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[CouldBeWorse]

Here's the point I was trying to make last month:

January and February are the slowest retail months of the year. There were people willing to predict the eminent doom of the Wii U (and Nintendo as a company) based on ONE month of sales. People were honestly expecting February to be worse, and in fact, it was slightly better.

Point being (if I hadn't made it clear enough), no one has enough data to conclude the Nintendo ecosystem is in any trouble. There's simply not enough data to draw that conclusion.

What I don't understand is how, Nintendo is:

1) Managing a handheld (3DS) which is doing great.

2) Possessing a console (The Wii U) which had a successful launch that sold slightly over 3 million world wide during the holiday season; more than both the X360 and the PS3 did in their respective launches.

3) Hiring more developers in not only Japan, but the US as well. This includes developers from studios such as Naughty Dog and Vigil Games to name a few

4) Nintendo building brand new corporate buildings to host entirely brand new development studios

5) Majority of 3rd party developers saying nothing but good things about the Wii U.


...Yet, Nintendo is doomed - but, somehow, Sony, who is:

1) Losing investors immediately after the PS4 unveiling.

2) Selling off corporate assets such as separate smaller companies under their umbrella and whole corporate buildings.

3) Laying off workers.

4) Shutting down development studios

5) Reporting billion dollar loses year after year (for 5 years in a row)

6) Losing relevancy in their stock

7) Undergoing severe restructuring

Somehow, Sony is doing great! They don't show any signs of going 3rd party or even disappearing off the face of the map. Does this make any sense to you? It doesn't make any sense to me!

That sure is selective revisionism. Nintendo's stock is down 85% over the past 4 years.

 

[HEALTH_DISCO]

Stupid dudebros.

FPS and Sports game... Double facepalm.

 

[Jarmel]

That has to be abysmal for Crysis 3 on a $66M budget.

I wonder how much dough they lost.

 

[Tagg9]

Crytek will be fine, remember this is just one territory. Crysis games usually sell on PC, they must have done well with digital sales and in Europe.



No, the only reason why this series went multiplatform was because of the poor performance and high piracy rate on PC.

Oh, Crytek will be fine but I'm sure EA will be hurting a bit.

They projected sales of a million units in NA, and it they likely won't make half of that. Even that projection was down from what they initially expected/wanted, which was probably in the ballpark of 2-3 million units.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=504663

 

[KillerMan91]

Crytek will be fine, remember this is just one territory. Crysis games usually sell on PC, they must have done well with digital sales and in Europe.



No, the only reason why this series went multiplatform was because of the poor performance and high piracy rate on PC.

Not to mention that they are swimming in money brought by engine licenses and their f2p game Warface that has been huge hit in Russia and Eastern Europe. They are more than fine.

 

[Cronq]

So we're all expecting PS4 and Xbox to save the industry, right?

And their secret weapons are Facebook, webcams, and DVR's?

Valve announced 50% growth this past year and MS, Sony, Nintendo, and all the big publishers are moving in the opposite direction. Morons...

 

[Petrichor]

So we're all expecting PS4 and Xbox to save the industry, right?

And their secret weapons are Facebook, webcams, and DVR's?

Valve announced 50% growth this past year and MS, Sony, Nintendo, and all the big publishers are moving in the opposite direction. Morons...

At least Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are releasing games and not letting succesful franchises languish for over half a decade.

 

[Fabrik]

< 260k for MGRR on both PS3 and Xbox 360?

It's the end of our world as we know it.

There's only 200k hardcore gamers (with money) in the US?

 

[Cat Party]

Crysis 2 bombed, the series never pulled great numbers even when it was PC exclusive.

I thought Crysis 2 did several millions.

 

[maabus1999]

I may be need to be corrected but I believe in the UK they have the right to return software titles by law? So if true, I wonder what the return rate was?

 

[gcubed]

So we're all expecting PS4 and Xbox to save the industry, right?

And their secret weapons are Facebook, webcams, and DVR's?

Valve announced 50% growth this past year and MS, Sony, Nintendo, and all the big publishers are moving in the opposite direction. Morons...

It's almost as if you've never lived through a shift in a generation

 

[DragonSworne]

Reggie is doing a terrible job

Wii U selling horribly (not really ALL his fault) but the 3DS is doing terribly. How can the 3DS not sell.

This man is incompetent

FE could have easily broke 250k if the supply was there. He clearly underestimated demand. Incompetent

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Man, modern NPDs...how lame with no numbers. Funny that MS is the only one sharing more detailed numbers while Ninty and Sony are too busy being afraid of how it makes them look, month after month after month after month.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Expect 50M to be the norm for next gen.

Games will need to sell 1 million units to break even.

Games already need 2-3m to break even tho.

 

[SniperHunter]

I thought Crysis 2 did several millions.

Maybe at $10 - $20 a copy

Original NPD

NPD April 2011
Software (New Physical Retail only) - System Ordering Does Not Indicate Sales Ordering
01. Mortal Kombat 2011 (PS3, 360)** Warner Bros. Interactive - 1+ Million With Special Editions (Much Higher Debut Than Both Street Fighter IV and MvC 3)
02. Portal 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts - 637K NOTE: 360 version sold 60% more than PS3 version
03. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii, NDS, 360, 3DS, PS3, PC) LucasArts
04. Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, NDS, Wii, PC)** Activision Blizzard
05. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 12: The Masters (360, PS3, Wii)** Electronic Arts
06. Crysis 2 (360, PS3, PC) Electronic Arts - 236K
07. Just Dance 2 (Wii) Ubisoft
08. Michael Jackson The Experience (360, Wii, PS3, NDS, PSP) Ubisoft
09. Pokemon White Version (NDS) Nintendo
10. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2, PC) Take 2 Interactive - 190K

 

[A Human Becoming]

Everything is up.

	[B]per week % increase over January[/B]
[B]X360[/B]	34.34
[B]PS3[/B]	63.75
[B]Wii[/B]	23.75
[B]WiiU[/B]	44.74
[B]3DS[/B]	62.93
[B]NDS[/B]	80.36
[B]PSV[/B]	35.71
[B]PSP[/B]	12.50

Except we found the max for the DS last month to be 74k. jvm and I both had it at less than 80k. creamsugar said it was closer to 50k than 100k.

EDIT: Went back to check how we knew it was <75k.

 

[Saty]

No, the only reason why this series went multiplatform was because of the poor performance and high piracy rate on PC.

It wasn't 'poor performance' by any stretch. Yerli thought the game could do x3-x4 more on consoles looking at FPS games there.

The last figure for Crysis 2 was it shipped 3 million. Crysis 1 was at 3 million in May 2010.

 

[Raist]

1) Managing a handheld (3DS) which is doing great.

2) Possessing a console (The Wii U) which had a successful launch that sold slightly over 3 million world wide during the holiday season; more than both the X360 and the PS3 did in their respective launches.

3) Hiring more developers in not only Japan, but the US as well. This includes developers from studios such as Naughty Dog and Vigil Games to name a few

4) Nintendo building brand new corporate buildings to host entirely brand new development studios

5) Majority of 3rd party developers saying nothing but good things about the Wii U.

1. The 3DS is now doing great in Japan. It had a terrible launch though, is OK in NA but quite hurt by the DS sales which are still on the same level, and doing terrible in Europe.

2. Slightly under 2, not 3. That was the initla shipment. Sales numbers are atrocious after the holiday season, far behind last gen consoles, and supply is absolutely not an issue.

3. That's not a sign of success. Especially considering the bleak software output. They let the Wii die years ago, so you'd think they would have done that ages ago. Still, they're not releasing shit.

4. Same than 3, how is building offices relevant to their sales?

5. Yeah well, Kojima said he loooooved the Wii and would like to develop for it. I'm not even quite sure where all this positive talk is, when major studios say they don't really have plans for WiiU now, or canned them.
I think we've also read a lot of bad things from publishers who actually released games which bombed horribly.

 

[Van Owen]

Reggie is doing a terrible job

Wii U selling horribly (not really ALl his fault) but the 3DS is doing terribly. How can the 3DS not sell.

This man is incompetent

FE could have easily broke 250k if the supply was there. He clearly underestimated demand. Incompetent

Wii U is selling horribly everywhere though.

 

[CadetMahoney]

So we're all expecting PS4 and Xbox to save the industry, right?

And their secret weapons are Facebook, webcams, and DVR's?

Nah Sony is concentrating on core gamers and the highest hardware specs so industry saved.

 

[DragonSworne]

Wii U is selling horribly everywhere though.

But 3DS isn't

NA is Nintendo's biggest market, yet the 3DS is doing the worst here compared to all other regions.

Clearly Reggie's fault.

 

[Taurus]

So we're all expecting PS4 and Xbox to save the industry, right?

And their secret weapons are Facebook, webcams, and DVR's?

Valve announced 50% growth this past year and MS, Sony, Nintendo, and all the big publishers are moving in the opposite direction. Morons...

Video game crash is coming. We'll see how big it will be in a few years.

But if I have to predict, I'm predicting that the one that is doing financially terribly already and expecting big moneys with loss/leader tactics in the totally changed market will be hit. Hard.

Also, the one's thinking there are enough people that will want to play big budget movies (press X to win!) are going to extremely surprised in a bad way.

 

[test_account]

Reggie is doing a terrible job

Wii U selling horribly (not really ALl his fault) but the 3DS is doing terribly. How can the 3DS not sell.

This man is incompetent

FE could have easily broke 250k if the supply was there. He clearly underestimated demand. Incompetent

Its hard to know exactly how much demand there is for a game. Fire Emblem could have ended up selling less than it did as well, i dont think there were any guarantee for that it would sell like it did. I wouldnt call this being incompetent.

 

[Akkad]

< 260k for MGRR on both PS3 and Xbox 360?

It's the end of our world as we know it.

There's only 200k hardcore gamers (with money) in the US?

Can we stop putting gamers in dumb categories? I tried playing the MGR demo twice and just couldn't finish it, I don't like COD games and I bought Ni No Kuni. Am I hardcore or casual or who the fuck cares. Also, dudebro is another dumb word that GAF runs with, so fucking annoying.

 

[Phonomezer]

The Wii U isn't dead, but that isn't going to stop me from calling it the Wiitney Uston.

 

[angular graphics]

No, the only reason why this series went multiplatform was because of the poor performance and high piracy rate on PC.

LOL. Yerli said if there was no piracy the game (edit: talking about Crysis 1) would sell 4x more copies than it did. Which means he believes it would sell 12 million copies. Are you stupid enough to believe in the shit he says?

 

[Mpl90]

1. The 3DS is now doing great in Japan. It had a terrible launch though, is OK in NA but quite hurt by the DS sales which are still on the same level, and doing terrible in Europe.

Why this misinformation? Last year in some European countries 3DS has been second just to PS3, and in some others it has been the best selling console for the whole year.

 

[Taurus]

Man, modern NPDs...how lame with no numbers. Funny that MS is the only one sharing more detailed numbers while Ninty and Sony are too busy being afraid of how it makes them look, month after month after month after month.

Nintendo shared them too when they were number one with Wii and DS. Would you expect MS to share those numbers if they were dead last or doing otherwise bad compared to competition? It's just PR.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I don't think they underestimated Fire Emblem demand, just that something in the distribution network broke and wasn't able to get the copies to retailers.

Which is still all kinds of incompetent but for different reasons.

 

[test_account]

Also, the one's thinking there are enough people that will want to play big budget movies (press X to win!) are going to extremely surprised in a bad way.

Hard to know how these things will sell when it doesnt excist.

I don't think they underestimated Fire Emblem demand, just that something in the distribution network broke and wasn't able to get the copies to retailers.

Which is still all kinds of incompetent but for different reasons.

How long did it take them to restock compared to whats normal in a sell-out situation?

 

[SniperHunter]

LOL. Yerli said if there was no piracy the game would sell 4x more copies than it did. Which means he believes it would sell 12 million copies. Are you stupid enough to believe in the shit he says?

I don't care what Yerli says, the man is fucking insane. I am just saying they weren't happy with the sales of Crysis 1 and Warhead, and then decided to port the engine to consoles since they probably wanted CoD or Halo type sales figures.

At the end of the day it wasn't worth it, nobody used Cry Engine 3 on consoles, the games looked and ran like shit and the sales didn't take off. If anything it hurt the quality of the series. Crysis 1 and Crysis Warhead >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Crysis 2 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Crysis 3

They got greedy and they got screwed. I am not going to argue with you delusional fanboys anymore.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

Clearly Reggie's fault.

What do you think Reggie's job entails, exactly? He is a paid puppet for NOJ. If they let him go it will only be for PR or stock reasons. The real fault lies back in Japan.

 

[megabytecr]

Could digital copies be affecting more and more the NPD numbers, I moved to the digital realm and wonder how is this tracked, and what is the impact on sales?I have bought aprox. 10 games digitally during the past 6 months and 2 games retail.

 

[Striek]

But 3DS isn't

NA is Nintendo's biggest market, yet the 3DS is doing the worst here compared to all other regions.

Clearly Reggie's fault.

Its doing bad in the UK as well and it was well down YoY in Europe even though we know it did better in some places like France.

Its not just the US.

 

[SmokedMeat]

So we're all expecting PS4 and Xbox to save the industry, right?

And their secret weapons are Facebook, webcams, and DVR's?

Valve announced 50% growth this past year and MS, Sony, Nintendo, and all the big publishers are moving in the opposite direction. Morons...

Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are different animals than Valve. They're in the business of making their own videogames, not selling other people's games.

 

[Quentyn]

Wii U 66k (70% Deluxe)
PS3 263k

www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-03-15-wii-u-sells-66-000-in-february

 

[Kusagari]

But 3DS isn't

NA is Nintendo's biggest market, yet the 3DS is doing the worst here compared to all other regions.

Clearly Reggie's fault.

Is the 3DS actually doing that great in Europe?

 

[AranhaHunter]

But 3DS isn't

NA is Nintendo's biggest market, yet the 3DS is doing the worst here compared to all other regions.

Clearly Reggie's fault.

I think that's Apple and Google's fault, not Reggie's.

 

[Aquamarine]

Wii U 66k (70% Deluxe)
PS3 263k

www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-03-15-wii-u-sells-66-000-in-february

Well, that settles that. Our estimates were essentially spot-on.

Nirolak, I think this deserves a thread update...don't you think?

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Nintendo shared them too when they were number one with Wii and DS. Would you expect MS to share those numbers if they were dead last or doing otherwise bad compared to competition? It's just PR.

I don't know if they would stop like Ninty and Sony have, but it wouldn't surprise me. Let's see if that happens, since next-gen launches this year may not have such a great start, similar to Wii U. I just find it funny that only one shares their home console numbers now and it's apparently just good enough at the top of the pack to be shared, but everything else is too low, exposing just how poorly the market, in general, seems to be faring. Everyone knows that the others have lower numbers and even extrapolates a very accurate range by a week or two into a new NPD reporting period, so why bother hiding it, exactly? Stocks affected? Doesn't seem so.

 

[Burbank_]

Maybe underperformed, but not really bombed - this game had only 12 days. Still, it's most likely less than Crysis 2's debut.

I just played Warhead and it's really good. How can they get progressively worse. It's like they un-learn with every new entry?

 

[yankeehater]

Dead Space 3 - 605k
Crysis 3 - 260k

http://www.gamespot.com/news/dead-space-3-us-sales-hit-605000-6405376

Sad to see Crysis 3 do so poorly. I actually really like it. I wonder if people were turned off by how bad the 2nd game was. The mp in 3 is a lot of fun and hopefully more people will check it out at somepoint.

 

[maabus1999]

Wii U 66k (70% Deluxe)
PS3 263k

www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-03-15-wii-u-sells-66-000-in-february

Not sure why the analyst gets that Nintendo will reach their 4 million target (unless they channel stuff) by the end of March from these and Media Create's numbers.

Wii U is still selling somewhere around 30 to 40K a week worldwide, or 160K a month.

If The Wii U was about 3 million by Dec 31, that is showing approximately 3.5 million by end of March at current purchase rates, far short of the 4 million "reduced" forecast.

Nintendo would have to push ~500K Wii U's on to retailers to claim they met this forecast, or in other words, an extra 3 months of stock on top of what ever retailers are currently holding. That is a stretch.

EDIT: The 70% Deluxe attach rate is a gold mine of a data point. That basically shows demand is for consumers who are knowledagble about this system to understand it's value versus the basic (i.e., hardcore gamers and/or knowledgable consumers being the bulk of the purchasing market segment). The basic would be a draw to price conscience casual audience.

 

[Phonomezer]

Crysis 3 is incredibly polished, but there's just nothing exciting about it. Quarter of a million is really quite awful, though. They'll do well if they recoup even half the dev costs.

Crysis is a boring, "safe", by-the-numbers FPS with some bells and whistles that don't impact the gameplay enough to separate it from the sea of homogeneity it wades through.

 

[Nirolak]

Thanks everyone.

OP updated.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Thanks everyone.

OP updated.

263k, not 283k.

 

[jmood88]

Reggie is doing a terrible job

Wii U selling horribly (not really ALL his fault) but the 3DS is doing terribly. How can the 3DS not sell.

This man is incompetent

FE could have easily broke 250k if the supply was there. He clearly underestimated demand. Incompetent

I'm sure it's Reggie's fault and has nothing to do with the fact that there are more handheld devices out there than ever that are more than capable of getting games.

 

[Nirolak]

263k, not 283k.

Sorry I can't type today.

Fixed.

 

[Celine]

Why this misinformation? Last year in some European countries 3DS has been second just to PS3, and in some others it has been the best selling console for the whole year.

Because otherwise he couldn't respond to that point?

Not that 3DS is doing that great in US...

 

[jim-jam bongs]

Crytek will be fine, remember this is just one territory. Crysis games usually sell on PC, they must have done well with digital sales and in Europe.



No, the only reason why this series went multiplatform was because of the poor performance and high piracy rate on PC.

So you're saying that Crytek games sell well on PC but Crysis 2 was multiplatform because Crysis sold poorly on PC?

Tell us more oh sagely one.