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[Stoney Mason]

For what it's worth here was my Killzone 2 sales prediction.


http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14401391&postcount=222

First Month. 500k
Second Month 250K

Slow but steady from there on out. Let's say finish out at 1.3 M US only obviously

As far as PS3 bump I'll just say that I think it will still get outsold that month by the 360 and Wii.

Pure guesses and very conservative I'll admit but at least it's an actual statement rather than Killzone will be huge where huge doesn't mean anything and can be retracted later.

Edit: Btw what I would consider it to have to reach to be a mega hit and appreciably change any factor for the Ps3 fortunes it would have to nearly double all those numbers above in all instances.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I think the reason why Killzone did not sell as well as might be expected is fairly obvious, but perhaps I have a different sense of what is obvious than others do.

I have a strong belief in "genre kings," games that straddle their genre and stifle competition, particularly competition that relies heavily on mimesis. Final Fantasy is an excellent example of this. So is Mario (as in the platformer). So is Gran Turismo. Games of similar quality can be released in the same genre and sell a small fraction of those franchises.

FPS are a younger genre on consoles, but I think they are rapidly reaching maturity. For First Person Shooters, those king games are Call of Duty, Halo, and perhaps Half Life (it certainly was at one point, but I can't tell if it is any longer because PC sales are hard to come by). From what I understand, Killzone is fairly light on gameplay expirementation: it sticks to the axioms of the genre, but does so in a very polished way.

I would argue that the window of opportunity to create a new "genre king" has essentially closed -- particularly for a platform exclusive. No amount of money, no amount of polish can break through at this point.

You may be right. It'd be the same reason there aren't more Zelda clones. Look at Okami or Beyond Good and Evil and their sales impact.

Shooters need to branch out into new genres.

Well it's not actually 2 months, it's more like 1 Month and 2 days of sales. I mean it only counted for 2 days worth of sales in April.

One month and two days during which it was still outsold by a console RTS

 

[Opiate]

"Genre Kings" are established on two principles:

1) Who started first? Coming up with the idea gives you an enormous advantage. The best example of this is Mario: I think a number of extremely well polished platformers have been made in the past few generations, but none has come close to Mario's sales. This is the first mover's advantage: if you come up with the idea, you will often find yourself continuing to win even if other quality products arise to copy you.

2) Polish. However, it is possible for copycats to supersede the originals: consider Starcraft as a reasonable example. If a game is polished enough with high enough production values, it can overcome the first mover advantage.

However, it's important to note that the amount of polish necessary to overcome "I came up with the idea" status increases over time. That is, the second game in the genre needs to be significantly more polished than the originator of the genre if it hopes to overcome it, but it does not need to be a 50 million dollar project. By the time the genre has reached maturity and a plethora of games are being released, however, then it really would take an enormous effort to unseat the king.

And that's where we are now: the kings are so well established in the FPS genre, the stakes are already so high, that we've essentially reached a threshold where unseating Halo/CoD isn't possible, no matter the budget or the polish.

 

[yellowjacket]

I think the average players are gravitating back to both World at War and Modern Warfare where there are still large stable player bases.

I also think the lack of a plain vanilla deathmatch/team deathmatch mode is hurting it as well. Not everybody wants to play objective based games all the time, and some people just flat out refuse to play anything that isn't just killing the other team.

The game has team deathmatch, its called bodycount, but you are probably right about the lack of single player deathmatch. They probably should have included that. Although a single player deathmatch game on Radec with rockets would probably be the craziest shooter game ever.

 

[Rated-Rsuperstar]

One month and two days during which it was still outsold by a console RTS

You really hate Killzone don't you.

 

[Zen]

One month and two days during which it was still outsold by a console RTS

Fair enough

 

[AranhaHunter]

Really, the most shocking part about this is that the KZ2 thread has 3.5 million views, an OP that's 6 pages long, and a staff on hand to Killzonify your avatar. I'm surprised that didn't translate into more sales.

GAF != real world, what good is it if there are barely any commercials for the game? Just compare the advertising of Killzone 2 to that of Gears or Halo 3.

 

[AdventureRacing]

When talking about K2's sales, a lot of people bring up Sony's poor marketing job. What about the game itself? The number of online users has dropped quite a bit since launch. Maybe the game is just too hardcore to be a system seller? Maybe for the average gamer (not GAF gamer), it's a lot harder to pick up than the casual friendly CoDs and Halos.

That's basically why that argument is so quickly brought up as it eliminates the possibility that maybe the poor sales were actually due to the game itself.

People regularly post on here that quality doesn't equal sales and point out numerous examples. The problem is this level of so called 'quality' is only judged by the gamers here on gaf. Gaf considers games like okami, god hand and the persona series to be AAA quality but i can pretty much guarantee that most gamers outside of forums like this would consider these to be pretty much garbage.

So while i and others on gaf may really enjoy killzone 2 other gamers may not have any interest in it.

 

[Opiate]

You may be right. It'd be the same reason there aren't more Zelda clones. Look at Okami or Beyond Good and Evil and their sales impact.

Consider Gran Turismo, Forza, and the numerous other Racing Sims (many of which are on PC and basically don't exist on these boards). Despite many of these racing sims getting similar reviews to GT, GT continues to outsell all of them by several orders of magnitude. Consider MMOs and WoW, which I expect to be particularly "Genre King" heavy due to their social-networking nature. Consider Zelda. Consider Mario. Consider Final Fantasy.

My theory is backed by very strong empirical evidence.

Shooters need to branch out into new genres.

Yes. Developers must look in to their souls and ask themselves: "Okay, how else can we blow shit up?"

 

[cakefoo]

I'm surprised it hasn't turned in to an offically sponsored Sony program.

This thread has hit an all-time low. Good work.

 

[TheGreatDave]

I'm not entriely sure it isn't.

Is there a Sony employee that can Killzone my avatar?

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

You really hate Killzone don't you.

I actually hate nearly all FPS games. I start playing them and spend most of my time spinning in angry little circles or getting stuck behind crates before getting shot by someone or fragged by a random grenade.

I'm just pointing out that given its budget and prominence in Sony marketing, Killzone 2 didn't perform to expectations. Don't take it personally.

 

[SSM25]

One month and two days during which it was still outsold by a console RTS

To be fair even a date simulator with the name HALO on the cover could outsold anything.

 

[Arpharmd B]

GAF != real world, what good is it if there are barely any commercials for the game? Just compare the advertising of Killzone 2 to that of Gears or Halo 3.

I don't think TV ads had that much to do with Gears or Halo success. Certainly helps, no doubt, but you don't sell 4 and 8 million copies because you had a good commercial.

Killzone had everything going for it. Tons of hype, decent advertising (am I the only one who saw the commercials?), great reviews, and a userbase that doesn't have it's own "Halo", and a userbase that is about what 360's was when Bioshock dropped.

And you can't tell me Bioshock had better buzz, reviews, or advertising than Killzone. I'm personally baffled by the sales. Again, not horrible but if you think about Bioshock it kind of puts things into perspective.

 

[TheGreatDave]

To be fair even a date simulator with the name HALO on the cover could outsold anything.

Halo Zunes.

 

[RSTEIN]

GAF != real world, what good is it if there are barely any commercials for the game? Just compare the advertising of Killzone 2 to that of Gears or Halo 3.

Well, for me personally (Toronto) I saw more advertising for Killzone 2 than I've seen for any other PS3 game. In fact, I would say the advertising for Killzone 2 was equal to the advertising of all previous PS3 games combined. I saw the television commercial tons. Virtually every single bus stop in my area was covered in with the Killzone 2 poster (which were taken down after residents complained they were too violent). I would say I saw the Gears 2 ad about the same as Killzone but I saw way more print/billboards for Killzone.

Sony did a good job with quantity (i.e. plastering the bus stops and playing the television spot over and over) but for some reason they fail to generate the buzz that Microsoft does. Microsoft has really done an incredible job of exciting people... there's an energy/intangible quality to what they're doing. They have the touch this gen. Sony can't seem to click with its own user base and potential customers. Their big titles sell adequately, but they can't find the spark.

 

[Kenka]

Hey, this thread is less slow than last month :lol

 

[MoogPaul]

Did a top 20 get released?

 

[Zachack]

I'm surprised it hasn't turned in to an offically sponsored Sony program.

"Sony plans to announce their newest Home room, Killzone 2 NeoGAF!" The best part is that it is both faster to enter than a normal Home room and still provides the experience of waiting in line to play via 500 errors.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Hey, this thread is less slow than last month :lol

This was the reckoning thread for Killzone 2.

On a serious note it really was. The next few npds will be relatively boring probably until the fall. This is the NPD though where we see whether all the Killzone hype produced something special or just another relative hit. So far the evidence supports just another hit.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

I think the average players are gravitating back to both World at War and Modern Warfare where there are still large stable player bases.

I also think the lack of a plain vanilla deathmatch/team deathmatch mode is hurting it as well. Not everybody wants to play objective based games all the time, and some people just flat out refuse to play anything that isn't just killing the other team.

Don't the objectives change mid game? That sounded like a cool idea to me but I wonder if a lot of players don't like to mix up game types.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Damn. KillZone 2 is officially an early-sales flop. Half the sales of a lightly-marketed, average game in Halo Wars? 1/3 the sales of the 360 version of RE? Maybe KZ2 sales will pick up over time...but this does not bode well.

If I were a developer, I'd sit up and take note. These sales are horrendous for such a big-budget strongly marketed (in March) title. If this is how the consumer base for the PS3 responds to what will probably be Sony's best first-party shooter this generation, why would any developer want to make an exclusive shooter for the platform?

Especially in these economic times. The 360 seems to be the much safer bet. I feel like this ongiong trend will directly affect the quality of future PS3 releases.

 

[Arpharmd B]

Sony did a good job with quantity (i.e. plastering the bus stops and playing the television spot over and over) but for some reason they fail to generate the buzz that Microsoft does. Microsoft has really done an incredible job of exciting people... there's an energy/intangible quality to what they're doing. They have the touch this gen. Sony can't seem to click with its own user base and potential customers. Their big titles sell adequately, but they can't find the spark.

That's a good point.

I haven't played Killzone, but to bring up games that had that "spark", Gears and Bioshock certainly come to mind. It's not just hype though, those games are fucking amazing on their own. People saying the number of players on Killzone is dropping could just mean it didn't have that.

I'm not saying one way or the other, because I haven't played it, I'm just speculating. Maybe to the non-GAF crowd the game isn't getting the word of mouth buzz because it's not for everyone?

 

[Spider_Jerusalem]

Shooters need to branch out into new genres.

They already did. Do you remember that little game that sells like hotcakes and almost every modern shooter is emulating buy putting a cover system in their gameplay? And no, I'm not talking Kill.switch :lol

 

[Big-E]

How does one thread bother so many people. How is anything in the Killzone thread any different than any other official game thread on GAF? Every official game thread is filled with chatter, its what happens. I fail to see how the Killzone thread gets singled out.

 

[Regulus Tera]

ITT: GAF forgets Wii and DS games' tendency of selling over a long period of time.

I am deeply concerned for Muramasa...

I don't see why you are expecting outstanding numbers for a 2D Vanillaware game.

 

[Arpharmd B]

Private Hoffman should have been un-banned just for this one day. After all, this was his Day of Reckoning.

 

[TheGreatDave]

How does one thread bother so many people. How is anything in the Killzone thread any different than any other official game thread on GAF? Every official game thread is filled with chatter, its what happens. I fail to see how the Killzone thread gets singled out.

Because it's a sequel to a hype thread, where people sat and wanked over the game for months. I'm sure Killzone 2 is a good game, but my view of it is forever tainted by the GAF "hype thread" clan plastering Killzone iconography all over their avatars and welcoming it like the second coming.

 

[Stoney Mason]

How does one thread bother so many people. How is anything in the Killzone thread any different than any other official game thread on GAF? Every official game thread is filled with chatter, its what happens. I fail to see how the Killzone thread gets singled out.

I have nothing against the Killzone thread. In fact I'm happy it exists so people don't feel the need to spam every other thread out there like they were doing before with Killzone related baggage. Most people were just pointing out that it being a very popular thread doesn't relate to sales and more relates to a post happy group of people.

 

[Lightning]

Because it's a sequel to a hype thread, where people sat and wanked over the game for months. I'm sure Killzone 2 is a good game, but my view of it is forever tainted by the GAF "hype thread" clan plastering Killzone iconography all over their avatars and welcoming it like the second coming.

MGS4 was worse for the hype, imo.

 

[bafflewaffle]

Resistance Retribution did under 55k ? I just picked up my copy yesterday but haven't opened it yet.

once its opened, sales data auto transmits to npd via special sales gases embeded in the plastic, released by glue in the seal. gases travel far to anita fraziers nose, then to brain, and she tallys a 1 on her big list

 

[TheGreatDave]

MGS4 was worse for the hype, imo.

MGS is a great franchise, one that deserved excitement based on it's past quality. Killzone always seemed forced, and like people were trying to prove its quality. But I'll quit this thread for a bit in case I say something evil.

 

[Stoney Mason]

MGS4 was worse for the hype, imo.

I disagree. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I've only been posting here since 2006 but no group at its peak imo was as annoying or disruptive as the worst of the Killzone 2 brigade. There is a reason that thread has so many posts and so many views and its been in full effect for a long time here on GAF. I've never seen so many threads derailed by one game before.

 

[Grecco]

MGS4 was worse for the hype, imo.

I dont remember MGS4 gif spams on unrelated threads like how people would post KZ gifs...

 

[Fredescu]

My theory is backed by very strong empirical evidence.

Have you read this? http://lostgarden.com/2005/05/game-genre-lifecycle-part-i.html

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

So what are we looking at here? Over 2 million worldwide for RE5? No wonder Capcom can afford to fund a MvC2 port.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Consider Gran Turismo, Forza, and the numerous other Racing Sims (many of which are on PC and basically don't exist on these boards). Despite many of these racing sims getting similar reviews to GT, GT continues to outsell all of them by several orders of magnitude. Consider MMOs and WoW, which I expect to be particularly "Genre King" heavy due to their social-networking nature. Consider Zelda. Consider Mario. Consider Final Fantasy.

My theory is backed by very strong empirical evidence.

I guess this raises the question of how much room there is for the 'genre kings'. Is the FPS market only big enough to support 2 'genre kings' especially when halo will only come out every 2-3 years and is exclusive to 360? Does CoD have that big of a stranglehold over the market.

Personally i don't believe that to be the case.

 

[Arpharmd B]

So what are we looking at here? Over 2 million worldwide for RE5? No wonder Capcom can afford to fund a MvC2 port.

It's at over 2 million for just JPN+USA. WW is probably closer to at least 3, possible 4. And the game has been out for a month.

I would expect it to be the most successful RE game ever. Which is awesome, as a RE fan, awesome because 5 is fucking amazing and deserves it all and awesome because I remember reading people saying how "RE isn't the franchise it once was" and shit to that effect a while back.

 

[boiled goose]

One of the worse NPD threads in a while...

People expecting Halo number from killzone where obviously expecting too much. The game is doing fine realistically. The problem is the game was overhyped, possibly even by sony. It is a great FPS, but it did not really do anything super duper amazingly except graphics on consoles. 92 on metacritic is great, but not game of the generation or anything. Also, Halo is an established franchise halo 1, halo 2 and halo 3 below its belt... kilzone 2 has... killzone 1, which was poorly recieved. It should have had another name... mayble a subtitle instead of 2.

resistance retribution 55k is not great, but it does show you that there are maybe some differences in the psp and ps3 audiences. psp is not known to be a software monster anyways and R2 did not light the world on fire last fall. dont know what expectations were.

Madworld. Below my expectations of 100-150k for the month. it should keep selling for a little bit. let's see if it can stay in shelves before calling it a bomb.

chinatown wars. strangely low initial numbers, but not a problem. this will continue to sell. dont know why ppl are calling it a bomb so quickly....

RE5 selling too well for my comfort.... RE is now an action game forever

people asking for China town wars and Madworld on XBLA and PSN? this is the reason the games did not sell more initially. dont blame others for not buying it when you probably didnt. ask yourself whny you havent picked up the game yourself and you will answer the question of why it is not selling faster.

 

[MWS Natural]

This trend of blaming sales purely on advertising or lack there of is kinda annoying. As soon as a big game sells below expectations e.g. uncharted, killzone 2, LBP etc immediately the advertising push is blamed. It had nothing to do with the console it's on or the general interest of the consumer, it was all because of the advertising. Maybe general PS3 owners just aren't as interested in these titles as the posters on gaf.

I have absolutely no doubts that had killzone 2 been released on the 360 with the same advertising it would of cleared 1 million for certain in the first month.

Also it is kind of interesting seeing these incredible numbers being done by a console RTS are being written off as solely due to the 'halo' brand name.
.

KZ2 + XBL + controller = DREAM. I would have definitely bought the game instead of renting it.

 

[Paznos]

once its opened, sales data auto transmits to npd via special sales gases embeded in the plastic, released by glue in the seal. gases travel far to anita fraziers nose, then to brain, and she tallys a 1 on her big list

:lol

 

[Lightning]

I disagree. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I've only been posting here since 2006 but no group at its peak imo was as annoying or disruptive as the worst of the Killzone 2 brigade. There is a reason that thread has so many posts and so many views and its been in full effect for a long time here on GAF. I've never seen so many threads derailed by one game before.

I blame graphic whore hype for most of that, as from what I read of KZ2 posts (I skipped most of them, not a member of the KZ2 fanclub) it was mostly graphics praise that KZ2 was getting.

Graphic whores in general are fucking annoying.

 

[AranhaHunter]

One of the worse NPD threads in a while...

People expecting Halo number from killzone where obviously expecting too much. The game is doing fine realistically. The problem is the game was overhyped, possibly even by sony. It is a great FPS, but it did not really do anything super duper amazingly except graphics on consoles. 92 on metacritic is great, but not game of the generation or anything. Also, Halo is an established franchise halo 1, halo 2 and halo 3 below its belt... kilzone 2 has... killzone 1, which was poorly recieved. It should have had another name... mayble a subtitle instead of 2.

Agreed. Wasn't Killzone 1 better received in EU? I'm not sure, but Killzone 2 should, ideally, do better in EU than in NA.

 

[Chumly]

MGS4 was worse for the hype, imo.

Not even close. MGS4 didnt have the gif spams that Killzone had. I mean every single thread you could think of was infested by them. PC,360, even random Wii threads had crazies bringing them in.

 

[Yes Boss!]

Dang, I was really hoping for a GTA sequel on the DS. Oh well.

Wait, are you serious? How do you know what the expectations were, the cost of the production, and what sold in Europe? I'd likely wager that a sequel is already in the works and coming in 2010.

 

[Struct09]

Everyone who owns a DS but didn't buy GTA:CW - I'm going to come and kick your puppy.

Spoiler

brb, have a few million puppies to go kick

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

I honestly think its just the marketing and the demographic of the userbase. Killzone 2 is an amazing game. If it came out for the 360 and Microsoft pushed it as hard as their other big games then it would have sold a shit load more. Microsoft is just better at marketing to the hardcore audience.

Yeah they are definitely the best at it. I remember when Sony's marketing during the PS2 era was pretty inventive to bad that's not the case anymore.

Because it's a sequel to a hype thread, where people sat and wanked over the game for months. I'm sure Killzone 2 is a good game, but my view of it is forever tainted by the GAF "hype thread" clan plastering Killzone iconography all over their avatars and welcoming it like the second coming.

I think a big part of it was the pre-rendered trailer. Whether you thought Sony could pull it off or couldn't it became a huge point of contention early on with people. When it was finally revealed and looked way better than anyone was expecting well at that point people just started riding the hype wave.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I blame graphic whore hype for most of that, as from what I read of KZ2 posts (I skipped most of them, not a member of the KZ2 fanclub) it was mostly graphics praise that KZ2 was getting.

Graphic whores in general are fucking annoying.

Part of it was the pre-rendered video from way back when.
Part of it was it was on the frontlines of the graphics war between the PS3 & the 360 in general.
Part of it was it was on the frontlines of the war between Gears and Halo and the PS3 having its own showcase fps.


All that sort of created a perfect storm for fanboy wars.

 

[MWS Natural]

Surprised at the lack of "Halo Killer" jokes in this thread.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I have no idea how much it might have affected them, but I'm thinking Killzone 2 demo did more bad than good to sales.

Demo made me cancel my pre-order and just play a copy my friend had bought when he was done with it instead.