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NPD November 2011 Sales Results [Update 7: Skyrim, CoD Wii, PC Retail Sales Up 57%]

Mooreberg

is sharpening a shovel and digging a ditch
Because it was on sale for $35.
BF3 and Batman had great prices at several places too. I got each of them for $28, four and five weeks after release. Plus Batman had Arkham Asylum with it. This is the first year I can remember where retail adequately competed with Amazon on things that were not just "six per store" door buster sales. Seems like a healthy month after some of the slower months this year had.
 
I'm not sure they are on those deals. Even so, sometimes it's worth taking a small loss (or breaking even) just to stop your competitor selling more. Certain times of year a customer is going to buy a machine no matter what...
That's what im trying to convey and maybe find out also. And it's closely realted to what The Natural so eloquently summed up in this post:
Welcome to the grand flaw in all videogame console sales threads. In the end, it really doesn't matter how many of the systems are sold. If Sony dropped the PS3 to $50, they may easily rule the next two years of videogame sales and "win the war."

So the question remains:

Who did make the most money out those millions of console sales?

There aree a lot of factors to consider but it would be interesting to consider the money generated from the console sales in a vaccum, that its, withouth the subsequent influence those console sales had in the software ones.
 

LOCK

Member
AssCreed keeps on being a consistent, reliable franchise for Ubisoft. AssRev actually outsold AC2's first month. No wonder they want to keep pumping this out every year. Shame the last one is less than stellar.

Hopefully they will take the reviewer critcisms to heart, or AC3 might get hit sales wise.
 

BurntPork

Banned
We knew that at the beginning of the gen when Sony lost their dominance. But the market's taste has not changed. They still want shooters and motion controlled multi-player games. The only thing that has changed is the price of the HD console and Nintendo's software output.



What? 3DS is under performing Nintendo's projections (which are notoriously conservative). If 3DS was doing as well as Nintendo had planned, there would not have been a price cut. The fact that there was a dramatic price cut and yet the 3DS may still fall short of projections is troublesome.



I completely agree with you. Nintendo has absolutely stopped the bleeding with 3DS, and they are fixing the problem. I didn't have a problem with that statement. I simply disagree that the 3DS is doing "amazing" considering the context of the last two Nintendo consoles.



Also this. Nintendo may be able to turn things around, but we really won't know until Nintendo shows off software that can create that kind of momentum. Mario Kart is a start, but it's only one game. For now, saying that 3DS is doing great because it's beating DS's abysmal first year is a poor argument.

There was nothing conservative about 16 million. At all. Especially when that didn't include launch numbers. Nintendo overshot, simple as that.

And I knew that someone would try to argue that 3DS is still doomed. This shit won't ever end, will it?
 

Cipherr

Member
There was nothing conservative about 16 million. At all. Especially when that didn't include launch numbers. Nintendo overshot, simple as that.

And I knew that someone would try to argue that 3DS is still doomed. This shit won't ever end, will it?


Itll be one moved goalpost to the next. Eventually itll be "But it probably wont surpass the PS2 WW LTD at its current pace!
 

Boss Man

Member
5. Just Dance 3 (Wii, 360) Ubisoft
7. Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception (PS3)** Sony - 700k
9. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (WII) ** Nintendo
10. Batman: Arkham City (360, PS3, PC)** Warner Bros. Interactive
:(

Great month though, in all seriousness.
 

Dragon

Banned
Itll be one moved goalpost to the next. Eventually itll be "But it probably wont surpass the PS2 WW LTD at its current pace!

Eventually you'll get over it! :)

It's on 4 platforms and it's November, plus a lot of places had it cheaper than $50 for much of the month...
Yeah, not surprising.

Seriously, it's 9 million. The two platforms that got the majority of sales were 360 and PS3. Adding those other two is disingenuous.

The 360 has a very good chance of outselling the Wii in the US before all is said and done. Even when the 360 successor comes out in 2013 or so, the 360 will still continue to sell pretty well until at least 2014 or 2015 IMO. The 360 will eventually be price cut to $199 then $149 and finally $129 or even $99 during certain promotional periods. Sales at those price points will be pretty big.

By the end of this year the 360 will probably only be behind Wii by about six million. Given th current trends, the 360 cold overtake the Wii as early as the end of 2013.

Depends how MS handles it. The way they handled the original Xbox indicates they may not given it adequate enough support for this to happen.
 
The 360 has a very good chance of outselling the Wii in the US before all is said and done. Even when the 360 successor comes out in 2013 or so, the 360 will still continue to sell pretty well until at least 2014 or 2015 IMO. The 360 will eventually be price cut to $199 then $149 and finally $129 or even $99 during certain promotional periods. Sales at those price points will be pretty big.

By the end of this year the 360 will probably only be behind Wii by about six million. Given the current trends 360 cold overtake the Wii as early as the end of 2013. Wii sales will plummet next year with the release of Wii U while I expect 360 sales to continue to be really strong. I personally don't think the next Xboz comes out until 2013 at the earliest.
 

Huff

Banned
I'm amused by the elephant in the room.

9 million sales and on the whole everyone is "meh, pretty much what we expected". :D

Expected to be higher honestly. Glad to see all three consoles doing well.

What happened to Halo? can't believe people were expecting it to do over a million
 

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
I'm amused by the elephant in the room.

9 million sales and on the whole everyone is "meh, pretty much what we expected". :D

Blops was 8.4 million. And I think MW2 was 6million+. Its just become expected.

I think part of the real shocker is how much EA is flooding the market with BF3. Its at least selling a good chuck of those 10million+ copies they shipped.
 
True, but these November numbers are amazing for a first holiday handheld. All of the other months have been disappointing, but November is showing that the 3DS is probably back on Nintendo's sales track, even if a price cut was needed.

I agree, but only because DS's first holiday is a poor example. The problem with looking at early DS sales is that Nintendo's software strategy was radically different during the first year. Once Nintendo got their ducks in a row, the system took off and sales trends were like night and day. 3DS is doing well, and it's possible Nintendo may be able to get it on the DS/Wii track, but they're not there yet.

There was nothing conservative about 16 million. At all. Especially when that didn't include launch numbers. Nintendo overshot, simple as that.

If you've followed Nintendo earnings threads, Nintendo almost never makes predictions they're not sure they can beat. They're very different than Sony and Microsoft in that way. 16 million is a big number, and it would be great for the first year, but Iwata would not have told their shareholders that 3DS would hit that mark unless he was confident that it could do even better.

And I knew that someone would try to argue that 3DS is still doomed. This shit won't ever end, will it?

It's really said that you can't have a luke warm appraisal of the 3DS without people pulling out the "3DS is doomed" strawman. It's impossible to have a rational sales discussion if people can't be even slightly bearish on a console that regularly misses sales targets.
 

kswiston

Member
It's on 4 platforms and it's November, plus a lot of places had it cheaper than $50 for much of the month...
Yeah, not surprising.

Individual first month sales of MW3-360 and MW3-PS3 are almost certainly higher than first month for any non-COD game ever. A couple of the Halos may have edged out the PS3 version, but that's about it.
 

KageMaru

Member
Big congrats to Sony, MS, ND, Bethesda, and Volition, well deserved success all around. Here's hoping the industry remains at least flat next month (though a YoY increase would be better obviously).
 

guek

Banned
The 360 has a very good chance of outselling the Wii in the US before all is said and done. Even when the 360 successor comes out in 2013 or so, the 360 will still continue to sell pretty well until at least 2014 or 2015 IMO. The 360 will eventually be price cut to $199 then $149 and finally $129 or even $99 during certain promotional periods. Sales at those price points will be pretty big.

By the end of this year the 360 will probably only be behind Wii by about six million. Given the current trends 360 cold overtake the Wii as early as the end of 2013. Wii sales will plummet next year with the release of Wii U while I expect 360 sales to continue to be really strong. I personally don't think the next Xboz comes out until 2013 at the earliest.

Seems like you're assuming quite a lot there. So why will the 360 continue to sell after its successor comes out but not the wii? How are you so sure a successor wont be debuting before 2013? $99 + bundles will go a long way towards sustaining wii sales for some time after the wii u. In any case, there's no clear reason why it wouldn't continue to sell at a languid pace.
 

~Kinggi~

Banned
Assassins Creed, i am pleased it has sold millions.

But i am not pleased it is on the downward path. AC 3 better fix this shit got damn.
 

BurntPork

Banned
I agree, but only because DS's first holiday is a poor example. The problem with looking at early DS sales is that Nintendo's software strategy was radically different. Once Nintendo got their ducks in a row, the system took off and sales trends were like night and day. 3DS is doing well, and it's possible Nintendo may be able to get it on the DS/Wii track, but they're not there yet.



If you've followed Nintendo earnings threads, Nintendo almost never makes predictions they're not sure they can bear. They're very different than Sony and Microsoft in that way. 16 million is a big number, and it would be great for the first year, but Iwata would not have told their shareholders that 3DS would hit that mark unless he was confident that it could do even better.



It's really said that you can't have a luke warm appraisal of the 3DS without people pulling out the "3DS is doomed" strawman. It's impossible to have a rational sales discussion if people can't be even slightly bearish on a console that regularly misses sales targets.

Iwata is human and makes mistakes. He assumed that the 3DS would carry with the DS's momentum, and it didn't. It probably would have missed the target even if it had launched at the current price.

And sorry. I just hate that "it's selling well but that doesn't matter because they cut the price!" argument. I think it's a poor argument, just like you think that it outselling the DS's first year in 8 months is a poor argument. (And I disagree with that, since if you add more context to that, mainly that it did it without a December and, as a result, is on-track to nearly double the DS's first year.) The 3DS's issue has always been games first. Nintendo cut the price because demand was too low and games can't pop out of thin air. That doesn't negate the fact that it's selling well. The games and price cut came too late to save it from falling short of the target. It's that simple.
 
Over the course of a long period of time perhaps, considering this will go on to exceed 20-25 million probably, the wii ratio is probably only relevant in the 'well it's a free million' way.
That is a hilarious way to look at it.

"Well this shoddy port sold more than 99% of yearly releases. Big whoop."
 

Alexios

Cores, shaders and BIOS oh my!
Wait, why are people surprised by COD? It's bound to be another 20 million or whatever seller as usual, what difference does it make if it achieves it a little faster this time, how is continued success that repeats every year an "elephant in the room", or did I miss someone trying to say it's not actually doing well?
 

fernoca

Member
Nice to see some consistency with Assassin's Creed Revelations. :)
Was afraid that it was going to do less than last year's because of "ugh another one?"; but guess it has become some kind of yearly tradition. Hope it continues to do well, though I also hope they finish Desmond's story arc next year and give it a rest for one year...or two; at least as far as main releases goes (won't happen :p).



ass creed moved more units on 1 platform than UC3?

/shakes head.
There are no numbers, but probably.
The numbers posted were of last year's Brotherhood. Revelations went up (overall) 10%; so depends on which version (PS3 or 360) got the boost. All usualy perform better on 360.
 

kswiston

Member
Nice to see some consistency with Assassin's Creed Revelations. :)
Was afraid that it was going to do less than last year's because of "ugh another one?"; but guess it has become some kind of yearly tradition. Hope it continues to do well, though I also hope they finish Desmond's story arc next year and give it a rest for one year...or two; at least as far as main releases goes (won't happen :p).

I can see a AC3 finally coming out next year, then the franchise taking a year off to retool for next gen.
 
If you've followed Nintendo earnings threads, Nintendo almost never makes predictions they're not sure they can beat. They're very different than Sony and Microsoft in that way. 16 million is a big number, and it would be great for the first year, but Iwata would not have told their shareholders that 3DS would hit that mark unless he was confident that it could do even better.
Lets do a little math:
From Oct-Mar they need to ship 12.93 3DS to hit their target.

NPD Oct+Nov=1,045,000
MC Oct3-Dec4=919,873

Subtract those two from the target and we get
10,965,127

(Dec-Mar US)+(Dec-Mar JP)+(Oct-Mar Rest of world)=10.96 million
Rest of this will just be using estimates to see what they need to do.

Right now I would peg them for 2.5-3.0 million in the US and will use 3 million as an optimistic estimate. Adding that into the formula we get.

(Dec-Mar JP)+(Oct-Mar Rest of world)=7.96 million

I don't have a clue about how to properly estimate the remaining variables so if anyone could give a decent estimate for Japan maybe we could figure out as a group how realistic their target is.

I know shipped doesn't equal sold but when it comes to 2 quarters of hardware they end up getting close enough. PS3 last year and 360 in 06 are two examples of consoles having their sales catch up to the shipments in the quarter following the holiday.
 

fernoca

Member
Lets do a little math:
From Oct-Mar they need to ship 12.93 3DS to hit their target.

NPD Oct+Nov=1,045,000
MC Oct3-Dec4=919,873

Subtract those two from the target and we get
10,965,127

(Dec-Mar US)+(Dec-Mar JP)+(Oct-Mar Rest of world)=10.96 million
Rest of this will just be using estimates to see what they need to do.

Right now I would peg them for 2.5-3.0 million in the US and will use 3 million as an optimistic estimate. Adding that into the formula we get.

(Dec-Mar JP)+(Oct-Mar Rest of world)=7.96 million

I don't have a clue about how to properly estimate the remaining variables so if anyone could give a decent estimate for Japan maybe we could figure out as a group how realistic their target is.

I know shipped doesn't equal sold but when it comes to 2 quarters of hardware they end up getting close enough. PS3 last year and 360 in 06 are two examples of consoles having their sales catch up to the shipments in the quarter following the holiday.
Could be wrong, but wasn't the 16 million number for MarchApril 1, 2011 until March 31, 2012?
Why would they need to sell 12.93 million between October and March 2012, when by September they were at 6.6. That means they'll need 9.4 million between October and March.

As of September 30, they were at 6.6 million.
Since then, they've hadded 2 million more (just in Japan and the US) and whatever they've sold in the rest of the world.

So, let's put it at 9 million (overall) as of this week. That means they have to sell the remaining 7 million in 4 months.


Found answer, post 981. ;)
 
Could be wrong, but wasn't the 16 million number for March 2011 until March 2012?
Why would they need to sell 12.93 million between October and March 2012, when by September they were at 6.6. That means they'll need 9.4 million between October and March.

As of September 30, they were at 6.6 million.
Since then, they've hadded 2 million more (just in Japan and the US) and whatever they've sold in the rest of the world.

So, let's put it at 9 million (overall) as of this week. That means they have to sell the remaining 7 million in 4 months.

It's for the fiscal year.
 
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