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[foxbeldin]

Wait why is everyone shocked at the PS4/XBO numbers? I thought the PS4 has been outselling it consistently since launch, hasn't it? Or was there any reason to suspect that the XBO would be a bit hit in March?

Have you s...

well you know...

 

[FDC1]

Wait why is everyone shocked at the PS4/XBO numbers? I thought the PS4 has been outselling it consistently since launch, hasn't it? Or was there any reason to suspect that the XBO would be a bit hit in March?

There was that small indie game called Titanfall. Have you seen it?

 

[Mass Effect]

i want this

Quick, everyone tweet this to Shu and Boyes!

 

[Ludicrous Speed]

they get way more revenue when those consoles are in people's homes.

there's no other way to look at it. it doesn't matter if it gets sold to retailers. why? retailers carry every product imaginable. that's like saying one brand is selling more than the other but no worries since both are being bought by the retailers to be put on their shelves. the more popular brand gets to also sell more merchandise related to the brand. in this case, more ps4 cameras will be bought. more ps+ subs will be made. more netflix and hbo go customers. those translate into meaningful business and way more revenue than bought consoles sitting on shelves.

There absolutely is another way to look at it: the way I described.

Obviously they want to sell through to consumers so they consumers will purchase games, accessories, etc, but it is a fact that they get the revenue when they sell to the retailer, not when the retailer sells to the consumer.

 

[DrkSage]

Wait why is everyone shocked at the PS4/XBO numbers? I thought the PS4 has been outselling it consistently since launch, hasn't it? Or was there any reason to suspect that the XBO would be a bit hit in March?

Edit: Youngblood explained it better

 

[addik]

I think Kingdom Hearts will have the same split as Final Fantasy, if not more skewed in Playstation's favor. That fanbase is all Sony and Nintendo. I mean the Xbone version will do okay, but nothing spectacular.

And nope, PS4 had higher average weekly sales for March.

Feb: ~67k per week
March: ~74.2k per week

Oh, that's interesting. It's probably safe to assume that the upward tick was caused by Infamous. So people who really were interested with Titanfall had probably bought the consoles before then.

And yes, I have to admit, I found it strange that KH3 was announced for XBone. I would have assumed that they would announce the game for PS4 and WiiU. Oh well, I am curious to see how it will do with Xbox.

 

[Heshinsi]

I was thinking one thing.

Gran Turismo 6 sales are kinda dead (I think). If it was released on PS4 would be selling like hotcakes.

Dumbest decision Sony had made so far this gen. From GT5 launch in 2010, till the PS4 launch in 2013, they could have easily made a GT3 like GT6 game. Then again, I doubt anyone expected last gen software and hardware sales to free fall the way they have.

 

[Feorax]

At 720p I'm sure it would be cheap to do a Bone port, but it's hardly worth bothering then. To extract maximum performance from it the port would become costly which is when the ROI becomes poor.

I don't think it will happen, but someone at SE should be looking at the detail of MGSV globally right now and realise that the Xbox One version holds under 15% market share for total sales with many PS3 owners yet to upgrade. I don't see the latter group migrating to Xbox One for FFXV, and they represent the next largest market.

MS may have to step in to ensure the release of Japanese games on the Bone by waiving their platform fee for SE/Konami/Capcom otherwise the ROI just won't be good enough.

You raise an interesting point, especially with Japanese studios.

It's been a while since a single platform was so successful and gamer oriented that it could be justified making games exclusive without explicitly paying for it to be so, such as it was with PS1 and PS2.

We're probably a way off this yet, but it's weird to think that this is a possibility in the next couple of years.

 

[InfiniteUnrest]

What exactly are people buying the PS4 for?

Really? People still troll like this?

Edit: If you're being serious, I apologize...

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Kingdom Hearts is on the Bone because KH sells BIG in NA and before the consoles released it was expected Xbox would dominate in that region.

Now that it's clear it won't and with the first Japanese title skewing heavily towards PS4 there should be a reassessment within SE and other Japanese pubs as to the extent of support they give the Bone. Franchises like Resident Evil and MGS make sense because they are action oriented, but RPGs from SE don't. Xbox doesn't even have exclusive Mistwalker titles this time to widen the userbase to include RPG buyers.

You raise an interesting point, especially with Japanese studios.

It's been a while since a single platform was so successful and gamer oriented that it could be justified making games exclusive without explicitly paying for it to be so, such as it was with PS1 and PS2.

We're probably a way off this yet, but it's weird to think that this is a possibility in the next couple of years.

That reason is why I think we're all set for a repeat of the PS2, at least when it comes to Japanese and other niche titles. A lot of the time it may not be worth the additional expense of porting.

 

[ShogunDarius]

Why bother? It would be a complete waste of money when they will get around 90% of sales anyway. If it goes PS4 exclusive it will be because the ROI for the Bone version is negative or very low, that's without taking into account Y2Kev's favourite, opportunity cost. The money SE put into making a Bone port could be better deployed elsewhere making Type-1 or the next Dissidia title so that can release sooner while the 3DS isn't completely dead. No need for Sony to pay any amount of money to tie up the exclusive, I believe that is why it didn't happen rather than SE declining any offers made by SCE.

do you really see that happening though? I cant see them cancelling it, I can see them cancelling KH3 if FF15 flops on XO though.

 

[Canis lupus]

PS4 sales will not slow down into summer:

-Watch Dogs exclusive marketing and bundle
-TLOU Remaster
-Destiny exclusive marketing, and likely bundles
-GTA V rumored, if real, probably exclusive marketing and bundles too like the PS3 version
-DriveClub possibly coming out before Fall
-E3 hype

System sellers right there.

 

[BruiserBear]

I find it amazing how quickly this industry changes.

Last time around, Nintendo makes the decision to go with cheaper, last-gen hardware and is rewarded greatly for it.

This time around, Nintendo makes the same decision to go with cheaper, last-gen hardware and the public greatly rejects the move.

The U launched $100 more expensive, and it didn't have Wii Sports. That game was a phenomenon for a couple years. IMO it is the single biggest factor in the success of that console. It kind of blows my mind Nintendo don't have a completely new sports game out for the U.

 

[Duxxy3]

So how long until Vita is removed from shelves?

 

[Sporran]

So how long until Vita is removed from shelves?

Not as quick as the Ps4 so it seems!

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Polygon's NPD coverage is....interesting.

"Xbox One's latest sales milestone follows an announcement from chief competitor Sony, who says it has sold more than 7 million PlayStation 4 consoles since launching in November 2013. A key distinction between the two sales numbers is that PS4 sales are reported as sold-through, or purchased by consumers, while Xbox One sales are reported as sold-in, or sold to retailers."

"Despite trailing PS4 by some 2 million units, Mehdi said global Xbox One sales are "outpacing Xbox 360 by more than 60 percent at the same point in time."


Clearly its not trailing by some 2m units...

Not even an idiot would fall for their spin.

 

[Devilgunman]

I was thinking one thing.

Gran Turismo 6 sales are kinda dead (I think). If it was released on PS4 would be selling like hotcakes.

Fucking dumb move by Sony. They probably didn't put it on PS4 because they didn't want it to be in a way of Driveclub but then Driveclub got delay indefinitely. Failed management on both Sony WWS and Driveclub teams imo.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Now that it's clear it won't and with the first Japanese title skewing heavily towards PS4 there should be a reassessment within SE and other Japanese pubs as to the extent of support they give the Bone. Franchises like Resident Evil and MGS make sense because they are action oriented, but RPGs from SE don't. Xbox doesn't even have exclusive Mistwalker titles this time to widen the userbase to include RPG buyers.

Maybe that's why they're so silent with both?

And this http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108618741&postcount=488

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Why bother? It would be a complete waste of money when they will get around 90% of sales anyway. If it goes PS4 exclusive it will be because the ROI for the Bone version is negative or very low, that's without taking into account Y2Kev's favourite, opportunity cost. The money SE put into making a Bone port could be better deployed elsewhere making Type-1 or the next Dissidia title so that can release sooner while the 3DS isn't completely dead. No need for Sony to pay any amount of money to tie up the exclusive, I believe that is why it didn't happen rather than SE declining any offers made by SCE.

I don't the money invested would be the primary issue. SE has a limited supply of human resources. They would be inclined to deploy those on more prospective projects than smple Bone ports unless they could cheaply outsource.

 

[SyaraSystem]

So how long until Vita is removed from shelves?

I do believe the Vita will live to see 2015 through. Beyond that, the view is murky. Japan's continued interest will be its lifeline.
The fact that the system sells three-times over in one week in Japan what it does in a month in the US is a pretty jarring disparity. Then again, JP devs are feeding the platform a ton of retail content.

 

[raven777]

MGSV: GZ =278k, PS4 ~ 54%, XBO ~ 20% (both combined 204k), PS3 ~ 19%

This result throws into question the release of FFXV on the Bone. FF skews even more heavily to PlayStation and on 6m sales with 2m in Japan, the best result for Xbox will be 500-700k sales for FFXV. I don't see that giving SE a decent ROI. If Japanese/PlayStation oriented franchises don't see an improvement on the Bone I could see the ports being cancelled unless MS waive their platform fee and tweak the ROI figure for SE.

Hopefully it also means that Konami will can the last gen versions of TPP and go all in for next gen. By the time it releases the ~26% of last gen purchases will be significantly lower. Full fat next gen please KojiPro!

considering that in Japan PS3 version sold more than PS4 version, I can't really see them canning PS3/X360 version of TPP.

 

[EmptySpace]

There absolutely is another way to look at it: the way I described.

Obviously they want to sell through to consumers so they consumers will purchase games, accessories, etc, but it is a fact that they get the revenue when they sell to the retailer, not when the retailer sells to the consumer.

then there's no point in differentiating. tide and some unknown cloth detergent are both doing fine since both gets bought by walmart, right? might as well say every brand for a product that's on shelves is profitable.

 

[m@cross]

There absolutely is another way to look at it: the way I described.

Obviously they want to sell through to consumers so they consumers will purchase games, accessories, etc, but it is a fact that they get the revenue when they sell to the retailer, not when the retailer sells to the consumer.

might want to try a basic economics course to understand why what you just said is moronic, or maybe this will help?

XB1: Fuck em, they bought em it is their problem to sell them to people now!

XB2: Umm sir, non of the retailers want the warehouse stock we have, they are saying no one is buying them.

XB1: Yah but we got the money, muhahaha.

XB2: But sir.. all that money is now sitting in the new stock no one is accepting because their shelves are full.

 

[pieatorium]

Now that it's clear it won't and with the first Japanese title skewing heavily towards PS4 there should be a reassessment within SE and other Japanese pubs as to the extent of support they give the Bone. Franchises like Resident Evil and MGS make sense because they are action oriented, but RPGs from SE don't. Xbox doesn't even have exclusive Mistwalker titles this time to widen the userbase to include RPG buyers.

]I] think it will be interesting when TES/fallout, mass effect ect start showing up whether these games skew heavily to xbox or not since traditionally its had a much stronger association with wrpg

 

[bill0527]

Wow, I'm late to this thread.

PS4 looking good, I'm not sure what everyone is playing exactly, but this year should pick up in 6 months.

I picked up an XBone a few weeks ago because the deals floating around are pretty good.

I'm bored to death of my PS4. Nothing decent coming til Fall (not interested in TLoU, played it on PS3). System updates and enhancements have been non existant. I really don't know what everyone's playing on it. Infamous I guess, but not everyone's a fan of the Infamous franchise. I don't think I've turned my PS4 on since Mid February.

I bought the Xbox out of boredom and I wanted to try some of the exclusives like Killer Instinct, DR3, and Forza. I realize after I get through these Xbox exclusives its going to be in the same boat as PS4, nothing new coming until Fall.

I don't know...maybe I should have just upgraded my PC and let that carry me through this Spring and summer drought coming for both systems.

 

[Dragon]

What exactly are people buying the PS4 for?

To not play games, like people do on Steam .

I picked up an XBone a few weeks ago because the deals floating around are pretty good.

I'm bored to death of my PS4. Nothing decent coming til Fall (not interested in TLoU, played it on PS3). System updates and enhancements have been non existant. I really don't know what everyone's playing on it. Infamous I guess, but not everyone's a fan of the Infamous franchise. I don't think I've turned my PS4 on since Mid February.

I bought the Xbox out of boredom and I wanted to try some of the exclusives like Killer Instinct, DR3, and Forza. I realize after I get through these Xbox exclusives its going to be in the same boat as PS4, nothing new coming until Fall.

I don't know...maybe I should have just upgraded my PC and let that carry me through this Spring and summer drought coming for both systems.

If you don't play third party games nor downloadable games, what are you doing?

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

So how long until Vita is removed from shelves?

I don't see Sony ditching it (their PS4 integration and 2000 redesign being reasons), but if we're talking doomsday, six months at the least, probably early 2015.

I'm skeptical that these numbers are due to low stock, though that may be a factor of many. But if Sony doesn't want to support the system, the memory wipe of the system would begin fairly soon and culminate in an outright removal next year.

I'm actually shocked that the PSP is still around, so Sony's not quick to axe anything.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Fucking dumb move by Sony. They probably didn't put it on PS4 because they didn't want it to be in a way of Driveclub but then Driveclub got delay indefinitely. Failed management on both Sony WWS and Driveclub teams imo.

GT6 was probably supposed to ship in 2012. It was late enough as it was without trying to move it to PS4. That would have probably delayed it into 2015.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Why bother? It would be a complete waste of money when they will get around 90% of sales anyway. If it goes PS4 exclusive it will be because the ROI for the Bone version is negative or very low, that's without taking into account Y2Kev's favourite, opportunity cost. The money SE put into making a Bone port could be better deployed elsewhere making Type-1 or the next Dissidia title so that can release sooner while the 3DS isn't completely dead. No need for Sony to pay any amount of money to tie up the exclusive, I believe that is why it didn't happen rather than SE declining any offers made by SCE.

Usually, when we talk about opportunity costs in the context of porting titles, it's been in the context of questions like "does it make sense to port this title over to the Wii U that we expect to sell 10 - 20 thousand copies?" Your own estimation that FFXV could sell 500k - 700k on the One makes this conversation about whether or not it makes sense to bother at all seem rather silly.

 

[Ludicrous Speed]

then there's no point in differentiating. tide and some unknown cloth detergent are both doing fine since both gets bought by walmart, right? might as well say every brand for a product that's on shelves is profitable.

That's not how it works. If the product doesn't sell at retail then the retailer has the right to return the product to the manufacturer for a refund. Obviously the Xbox Ones will continue to sell, and it's not a good comparison to make to a commodity product like detergent.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

Gaf told me that PS4 sales would give Vita a new breathe of life.

wasnt Vita sales suppose to rise??

Gaf didn't tell you anything.

Someone on Gaf may have predicted that,though.

 

[Road]

The PSP dropped off pretty hard after 2008.

Jan-Feb-Mar

PSP 2008: 770k
3DS 2014: 405k

"PSP dropped off pretty hard after 2008."

PSP 2009: 540k
3DS 2014: 405k

"after 2008"

PSP 2010: 353k
3DS 2014: 405k

Told you so!

And 3DS sales are gonna be the same in 2015 and 2016, so it's guaranteed it'll comfortably outsell the PSP.

Glad we reached an agreement.

US installed base after 37 months:

GBA: 21.55m
GBC: 16.80m
NDS: 15.08m
3DS: 11.94m
PSP: 11.26m


On the other side of the ring.

PSP final total is about 20.2 million. A 90% drop on that equals 2.02 million.

Vita is at 1.77 million, 250k away, selling 10k per month. Sounds like an achievable goal. You can do it, Sony.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

The Wii is a bit of an anomaly, and analyzing what worked WELL and why its fortunes reversed and sales collapsed is a subject for its own thread.

I don't think it's really that complicated. The Wii was built for a 4/5-year gen, not an 8-year gen. Maybe you can even say the same for 360, looking at the shift in its scene around 2010. But back to the Wii...

If you take that into account, its drop was actually not so odd. It just appeared much worst than it should've because Nintendo had NOTHING there for those two years. Had it been a normal-length gen the drop-off would have been a footnote and Sony would be having a much tougher time right now.

Yeah, still arguing last-gen's abnormal length is what really helped the PS3.

 

[Ridley327]

Tropical freeze sales can't be that bad...right

As I mentioned, it's not actually down that much from February, which Nintendo put at 130k between retail and digital. I'm not sure what the true breakdown between both were, and I can't seem to find any indication if it was revealed in the last NPD thread, but the game has legs, surprisingly enough.

Taken on their own, they're definitely not great numbers, but it's not doing terrible for itself. It does lead more credence to the idea that Nintendo has created a very toxic culture on the Wii U, where it can't even engage the diehards enough to buy sure things like SM3DW in great numbers, and that's something that they desperately need to fix really quick here. There seems to be a lot of positive hype for Mario Kart 8, both from guys like us and from the press, and the Smash Direct was well received, but they need to be doing that stuff for everything going forward, and not just announcing something out of the blue and going "Ehh? Ehhhhh?" while it's looking back-and-forth between the game and a confused group of customers.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Usually, when we talk about opportunity costs in the context of porting titles, it's been in the context of questions like "does it make sense to port this title over to the Wii U that we expect to sell 10 - 20 thousand copies?" Your own estimation that FFXV could sell 500k - 700k on the One makes this conversation about whether or not it makes sense to bother at all seem rather silly.

Making a competent port on the Xbox seems a lot less trivial, especially for a graphically intense game like FFXV. I said it above, phoning in a 720p port would not be difficult, but optimising the title to extract maximum performance would be costly. For the former I don't think they would get to half of my sales estimate, but it would be marginally profitable, for the latter profitability would not be guaranteed.

The opportunity cost is going to be not making a 3DS game or not making FFXII-HD until it's too late. Both of those projects are guaranteed to have a better ROI than FFXV on the Bone.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Maybe that's why they're so silent with both?

And this http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108618741&postcount=488

This wouldn't surprise me if true. FF sales are higher on PS platform than in Xbox in relative terms, PS4 will clearly dominate the generation in absolute terms and in Japan, the primary FF market, Xbone is dead. They could have asked for a sweetener to finish the dral and Sony was OK with it. They can get a bunch of Japan centric games for cheap because of their current position.

 

[theprodigy]

That's the thing, american Vita sales are so bad they could lag behind way smaller market ones. From this topic,

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=2

Vita sold around 150k in UK in 2013. Let's say it's 2k a week in non-holiday season.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=786018

Vita sold around 70k in France in 2013. Let's say it's 1k a week in non-holiday season.

We know too Vita sales were on the rise in Europe after PS4 release:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=99148295

We know Football Manager and FFX sold well by Vita standards in Europe.

So yeah, UK is definitively a bigger market for Vita this days than US and countries like France, Germany, Spain must be pretty close. Of course, we can hope things will go back to normal after Vita 2000 release.

France is 120k, but even then that's 270k for UK+France
also your UK link is busted

 

[schuelma]

Taken on their own, they're definitely not great numbers, but it's not doing terrible for itself. It does lead more credence to the idea that Nintendo has created a very toxic culture on the Wii U, where it can't even engage the diehards enough to buy sure things like SM3DW in great numbers, and that's something that they desperately need to fix really quick here. There seems to be a lot of positive hype for Mario Kart 8, both from guys like us and from the press, and the Smash Direct was well received, but they need to be doing that stuff for everything going forward, and not just announcing something out of the blue and going "Ehh? Ehhhhh?" while it's looking back-and-forth between the game and a confused group of customers.

As others have said, I think a big problem is its just platformer overload on the system right now.

 

[Y2Kev]

If Square cancels FFXV for Xsuxb0ne then they can code it to the medal for PS4 (gold medal) and it will probably sell even more copies. Definitely more than the 50k or so they'd sell on Titanflopbox. I don't see why you are arguing.

 

[Canis lupus]

-Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD: 208K [Note: Some well known speculators have speculated this may only be the PS3 version.]

Didn't the creamsugar say it was 1 platform only?

 

[mattp]

I absolutely love how people seem to ignore the slow ass start of the Playstation 1 back in the day...what a failure of a console that was, right? Hahaha

comparing 1995 console sales to 2014 consoles sales might as well be apples to oranges
the audience for games is SOOOO much bigger, now

 

[Seik]

Glad to see FFX-FFX-2 doing well. Maybe Square will understand something outta this and Bravely Default's sales.

Spoiler

Probably not.

 

[DieH@rd]

PS4 sales will not slow down into summer:

-Watch Dogs exclusive marketing and bundle
-TLOU Remaster
-Destiny exclusive marketing, and likely bundles
-GTA V rumored, if real, probably exclusive marketing and bundles too like the PS3 version
-DriveClub possibly coming out before Fall
-E3 hype

System sellers right there.

Elder Scrolls Online is also a notable game that can attract a lot of RPG/MMO players, as well as two nice summer crossgen games from Bethesda - Wolfenstein and Evil Within. These 3 games will not be large system sellers, but it will give everyone something good to play.

 

[ReBurn]

From what I've seen here at retail in Edmonton, and from what others are observing elsewhere, the Vita is in short supply. More than likely a result of the wait for the 2000 model. But as others have said, what kinda strategy is it to stop supplying your current model, and then wait a month to release the new one?

It's not exactly unprecedented to let the channel run low when changing hardware models. Sony did it in the early months of PS3 as they tried to figure out how to sell the thing, regularly changing features and HDD sizes.

When I was looking for a Vita a few weeks ago I couldn't find one new at retail, and online prices for new were all above MSRP. So I bought used.

 

[Duxxy3]

The two systems are just about even in the states, which is good for both companies right now. The difference is in Europe, where Microsoft is getting their ass handed to them. Eventually sales will pick up in Japan with actual Japanese PS4 games, and that just makes thing worse.

Microsoft needs to go hard after the European market. Get Kinect out of the box, dump the TV crap that doesn't even work in those countries, get the price below the PS4, and find a way to associate Fifa with Xbox instead of Sony. The "'murica box" needs to die.

 

[jcm]

Excel fail. Updating.

 

[sörine]

The opportunity cost is going to be not making a 3DS game or not making FFXII-HD until it's too late. Both of those projects are guaranteed to have a better ROI than FFXV on the Bone.

After a decade of on-again off-again R&D and a generational platform shift, I'd suggest both those prospects would have a better ROI than FFXV period.

 

[kenji_sama]

Sony will not waste their money for FFXV exclusivity but SE can approach Sony to handle FFXV marketing. FFXIII marketing in Japan was absolutely huge.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Making a competent port on the Xbox seems a lot less trivial, especially for a graphically intense game like FFXV. I said it above, phoning in a 720p port would not be difficult, but optimising the title to extract maximum performance would be costly. For the former I don't think they would get to half of my sales estimate, but it would be marginally profitable, for the latter profitability would not be guaranteed.

You don't think a phoned in port that has the potential to sell 250,000 copies is worthwhile?

 

[Skenzin]

Good post and I agree with you. However, my main point was that thereseems to be more "hardcore Nintendo fans" in the US than anywhere else. I'd say that the difference compared to Europe, which is a comparable market in size, is pretty stark.

Sure, the Gamecube didn't sell well anywhere, but (over?) 50% of its sales were from NA. And I think it's pretty likely that even the OG Wii was a bigger phenomenon in the US than here in Europe. Aren't the Wii U sales pretty much nonexistent in EU? And in Japan the system is trailing behind the Vita. So it looks like that the same thing is happening with the Wii U.

Actually there's a very small nunber of Nintendo hardcore and large amount of Nintendo nostalgia. The nintendo hardcore falsely confuse the two into thinking their numbers much larger than they are. Add the Wii fad to the mix and you have a very confused hardcore fan base.