There's no number digesting tonight. We're starving, man:
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
theprodigy
Member
N64/GC really didn't get most of the 3rd parties, although obviously they're both a 3rd party heaven compared to the Wii U
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Personally I think a lot of Xbox only owners last gen who own ps4s now helped a lot. They want that naughty dog goodness.
Exactly... I've been a Nintendo fan since the NES and even I see no reason to buy a Nintendo console for the type of games that a 18-35 year old male would enjoy when I could easily get a PlayStation or Xbox and be happy with that.
Technically, neither N64 or GC really failed, at least to the extent that Wii U has. N64 got second to the PS1 and GC was only two million from second place. I'd argue that the issue Nintendo and Microsoft have is that PlayStation is just massively popular as a brand specific to console gaming. At the brand's worst, the PS3 still sold like more than 80 million and around the same number as the 360. At the brand's best, we got the domination of the PS2, the best selling console of all time. Sony had every reason to be arrogant in the PS2 era but ultimately, they were right about the loyalty of the PlayStation audience if the 80 million sales of PS3 are any indication.
As for the lack of loyalty between console makers, I think the reason why the PlayStation brand is massively popular is that Sony is much more of a globally focused company in terms of consoles than either Microsoft or Nintendo are. Microsoft's much too focused on America which ends up making their system attractive enough to the American audience to replace PlayStation in their eyes, but does not help outside of America. Nintendo's much too focused on Japan which ends up making their system attractive enough to the Japanese audience to replace PlayStation in their eyes, but does not help outside of Japan. Meanwhile, Sony not only focuses on America and Japan, but also Europe. Sony is very much at home at E3, Gamescom, AND TGS in that their system will have games that appeal to the American audience, the European audience, and the Japanese audience. Sony has a global focus which helps PlayStation do as well as it does.
Boring old month. Standard appeal to pricedrops from every manufacturer, the (assumed range of) sales are pretty paltry overall.
I would expect it to comfortably get there. Might end up around 8 million on PS3 and 2.5-4 on PS4.
I would expect it to comfortably get there. Might end up around 8 million on PS3 and 2.5-4 on PS4.
MisterGrey3000
Member
A multitude of factors; incompatible software ecosystems (with 5th/6th gen 3rd party pubs), confusing marketing (this vs this), unclear branding ("Is this for kids or older people??"), and alienating hardware design (complicated controller, cartridges, purple lunch box/purse aesthetic, mini disc). I'm sure there are more, but these are the few that pop into my head at the moment.
The WiiU and even the 3DS share most of these problems with the NGC/N64 while the successful Wii/DS/NES/SNES/GB/GBC/GBA never really had any of these issues.
Chobel
Member
Imru al-Qays
Banned
You and me both. What're the odds they decided to just make it for PS4 and that's the cause for the delay?
Okay, we have from shinra's PR math that PS4 + XB1 was 384K, along with confirmation.
We have the below inequality equations.
XB1 + 360 < PS4
XB1 + WiU < PS4 + PS3
From that we assume
XB1 + WIU > PS4
WIU was calculated to be ~81K.
We also have confirmation that the GAF Aggregate Predictions were "good" and that PS4 is #1.
Let's assume the aggregate numbers are perfect after replacing WIU with 81K. Does that fit the above equations?
XB1 (131K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (221K) true
XB1 (131K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (221K) + PS3 (34K) true
(assumed) XB1 (131K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (221K) false
XB1 (131K) + PS4 (221K) = 384K false
Okay, not perfect, but a start. We are assuming that the difference between PS4 and XB1 is < WIU, so let's go with that and see what we get.
(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 80K
PS4 + XB1 = 384K
Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 232K and XB1 would be 152K. That's the min XB1 number. Highest?
(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 2K (since the total is an even number, the diff has to be an even number)
PS4 + XB1 = 384K
Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 193K and XB1 would be 191K.
PS4 between 193K and 232K (probably near high end of range)
XB1 between 152K and 191K (probably near low end of range or else the PR would be different)
So let's go with PS4 ~222K and XB1 ~162K. Does that now works with the above equations?
XB1 (162K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (222K) true
XB1 (162K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (222K) + PS3 (34K) true
(assumed) XB1 (162K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (222K) true
XB1 (162K) + PS4 (222K) = 384K true
Okay, so that works, so let's see how that lays out.
Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 222K
2. XB1 - 162K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K
Hey, it's something! :lol
Edit:
Oh, yeah, Vita is confirmed < 17K, too.
----------------------------------------------
Part of OP below, but it was wrong. Just keeping it for reference.
Didn't work, and in fact, none of the ranges work with the above PS360 hardware values. Therefore, the PS360 hardware values would seem to be in error. In fact, we'd have to have PS3 > 360 to make the above work, so let's try switching the PS3 and 360 numbers and using the min XB1 range.
XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) < PS4 (232K) true
XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (232K) + PS3 (48K) true
(assumed) XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (232K) true
XB1 (152K) + PS4 (2321K) = 384K true
That at least fits everything, so let's try working off that.
We have the below inequality equations.
XB1 + 360 < PS4
XB1 + WiU < PS4 + PS3
From that we assume
XB1 + WIU > PS4
WIU was calculated to be ~81K.
We also have confirmation that the GAF Aggregate Predictions were "good" and that PS4 is #1.
Let's assume the aggregate numbers are perfect after replacing WIU with 81K. Does that fit the above equations?
XB1 (131K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (221K) true
XB1 (131K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (221K) + PS3 (34K) true
(assumed) XB1 (131K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (221K) false
XB1 (131K) + PS4 (221K) = 384K false
Okay, not perfect, but a start. We are assuming that the difference between PS4 and XB1 is < WIU, so let's go with that and see what we get.
(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 80K
PS4 + XB1 = 384K
Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 232K and XB1 would be 152K. That's the min XB1 number. Highest?
(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 2K (since the total is an even number, the diff has to be an even number)
PS4 + XB1 = 384K
Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 193K and XB1 would be 191K.
PS4 between 193K and 232K (probably near high end of range)
XB1 between 152K and 191K (probably near low end of range or else the PR would be different)
So let's go with PS4 ~222K and XB1 ~162K. Does that now works with the above equations?
XB1 (162K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (222K) true
XB1 (162K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (222K) + PS3 (34K) true
(assumed) XB1 (162K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (222K) true
XB1 (162K) + PS4 (222K) = 384K true
Okay, so that works, so let's see how that lays out.
Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 222K
2. XB1 - 162K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K
Hey, it's something! :lol
Edit:
Oh, yeah, Vita is confirmed < 17K, too.
----------------------------------------------
Part of OP below, but it was wrong. Just keeping it for reference.
Didn't work, and in fact, none of the ranges work with the above PS360 hardware values. Therefore, the PS360 hardware values would seem to be in error. In fact, we'd have to have PS3 > 360 to make the above work, so let's try switching the PS3 and 360 numbers and using the min XB1 range.
XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) < PS4 (232K) true
XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (232K) + PS3 (48K) true
(assumed) XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (232K) true
XB1 (152K) + PS4 (2321K) = 384K true
That at least fits everything, so let's try working off that.
Why are there so few numbers this month. 
Creamsugar Aquamarine Cosmicqueso, pls.
And Vita <17k
Creamsugar Aquamarine Cosmicqueso, pls.
And Vita <17k
theprodigy
Member
Yeah sorry, not buying the PS3>360 jump.
where are the vita numbers?
You rock at math. Extra-polating FTW. Most Economists and I'm sure NPD, uses Non-Linear Regression and tries to come up with variables for everything from the market, people's median incomes, marketability, etc. your equation is a good guess without going complex
Vita < 17k
theprodigy
Member
I thought it was XB1+Wii U<PS4+PS3, no 360 included?
MisterGrey3000
Member
Hmmmm...I don't know if I can agree with that.
The N64 was a complete failure in Japan (only selling around 5 million units; a huge drop off from the SNES's 17 million), it never managed to gain back any ground that the Genesis had stolen from the NES or improve on the NES's NA numbers despite being more western focused (The SNES and N64's NA LTD is around a stagnant 20 mill while the NES was around 34 million), and it failed to stop the new-comer console from completely dominating it. I feel that you kind of have to do a bit of stretching to make the N64 sound like a successful console in any area that doesn't involve software.
The NGC...well...do we really need to debate on that? Iwata has pretty much flat out admitted that it was a failure in almost every respect, and he never wanted to see the company in that position again.
:/
shinra-bansho
Member
Still no concrete numbers?
I think one of your inequalities is off donny, it's not XBO+360+WIU < PS4+PS3, it's just XBO+WIU.
Need an additional constraint around the last gen systems to get a proper estimation I think.
I think one of your inequalities is off donny, it's not XBO+360+WIU < PS4+PS3, it's just XBO+WIU.
Need an additional constraint around the last gen systems to get a proper estimation I think.
If the 81K Wii U number is actually too high or if the PS4-XB1 difference is actually > Wii U, 360 might eek out a win over PS3. Otherwise, PS3 would have to be over 360 to fit the below equations, unless I missed something.
Hopefully this gives enough impetus to get more creatively minded math and science goddesses going...
XB1 + 360 + WiU < PS4 + PS3
(assumed) XB1 + 360 + WIU > PS4
XB1 + PS4 = 384K
Chobel
Member
Creamsugar didn't write the bold part, he wrote XB1 + WiU < PS4 + PS3
travisbickle
Member
If we take "strong and steady pace" MS PR to mean same weekly average as last month, a 5 to 4 week change would be
June XB1 = 197k to July XB1 = 158k
That's all I got.
Oh, was thinking it was Xbox family + Wii U. Yep, that changes things!
As per Cream Sugar
Xbox family < PS4
WiiU + XB1 < PS4 + PS3
It means for the month of July, the PS4 version sold more than the PS3 version. It's not a comparison between LTD of the two.
Doesnt it just count for the previous NDP? Like Remaster would obviously sell more last month?
shinra-bansho
Member
These are the numbers I guestimate using the constraints we have and/or are assuming/inferring (i.e. XBO + Wii U > PS4).
PS4 - 232.5K
XBO - 151.5K
WIU - 81K (as a constant in these estimations)
360 - 81K
PS3 - 40.5K
These numbers should fit those inequalities.
But we need more info really.
PS4 - 232.5K
XBO - 151.5K
WIU - 81K (as a constant in these estimations)
360 - 81K
PS3 - 40.5K
These numbers should fit those inequalities.
But we need more info really.
Yep, so that makes the first pass guess after figuring out the ranges for PS4 and XB1 (ranges are still good) work. Going with that instead, then.
Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 222K (193K-232K)
2. XB1 - 162K (152K-191K)
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K
7. PSV - 16K
Ottoni_Bastos
Banned
ok guys it's ~3:40am here in Brazil so i need to sleep!
To Creamsugar and Aquamarine...
...you were the chosen ones!
To Creamsugar and Aquamarine...
...you were the chosen ones!
Yeah there is no way PS3 was above 360.
From Microsofts PR it seems their weekly sales (XO) are very similar to June.
That would mean for June 197 / 5 = 39,4k /week
For July that would mean 39,4 x 4 = 157,6k
That would mean PS4 384 - 157,6 = 226,4k for July
Sorry if that's been posted already.
From Microsofts PR it seems their weekly sales (XO) are very similar to June.
That would mean for June 197 / 5 = 39,4k /week
For July that would mean 39,4 x 4 = 157,6k
That would mean PS4 384 - 157,6 = 226,4k for July
Sorry if that's been posted already.
airmangataosenai
Member
So with all we know (PS4+XBO is around 384k, Wii U at 81K, XBO+Wii U > PS4, PS4 > XBO), we can create a few ranges.
If we simply say they were even, we get that the XBO and PS4 sold 191,999 and 192,001 respectively. This would represent the absolute minimum possible sales for PS4 and absolute maximum sales possible in the range for XBO, and would require the PS3 to of outsold the Wii U.
If we assume the PS3 sold 0 units, that places the PS4 at 232.5k for it's absolute maximum and XBO at 151.5k for it's absolute minimum. Obviously figures close to either of these extremes are unlikely so it's probably somewhere in the middle. My guess would probably be about 170k XBO, 214k PS4.
If we simply say they were even, we get that the XBO and PS4 sold 191,999 and 192,001 respectively. This would represent the absolute minimum possible sales for PS4 and absolute maximum sales possible in the range for XBO, and would require the PS3 to of outsold the Wii U.
If we assume the PS3 sold 0 units, that places the PS4 at 232.5k for it's absolute maximum and XBO at 151.5k for it's absolute minimum. Obviously figures close to either of these extremes are unlikely so it's probably somewhere in the middle. My guess would probably be about 170k XBO, 214k PS4.
Yeah, the main difference is that we got a "good" description for the aggregate numbers in the prediction thread from someone who would know, so going with those values straight out. 81K for 360 in July doesn't fit the monthly trends.
SwiftDeath
Member
360 estimate seems a bit high. Others are plausible
I don't think 360 sold that much
Well wouldn't that be actually kind of a good result for the xb1 in comparison to the ps4?
theprodigy
Member
So....it's looking like XB1 is holding its weekly rate from June?
because even the bare minimum would be a 5% drop
because even the bare minimum would be a 5% drop
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
If we assume the difference between both equuations is the same, doing maths
x 159k
ps4 205k
x 159k
ps4 205k
airmangataosenai
Member
I think even the minimums aren't too bad personally. It's not breaking the bank but over 150k is a solid enough result for July.
unknownstranger
Member
Where did people get XBO + 360 + Wii U < PS4 + PS3? Playstation was the highest selling console brand this month. That doesn't necessarily mean PS4 + PS3 > 50% of all console sales. It means PS4 + PS3 > Wii U (which we knew already) and PS4 + PS3 > Xbox One + 360.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes it does appear that XB1 has at least maintained its weekly rate or close to it
The 360 part was incorrect. The correct equation is XB1 + WIU < PS4 + PS3.
nope crem said ps4 > xbone + 360
shinra-bansho
Member
Ah I missed that part.
If you straight out use the GAF aggregate numbers for the 360 and PS3, then plugging these into Excel Solver, gives me 216K for the PS4 and 169K for the XBO. Edit, actually on further inspection it says there's no feasible solution, so those numbers have to be off somewhat.
I guess we'll just have to wait for something more concrete to leak.