Vinci said:
I think Kinect will lose steam within 6 months, yes. I still do. These figures don't change that.
And since I've never felt Move would outsell Kinect, no, I'm still pretty sure that Kinect will be far more successful than Move in the long run.
Well, I based my predictions for the success of Kinect based on the success of the Wii. I will admit that like many people, I underestimated the appeal of the Wii at launch in North America (even though I thought it would do well in Japan), but after having played it for the first time, and seeing the reactions of people who didn't normally play games, I knew that it was going to be a breakout hit. Not because of Nintendo's traditional stable (Zelda was pretty big at launch, but it sold nearly as well on Gamecube), but because of games like Wii Sports and Wii Play.
Kinect (which I still haven't played) has had that same buzz about it ever since MS has let people go hands on with it. They spent the entire summer touring the country and putting beta versions of the software directly in consumers' hands. So while much of the press turned up their noses (as they did to the Wii) citing the lack of FPS/action games, and much of the tech crowd grumbled about hundredths of a second of lag, and internet forums posted every video of a single glitch or lengthy calibration as signs that MS was trying to sell us shit in a box,
hundreds of thousands of normal people were building up anticipation and word of mouth on Kinect.
And then, the product placement. Oprah, Ellen, Bieber concerts, Entourage cameo. All aimed at the same demographic. All driving sales before there was ever a 360 commercial with it on TV. The current ad campaign is peanuts. I doubt MS has even scratched the surface of that 500 million compared to what we'll see next year. If MS wants to maintain their current momentum, they're going to have to try to avoid software droughts. They'll need games at LEAST as good as Dance Central, Kinect Sports, and Your Shape to start showing up several times a month starting around February/March. I just don't see that being that huge of an obstacle. There isn't some magic pixie dust sprayed onto the products of Nintendo, Sega, Ubisoft, THQ, and Neversoft that made their Wii games multi-million sellers over the last few years.
YoungHav said:
But why does "year of the PS3" have to be about sales? Sony has arguably been putting out better software than MS since 2008.
In a sales thread, if you run off a list war, you'd best be talking about sales.
The problem I have with the constant "future prognostication" that people throw at the PS3 vs the other consoles is that
a) Lots of Sony's exclusive titles get delayed from their originally intended launch window
b) Not all of Sony's exclusive titles are flawless masterpieces worthy of being included on list of things to come in EVERY DAMN THREAD
c) Not all of Sony's exclusive titles are sales juggernauts, no matter how many thread views they get here
d) Nintendo and MS, this generation anyway, have a much more noted history of launching their AAA software within 9 months of announcement. Notably Left 4 Dead 2, Wii Fit & +, NSMB Wii, Forza 3, Gears 2, Fable 2, Fable 3, Banjo Nuts & Bolts, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Metroid: Other M, among others, were all launched the same year they were first shown playable. Comparing their upcoming software H2H in December of each year, as GAF is wont to do, disproportionately favors Sony year in and year out because they announce so much. How many years was GT5 on lists? MGS4? Killzone 2? Agent? LA Noire?
I mean throw $500M at anything and you should be able to pull off a decent launch.
As was so often pointed out,
Microsoft Kin cost them well over $500M, and it is
dead.