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[GnawtyDog]

So we just got TR numbers for the week in the UK thread. Anybody want to change their predictions for it for next months NPD?

What are the numbers?

Edit: NVM.

Still think it will chart in November. Not many high profile games out there to take a place on the Top 10, simple as that. People are underestimating the game to the point where 300k would look like a massive success (instead of a flop). Review thread redux.

 

[RexNovis]

Just Let Dance Die

I've got this feeling that times are holding me down...

Spoiler

God I am old

 

[Jarod McChicken]

They don't play it on PS4 either. Just like they don't play Disgaea, Tales or Dragon Quest on PS4 it seems.

NX can't come soon enough ! I can smell Disgaea 6 for NX doing 150K from here ( ͡ᵔ ͜ʖ ͡ᵔ )

 

[RexNovis]

So much this what terrible timing i fear for digimon cyber sleuth in February

You shut your mouth! Digimon is golden. GOLDEN I TELL YOU! ...... *sobs*

 

[Welfare]

Oh yeah, just remembered. Halo 5 did ~40% better than MCC.

T-That's good.

 

[hawk2025]

Oh yeah, just remembered. Halo 5 did ~40% better than MCC.

T-That's good.

November, though.

Halo 5 is bound to have longer legs because of November.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

What are the numbers?

Edit: NVM.

Still think it will chart in November. Not many high profile games out there to take a place on the Top 10, simple as that. People are underestimating the game to the point where 300k would look like a massive success (instead of a flop). Review thread redux.

Charting probably means around 600k. Doubt that.

 

[Rymuth]

I take back what I said. This thread's great. We've had meltdowns, the appearance of a new hero and then the return of an old one.

I usually prefer my NPD threads to start off with a bang but a slow-burner once in a while isn't necessarily a bad thing either.

 

[Pennywise83]

Poor numbers for DQH. As I said plenty of times, the mere fact of having a lot of jRPGs doesn't necessarily mean audience will be there - some platforms are just not good for some genre, no matter how much software houses are trying. PS4 userbase seems more inclined towards big AAA Western games, which is pretty expected and totally fine.

NA has a pretty good audience for jRPG and Japanese games though - SMTIV debuted at 75k, MH4U did what, 200k? PS3 had some good software sales as well. SQEX should hope in a breakthrough success of PS4 in JApan at this point.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Ahh yes, the PS1. So rampant was internet-based piracy back then.

Also, the DS piracy problem came into the later part of the its life-cycle. Your question would be valid only if the system was in perpetual piracy since launch, it was not and so time scales can account for the vast majority of its retail software.

DS wasn't unique no. PSP and later term Wii were also heavily pirated and similarly impacted. The systems you brought up though (360, PS3, 3DS) aren't even remotely comparable.

And piracy is worth mentioning when it has this sort of impact. The European DS software market started halving in 2008, US started in 2009. We didn't get a ton of localizations (SaGa 2-3, Ninokuni, Seventh Dragon, etc) from larger publishers precisely because of this. That's notable and unusual even for market leading platforms.

All these quotes about Piracy. Just tell me this guys.

If there as no piracy, what would have DQ sold on the DS? What kind of magical percentage increase can we expect for the series if there was no piracy? Sure you don't expect the numbers to double/triple.

Since we have the debut month numbers from Aquamarine.

DQ IV (Sep 2008): 34k
DQV (Feb 2009): 28k
DQ VI (Feb 2011): 46k
DQIX (July 2009): ~132k

In 2008, DQIV debuted to 34k followed by 28k for DQV and ~132k for DQIX. If the piracy factor was taken in account,it would be logical to assume DQVI should have opened lower than V/IV but instead it had a slightly better opening at 48k. So much for the so called piracy affecting DQ sales at tail-end of DS lifecycle.

The Witcher 3 is not a turn based game. Neither is Xenoblade Chronicles X. I'm referring to games like Pokemon, Bravely Default and Fire Emblem. DQ XI will also be a turn based game. Is there a turn based RPG that has sold well on the PS4?

Tales of Zestiria and DQH aren't turn-based either so I don't get the comparison. The only turn-based RPG that I remember getting released was an extremely niche Idol RPG called Omega Quintent by Idea Factory.

 

[hodayathink]

What are the numbers?

Edit: NVM.

Still think it will chart in November. Not many high profile games out there to take a place on the Top 10, simple as that. People are underestimating the game to the point where 300k would look like a massive success (instead of a flop). Review thread redux.

Don't forget that sales are going to push a lot of "newer" software up the charts for this month. For example Destiny:TTK is going to chart again, because it's probably going to be selling at most major retailers for about $40. I agree with CosmicQueso that Disney Infinity is going to chart again as well. Then the 3 sports games (NBA, Madden, and Fifa). That leaves 2 more spots. You could even get me to believe that Halo takes one of them if they discount it enough. But I don't see Tomb Raider selling enough to take the other.

 

[Sandfox]

So much this what terrible timing i fear for digimon cyber sleuth in February

We haven't been getting Digimon games in the west for a reason so we'll see. The newer games are at least targeted at an older audience so it'll be interesting to see if a good number of old fans return.

 

[Man God]

It's been awhile but I seem to remember SE printing too many copies of DQ IV and then too few of DQ V.

 

[Sandfox]

It's been awhile but I seem to remember SE printing too many copies of DQ IV and then too few of DQ V.

I remember DQV being annoyingly rare for a while.

 

[xehanort]

Poor numbers for DQH. As I said plenty of times, the mere fact of having a lot of jRPGs doesn't necessarily mean audience will be there - some platforms are just not good for some genre, no matter how much software houses are trying. PS4 userbase seems more inclined towards big AAA Western games, which is pretty expected and totally fine.

NA has a pretty good audience for jRPG and Japanese games though - SMTIV debuted at 75k, MH4U did what, 200k? PS3 had some good software sales as well. SQEX should hope in a breakthrough success of PS4 in JApan at this point.

Poor? From what I've seen, it's inline with DS DQ remakes and One Piece Warrior (IIRC) which are the closest thing we can compare this spinoff (not that I am saying these are good figures mind you).

I think it is unfair to judge the PS4 japanese sales based on DQ spinoff. And if we are comparing MH4U, we should compare that to Bloodbourne which maybe around 400-500k (someone has updated figure on this?) in NA.

D5 on the other hand is kind of sad. I love this series, I hope it did good digital which I kind of doubt

 

[Jigorath]

Poor numbers for DQH. As I said plenty of times, the mere fact of having a lot of jRPGs doesn't necessarily mean audience will be there - some platforms are just not good for some genre, no matter how much software houses are trying. PS4 userbase seems more inclined towards big AAA Western games, which is pretty expected and totally fine.

Explain Bloodborne's sales.

Also, Zestiria did well considering it's now multiplatform.

And do you expect Persona 5, FFXV, KH3, Dark Souls 3 to all bomb?

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Poor numbers for DQH. As I said plenty of times, the mere fact of having a lot of jRPGs doesn't necessarily mean audience will be there - some platforms are just not good for some genre, no matter how much software houses are trying. PS4 userbase seems more inclined towards big AAA Western games, which is pretty expected and totally fine.

NA has a pretty good audience for jRPG and Japanese games though - SMTIV debuted at 75k, MH4U did what, 200k? PS3 had some good software sales as well. SQEX should hope in a breakthrough success of PS4 in JApan at this point.

Putting aside the fact that DQ Heroes is not even a JRPG (comparing it with muso-like games is indeed better suited) the "lot of jRPGs" you're mentioning are most likely announced, but not out yet, right ? Things like Star Ocean V, FFXV, Kingdom Hearts III, DQXI or Persona 5 ? Because right now, I don't have the sensation PS4 is crawling under JRPG. I may have missed something, though.

 

[Tripon]

Bravely Default was published and marketed by Nintendo and Square Enix had nothing to do with its Western release. The game was a huge success for sure, but it was thanks to Nintendo, not Square Enix.

It sold 200k (digital+retail) in debut NPD month.

Square Enix picked the localization studio.

 

[StevieP]

I agree the PS2 library was good but PS1 library was just as good.
In fact i will say by the end of the gen the PS4 library will be just as good and have the same amount of variety as Ps1 and PS2 .



The PS4 is only 2 years old by end of this gen it was have just as much variety .

Pretty much zero chance of that. The market has changed, and that's not where the dollars are flowing

 

[Sandfox]

Explain Bloodborne's sales.

Also, Zestiria did well considering it's now multiplatform.

And do you expect Persona 5, FFXV, KH3, Dark Souls 3 to all bomb?

I don't think too many people consider Bloodborne and Dark Souls jrpgs.

 

[RexNovis]

Does anyone know what Tomb Raider reboots debut NPD sales were? If the decline mirrors the one in UK RoTR should sell roughly a third of the reboot's sales. Albeit it will likely be even less as UK in general is a bit more fond of Tomb Raider than the US is.

 

[crinale]

Yeah aside from Bloodborne (well it isn't classical JRPG either) JRPG heavy hitters hasn't hit West. As a matter of fact many (or all?) of them haven't even hit Japanese market yet. Next year will be quite interesting(TM).

As for DQH it seems sold decently on Asian market so there's that (though it's kinda OT because this is NPD thread).

 

[Jigorath]

I don't think too many people consider Bloodborne and Dark Souls jrpgs.

Is Monster Hunter not a JRPG? What about Kingdom Hearts? Or Ys?

Bloodborne is an action RPG developed in Japan that sold really well on PS4 in the West.

 

[xehanort]

I don't think too many people consider Bloodborne and Dark Souls jrpgs.

He mentioned MH4U though so it's all fair

 

[RexNovis]

I'm guessing Fallout 4 will break 3.5 million with bundles this month with the top 3 software charts being

1. CoD Black Ops 3 (XB1, PS4, 360, PS3) - the large amount of CoD bundle sales will likely ensure that XB1 is the leas selling platform for CoD but including bundles PS4 will come out on top.
   
   
2. Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC) - Bundles will skew this in favor of PS4 but it should be reallly close between the two even with bundles included
   
   
3. Battlefront (XB1, PS4, PC) - again bundles will skew this in favor of XB1 but counting bundles PS4 will have sold the most.

 

[Obliterator]

Does anyone know what Tomb Raider reboots debut NPD sales were? If the decline mirrors the one in UK RoTR should sell roughly a third of the reboot's sales. Albeit it will likely be even less as UK in general is a bit more fond of Tomb Raider than the US is.

It was a little over 600k I think.

I'm thinking 200kish for it. Which is literal bomba territory

 

[StormKing]

Tales of Zestiria and DQH aren't turn-based either so I don't get the comparison. The only turn-based RPG that I remember getting released was an extremely niche Idol RPG called Omega Quintent by Idea Factory.

Exactly the PS4 is not the home of Japanese turn based RPGs. The audience for those types of games is small in the west. Thus it possible for an NX version of DQ XI to sell more in the west than a PS4 version. It's not a ridiculous claim.

 

[OléGunner]

Halo5 bundle < Uncharted bundle

See this is just legit crazy. Even if Halo 5 bundle was more expensive it's staggering that it can't beat an Uncharted remaster bundle.

Does anyone know what Tomb Raider reboots debut NPD sales were? If the decline mirrors the one in UK RoTR should sell roughly a third of the reboot's sales. Albeit it will likely be even less as UK in general is a bit more fond of Tomb Raider than the US is.

About 640k I believe.

I just caught up on the UK thread and the RoTR sales are eye watering.

Would be shocked to see it debut to more than 200k in Nov NPD.

 

[kadotsu]

Exactly the PS4 is not the home of Japanese turn based RPGs. The audience for those types of games is small in the west. Thus it possible for an NX version of DQ XI to sell more in the west than a PS4 version. It's not a ridiculous claim.

Let's at least wait until the NX has sold more than nothing to declare it the home for anything.

 

[Jigorath]

Microsot making their Halo bundle $499 is one of the dumbest moves I've seen all year. Should have been $349 with just a pack in and normal console, $399 with a special redesigned console. Hell you can even throw in Tomb Raider as an extra pack in to sweeten the pot, it's not like that game is selling anything substantial on it's own.

 

[RexNovis]

It was a little over 600k I think.

I'm thinking 200kish for it. Which is literal bomba territory

So ya a third of 600k is 200k.... ouch.

See this is just legit crazy. Even if Halo 5 bundle was more expensive it's staggering that it can't beat an Uncharted remaster bundle.



About 640k I believe.

I just caught up on the UK thread and the RoTR sales are eye watering.

Would be shocked to see it debut to more than 200k in Nov NPD.

Ah so 640k ok then tat would mean a third would be ~215k .... well yea that doesnt bode well at all.

 

[Sandfox]

Is Monster Hunter not a JRPG? What about Kingdom Hearts? Or Ys?

Bloodborne is an action RPG developed in Japan that sold really well on PS4 in the West.

While I disagree with using that criteria to determine whether a game is a jrpg or not, Dark Souls and Bloodborne are not good examples anyways since no other rpgs coming out of Japan are borrowing that much from the west and likely appeal to vastly different audiences.

 

[Rion]

Exactly the PS4 is not the home of Japanese turn based RPGs. The audience for those types of games is small in the west. Thus it possible for an NX version of DQ XI to sell more in the west than a PS4 version. It's not a ridiculous claim.

There is only 1 notable Japanese turn based RPG on PS4 in the West. And your claim is ridiculous.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

DQH also didn't stir much excitement among either DQ fans or Musou fans.

Not sure what they expected, but it really shouldn't have been huge. It's not a very exciting game for either camp.

 

[Obliterator]

The new more solid number for TR in UK is < 56,700 which is actually larger a drop than the 1/3rd sold we thought. And UK is one of its strongest territories.

For sure gonna be a big talking point next NPD

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Pretty much zero chance of that. The market has changed, and that's not where the dollars are flowing

What has change so much in the market that makes the PS4 won't have the variety the PS2 have ?
Unless we not counting DD games .
Of course some genre\ games type going to be less on PS4 because they get replace by others .
For eg PS2 hardly had open world games while this gen going to be full of them .

EDIT Also i find it funny all of sudden certain games are now big sellers after we see there sales.

 

[RexNovis]

Holy shit Halo 5 dropped another 50% in UK week 3! That's after the 78% drop in week 2. Yeeeeeesh. That's not good at all.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Exactly the PS4 is not the home of Japanese turn based RPGs. The audience for those types of games is small in the west. Thus it possible for an NX version of DQ XI to sell more in the west than a PS4 version. It's not a ridiculous claim.

LOL.

I mean you are saying that the PS4 is not home of turn-based JRPGs while there hasn't even been that many retail releases of turn-based JRPGs.

We can start calling NX the home of turn-based JRPGs when it actually gets some announcements and manages to do better than the Wii U did in the West.

 

[Vena]

In 2008, DQIV debuted to 34k followed by 28k for DQV and ~132k for DQIX. If the piracy factor was taken in account,it would be logical to assume DQVI should have opened lower than V/IV but instead it had a slightly better opening at 48k. So much for the so called piracy affecting DQ sales at tail-end of DS lifecycle.

...It would not be logical. That isn't how logic actually works.

Logic would factor in the changes in install base*, the changes or lack thereof in marketing, and other factors. You cannot just compare numbers from random periods in time, under different circumstances (especially when a publisher change occurs along with marketing) and somehow come to the conclusion that one variable is somehow "so-called". Piracy most certainly stymied the performance of DQVI and DQIX, marketing and larger/maturing install bases to a degree also would have worked to offset difference in epochs for the DS's software performance. This, however, does not change the reality of how bad software retail was becoming for the platform (and the PSP) entirely due to piracy. (I provided you some choice resources one page back.)

If anything, given the growth of the title and its strong marketing push, logic would dictate that had the DS not been suffering from crippling piracy in the late 2000s to 2010s, DQIX would have performed better than it did because the ratio of salesopulation:marketing balance is totally out of whack. Unlike it predecessors, DQIX was a new title and pushed strongly by Nintendo (meaning, it also reached new eyes and ears on the back of Nintendo's label with different audiences unlike the previous entries. This is yet another convoluted factor in the overall story).

*The DS grew by ~20 million in the Americas from 2008 to 2011. The sales growth from DQIV to DQVI can be explained thusly even in the face of rampant piracy. The convolution of these things is impossible to separate. However, external details point to a market that was heavily impacted by piracy of software for the PSP/DS platforms. To then some how claim that piracy is "so-called" is to willfully choose to ignore reality.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Charting probably means around 600k. Doubt that.

Don't forget that sales are going to push a lot of "newer" software up the charts for this month. For example Destiny:TTK is going to chart again, because it's probably going to be selling at most major retailers for about $40. I agree with CosmicQueso that Disney Infinity is going to chart again as well. Then the 3 sports games (NBA, Madden, and Fifa). That leaves 2 more spots. You could even get me to believe that Halo takes one of them if they discount it enough. But I don't see Tomb Raider selling enough to take the other.

Valid points. We'll see.

 

[Obliterator]

Holy shit Halo 5 dropped another 50% in UK week 3! That's after the 78% drop in week 2. Yeeeeeesh. That's not good at all.

Its not even above 200k in the UK.

Serious.

Halo 3 did 370k in a week for comparison.

We've now had 3 huge underperformamces in a short amount of time. Halo, Assassin's Creed, and Tomb Raider

 

[gundamkyoukai]

If anything, given the growth of the title and its strong marketing push, logic would dictate that had the DS not been suffering from crippling piracy in the late 2000s to 2010s, DQIX would have performed better than it did because the ratio of salesopulation:marketing balance is totally out of whack. Unlike it predecessors, DQIX was a new title and pushed strongly by Nintendo (meaning, it also reached new eyes and ears on the back of Nintendo's label with different audiences unlike the previous entries. This is yet another convoluted factor in the overall story).

That is not so user base size does not mean a game is going to sell better .
Now i am not saying piracy did not effect things but it makes no sense going down that rabbit hole .

 

[DarkLordMalik]

...It would not be logical. That isn't how logic actually works.

Logic would factor in the changes in install base*, the changes or lack thereof in marketing, and other factors. You cannot just compare numbers from random periods in time, under different circumstances (especially when a publisher change occurs along with marketing) and somehow come to the conclusion that one variable is somehow "so-called". Piracy most certainly stymied the performance of DQVI and DQIX, marketing and larger/maturing install bases to a degree also would have worked to offset difference in epochs for the DS's software performance. This, however, does not change the reality of how bad software retail was becoming for the platform (and the PSP) entirely due to piracy. (I provided you some choice resources one page back.)

If anything, given the growth of the title and its strong marketing push, logic would dictate that had the DS not been suffering from crippling piracy in the late 2010s, DQIX would have performed better than it did because the ratio of salesopulation:marketing balance is totally out of whack. Unlike it predecessors, DQIX was a new title and pushed strongly by Nintendo.

*The DS grew by ~20 million in the Americas from 2008 to 2011. The sales growth from DQIV to DQVI can be explained thusly even in the face of rampant piracy. The convolution of these things is impossible to separate. However, external details point to a market that was heavily impacted by piracy of software for the PSP/DS platforms. To then some how claim that piracy is "so-called" is to willfully choose to ignore reality.

Again, a bigger install base doesn't mean an increase in sales for a series that is considered a "niche" in the West.

There is enough evidence to suggest that Dragon Quest as a series is just not comparable to some of the big hitters (Tales, FF, KH, Souls) even though it is one of the biggest franchise in Japan.

The reality is, Dragon Quest was never big. It had moderate success with two of its entries (VIII and IX) but that's all. Square Enix is also to blame here since they never actually tried to push the series in the West.

Dragon Quest Heroes did ~31k (retail) and was in Top 20 on US PSN digitally. You can try to spin it as a bomb or you can compare it to past games in the series and determine these sales are good enough. You can also say that the game selling this much despite lack of marketing and being a musou spin-off is impressive because Dragon Quest is a series that has been Nintendo exclusive for two generations now, yet it sold as much as the past entries despite being on a new platform.

 

[Jigorath]

While I disagree with using that criteria to determine whether a game is a jrpg or not, Dark Souls and Bloodborne are not good examples anyways since no other rpgs coming out of Japan are borrowing that much from the west and likely appeal to vastly different audiences.

Well, I don't know if we can discount these titles as JRPGs just because they take cues from Western games.

 

[Mpl90]

Yeah, I just can't see how people can underestimate DS's piracy later in its life. PSP software sales were killed by piracy, but DS was severly impacted as well, with software sales halving YOY. How's that not a factor?
360 wasn't nearly as impacted by piracy as DS/PSP/Wii. That's why, for example, you see Nintendo taking as many actions as possible with firmwares and such to prevent piracy to reach those levels.

 

[Vena]

That is not so user base size does not mean a game is going to sell better .
Now i am not saying piracy did not effect things but it makes no sense going down that rabbit hole .

Again, a bigger install base doesn't mean an increase in sales for a series that is considered a "niche" in the West.

A larger base increases probability of a sale. When we're talking a few thousand gained over tens of millions of growth... yes, it is relevant especially when talking about things with such minuscule numbers to begin with. The bigger issue is that the numbers are, outside of DQIX, all pathetic. A change of 20 million from 2008 to 2011 is enormous compared to a change of a few thousand.

There is enough evidence to suggest that Dragon Quest as a series is just not comparable to some of the big hitters (Tales, FF, KH, Souls) even though it is one of the biggest franchise in Japan.

DQIX under Nintendo outsold/sold par with many Tales releases.

Dragon Quest Heroes did ~31k (retail) and was in Top 20 on US PSN digitally. You can try to spin it as a bomb or you can compare it to past games in the series and determine these sales are good enough. You can also say that the game selling this much despite lack of marketing and being a musou spin-off is impressive because Dragon Quest is a series that has been Nintendo exclusive for two generations now, yet it sold as much as the past entries despite being on a new platform.

All I ever said on the subject was that it wasn't good. The fact that it performed on the level of DQIV-VI does not change the fact that the numbers then and now were not good, and after DQVI SE dropped the series in the West. That was all I stated on the matter.

It is not impressive. It is simply bad.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Okay i have hear of putting words in your mouth but not text LAMO .

 

[Vena]

Okay i have hear of putting words in your mouth but not text LAMO .

Whoops! Fixed that sorry.

 

[casiopao]

Again, a bigger install base doesn't mean an increase in sales for a series that is considered a "niche" in the West.

There is enough evidence to suggest that Dragon Quest as a series is just not comparable to some of the big hitters (Tales, FF, KH, Souls) even though it is one of the biggest franchise in Japan.

The reality is, Dragon Quest was never big. It had moderate success with two of its entries (VIII and IX) but that's all. Square Enix is also to blame here since they never actually tried to push the series in the West.

Dragon Quest Heroes did ~31k (retail) and was in Top 20 on US PSN digitally. You can try to spin it as a bomb or you can compare it to past games in the series and determine these sales are good enough. You can also say that the game selling this much despite lack of marketing and being a musou spin-off is impressive because Dragon Quest is a series that has been Nintendo exclusive for two generations now, yet it sold as much as the past entries despite being on a new platform.

Umm. The fact that it does as bad as remake there just further shows how bad the sales are here. S-E immediatly stop publishing dq game after all its spin off and remake bomb. So if dq heroes is only able to do around those number, i dont se will be any happy at all.

 

[OléGunner]

Its not even above 200k in the UK.

Serious.

Halo 3 did 370k in a week for comparison.

We've now had 3 huge underperformamces in a short amount of time. Halo, Assassin's Creed, and Tomb Raider

Bomba Trifecta.

I've barely acknowledged AC's big downslide in UK or the USA sales threads with so much other stuff happening.

Ubi would be at the panic stations but at least they have various old and new IP to keep them going with AC on the wane.