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[Zen]

The winner chooses the avatar the other user must use for 2 weeks, or however long you want.

The #10 spot next month will probably need 150-175k. That means KZ2 will need to only sell ~50% of what it did in the first two days for the entire month of March.

EDIT: Oh crap KZ2 ad just came on tv. Probably an omen. :lol

There were people saying things like "PS3 fans should be prepared for Killzone 2 not even charting in the top 10. Just saying." Aside from Resident Evil 5 I can't think of any big releases for the month that would threaten KZ2 having its second month in the top 10.

I accept your bet. >:O

 

[John Harker]

Unlike the PS3, Wii games have legs.

Though, unlike OTHER third-party Wii games, HotD actually had advertisements. Still, I think MadWorld will wind up being a better test.

Yea, you're the only one who got my point.
Sega advertised the shit out of Overkill. And there was a ton of crosspromotion for MadWorld and Conduit. The three titles are very linked. If one doesn't do well, it negatively effects the others.

Still, it may sell fine longterm, but considering the upfront costs, yes I would say 135k is dissapointing. This was a title meant to have a big launch.

 

[timetokill]

There were people saying things like "PS3 fans should be prepared for Killzone 2 not even charting in the top 10. Just saying." Aside from Resident Evil 5 I can't think of any big releases for the month that would threaten KZ2 having its second month in the top 10.

I accept your bet. >:O

Pokemon.

 

[AniHawk]

Posted ? Nintendo's response :



Source

No mention of Sega among the thrid parties placed in the top 30 has me worried a bit for HOTD Overkill. I personally expected it to be placed at least in the top 20...

Okay. That would be worrying. I'm guessing 50kish. Just guessing.

 

[watership]

Weak. Seriously weak. No hype for Killzone 2? Really? What about the 2005 E3 CG trailer that was the major talking point of the entire conference? Even people who are not into serious gaming have heard of Killzone2 over the past few years. There was hype. More hype than FABLE 2 recieved, and that game made 300,000 in one day.

 

[suffah]

There were people saying things like "PS3 fans should be prepared for Killzone 2 not even charting in the top 10. Just saying." Aside from Resident Evil 5 I can't think of any big releases for the month that would threaten KZ2 having its second month in the top 10.

I accept your bet. >:O

Ok.

Also, when is Sony going to drop the PS2 down to $99?

 

[Zen]

The winner chooses the avatar the other user must use for 2 weeks, or however long you want.

The #10 spot next month will probably need 150-175k. That means KZ2 will need to only sell ~50% of what it did in the first two days for the entire month of March.

EDIT: Oh crap KZ2 ad just came on tv. Probably an omen. :lol

Pokemon.

We'll see, won't we?

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Posted ? Nintendo's response :



Source

No mention of Sega among the thrid parties placed in the top 30 has me worried a bit for HOTD Overkill. I personally expected it to be placed at least in the top 20...

They probably didn't mention it because it's rated M.

 

[timetokill]

We'll see, won't we?

Also, GTA: Chinatown Wars is a pretty huge unknown at this point. Massive franchise on a massive platform, but the two haven't mixed before.

 

[carnon]

November 2008
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (PS3) - Activision - 444 000
Release date:November 6, 2007
Number of day counted: 23

Well...

 

[Zen]

Thanks for pointing out the typo.

China Town Wars will be in the top ten, I'm pretty sure of that.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

There were people saying things like "PS3 fans should be prepared for Killzone 2 not even charting in the top 10. Just saying." Aside from Resident Evil 5 I can't think of any big releases for the month that would threaten KZ2 having its second month in the top 10.

I accept your bet. >:O

I can think of a couple:

Wii Play

Wii Fit

Mario Kart

CoD: WaW 360

I'd say those three are guaranteed to reappear.

Resident Evil 5 360

Pokémon Diamond

Guaranteed new releases.

Resident Evil 5 PS3

Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars

I'd say those two have a damn good chance as well.

Judging by this list, i'd say you have a whopping 2 spaces to play with, and I know i'm forgetting some releases this month. Good luck.

 

[SuperBonk]

There were people saying things like "PS3 fans should be prepared for Killzone 2 not even charting in the top 10. Just saying." Aside from Resident Evil 5 I can't think of any big releases for the month that would threaten KZ2 having its second month in the top 10.

I accept your bet. >:O

Games that are almost certain to beat KZ2 in March NPD:
Wii Fit
RE5 (360)
Pokemon

Games with a high probability of beating it:
Halo Wars
RE5 (PS3)
Wii Play

Games with a chance of beating it:
GTA Chinatown Wars
Mario Kart Wii
Mario Kart DS
various other Wii and DS games


I'm almost certain KZ2 will appear in the top 10 next month, though it will not be in the top 5. So anyway, I think it's a safe bet on your part.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Games that are almost certain to beat KZ2 in March NPD:
Wii Fit
RE5 (360)
Pokemon

Games with a high probability of beating it:
Halo Wars
RE5 (PS3)
Wii Play

Games with a chance of beating it:
GTA Chinatown Wars
Mario Kart Wii
Mario Kart DS
various other Wii and DS games


I'm almost certain KZ2 will appear in the top 10 next month, though it will not be in the top 5. So anyway, I think it's a safe bet on your part.

B, Wii Play lives on the NPD list. Predicting it MIGHT show up is insane.

 

[Interfectum]

:lol

 

[Narcosis]

So anyone else think CoD: WaW on 360 might slip in the 11-20 bracket next month with both Halo Wars and RE5 showing on the top 10 and the usual Wii stuff never leaving the top 10?

 

[poppabk]

Posted ? Nintendo's response :



Source

No mention of Sega among the thrid parties placed in the top 30 has me worried a bit for HOTD Overkill. I personally expected it to be placed at least in the top 20...

Yeah that is disappointing. I would count it as the first third party game on Wii that should have done well but didn't.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Furthermore the more advanced the system the bigger the install base has to be. Fancy games are expensive to make doncha know.

Certainly the combined install base of the 360 and PS3 is still to low to avoid 3rd party publishers from losing money making games for them.

Good point.

 

[Zhuk]

In regards to next month, I have a feeling the sales figure for KZ2 will be lower because games such as this are typically heavily front loaded in sales with pre-orders, but it is certainly possible. Whether it will hit the prediction Hoffman gave me for over 750k for feb+march we shall see.

In regards to the marketing and hype of KZ2, how can anyone say that there was no hype for Killzone 2, or that it was 'mishandled' by Sony?? they have been building up the game since E3 2005, the gaming press were all over it, the internet hype was absolutely massive, bigger than any game out there amongst the hardcore and it had TV advertising, posters and the usual pre-order stuff.

What else could they do? I honestly don't think a Halo style advertising is realistic for this game, but I would definitely argue that this game had better advertising and awareness than most games out there, i'd argue it was even better than Street Fighter IV's or Resident Evil 5's. This game is one of the PS3's biggest titles to come out to date. I feel it had all the recipes for success.

Has the game failed to connect with consumers? or is it because consumers are not attracted to exclusive offerings on PS3, or is this an issue tied to software sales on the PS3?

 

[Scrubking]

Yea, you're the only one who got my point.
Sega advertised the shit out of Overkill. And there was a ton of crosspromotion for MadWorld and Conduit. The three titles are very linked. If one doesn't do well, it negatively effects the others.

Still, it may sell fine longterm, but considering the upfront costs, yes I would say 135k is dissapointing. This was a title meant to have a big launch.

After all the light gun games they've made I'm pretty sure they know that the genre isn't a blockbuster. Now throw in all those other games it launched with that were blockbusters.

And I seriously doubt the sales of one title will affect another. (they're going to do well anyway).

 

[SuperBonk]

B, Wii Play lives on the NPD list. Predicting it MIGHT show up is insane.

Wii Play has a 100% chance of showing up. I was saying it has a high probability of beating KZ2.

 

[markatisu]

Okay. That would be worrying. I'm guessing 50kish. Just guessing.

Why would it be worrying? Yes it hard advertising but a 50-75k opening month would be a solid opening month

Anybody who was thinking 125-250k for a light gun game in its first month has delusions, REUC was the highest profile light gun game to date on Wii before HoTD Overkill and it pulled 121k (NPD Nov 2007 not even hitting the charts) mostly from the devoted RE audience during a holiday sales time who also snatched up a similar number of RE4 Wii copies in its first month

HoTD 2/3 Returns and Ghost Squad never pulled those numbers, so expecting an RE like performance imho was expecting too much, NERF relied on being boxed with a gun shell and a holidays sales push in order to reach its 500k

Seriously where the hell do you guys get your sales gauges

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Wii Play has a 100% chance of showing up. I was saying it has a high probability of beating KZ2.

Fair enough. Although personally I doubt even that.

 

[Sean]

Killzone 2 had...one commercial, a week before launch.

Sony did a horrible job advertising. I think this game will have much stronger legs than people might think, given that nearly no one knows about it. But Sony completely dropped the ball there.

Oh come on, Killzone 2 is hardly some unknown niche game. It's an amazing looking shooter in the most popular genre right now (FPS) and has nearly four years of hype behind it.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

No it's not a BS excuse, outside of the Hardcore PS customers and hardcore gamers, few people know about Killzone, they only started running ads for it after release. CoD4 sold 444k in November on the PS3 for its first month,and you're saying that Killzone 2 selling 300K in it's first two days is somehow a BS excuse?

November 2007
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (PS3) - Activision - 444 000
Release date: November 6, 2007
Number of day counted: 23

March 2009
Killzone 2 (PS3) - Sony Computer Entertainment - 323 000
Release Date: February 27, 2009
Number of days counted: 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Call_of_Duty_4
http://www.thesimexchange.com/blogpost.php?post_id=455

CoD has to be one of the least front loaded games for the PS3 or 360 so far. I'm not sure why you think KZ will be similar.

We know from watching Japanese sales and European rankings that games can do a pretty good fraction of their entire sales in just a few days.

 

[SuperBonk]

Fair enough. Although personally I doubt even that.

You're doubting it could beat KZ2? Because I think it will beat KZ2.

 

[w3stfa11]

Rough estimate on the cost of Killzone 2.

In 2006, it was expected to be over $21 million.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6162365.html

Surfer Girl, the halfway decent rumor blog (now defunct), wrote that its cost had ballooned up to $60 million.
http://web.archive.org/web/20080201.../01/disaster-you-guerrillas-have-created.html

Considering the long development time and countless delays, I don't think it's unreasonable to think the price tag for Killzone 2 is over $50 million.

 

[GSG Flash]

It's retarded to think that KZ2 won't even chart in the top 10 for March. In fact, it's so retarded that I'm gonna laugh at it: :lol

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

There was hype on the internet for Killzone 2, which resulted in over 300k internet hardcore gamers to buy the game.

There was ZERO hype outside the internet. I know it, you know it, and the sales show it. If you seriously think GAF is a barometer of gaming sales, well, you'd know we'd be seeing a very different top ten list right about now.

WTF there were commercials constantly for that game.

 

[chubigans]

Oh come on, Killzone 2 is hardly some unknown niche game. It's an amazing looking shooter in the most popular genre right now (FPS) and has nearly four years of hype behind it.

Weak. Seriously weak. No hype for Killzone 2? Really? What about the 2005 E3 CG trailer that was the major talking point of the entire conference? Even people who are not into serious gaming have heard of Killzone2 over the past few years. There was hype. More hype than FABLE 2 recieved, and that game made 300,000 in one day.

Again, hype only with the hardcore gamer and internet gamers that keep up with the games.

Obviously KZ2 didn't smash blockbusters because it's a bad game; it got excellent reviews. It didn't smash the charts because of other games; there weren't any major releases on the PS3 in Feb. So why didn't it sell a bit more? Lack of awareness, lack of hype.

Like I said before, everyone knew Halo 3 was coming, when it was coming, what platform it was coming on...it was impossible not to know because MS put it in your face wherever you went. Killzone 2 didn't come close to even doing anything like that. Halo 3 is hype done right, not some CG trailer shown four years ago and the steady flow of buzz by internet sites and gaming mags.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

You're doubting it could beat KZ2? Because I think it will beat KZ2.

I doubt that it "has a high probability of beating it". I think it's guaranteed.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Yeah that is disappointing. I would count it as the first third party game on Wii that should have done well but didn't.

Let's just hope it has legs. At least it can't be a bomb because it's doing exceptionally well in Europe.

 

[Stoney Mason]

While I think the 2 days sales were fine an unlike some people I think it still has a chance to do a good number next month, this Killzone 2 is a secret game that nobody ever heard of meme is weak.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Yea, you're the only one who got my point.
Sega advertised the shit out of Overkill. And there was a ton of crosspromotion for MadWorld and Conduit. The three titles are very linked. If one doesn't do well, it negatively effects the others.

Still, it may sell fine longterm, but considering the upfront costs, yes I would say 135k is dissapointing. This was a title meant to have a big launch.

Despite them having cross promotion I highly doubt that a lightgun game, a stylized beat-em-up action game, and a first person shooter would influence each other's sales. And I doubt that a lightgun game would have a big launch.

 

[markatisu]

Let's just hope it has legs. At least it can't be a bomb because it's doing exceptionally well in Europe.

Well it only needs to sell 455-500k in the US to be the #1 light gun game in the history of the Wii (not counting Links Crossbow Training)

REUC is around 455-460k after 1 1/2 years and NERF is past 500k after last holiday season

Those are the two bars for the genre in the US

And the bar for light gun game launches is REUC at 121k in Nov 2007 (a holiday season where everything gets inflated)

 

[Mr.Squirrel]

WTF there were commercials constantly for that game.

there were tons of commercials for LBP too, didn't make it a runaway hit. im somewhat biased tho because i got on the gaf hype train and it crashed and burned with me as the only passenger

Spoiler

yes i think the game really sucks and is massively overhyped on the internet

 

[SuperBonk]

I doubt that it "has a high probability of beating it". I think it's guaranteed.

Well by high probability I mean like it has a 90+% chance of happening.

But yeah, ok, I see what you're saying.

 

[Pachael]

Fingers crossed that Overkill fares better in Europe. Or we'd see the end of that partnership.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Fingers crossed that Overkill fares better in Europe. Or we'd see the end of that partnership.

It's done very well in the UK already.

 

[markatisu]

It's done very well in the UK already.

Yes its charted longer than REUC or HoTD 2/3 Returns ever did which were the standard bearers

No fear for the UK, Overkill is doing GREAT over there

 

[John Harker]

Seriously where the hell do you guys get your sales gauges

its kinda like, my job

 

[Pureauthor]

Fingers crossed that Overkill fares better in Europe. Or we'd see the end of that partnership.

That's something you shouldn't need to worry about.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Bottom line: $400+ Lackluster marketing + Bad Economy= RelativelyLackluster Sales. Personally I think 323,000 units in TWO DAYS in FEBRUARY on a system that has a entry level that is around TWO TIMES the amount of it's compeition is respectable. Granted it could've done better, but if anyone was expecting Halo 3 numbers, I would like to know what kind of meds you are taking and suggest you up your dosage.

Nobody was expecting Halo 3 numbers, since it would be stupid to expect the same sort of effect on a much smaller userbase. Killzone 2 is the biggest PS3 exclusive release to come along since MGS4 - a game that sold the majority of its LTD in its first month and a good deal of that, no doubt, on day one.

323K for this type of game is nothing short of underwhelming, regardless of what the competition is doing. For an exclusive like this, I'd have expected ~400K - 500K.

Also, stop using the economy as an excuse for the PS3's failures. It's disingenuous and ignores the fact that the audience for games like Killzone 2 are extremely price insensitive when it comes to getting what they want when they want it. Also, to use that as an excuse in the same month that SFIV sold a combined total of ~850K units... well, I don't know what to say.

Neither the PS3 or the 360 saw significant spikes this month, so a game doesn't need to be a system seller to do well, negating the ZOMG PS3 AM $400 argument.

There was hype on the internet for Killzone 2, which resulted in over 300k internet hardcore gamers to buy the game.

There was ZERO hype outside the internet. I know it, you know it, and the sales show it. If you seriously think GAF is a barometer of gaming sales, well, you'd know we'd be seeing a very different top ten list right about now.

Whether there was hype outside the net or no, I cannot say. I don't hang out with console gamers that often IRL and I don't live in the US, so I can't comment on the state of Sony's advertising.

I would question, however, how much of an effect advertising actually has on a game like this. Targeted advertising often just reaches the people who were going to buy the product anyway.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

so all those 60k post KZ2 threads were just giant circle jerks eh?

 

[Stoney Mason]

Neither the PS3 or the 360 saw significant spikes this month

Actually this was Microsoft's biggest non-holiday sales month with the exception of the launch of Halo 3.

 

[Dizzan]

It's retarded to think that KZ2 won't even chart in the top 10 for March. In fact, it's so retarded that I'm gonna laugh at it: :lol

I wish people like you would stop using retarded to describe something that isn't cool. It's disgusting.

 

[Zen]

so all those 60k post KZ2 threads were just giant circle jerks eh?

Try to contain your glee (the answer is still no).

 

[ghst]

I wish people like you would stop using retarded to describe something that isn't cool. It's disgusting.

yeah. it's pretty dumb.

 

[EDarkness]

Fingers crossed that Overkill fares better in Europe. Or we'd see the end of that partnership.

Lightgun games don't light up the charts. I don't know why people were expecting Overkill to do all that well. Maybe this will convince EA that Deadspace shooter isn't a good idea.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

yeah. it's pretty dumb.

You are saying it can't speak?