What an amazingly awesome NPD thread. Welcome back! :lol
And wow, it's finally happening. The competitive landscape in many industries often settles down into a duopoly, with two main market leaders followed by a distant third. It's taken a while for that to happen with this round of consoles, but now it seems that both Wii and 360 are beginning to leave a flagging PS3 behind.
In the beginning, Wii captured the imagination of the mass market while the two other consoles waged HD-peen battles to win a smaller hardcore audience.
Now, Microsoft has differentiated its platform with Kinect, a device that doesn't simply try to out-Wii the Wii, but imbues the 360 with its own kind of magic that's new and different and desirable. The result is, 360 is separating itself from the Special-Olympics slap-fest it had been fighting with Sony, and I expect it to enter a new phase of unprecedented growth for a Microsoft console (provided MS maintains a compelling stream of software, both for Kinect and core games).
PS3 appears to be in serious trouble now in America. As Steve Race, one-time president of Sony America, said of Trip Hawkins' 3DO platform just prior to the launch of the original PlayStation, "If it smells like dead fish, it's probably dead fish."
I've noticed a faint odor about the platform for a while, but with this NPD, I think I've got my first real whiff of something seriously bad.
That's the thing. Wii is the original "motion" machine. It owns that position in people's minds, so it's not going anywhere for a while. That's in part where Move fails and Kinect succeeds. Move is an expensive copycat while Kinect, like Wii before it, captures the imagination with something new. It's different enough to carve out its own space without cutting much into Nintendo's--something that's very hard to do to a market leader.