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[Dire]

Amazingly bad month. I thought I was being almost cynically bearish on the market yet both consoles under performed my predictions substantially.

I'd love to see what Sony is discussing internally. I think it's a given we'll see an E3 price drop, but will that meaningfully change things around? I think this gen is really suffering from a lack of innovation more than any other. It has no real distinguishing feature so far - just last gen games with incrementally improved graphics and that doesn't seem to be working. A signal of desperation could be if we see E3 "major" announcements of consoles simply trying to copy PC success with MOBA style games or something like a 'AAA' Minecraft. Both I think being extremely likely to fail.

September is going to be a hugely important month for these consoles. That's when the holiday sales numbers start picking up. If they can't win more mindshare by that time, this is likely going to be one very sad generation.

 

[DangerMouse]

Just watch the next month. Is going to be fun.

So Watch Dogs and MLB The Show are going to sell more or less 0 PS4s? When they're bigger releases than the PS4 had at retail this month and The Show is a full exclusive?

 

[Nirolak]

The month that is the most similar to April 2014 is April 2007. In 2014 the top 7 were 360 games, last gen games. In April 2007, 4 last gen hardware games were in the top 10, but towards the bottom of the list.

What's happening now is new and not typical. Last gen consoles in 2007 were mostly dead, in 2014 last gen games account for most of the sales.

The 360 was a year old in January 2007.

 

[allan-bh]

Ps4 should be really high because of mlb the show

This game is system seller?

 

[MormaPope]

So Watch Dogs and MLB The Show are going to sell more or less 0 PS4s? When they're bigger releases than the PS4 had at retail this month?

Wouldn't MLB The Show fans buy a PS4 earlier than May? Same goes for people that want the current gen version of Watchdogs.

The 360 was a year old in January 2007.

If I could go back to NPD threads in 2006 I would, but they aren't archived. I felt doing a 2007 comparison made more sense anyway with all the next consoles on the market.

 

[N.Domixis]

This game is system seller?

Who knows, it will probably give it at most a 20k bump.

 

[Darknight]

Wii U had a record launch too.

Just saying.

PS4/XB1 3rd party support wont drop dead anytime soon. Apples to oranges. Not gonna bother with any more detail as this has been talked about countless times.

 

[border]

Amazingly bad month. I thought I was being almost cynically bearish on the market yet both consoles under performed my predictions substantially.

How did the PS4 "under-perform" in April?

 

[Vylsith]

I wish we had some indication of what the digital numbers are for these two.

Infamous hit 1 million sales within the first 9 days. No idea what the numbers are for Titanfall. I'm sure it's sold more for Xbox One overall than Infamous, but that's not even remotely surprising. It sold pretty well for an Infamous title. Much better than Infamous 2 sold at launch. Good for them. It was a good game, despite being short. It deserved the sales.

 

[Dead Prince]

How did the PS4 "under-perform" in April?

it didn't meet his predictions that's why.

 

[MiamiWesker]

Going through NPD threads of this year:


March:


April:


The month that is the most similar to April 2014 is April 2007. In 2014 the top 7 were 360 games, last gen games. In April 2007, 4 last gen hardware games were in the top 10, but towards the bottom of the list.

What's happening now is new and not typical. Last gen consoles in 2007 were mostly dead, in 2014 last gen games account for most of the sales.

Woah what happened in March 2007 to have such an insane level boost of all games. Zelda went from 100 to 400k. Lost Planet from 111k to 570k?!?!?

 

[leatherhat]

Wouldn't MLB The Show fans buy a PS4 earlier than May? Same goes for people that want the current gen version of Watchdogs.

Why would people who want a console for a specific game buy the console before the game came out? To look at it?

 

[MilesTeg]

Historically speaking both X1 and PS4 have sold more than past gens in a short time .
Now the question is how long before stream are cross and they need a price cut to keep sales going at a healthy rate .
Something MS has already done .

The difference being much more stock at launch holiday season for both consoles of course. Demand is a very real issue, regardless of launch sales.

 

[boredandlazy]

Edit: Nevermind...

 

[ArchedThunder]

So I guess no one is gonna leak the PS4 numbers then?

 

[ZSaberLink]

But Xbox One is 2nd best seller. 3DS can't be above 115k.

Who said XB1 was the 2nd best seller? MSFT? They never include the 3DS in their PR. Even when the 3DS was outselling the 360 in all of 2013 MS always said they had the best selling console. Otherwise you're saying the Wii sold quite a bit more this month as opposed to last month. That just seems odd to me.

If the 3DS < 115K (which I still don't think is true), then the Wii sold 35K on a month with fewer weeks? So it went from selling ~5K a week to ~9K a week? That's a pretty significant change...

 

[border]

it didn't meet his predictions that's why.

There are no numbers for PS4, are there?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Oh, cs post on Nintendo HW was actually only an upper bound. So 3DS+Wii could really be anything.

Who said XB1 was the 2nd best

Liam Callaghan.
See above, upper bound.

 

[Log4Girlz]

4DS needs to come out in 2015. It needs to be cheap. It needs to be sleek and slim. It needs to be designed as an always-connected device. It needs to have a totally revamped store with tons of F2P and lifestyle content.

People who say that Nintendo can hang on for 2 years are delusional. The entire business is at risk in the west.

Yes. .. but we'll they. I have no confidence.

 

[Miles X]

Who said XB1 was the 2nd best seller? MSFT? They never include the 3DS in their PR. Even when the 3DS was outselling the 360 in all of 2013 MS always said they had the best selling console. Otherwise you're saying the Wii sold quite a bit more this month as opposed to last month. That just seems odd to me.

We don't know what 3DS/WiiU/Wii is tho, just that it's under 199k.

3DS was 113k last year, why would it be up YOY when it's been down drastically all this year so far?

 

[BananaSprinkles]

But are there any grounds to the assumption? I'm not saying the percentage allocation is a bad assumption, but having actual facts or numbers to back it is ideal.

They sold 3 million by the end of 2013 and 1.8~ million of those were in the US according to NPD threads.

1.8 / 3 = 60%

I have no idea if that ratio continued in to the new year.

 

[MormaPope]

Woah what happened in March 2007 to have such an insane level boost of all games. Zelda went from 100 to 400k. Lost Planet from 111k to 570k?!?!?

I think those are total sales, but I could be wrong.

Why would people who want a console for a specific game buy the console before the game came out? To look at it?

Are MLB The Show fans that peculiar when it comes to games? They wouldn't want anything else on the PS4? If they're that peculiar they would probably stick with the PS3 version to save $400.

 

[SlipperySlope]

You eventually have to be a bit surprised retailers would even order additional stock at all, new model or otherwise.

That's what I was wondering. Why order the new model? It's not worth the shelf space at this point, a device that sells maybe 1 unit a month at any given store.

This transition would be a good exiting strategy for retail.

 

[ZSaberLink]

We don't know what 3DS/WiiU/Wii is tho, just that it's under 199k.

3DS was 113k last year, why would it be up YOY when it's been down drastically all this year so far?

Weren't folks saying the Wii U was 49K thanks to Harker's cryptic fractions?

The 3DS was really that low last April even with Fire Emblem & Luigi's Mansion the previous 2 months? Also, keep in mind the 3DS (thanks to the 2DS) has a much lower price point, and has Pokemon out. There also was the Disney Magical World bundle, although I'm not sure how much that did.

 

[Vylsith]

Going through NPD threads of this year:

February:

Now lets compare that to NPD charting for early 2007, when all next gen consoles were out:


Janurary:


February:


March:


April:


The month that is the most similar to April 2014 is April 2007. In 2014 the top 7 were 360 games, last gen games. In April 2007, 4 last gen hardware games were in the top 10, but towards the bottom of the list.

What's happening now is new and not typical. Last gen consoles in 2007 were mostly dead, in 2014 last gen games account for most of the sales.

Except that the 360 was the console to beat last generation for core gamers in the US, and it already had a year head start. There's no valid comparison between this generation and last generation. Your argument is a fallacy of false analogy.

 

[Cuyejo]

Amazingly bad month. I thought I was being almost cynically bearish on the market yet both consoles under performed my predictions substantially.

I'd love to see what Sony is discussing internally. I think it's a given we'll see an E3 price drop, but will that meaningfully change things around? I think this gen is really suffering from a lack of innovation more than any other. It has no real distinguishing feature so far - just last gen games with incrementally improved graphics and that doesn't seem to be working. A signal of desperation could be if we see E3 "major" announcements of consoles simply trying to copy PC success with MOBA style games or something like a 'AAA' Minecraft. Both I think being extremely likely to fail.

September is going to be a hugely important month for these consoles. That's when the holiday sales numbers start picking up. If they can't win more mindshare by that time, this is likely going to be one very sad generation.

Oh my god no!, if console gaming is going to die as we know it

Spoiler

(it won't lol)

at least let it die with dignity.

 

[LOCK]

So if the 3DS's April estimate of last year being 113k, and this year being Wii+WiiU(48k)+3DS<PS4(199k), then potentially the 3DS could be up YOY. It really depends on the upper limit of the < and the Wii decline.

If the Wii U HW + SW is up YOY and the 3DS is up or flat in HW + SW YOY, why didn't Nintendo give a PR statement? Odd.

 

[DangerMouse]

Wouldn't MLB The Show fans buy a PS4 earlier than May? Same goes for people that want the current gen version of Watchdogs.

With the delay for Watchdogs I'm not so sure everyone will have, people were even given the chance to cancel their preorders before launch. But with those kept their orders and combined with cross-gen I'm not saying it'll necessarily have a huge effect either. MLB I don't know.

The main point was I thought he was going too far. While we'll see how much of an effect they have (maybe it will only be mediocre, maybe more), it seems weird they'd have absolutely 0 effect which would match the case with this month where they didn't even have 2 retail titles at the level of Watchdogs and MLB.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The difference being much more stock at launch holiday season for both consoles of course. Demand is a very real issue, regardless of launch sales.

Which is why they are going threw the early adopters much faster .
Saying regardless of launch sales makes no sense because there are only going to be a certain amount of people that going to buy the consoles at that price .
The faster you get to them the faster sales going drop even with better software .

 

[ZSaberLink]

So if the 3DS's April estimate of last year being 113k, and this year being Wii+WiiU(48k)+3DS<PS4(199k), then potentially the 3DS could be up YOY. It really depends on the upper limit of the < and the Wii decline.

If the Wii U HW + SW is up YOY and the 3DS is up or flat in HW + SW YOY, why didn't Nintendo give a PR statement? Odd.

Not entirely sure. Nintendo could have spun it with percentages but perhaps they didn't care to do so? Next month I feel they'll have more to say thanks to the ramp-up to MK8.

 

[Suzushiiro]

Are MLB The Show fans that peculiar when it comes to games? They wouldn't want anything else on the PS4? If they're that peculiar they would probably stick with the PS3 version to save $400.

Not necessarily, but I'd imagine it's pretty common for someone to decide "I'll buy the new console when [game] comes out," even if they may be interested in a game that comes out before that one.

I was interested in a couple of the games that came out before it, but I still didn't buy a PS3 until MGS4 came out.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Couldn't fit them all so I took out the original Xbox.

 

[leatherhat]

I think those are total sales, but I could be wrong.



Are MLB The Show fans that peculiar when it comes to games? They wouldn't want anything else on the PS4? If they're that peculiar they would probably stick with the PS3 version to save $400.

Yes they are, actually. There are quite a few people I know who own a ps3 for the show and little else. Undoubtedly some will upgrade. Watch dogs is the real game to look at though. A lot of people are going to be getting new consoles for that game, its been hyped for a long time and advertised as a next gen only (specifically ps4) game.

 

[allan-bh]

So if the 3DS's April estimate of last year being 113k, and this year being Wii+WiiU(48k)+3DS<PS4(199k), then potentially the 3DS could be up YOY. It really depends on the upper limit of the < and the Wii decline.

I don't see how 3DS could be up YoY. That's not the current trend.

 

[iori9999]

That's a fucking disturbing statement combined with your avatar. Just go to Junes, Nana-chan.

EVERYDAY IS GREAT AT YOUR JUNES!

 

[ReBurn]

EVERYDAY IS GREAT AT YOUR JUNES!

You're the best in your class.

 

[Nirolak]

Honestly I don't really get the pessimism at this point on next-gen.

Yeah, I can get why people would be sweating out how things will be selling in July.

However, the software releasing this Fall has quite possibly the largest raw selling potential in the history of Xbox/PlayStation, at least in terms of big hitters.

I get that a lot of these games don't really appeal to GAF, but the sheer number of titles releasing with 5-20+ million sales potential is kind of astonishing.

Are a lot of these cross-gen? Definitely, but given how things have been skewing so far, along with the fact that some of them are next-gen only, I don't really see a huge issue.

To note, this is true even if we assume both first parties sell zero copies of any games this Fall.

 

[Suzushiiro]

Which is why they are going threw the early adopters much faster .
Saying regardless of launch sales makes no sense because there are only going to be a certain amount of people that going to buy the consoles at that price .
The faster you get to them the faster sales going drop even with better software .

Yeah, pretty much. You have the people who will buy the new console as soon as they can and the people who are going to wait until a price drop, there are more good games for it, or a specific game they're interested in releases for it. The people in the first group got theirs earlier than usual due to increased supply. The people in the second group are still waiting just like they always have. You can't really figure out if the combined size of the two groups has grown or shrunk until the point where the second group starts buying.

 

[MormaPope]

Except that the 360 was the console to beat last generation for core gamers in the US, and it already had a year head start. There's no valid comparison between this generation and last generation. Your argument is a fallacy of false analogy.

Is this an absolute or are you just directing that at my comparison? If the normal trend is last gen software beating all of next gen software sales during the first year, these next gen consoles haven't bucked that trend. If next gen software sales are supposed to be greater than last gen software sales trend wise, next gen consoles are failing in that regard.

Either history is repeating itself, which isn't necessarily a good thing, or this situation is unique for all the wrong reasons.

 

[Hades Hotgun]

I think the best way for Sony to try and keep up with the PS2's first year pace would be to offer PS2's first year price.

$299

 

[Instro]

It seems Nintendo has more reason to be worried about their handheld business than people would have had you believe. Everyone always took for granted that it would always carry them financially but if their next handheld is the equivalent (sales wise) the the n64 or GameCube of their handheld line they are fucked hard.

The WiiU situation has masked the fact that the 3DS is a mess as well, and always has been. The price drop and software helped back when things were really dire, but its pretty clear that the market for dedicated handhelds has shrunk substantially. Not that really surprises anyone. Of course part of the 3DS's performance can be attributed to that bad start preventing it from really catching on, and 3D not being the hit Nintendo thought it would be. It will be interesting to see where they go next. I'm assuming branching out to new devices and "entertainment" along with building a cohesive family of devices is their plan to deal with it. At least it sounds that way. If they have a group of similarly architectured devices with a uniform OS, that play mostly the same software, and all combine for 50m+ in hardware sales then that would be pretty sustainable on the gaming side, combined with whatever they get from the QOL stuff and beyond.

Or 3rd party I guess lol.

 

[Aquamarine]

So I guess no one is gonna leak the PS4 numbers then?

Never say never

 

[Anth0ny]

Depressing numbers. I still think it's too early to predict doom on Xbone and ps4, though. They still have a TON of huge games coming.

 

[Busaiku]

I think the best way for Sony to try and keep up with the PS2's first year pace would be to offer PS2's first year price.

$299

$299 in 2001 is $400 now!

 

[Suzushiiro]

Couldn't fit them all so I took out the original Xbox.

Fuck, too many similar shades to really tell what's what, but I'm assuming that, top to bottom in order of endpoints, those are PS4, XBone, Wii, PS2, GC, 360, PS3, Wii U?

 

[allan-bh]

So I guess no one is gonna leak the PS4 numbers then?

It's ~199k

We need PS3 and 3DS.

 

[Lonely1]

Do we have numbers for the rest of the hardware?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Never say never

Wait, so are the calculations folks have done incorrect? People put the PS4 at 199K.

 

[iori9999]

You're the best in your class.

Damn straight!

 

[astrogamer]

I'm kind of interested in the sales of Conception 2 and what's the ratio of 3DS to VIta. It's probably in favor of the Vita though