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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

Javin98

Banned
I take back what I said. This thread's great. We've had meltdowns, the appearance of a new hero and then the return of an old one.

I usually prefer my NPD threads to start off with a bang but a slow-burner once in a while isn't necessarily a bad thing either.
Yep, it started off as a shit thread and almost everyone evacuated. But then in the darkness, our hero, NPD_George gave us numbers with accuracy we have never seen before. Then the thread was revitalized and had some decent discussions, even some salty posters. And today, the prodigal son returns with pies. But I have to admit, I'm not a big fan of the JRPG talk going on right now.
 
A larger base increases probability of a sale. When we're talking a few thousand gained over tens of millions of growth... yes, it is relevant especially when talking about things with such minuscule numbers to begin with. The bigger issue is that the numbers are, outside of DQIX, all pathetic. A change of 20 million from 2008 to 2011 is enormous compared to a change of a few thousand.
If user base was a factor, all franchise would have faced increased sales going from one entry to the next. But it doesn't happen for every one of them, infact some of them decline despite a bigger user base. It doesn't undermine the user base but it is not exactly a big factor here either.

DQIX under Nintendo outsold/sold par with many Tales releases.
DQIX was outsold by DQVIII, which was released on PS2.

All I ever said on the subject was that it wasn't good. The fact that it performed on the level of DQIV-VI does not change the fact that the numbers then and now were not good, and after DQVI SE dropped the series in the West. That was all I stated on the matter.

It is not impressive. It is simply bad.
It performed w.r.t to what it did historically. That is fine in my book.

Some people are using these numbers to blame the platform, which is rather stupid.

Umm. The fact that it does as bad as remake there just further shows how bad the sales are here. S-E immediatly stop publishing dq game after all its spin off and remake bomb. So if dq heroes is only able to do around those number, i dont se will be any happy at all.
Why is this surprising when they had no lofty expectations themselves. They also have other plans judging from the release of DQH on Steam. So there's that.

If DQXI did similar numbers, then it is entirely different story.
 
Poor? From what I've seen, it's inline with DS DQ remakes and One Piece Warrior (IIRC) which are the closest thing we can compare this spinoff (not that I am saying these are good figures mind you).

I think it is unfair to judge the PS4 japanese sales based on DQ spinoff. And if we are comparing MH4U, we should compare that to Bloodbourne which maybe around 400-500k (someone has updated figure on this?) in NA.

D5 on the other hand is kind of sad. I love this series, I hope it did good digital which I kind of doubt :(

"inline with DS DQ remakes and One Piece Warrior" = poor. SQEX decided to ditch DQ IP in the West because of DQ remakes sales - mind you, they were quite smaller projects with respect to DQ Heroes, and surely way less advertised.

I also feel Bloodborne doesn't necessarily fit into the "Japanese game bought by Japanese game lovers" category - it was advertised as a primary first-party IP, and is brutal and mature-themed action, which surely fits well the current PS4 audience.

Explain Bloodborne's sales.

Also, Zestiria did well considering it's now multiplatform.

And do you expect Persona 5, FFXV, KH3, Dark Souls 3 to all bomb?

I also feel Bloodborne doesn't necessarily fit into the "Japanese game bought by Japanese game lovers" category - it was advertised as a primary first-party IP, and is brutal and mature-themed action, which surely fits well the current PS4 audience (more in line with Resident Evil, for example, than Disgaea).

Zestiria sold ok - even though the first Tales of game on platforms like 360 and Wii debuted way better.

As for P5 & co. - I don't feel they will bomb. After all, big IPs should be safe, because they are able to catch a wider audience. Not expecting KH3 to replicate PS2 numbers, of course.

Putting aside the fact that DQ Heroes is not even a JRPG (comparing it with muso-like games is indeed better suited) the "lot of jRPGs" you're mentioning are most likely announced, but not out yet, right ? Things like Star Ocean V, FFXV, Kingdom Hearts III, DQXI or Persona 5 ? Because right now, I don't have the sensation PS4 is crawling under JRPG. I may have missed something, though.

People are buying a platform also considering the perspective of future games - that's how, for example, sold PS2 in the first year and a half: before the heavy hitters came, audience was already there.

It performed w.r.t to what it did historically. That is fine in my book.

Some people are using these numbers to blame the platform, which is rather stupid.

You think SQEX would have expected more since they started to publish DQ by themselves again in Western countries.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Yeah, DQ remakes results on DS were't that good to begin with unfortunately (hopefully, DQVII-DQVIII will obtain to sell better, but I fear they won't sell that much better; prove me wrong 3DS JRPG lovers!), and DQH sales are on the low level of what done by the remakes. I know it's a different genre (action-Musou-RPG v.s. JRPG), but it's still on the low side. I think 50,000-60,000 (retail only) would've been a more convincing result.

Tales of Zestiria sold better than Xillia 2, worse than Xillia and Graces in its first month. It's also PS4/PS3, and the PS4 SKU was made specifically for the West (no Japanese release in sight). I'd say more in between good and bad?

Disgaea 5 numbers are lower than the others, but they should be decent for the franchise. This one did well by itself.
 

Kathian

Banned
Halo5 bundle < Uncharted bundle

Oh my. MS still don't seem to have a grasp of the market do they? Whatever happened around the late 360 era and early One era really has lost them an edge they once had. They just don't seem to be able to set out a strategy of tactic other than thankfully having good third party relations.
 
Bomba Trifecta.

I've barely acknowledged AC's big downslide in UK or the USA sales threads with so much other stuff happening.

Ubi would be at the panic stations but at least they have various old and new IP to keep them going with AC on the wane.

On the positive side Fallout is gigantic up. COD is showing impressive legs in both Japan and the UK which means more than likely the same is happening in the US and Battlefront is about to hit.

So not all bad news :)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
On the positive side Fallout is gigantic up. COD is showing impressive legs in both Japan and the UK which means more than likely the same is happening in the US and Battlefront is about to hit.

So not all bad news :)

COD is still on the lower side of the franchise, though, and a good part of those "impressive legs" can be attributed to a Friday release v.s. a Tuesday release. It still had better legs than what I thought by factoring in the different release days, so it's not all negative, and doing on par with Advanced Warfare's first two weeks is by no mean awful. But it's not that great either. It should perform slightly better than AW in the following weeks, I suppose, since, again, the second week drop was softer than I anticipated, meaning that it could have more strength as time goes by.

Fallout 4 is fucking gigantic indeed, though.
 

crinale

Member
Tales of Zestiria sold better than Xillia 2, worse than Xillia and Graces in its first month. It's also PS4/PS3, and the PS4 SKU was made specifically for the West (no Japanese release in sight). I'd say more in between good and bad?

Zestiria sold better than Xilia2 really struck me. It's like exactly reverse of how game was received in Japan lol.
Well at least if Zestiria could actually sell better than Xilia 2 then there may be a market for JRPG after all (I said maybe).
 
COD is still on the lower side of the franchise, though, and a good part of those "impressive legs" can be attributed to a Friday release v.s. a Tuesday release. It still had better legs than what I thought by factoring in the different release days, so it's not all negative, and doing on par with Advanced Warfare's first two weeks is by no mean awful. But it's not that great either. It should perform slightly better than AW in the following weeks, I suppose, since, again, the second week drop was softer than I anticipated, meaning that it could have more strength as time goes by.

Fallout 4 is fucking gigantic indeed, though.

If Black Ops 3 was on sale as many days it would be above both AW and Ghosts. Its already above Ghosts.

And Activision already confirmed digital buy rate is 2x at launch what AW was.

Its outperforming the last 2 by a good sized margin
 

Kathian

Banned
Imru’ al-Qays;185644652 said:
I only got to the mid-60s so apologies if this has been answered, but:

Why did NPD_George become NDP_Mulcair?

People decided he had the same name as the head of NPD thus he was the head of NPD.
 

jbluzb

Member
I think November and December will be telling. If sales are still shit, then it might be time to worry a bit. But yes, the numbers don't lie on Halo. Kind of sad, really.

it is quite impressive when you put into context ps4 increased their projected shipping numbers for the current quarter. the hardware sales is not coming from NA. if NA is contracting, PS brand is safe because the rest of the world sales pulling in the $$$$
 
it is quite impressive when you put into context ps4 increased their projected shipping numbers for the current quarter. the hardware sales is not coming from NA, if NA is contracting, PS brand is safe because of rest of the world sales pulling in the $$$$

NA isnt really contracting. PS4 should be up largely over November 2014. If its not given the deals, bundles, and games something is very wrong
 

Sandfox

Member
Zestiria sold better than Xilia2 really struck me. It's like exactly reverse of how game was received in Japan lol.
Well at least if Zestiria could actually sell better than Xilia 2 then there may be a market for JRPG after all (I said maybe).

I don't think Xillia 2 did all well, but I could be wrong.
 
I'm guessing Fallout 4 will break 3.5 million with bundles this month with the top 3 software charts being


CoD Black Ops 3 (XB1, PS4, 360, PS3) - the large amount of CoD bundle sales will likely ensure that XB1 is the leas selling platform for CoD but including bundles PS4 will come out on top.
Not so sure here. If the info that maps DLCs arrive first on PS4 spreads, it could even take it software-wise.

Fallout 4 (PS4, XB1, PC) - Bundles will skew this in favor of PS4 but it should be reallly close between the two even with bundles included


Battlefront (XB1, PS4, PC) - again bundles will skew this in favor of XB1 but counting bundles PS4 will have sold the most.
Same here with Battlefront. Is there anything worthy content-wise that comes first or exclusively to PS4? Otherwise I agree.
 

Javin98

Banned
it is quite impressive when you put into context ps4 increased their projected shipping numbers for the current quarter. the hardware sales is not coming from NA. if NA is contracting, PS brand is safe because the rest of the world sales pulling in the $$$$
It is very interesting to me that PS4 shipments surpassed most of our expectations in Q2 and Q3 2015 despite selling only relatively mediocre numbers in the US compared to previous US market leaders. I think Europe and developing countries are contributing more to the PS4's sales than we thought.
 

crinale

Member
It is very interesting to me that PS4 shipments surpassed most of our expectations in Q2 and Q3 2015 despite selling only relatively mediocre numbers in the US compared to previous US market leaders. I think Europe and developing countries are contributing more to the PS4's sales than we thought.

Well they sure have shipped a lot to stuff retail channels, to get prepared for holiday season. However I also think the main strength of PS4, if not the strongest one, is (relatively) universal appeal to various markets worldwide. Same goes to PC market & mobile fronts too.
 
Tales of Zestiria sold better than Xillia 2, worse than Xillia and Graces in its first month. It's also PS4/PS3, and the PS4 SKU was made specifically for the West (no Japanese release in sight). I'd say more in between good and bad?

TOZ also had PC version this time but you can't really tell much from that since the numbers WW.
 

Vena

Member
If user base was a factor, all franchise would have faced increased sales going from one entry to the next. But it doesn't happen for every one of them, infact some of them decline despite a bigger user base. It doesn't undermine the user base but it is not exactly a big factor here either.

Yes because there are other factors in play as well. Such as atrophy of the original fan base or a bad product, etc.

My statement was one of simple probability theory. All things remaining constant otherwise, you'd expect growth with more people to potentially sell to. This, however, does not mean that all things will remain the same and that growth is guaranteed.

DQIX was outsold by DQVIII, which was released on PS2.

DS piracy era. Its basically impossible to determine how well DQIX could have performed had it not been in one of the industry's most crippling periods of piracy.

It performed w.r.t to what it did historically. That is fine in my book.

Some people are using these numbers to blame the platform, which is rather stupid.

Those were all ports, they did badly. This is a spin-off, it also did badly. It isn't fine. The last time numbers like this were "fine" for off-shoot products, SE ran away.
 
toz ~ 58k
d5 ~ 26k
dq ~ 31k

jd2016 ~ 38k, Wii ~ 39%

Disgaea 5 seems to be a success :)

Never expected ToZ to match the series' high of ToX. Still decent numbers for the first Tales on PS4.

DQH at 30k copies is still like 1.8 million in revenue in NA only.

Add in some Europe and some digital, so thats another 1.5 mil with no marketing budget.

So maybe thats ok?

SE already made bank by shipping 1 million in JP+Asia. For a DQ spin off, even disregarding the West, thats a fantastic result.

DQ VI ~50k (from this thread?)
DQ IV ~76k in four months

Both were for DS, which was a popular handheld and the "home" of Dragon Quest as many people consider in this thread. It was also a big platform for JRPGs so there was a huge audience for it.

Best selling DQ was VIII (PS2) as per Anihawk followed by IX (DS).

Well this puts into perspective how small the DQ franchise is. Remakes of mainline games on a system as popular as the DS resulted in such low numbers.

Being the first DQ game in the West, on a new platform, especially considering that this is a Musou spin off, DQH seems to have done relatively fine.
SE really should of marketed it better though. There was no marketing.

Those Dragon Quest Heroes numbers don't seem as bad once you look at other entries in the series.

Yup. This puts into perspective how small the Musou game appeal is in the West.
 
You think SQEX would have expected more since they started to publish DQ by themselves again in Western countries.
Lets not jump to conclusions that DQH sales will stop SE's plan to revitalize the series in the West.

DS piracy era. Its basically impossible to determine how well DQIX could have performed had it not been in one of the industry's most crippling periods of piracy.
So stop trying to use it to judge sales?


Those were all ports, they did badly. This is a spin-off, it also did badly. It isn't fine. The last time numbers like this were "fine" for off-shoot products, SE ran away.
They were remakes not "ports".

Are SE running away now? All this discussion is meaningless if DQH 2 is announced for the West.
 
DQIX still sold more than VIII in Western territories, IIRC. It sold quite well in Europe.

Lets not jump to conclusions that DQH sales will stop SE's plan to revitalize the series in the West.

I never said that. I just said that SQEX stopped publishing DQ titles when Western sales were slightly better than DQ Heroes ones - so it cannot be a "fine result". Then there are other factors to account for, such as SQEX hope of finding a RPG audience on PS4.
 

Vena

Member
So stop trying to use it to judge sales?

What I said is relevant only for the ceiling of sales, not the floor. It is still of value to compare even with stifled performance, it is simply impossible to tell how much better it could have performed. This does not, somehow, make its performance unusable in comparisons.

In the instance where I used it (comparison to Tales, comparison between titles), it was perfectly valid. Disregarding data is but a fallacy of omission.

Are they running away now? All this discussion is meaningless if DQH 2 is announced for the West.

A question that cannot be answered. It also took more than one failure to cause SE to withdraw last time, so placing this question now and here is a matter of avoiding the issue/diversion from the issue of the sales still being bad.
 

Javin98

Banned
Well they sure have shipped a lot to stuff retail channels, to get prepared for holiday season. However I also think the main strength of PS4, if not the strongest one, is (relatively) universal appeal to various markets worldwide. Same goes to PC market & mobile fronts too.
I agree that Sony shipped more units to prepare for the price drop and holiday season. However, I don't think they shipped to the point of overshipping. I don't think there are more than 1.5 million PS4's sitting in stores, so the sales are definitely pretty strong in some areas.
 

dolemite

Member
Shouldn't we be comparing Blop3 to Blop2 and 1, not to AW and Ghost? The series is clearly in a decline but not with respect to other (non-related) CoD titles.
 
DQIX still sold more than VIII in Western territories, IIRC. It sold quite well in Europe.
DQVIII sales are for NPD. Atleast that's what I assumed from Anihawk's post. He/she might have access to the numbers so who knows.

I never said that. I just said that SQEX stopped publishing DQ titles when Western sales were slightly better than DQ Heroes ones - so it cannot be a "fine result". Then there are other factors to account for, such as SQEX hope of finding a RPG audience on PS4.
If the results for this month have showed us anything, it is that there is a JRPG audience on PS4. So I don't see how you have arrived to the conclusion that SE should be worried about it? I am sure their upcoming games like SO5, FFXV and KH will do just fine on the platform.

A question that cannot be answered. It also took more than one failure to cause SE to withdraw last time, so placing this question now and here is a matter of avoiding the issue/diversion from the issue of the sales still being bad.
It is obvious they are thinking about multiplatform now. DQH is for PC including PS4. DQ remakes were exclusive to a single platform which definitely hurt its sales potential. I am not seeing the series being exclusive to a platform in the near future. The age of it being Nintendo exclusive is long gone now, and along with it, hopefully SE has no issues with localization since it will be on multiple platforms.
 
Wait, I thought I heard Halo 5 sold(shipped?) approximately 6,600,000 units world wide? I knew the was way too high and was extremely skeptical, but am I reading under 1 million?
 

crinale

Member
Wait, I thought I heard Halo 5 sold(shipped?) approximately 6,600,000 units world wide? I knew the was way too high and was extremely skeptical, but am I reading under 1 million?

Wait I hadn't heart that number before. Where did you hear about that?
(Maybe dividing the sell-in money by unit cost?)
 
Wait, I thought I heard Halo 5 sold(shipped?) approximately 6,600,000 units world wide? I knew the was way too high and was extremely skeptical, but am I reading under 1 million?

you got fooled by microsofts PR on halo, i'm guessing your 6.6 came from the touted $400million revenue for halo which included hardware and accessories, and probably halo figures :p
 
DQIX still sold more than VIII in Western territories, IIRC. It sold quite well in Europe.



I never said that. I just said that SQEX stopped publishing DQ titles when Western sales were slightly better than DQ Heroes ones - so it cannot be a "fine result". Then there are other factors to account for, such as SQEX hope of finding a RPG audience on PS4.

Your logic is poor considering you are comparing a remake DQ mainline title to a spin off DQ Musou game.
DQH is not going to stop SE. Its already a success story for them. The only title that could do that is DQ11 bombing which I highly doubt is going to happen.
 

Oregano

Member
Your logic is poor considering you are comparing a remake DQ mainline title to a spin off DQ Musou game.

Also comparing a game with extensive voice work to one with none. Then again it probably didn't have quite as much text.

Also of note: Dragon Quest was only Nintendo exclusive for one generation and when the Ds games were released the last two mainline games had been PlayStation games.
 
Your logic is poor considering you are comparing a remake DQ mainline title to a spin off DQ Musou game.

I like how before it was "DQ Heroes is an actionRPG, not a Musou!" and now it's "DQ Heroes is a Musou, not an actionRPG!".

DQVIII sales are for NPD. Atleast that's what I assumed from Anihawk's post. He/she might have access to the numbers so who knows.

If the results for this month have showed us anything, it is that there is a JRPG audience on PS4. So I don't see how you have arrived to the conclusion that SE should be worried about it? I am sure their upcoming games like SO5, FFXV and KH will do just fine on the platform.

The jRPG audience on PS4 might be too niche to sustain games such as DQXI and SO5. Please also note that SQEX has also Nier 2, Dissidia, Tetsuna, perhaps even some Mana and Fron Mission - so the audience should be stronger than that to make them sustainable projects. FFXV and KH3 will be fine because they have mass-market appeal.

Also, Tales of Zestiria numbers are not that pretty looking at how Vesperia debuted on 360 and Symponia 1.5 debuted on Wii.
 

Javin98

Banned
I honestly thought everyone knew that was the case.
Depends on how much you think Europe and developing countries contribute to the PS4's sales, I guess. Generally, it's estimated that the US contributes about 36% of PS4's sales, but I think recently, the percentage dropped even further.
 

watdaeff4

Member
How so?

So, Halo 5 bundle didn't "helped" ( i heard otherwise ) to beat PS4. What is the reason then?

Ur right because there wasn't one single person who bought the $350 XB1 bundle + $60 Halo 5 for a total of $410 instead of buying the $500 Halo 5 bundle

Not anybody would bother to want to save $90

Edit: Bgamer was trying to say Halo the game is why XB1 had more sales, not the bundle
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
If Black Ops 3 was on sale as many days it would be above both AW and Ghosts. Its already above Ghosts.

And Activision already confirmed digital buy rate is 2x at launch what AW was.

Its outperforming the last 2 by a good sized margin

Retail-wise, we can't forget how Ghosts sales were more spread between launch and the Holidays due to PS4 and One launches. Thus, the first two weeks aren't exactly the best indicators for it. It's a phenomenon we've seen with all major end-of-the-year multiplatform titles in 2013, I'm going to edit my post in the PAL thread to highlight that. :p

It's true that digital sales are increasing and they will help against AW, you're right. Still, it's not enough to recoup the massive decline COD saw compared to the past entries. Of course, without considering the franchise, these are still big sales for a game.
 
The jRPG audience on PS4 might be too niche to sustain games such as DQXI and SO5. Please also note that SQEX has also Nier 2, Dissidia, Tetsuna, perhaps even some Mana and Fron Mission - so the audience should be stronger than that to make them sustainable projects. FFXV and KH3 will be fine because they have mass-market appeal.

Also, Tales of Zestiria numbers are not that pretty looking at how Vesperia debuted on 360 and Symponia 1.5 debuted on Wii.
You are still trying to downplay the sales figure yet you are conveniently forgetting the fact that there were not 1 but 3 JRPGs released in this month. Two of them still sold well and DQH sold as it did historically, even if it was a bad result.

ToZ result is actually pretty good since it is better than ToX 2, and especially since ToZ is the first Tales of game that was multiplatform. It launched on PC same day and date as PS3/4 and yet did these numbers. Combined on PC/PS3/PS4, the debut for the series might be easily higher than Symphonia and Vesperia.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Depends on how much you think Europe and developing countries contribute to the PS4's sales, I guess. Generally, it's estimated that the US contributes about 36% of PS4's sales, but I think recently, the percentage dropped even further.

Honestly, I believe last quarter's shipments were way too large to think that a bigger relevance of US sales could explain it: Sony shipped lots of units to be prepared for the price cut (in US, it happened a few days after September 30th 2015, thus they should have started shipping units already). Even in extremely optimistic hypotesis, I think there were at least 1 million units out of the 4 millions shipped unsold on shelves (I'd say more around 1.5 - near 2 millions).
 
You are still trying to downplay the sales figure yet you are conveniently forgetting the fact that there were not 1 but 3 JRPGs released in this month. Two of them still sold well and DQH sold as it did historically, even if it was a bad result.

ToZ result is actually pretty good since it is better than ToX 2, and especially since ToZ is the first Tales of game that was multiplatform. It launched on PC same day and date as PS3/4 and yet did these numbers. Combined on PC/PS3/PS4, the debut for the series might be easily higher than Symphonia and Vesperia.

"Two of them still sold well" - We don't agree on this, but still. The hope of those publishers is to at least retain the sales they had on PS3 (e.g. Namco Bandai with Tales of), not to post lower sales (I don't know how much previous Disgaea games sold in NA but the first 2 on PS2 sold quite well) also considering the fact that the market is shrinking and PS4 seems the only platform where it makes sense to develop retail releases as time goes by - are those Zestiria sales PS3+PS4? If so, yikes at what the PS4 might have sold. Symphonia 1.5 on Wii did 96k units; Vesperia around that number.
 

casiopao

Member
Why is this surprising when they had no lofty expectations themselves. They also have other plans judging from the release of DQH on Steam. So there's that.

If DQXI did similar numbers, then it is entirely different story.

No company had no expectations there. All company would always wanted its game to do gangbusters. And dqh is also seen as the first dq to return to sony platform after wii and ds era so, there are possibilities that the expectation should not be to do worst than ds remake.

Your logic is poor considering you are comparing a remake DQ mainline title to a spin off DQ Musou game.
DQH is not going to stop SE. Its already a success story for them. The only title that could do that is DQ11 bombing which I highly doubt is going to happen.

I dont think it is such a bad comparison here.

While the remake is turn base like its original, it is still remake and lack that shiny/new product pull.

Dqh on the other hand while may alienate its hardcore turn base fans, it still had that new product pull,being action jrpg rather than normal musou being its marketing slogan and also some fan boys hype for the first Dq to return to sony platform.

I feel both had their own advantage and disadvantages that makes them comparable.
 

gtj1092

Member
What I said is relevant only for the ceiling of sales, not the floor. It is still of value to compare even with stifled performance, it is simply impossible to tell how much better it could have performed. This does not, somehow, make its performance unusable in comparisons.

In the instance where I used it (comparison to Tales, comparison between titles), it was perfectly valid. Disregarding data is but a fallacy of omission.



A question that cannot be answered. It also took more than one failure to cause SE to withdraw last time, so placing this question now and here is a matter of avoiding the issue/diversion from the issue of the sales still being bad.

One only needs to bring up all your past post defending low sales of niche Japanese games on 3DS every NPD thread due to them being in line with past sales in the series to know your only problem with DQH sales is that it's associated with a Sony console.

You and pennywise83 are amazing and very predictable.
 
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