMB2 in August. They'll follow this for the rest of the year and into 2013 with more colors, bundles, Luigi's Mansion 2, eShop Pokéstuff, Layton 5, Paper Mario 3, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Brain-Age 3D and undoubtedly a lot of other stuff. No silver bullet, but a gradual build amd cumulative effect, maybe not as strong as DS was but definitely enough to keep the platform viable and growing at the very least.

I remember DKR debuted at 600k, that was crazy.
 
This is what happens when you price your hardware beyond the core handheld market (children) yet don't adjust your software lineup accordingly.

In 2012 with so many other devices out there, Nintendo need to be far more aggressive.
This is the post you get when you don't think and resort to jumping the gun.
 
This is the post you get when you don't think and resort to jumping the gun.

To be fair the 3DS June itself does not look so hot on that chart. Whoever said a 99 dollar handheld with 20-30 software would be a big hit I agree. Sure the people who want the best graphics would cry, but handheld gaming has never been about that. We see with the DS price drop it is still selling very well.
 
About 9 months after launch, and yeah I wouldn't say $100 is massive given it was $600 to begin with.

I remember, because I was super pissed. When you spend 600 which is a massive amounts, and they reduce the price by a significant amount like that, yeah I was not happy
 

Miles X

Member
I got a question regarding November NPD, is it going to include BF this year? Or is December going to run up to the 6th Jan?

I did the math, unless they change it out BF shouldn't fall in the 4 weeks of November but the 5 weeks of December .. hmm
 

donny2112

Member
To be fair I dont think any system ever again will do 600k in a month unless its the holidays

Last system to do > 600K in a month outside of Fall was DS in March 2010. 360 came close last June, though. It'll happen again, in time.

I got a question regarding November NPD, is it going to include BF this year?

It includes it every year.

Or is December going to run up to the 6th Jan?

December runs until December 29, 2012.

I did the math, unless they change it out BF shouldn't fall in the 4 weeks of November but the 5 weeks of December .. hmm

You messed up somewhere. Black Friday is always the day after Thanksgiving, which is always the 4th Thursday in November. It'll be November 23rd, this year, which is the earliest it can ever be, for reference.

jvm,
January 2013 will have a leap week, right?
 
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