To be fair, Xb1 had one of its biggest franchise careying it this month (Gears) and ps4 only had Until Dawn as a significant release. Would be interesting what the holiday brings, but I'm betting xb1 will lead because of Halo and Tomb Raider whilst Uncharted has been reneged to next year.
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NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
To be fair, Xb1 had one of its biggest franchise careying it this month (Gears) and ps4 only had Until Dawn as a significant release. Would be interesting what the holiday brings, but I'm betting xb1 will lead because of Halo and Tomb Raider whilst Uncharted has been reneged to next year.
EventHorizon
Member
It was announced to the public in 2013. I likely was in development before that.
As for the costs, it is not just the cost of making the game you have to worry about. It is the opportunity costs that take into account the fact that they could have made much more money if they had taken that same engine and development money, and made a less niche game. What if instead of Until Dawn, we were instead talking about a Horizon Zero Dawn game being released a year earlier. I guarantee that the sales numbers would have been much much better for the software...and the hardware.
It's 90k? Where did you find that?
How so? I thought this was 5 day sale period? I'll wait for this month to see if UD did bad.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I understand the opportunity costs but don't forget that this also started out as a move game.
Plus we just talking about if the game going to make profit and opportunity costs would matter more if it gets a sequel or not .
At least at this point in time .
freefornow
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178337321&postcount=881
And its less than, so between 85-90k
Melchiah
Member
Glad to see Until Dawn on top 10. It bodes well for the future of horror games.
Unfortunately, I'm not one of the buyers, as there's been too many games released recently, which have built a backlog for me, and I just had to buy a new phone as well. I'll definitely be buying it after SOMA.
Goddam!
I'm not that familiar with them, but aren't they basically fluffy DLCs?
Unfortunately, I'm not one of the buyers, as there's been too many games released recently, which have built a backlog for me, and I just had to buy a new phone as well. I'll definitely be buying it after SOMA.
Goddam!
I'm not that familiar with them, but aren't they basically fluffy DLCs?
eerik9000
Member
Yeah, SCEA has to take the blame. They showed no belief in the game. Hopefully European sales are good enough to greenlight Supermassive's next project.
small44
Member
Wii was selling even faster then PS2 in first years
CosmicQueso
Member
Oh nevermind.
Maybe lifetime sales jumped because of that mobile game beside MCC?
But Gears is just a remaster. It wasn't a new ip, just a 10 year old ip polished.
eerik9000
Member
So Wii is the only console that should be considered successful? Once a pricedrop and big exclusives kick in for PS4 in the next 12 months... it will (continue to) dominate.
EventHorizon
Member
I don't have enough info to say if it would make a profit or not, but my guess would be that it won't. I don't think the game will have legs. It started out with poor sales and things only get tougher from here. I seriously doubt that you'll see it on the NPD top 10 ever again. The again, it will probably do better in Europe than it did in the U.S.
This time next month no one will be talking about Until Dawn and its total sale will not have improved that much. You have to admit that the game is in a hole right now and it is hard to see a way for it to dig itself out. The only thing I can think of is that Sony will start bundling the game, which actually seems pretty likely, but I don't think you can really count it if they are giving the game away.
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
Wow gotta say this preseason stuff is getting pretty old... you don't play good in 'preseason' you don't make it to the finals..
JetSetRadio
Banned
We're never going to get surprising numbers this gen right?
Hm...that PS classics. FF VII will be huge one.
4 days of tracking, no marketing and bundles, niche genre = Not good sales
slavesnyder
Member
So you expect the uncharted collection to have no impact either?
Katana_Strikes
Member
This month should have been an easy victory for MS yet it was still outsold. So that barely outsold it might as well have been a million miles away for what it was worth here. If during a quieter time of year with plenty of offers and a key release isn't enough then it isn't a good outlook. MS have been ready to play since titanfall yet still can't out do a more expensive system that hasn't had as many offers/promotions going towards it.
If Spartan strike was pushing those kinda numbers, then MS needs to release one of those every month.
Depending on the legs Until Dawn has, ~1.5m is possible.
Heavy Rain launched in Feb 2010 with ~5 days of sales, hitting 220k on NPD.
(http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_February_2010)
It eventually hit 3 million global lifetime sales in Aug 2013 (https://twitter.com/GdeFondaumiere/status/369440406808719360)
Basically for Heavy Rain, the lifetime global sales were 15x month 1 NPD retail sales.
15x of 90k gets you to 1.35m
Assuming the retail-digital sales ratio of games has changed in the 2-5 years since, I think tipping over 1.5m is possible.
I do think the space for this sort of games can be expanded. David Cage games and Until Dawn are still missing a bit in execution, so getting something that really hits the sweet spot can raise the sales bar. However, they will need to figure out how to defend against replayability issues, as single-player-only games have very limited shelf lives and the proliferation of Let's Play is making life even harder for such games.
Huh? Uncharted is coming this year in the form of a collection. That's one of Sony's biggest franchises. If it helped MS this month, as you imply, it should also apply to Sony.
Exactly, low sales was expected because it's a small launch. And for be precise was 5 days of tracking.
I don't expect Tomb Raider to move a lot of systems like Halo, especially since it comes out the same day as Fallout 4 and is sandwiched between Black Ops 3 and Battlefront.
Anything is possible though, knowing MS I imagine there will be a TR bundle that includes TR Remastered and maybe another free game.
Um, are you trying to imply that Uncharted Collection will be on the same level as Halo 5?
For some odd reason GAF would only load half of every page, so I didn't really get to post my thoughts about UD.
Last I read was that people were disappointed with it selling <90k? IMO, it doesn't seem that bad (though it's not exactly stellar either). It only seemed to have tracked for 4/5 days. Word of mouth that game was good didn't reach until a bit later than that. I was the only guy tweeting about it in my timeline during the week the game was released (and I didn't buy it until Friday), but people started talking about it only a week later.
Plus, it seems that SCEA didn't give this game enough love. No TV ads, and a very pitiful E3 presence.
It was never gonna set the charts on fire the same way Heavy Rain did, but it's going to have some legs. Thing is, while many could argue that you can watch the YouTubers play this game, you will probably be frustrated with some of their choices, much so if it leads to the death of a character you like. I can imagine some people thinking they can do better by just getting the game and playing it for themselves.
So yeah, 90k seems like a good start. It will hopefully have some legs, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic about it.
Last I read was that people were disappointed with it selling <90k? IMO, it doesn't seem that bad (though it's not exactly stellar either). It only seemed to have tracked for 4/5 days. Word of mouth that game was good didn't reach until a bit later than that. I was the only guy tweeting about it in my timeline during the week the game was released (and I didn't buy it until Friday), but people started talking about it only a week later.
Plus, it seems that SCEA didn't give this game enough love. No TV ads, and a very pitiful E3 presence.
It was never gonna set the charts on fire the same way Heavy Rain did, but it's going to have some legs. Thing is, while many could argue that you can watch the YouTubers play this game, you will probably be frustrated with some of their choices, much so if it leads to the death of a character you like. I can imagine some people thinking they can do better by just getting the game and playing it for themselves.
So yeah, 90k seems like a good start. It will hopefully have some legs, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic about it.
IMO, it's a great sale for UD for such a short period of time. It's a success. And August was a really a slow month in both software and hardware.
90k on first week is a success? How?
Agree on Gears but I think Until Dawn did okay for what it is. I don't think anyone predicted massive sales. IIRC its sales figures would place it in the top 5 selling new IPs this year (I realize that's like like saying you are one of the top 5 tallest midgets). Hopefully, it will see a sales bump this week due to the BB sale.
Grimgrillz
Banned
I don't understand why people claim Until Dawn was a dud sales wise?
90K considering it was only tracked for 7 days. When you add into the mix Zero marketing to the point where most gamers had no idea it was coming out. The stock shortages (which if UK mirrors US) were widespread.
Rare Replay had a full month of tracking (roughly) and sold 19K more? Yes this is a NA sales thread but I'm pretty sure UD is close to a million units sold (Not Shipped) at this point in time. Yes that's just a guess but the EU supported it in a major way.
If my estimate is right then 1 mil in a month with zero marketing would be pretty crazy.
90K considering it was only tracked for 7 days. When you add into the mix Zero marketing to the point where most gamers had no idea it was coming out. The stock shortages (which if UK mirrors US) were widespread.
Rare Replay had a full month of tracking (roughly) and sold 19K more? Yes this is a NA sales thread but I'm pretty sure UD is close to a million units sold (Not Shipped) at this point in time. Yes that's just a guess but the EU supported it in a major way.
If my estimate is right then 1 mil in a month with zero marketing would be pretty crazy.
Rare Replay doesn't had good sales either.
And don't be offended but believe that Until Dawn is close to 1 million is very crazy talk.
Really? Wow, if true, it's definetely a success, but would like to see some receipts on that though.
EventHorizon
Member
It looks like these types of games cost $40 million to make in the PS3 era. That includes development, marketing and distribution. I assume doing the same thing for a PS4 game would cost more and the fact that this game switched from a PS3 game to a PS4 game adds even more to that. So I too don't think it looks good for the game.
I agree that this could happen to gaming, but that doesn't justify any old game getting made. The thing about console gaming is that you have to buy the specific platform to even have the ability to buy the games. This isn't something like TV. All programs can run on any TV. The consequence of this is the trap that Microsoft fell into when they tried to make the XB1 more inclusive.
There is a minimum level of content that can be supported by the consoles. Once you go below that level, the people who would buy it won't pay the $300-$400 dollars for the console to play it. In Microsoft's case, their appeal to the more general audience fell flat because the people it would appeal to could get the same or similar features on a $100 or less multimedia box.
For console games, if you make the games too casual then you start competing against web based games, or now the Apple TV and Nvidia shield. For example, a person who is hooked on Candy Crush isn't going to see any benefit in spending the money to buy a console to expand their gaming possibility. Candy Crush can't be made any better with better hardware. There is a real hard lower limit to how broad you can expand the console's appeal.
In my opinion these types of games are flirting with crossing that line. I think they are like the Wii and Kinect in that the initial novelty of these games caused the curious to buy them. Once that novelty wears off they are going to have to stand on their own two feet. I see the lackluster sales of Until Dawn and The Order as an indication that they won't be able to do that. The people who will plop down hundreds of dollars to buy a console want more agency in their games.
So while I agree that consoles need to broaden their audience, they also have to do it within the constraints of the types of games that will appeal to people who see value in buying a console in the first place. Cinematic games aren't the only other alternative type of game out there. For example, I'd like to see more experimentation in the following types of games on the consoles.
- Moba/RTS: Battle for Middle Earth
- Arcade flight: Crimson Skies
- Arcade sports: Deathrow
- Arcade racing: Burnout Revenge
- MMOs: Guild Wars 2, Everquest Next
- Mechs: Mech Assault
On top of that do any of those as a VR game. A real killer game I want to see, excuse the pun, is a VR coop horror game.
So I agree that consoles need to experiment. I just want them to experiment in a different direction.
outunderthestars
Banned
Just out of morbid curiosity: did we get a number for Vita hardware?
We don't get Vita HW anymore. It's dead in America.
I said what are the reasons. 4 or 5 days of tracking is not the whole week.
For example, RR is IMO sold bad. It cost 30$ and it had a whole month for sales. And barely over 100k.
Yes, they canceled PS3 version and moved to PS4.
I know there is no way to know this but I have a feeling that the digital
hysical ratio for RR is much higher than for Until Dawn, making it's sales even greater than UD'sRR is a perfect "game" to have digitally. I'm hesitant myself on pulling the trigger on getting UD digitally (still need to use my PLAY2015 coupon) as I'm concerned that it's a 'one and done' type game.
EDIT: as in terms of "success" even if UD sold more, I imagine that RR turns out more profitable in the long run than UD and that is what MS and Sony really cares about.
This argument "it's just X days, let's wait next month" is a very old excuse in NPD threads and usually leads to disappointment.
Agreed, RR did not sell particularly well. If anything it proves that there isn't much of a market for such games outside of the hardcore retro fans crowd. By all accounts it is an excellent remaster.
To be fair, "next month" for Until Dawn is a time when the deck is stacked against it with MGSV and Destiny. And while I don't think it will do well, Mad Max also.
That's not even mentioning those of us with multiple consoles and having Forza and Super Mario Maker coming out.
Until Dawn probably won't see a "good" month unless they cut the price (like 50% cut) in time for the two weeks leading up to Halloween.
Just my opinion.
I would be very surprised if UD charts again this year.