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[Psycho_Mantis]

Not looking at those numbers it didn't. I think this is the first time Disgaea's selling worse in America in than in Japan, and D5 bombed in Japan too. NIS is sorta fucked.

You are wrong again. D5 is in line with previous entries, considering digital and Nisa is not accounted for as well that bodes well for NISA on PS4 in the West. Their drop JP sales is worrying for now.

First month NPD sales (retail):
P4G: 34k
BD: 160k
FEA: 117k
SMTIV: 75k

FEA sold 1m+ in the West alone, BD around 600k.

P4G: 700k as of Dec 2013. Thats 400k in the West and this was on the Vita.

 

[prudislav]

Damn Disgaea 5 sold almost as much as DQH?!?!?!

Thank goodness for the incoming PC port. Also justifies why they didn't port to Xbox One. If it only sold that for PS4, it probably would have done like 2k on Xbox.

whait what ?? PC port?

 

[Nirolak]

So for the console tie ratios, I'm going to start pulling out dated 2016 titles that should debut over 200K in NPD and are on PS4/XB1.

I've put things I'm not overwhelmingly positive of in parenthetical comments.

January:
Lego Marvel's Avengers

February:
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided
Far Cry Primal
Street Fighter V
(I feel PvZ2 and Naruto would have to overperform to hit 200K.)

March:
Uncharted 4
The Division
(It'd be pretty poor if Hitman couldn't hit 200K, but it does have a whacky business model.)

April:
Dark Souls III
(Quantum Break could be pretty borderline.)

May:
Mirror's Edge
Battleborn
(This month has two riskier titles from notably success developers. I'm being generous though given the investment in both titles since I feel 200K would be catastrophic for either.)

Notes:
For Honor, Overwatch, and EA Sports UFC2 are all slated for this window and feel like potential 200K+ debuts. I don't seriously believe Doom will make it out in this window.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Tie ratios, while not good, don't seem too surprising to me on the basis there appears to be almost no software getting released.

Exactly. Snake eating its tail. Higher dev budgets increase risk. Increased risk equals fewer, safer bets. Fewer, safer bets equals homogenization and reduced release count. Reduced release count leads to fewer opportunities to appeal to consumers. Which, of course, leads to declining packaged tie ratios and packaged SW category sales despite HW of PS4 and Xone doing okay.

Through September, release count in 2015 is very similar (123) to 2014 (125). We have to see on 2016. Guessing it might come down a bit more as dedicated handheld goes away.

 

[Inuhanyou]

AAA game market crashed years ago. This is just how it is now with less games able to come out as a result.

The games that have taken their place are largely digital indie type titles

 

[Mpl90]

Exactly. Snake eating its tail. Higher dev budgets increase risk. Increased risk equals fewer, safer bets. Fewer, safer bets equals homogenization and reduced release count. Reduced release count leads to fewer opportunities to appeal to consumers. Which, of course, leads to declining packaged tie ratios and packaged SW category sales despite HW of PS4 and Xone doing okay.

Through September, release count in 2015 is very similar (123) to 2014 (125). We have to see on 2016. Guessing it might come down a bit more as dedicated handheld goes away.

NX (at least the handheld form factor) releases next year, though.

...But it's also true that, even if it releases a bit before Holidays (in case they really want to launch both handheld and home form factors in 2016), it won't still be enough on the market to offset the decline determined by 3DS being in its last year.

 

[BadWolf]

NX (at least the handheld form factor) releases next year, though.

...But it's also true that, even if it releases a bit before Holidays (in case they really want to launch both handheld and home form factors in 2016), it won't still be enough on the market to offset the decline determined by 3DS being in its last year.

Is there any legit word regarding this? It will be two versions of the console and not one hybrid device?

 

[Fdkn]

Exactly. Snake eating its tail. Higher dev budgets increase risk. Increased risk equals fewer, safer bets. Fewer, safer bets equals homogenization and reduced release count. Reduced release count leads to fewer opportunities to appeal to consumers. Which, of course, leads to declining packaged tie ratios and packaged SW category sales despite HW of PS4 and Xone doing okay.

Through September, release count in 2015 is very similar (123) to 2014 (125). We have to see on 2016. Guessing it might come down a bit more as dedicated handheld goes away.

you like to post that chart but that only means NPD data and the likes is less valuable each year. Small games keep getting released but they don't need to print discs, reducing risk and improving margins. Self publish is also helping there.
Digital only games replaced older generations shovelware. Even big publishers like Ubisoft or EA use this model for small projects, whereas back in the day those games would have been at retail.

 

[Nirolak]

you like to post that chart but that only means NPD data and the likes is less valuable each year. Small games keep getting released but they don't need to print discs, reducing risk and improving margins. Sel publish is also helping there.
Digital only games replaced older generations shovelware. Even big publishers like Ubisoft or EA use this model for small projects, whereas back in the day those games would have been at retail.

Even counting digital though, the number of games being made is vastly down.

In 2008 EA was shipping 80+ games a year. Now they ship like 12 console titles including downloadable.

 

[Mpl90]

Even counting digital though, the number of games being made is vastly down.

In 2008 EA was shipping 80+ games a year. Now they ship like 12 console titles including downloadable.

We'd definitely need both the retail only amount of releases and retail + digital only amount of releases, to get a better picture of the situation.

 

[Kyoufu]

Even counting digital though, the number of games being made is vastly down.

In 2008 EA was shipping 80+ games a year. Now they ship like 12 console titles including downloadable.

EA was shipping 80+ games a year?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

So for the console tie ratios, I'm going to start pulling out dated 2016 titles that should debut over 200K in NPD and are on PS4/XB1.

I've put things I'm not overwhelmingly positive of in parenthetical comments.

January:
Lego Marvel's Avengers

February:
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided
Far Cry Primal
Street Fighter V
(I feel PvZ2 and Naruto would have to overperform to hit 200K.)

March:
Uncharted 4
The Division
(It'd be pretty poor if Hitman couldn't hit 200K, but it does have a whacky business model.)

April:
Dark Souls III
(Quantum Break could be pretty borderline.)

May:
Mirror's Edge
Battleborn
(This month has two riskier titles from notably success developers. I'm being generous though given the investment in both titles since I feel 200K would be catastrophic for either.)

Notes:
For Honor, Overwatch, and EA Sports UFC2 are all slated for this window and feel like potential 200K+ debuts. I don't seriously believe Doom will make it out in this window.

UNS3 sold 1 million in 1.5 years and managed to get 10 in the March 2013 NPD. I expect UNS4 to perform better than UNS3 so it has a chance.

 

[Fdkn]

Even counting digital though, the number of games being made is vastly down.

In 2008 EA was shipping 80+ games a year. Now they ship like 12 console titles including downloadable.

80+ games or skus? because I'm trying to find those and the bigger list I got is on wikipedia and it's half of that, and there is a lot of shovelware in that list.

Digital games don't need to go through a publisher like EA now, their notable releases in 2015 are not that far from 2008.

Looking at their financial reports, Total Net Revenue (I know this is not the best metric, but they are huge and that's easy to find) is similar in both 2008 FY and 2014 FY.

 

[Obliterator]

Exactly. Snake eating its tail. Higher dev budgets increase risk. Increased risk equals fewer, safer bets. Fewer, safer bets equals homogenization and reduced release count. Reduced release count leads to fewer opportunities to appeal to consumers. Which, of course, leads to declining packaged tie ratios and packaged SW category sales despite HW of PS4 and Xone doing okay.

Through September, release count in 2015 is very similar (123) to 2014 (125). We have to see on 2016. Guessing it might come down a bit more as dedicated handheld goes away.

This is the real story of this gen imo. The amount of retail releases have just plummeted.

 

[Nirolak]

EA was shipping 80+ games a year?

Here are the four quarters of releases from EA for Fiscal 2009 (April 2008 - March 2009).

They release SKUs multiple times for distribution games (Rock Band especially), but I believe the rest is mostly unique (sans late ports).

They changed the format in which they presented this during the fiscal year if you notice the first one looks a bit different.

And here's this year:

80+ games or skus? because I'm trying to find those and the bigger list I got is on wikipedia and it's half of that, and there is a lot of shovelware in that list.

Digital games don't need to go through a publisher like EA now, their notable releases in 2015 are not that far from 2008.

Looking at their financial reports, Total Net Revenue (I know this is not the best metric, but they are huge and that's easy to find) is similar in both 2008 FY and 2014 FY.

Yes, and they're much more profitable, which is why they made this switch.

It's an audience long term issue though. People were buying those games. Now if you or your child wants licensed games you generally use your phone.

UNS3 sold 1 million in 1.5 years and managed to get 10 in the March 2013 NPD. I expect UNS4 to perform better than UNS3 so it has a chance.

It did do quite well over time, though I think that was in long term sales and legs as opposed to the debut month. I could be wrong.

 

[Bolivar687]

Digital games don't need to go through a publisher like EA now, their notable releases in 2015 are not that far from 2008.

This is the key observation here. Video games are going through the same transformation that all entertainment media are going through, wherein retail and big publishers become less and less important.

How anyone could look at the announced games currently in development and shown off at trade shows, and argue that gaming is becoming more homogenous, is beyond me.

 

[CosmicQueso]

you like to post that chart but that only means NPD data and the likes is less valuable each year. Small games keep getting released but they don't need to print discs, reducing risk and improving margins. Self publish is also helping there.
Digital only games replaced older generations shovelware. Even big publishers like Ubisoft or EA use this model for small projects, whereas back in the day those games would have been at retail.

It's an NPD thread, talking about Packaged SW tie ratios, Packaged release counts and Packaged Sales, all of which I pointed out in the post.

Nothing I said is invalidated at all by what is or what is not happening digitally.

How anyone could look at the announced games currently in development and shown off at trade shows, and argue that gaming is becoming more homogenous, is beyond me.

It's a trend on Packaged software. Which is, without question, less diverse now than it was during the peak software packaged sales years of 5-7 years ago.

 

[Obliterator]

Here are the four quarters of releases from EA for Fiscal 2009 (April 2008 - March 2009).

They release SKUs multiple times for distribution games (Rock Band especially), but I believe the rest is mostly unique (sans late ports).

And here's this year:

The major pubs have made a consolidation choice this gen. They bet HUGE on a couple titles and use methods like Season Passes and micro transactions to drive up the average price per game.

 

[Nirolak]

The major pubs have made a consolidation choice this gen. They bet HUGE on a couple titles and use methods like Season Passes and micro transactions to drive up the average price per game.

It did work very well for their finances honestly, at least for the winners.

Activision spearheaded this for the most part.

 

[Obliterator]

It did work very well for their finances honestly, at least for the winners.

Activision spearheaded this for the most part.

Yeah I mean I cant really knock them. Most of the major pubs are having a plenty fine generation in terms of revenue and profits.

Its just a bummer for consumers because we are seeing a lot less options for purchase in the market.

 

[Fdkn]

It's an NPD thread, talking about Packaged SW tie ratios, Packaged release counts and Packaged Sales, all of which I pointed out in the post.

Nothing I said is invalidated at all by what is or what is not happening digitally.

For this particular comparison, digital is not even relevant.
.

Well, what's happening in the digital side is relevant when just earlier you were posting this

I'm just realizing that for the next 3-4 years we're going to get a constant stream of mental gymnastics to show that the numbers every month "aren't that bad". Ugh.

Not only for the numbers of those big games (and no, I'm not one of those fools that think Halo/TR/whatever sold more than ~20% digitally) but for the games that don't exist in this thread but have impact on the consumer.

 

[Kralamoonard]

It did work very well for their finances honestly, at least for the winners.

Activision spearheaded this for the most part.

So what do you personally think the implications of this are? Is it bad/good for the industry and its consumers? It's clear this method can be profitable to publsihers, but does it have any long term effects on the industry? Is it as a result of the AAA crash someone posted above?

 

[Nirolak]

So what do you personally think the implications of this are? Is it bad/good for the industry and its consumers? It's clear this method can be profitable to publsihers, but does it have any long term effects on the industry? Is it as a result of the AAA crash someone posted above?

It's means that the people who were buying games like MySims, The Littlest Pet Shop, Boom Blox, or even Skate have decidedly less incentive to buy a dedicated device now.

It's not really a problem for the few types of games that are still being made in the short or medium term since obviously people who like those are still very well catered to.

Now, some of those are replaceable digitally, but if we look at the more mid-tier sized titles like Skate, no one is really offering an adequate substitute and that series had some pretty reasonable reach. Like the best the current generation can offer you is OllieOllie which is on non-dedicated platforms as well or Tony Hawk Pro Skater 5 which... um...

 

[CosmicQueso]

Well, what's happening in the digital side is relevant when just earlier you were posting this

If you want to discuss the validity of the data posted or its implications, then let's do that. If we're going to play the post history game, and compare statements that are not related to each other then I'm not interested.

 

[Kralamoonard]

It's means that the people who were buying games like MySims, The Littlest Pet Shop, Boom Blox, or even Skate have decidedly less incentive to buy a dedicated device now.

It's not really a problem for the few types of games that are still being made in the short or medium term since obviously people who like those are still very well catered to.

Now, some of those are replaceable digitally, but if we look at the more mid-tier sized titles like Skate, no one is really offering an adequate substitute and that series had some pretty reasonable reach. Like the best the current generation can offer you is OllieOllie which is on non-dedicated platforms as well or Tony Hawk Pro Skater 5 which... um...

Ah that's interesting, thanks for the insight. And yeah, it's a shame that AA games have been gone for a while now.

Also what do you mean by "dedicated" and "non-dedicated" platforms?

 

[Obliterator]

Yep a huge segment of the market has been abandoned by the Pubs. The entire industry now is core focused outside of maybe the yearly sports titles. Kids are growing up with mobile games not consoles anymore.

In the medium term, say this generation of consoles and the next, I don't think it will hurt TOO much because that generation of gamers is willing to buy a couple huge AAA games a year and spend a LOT of money on them, but long terms its not looking good.

I could see a future where things are mostly PC and mobile.

 

[Nirolak]

Ah that's interesting, thanks for the insight. And yeah, it's a shame that AA games have been gone for a while now.

Also what do you mean by "dedicated" and "non-dedicated" platforms?

Dedicated devices are consoles and handhelds which are explicitly built to play games.

Non-dedicated platforms are PCs, phones, tablets, etc where the main purpose is ostensibly something that isn't video game related and they play video games as an extra feature.

 

[Fdkn]

If you want to discuss the validity of the data posted or its implications, then let's do that. If we're going to play the post history game, and compare statements that are not related to each other then I'm not interested.

that post was the start of the conversation that led you to post the chart, so I think both statemets were related. Physical tie ratios being down one point vs last gen is explained by digital trends. Tie ratios including digital could be even higher this time, but there's no way to know.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Physical tie ratios being down one point vs last gen is explained by digital trends.

Of course that has an influence. I'd also argue that fewer disc based games coming out limits the packaged tie ratio. If a customer had 70 Action games to choose from in 2009, and now that customer has 23, well, the likelihood of something appealing to that customer is lessened, wouldn't you think?

Tie ratios including digital could be even higher this time, but there's no way to know.

I think, including Digital, especially with PS+ and GWG, total tie ratios can easily be seen as being much higher now than in prior gen.

This doesn't change the fact that fewer disc based games are being released now than in prior years, which is all the graph you were pointing to is saying.

My other statement was more in regards to the sales of individual title performance. Sales of Tomb Raider in the UK, for example, can not be explained as being "okay" based on digital trends alone.

In any case, I hope this doesn't qualify as any kind of list war thing. Just trying to be illustrative of the release count problem.

87 Action games released between Jan-Sept 2009, for example. Over the same period in 2015, 26 Action games released, however, 7 of those 26 were GOTY or Remasters. So, really, less than 20 Action games were released in the first 9 months of 2015 that could be considered "new".

 

[bombshell]

Damn, I missed an epic NPD thread on my 1 week vacation

Spoiler

ban

.

 

[Eolz]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if some "gens" (10+ years) after the death of consoles, we'll see some sort of comeback of dedicated devices. Undet a different form obviously.

Is there any legit word regarding this? It will be two versions of the console and not one hybrid device?

While it's not really the thread for that, everything (past announcements and hints from Iwata/Nintendo, rumors, leaks, etc) is leading to at least two form factors yes.
Technology (price/perf/size) isn't fully ready for hybrid, but even Iwata said that it might happen the gen after NX.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The decrease in retail releases is not inherently a bad thing. For instance I am sure, during the Wii era there was a lot of shovelware. Pubs these days focus more on attaining a few IPs that can do massive numbers rather than spread themselves thin, which makes sense considering the rising cost and time needed in game development these days. Maybe its me but I feel like there are a lot more higher quality releases as a result (console side, the collapse of the handheld industry is severe at this point). I think software sales would be a better metric, although digital is not tracked and is growing, as is the Indie scene. I don't think the trend of lower retail packages will continue with such a gradient but stabilize at some number.

 

[Hockeymac18]

Yep a huge segment of the market has been abandoned by the Pubs. The entire industry now is core focused outside of maybe the yearly sports titles. Kids are growing up with mobile games not consoles anymore.

In the medium term, say this generation of consoles and the next, I don't think it will hurt TOO much because that generation of gamers is willing to buy a couple huge AAA games a year and spend a LOT of money on them, but long terms its not looking good.

I could see a future where things are mostly PC and mobile.

I don't think people think this far ahead usually when thinking of these trends.

I do think the "core" market will be fine for a while, but dedicated consoles are probably going to be looking very different in the future.

 

[Mcdohl]

I know I'm very late to this party but...were there no PR statements this time from anyone or did OP fail to update?

 

[CosmicQueso]

Maybe its me but I feel like there are a lot more higher quality releases as a result.

I haven't updated this for 2015, but I'm not sure this was the case during the launch period. I'll update once 2015 is over. (Unless one wants to argue that critic scores aren't a valid measure of a game's quality)

 

[slavesnyder]

I haven't updated this for 2015, but I'm not sure this was the case during the launch period. I'll update once 2015 is over. (Unless one wants to argue that critic scores aren't a valid measure of a game's quality)

Sorry, Queso.
This looks interesting, but I am not sure what I am seeing.
(at least I am not pretending, so please have mercy).

I try: Doesn't matter if you push out many games or few games in a gen, the amount of really good games (80%+) stays roundabout constant. Right?

 

[CosmicQueso]

Doesn't matter if you push out many games or few games in a gen, the amount of really good games (80%+) stays roundabout constant. Right?

Pretty much, at least in the first year or so of this gen versus last.

So there's a case to be made that what is being lost are some of the lower quality games, sure. And you could legit say that there's a higher proportion of games on thew new boxes of 80+ quality. I guess you could even say that average quality is higher, but that would be a bit disingenuous.

Another wrinkle is that game reviewers openly admit that they are harsher on games now than they were a few years ago, especially compared to early last gen.

Totally. All you can do with this kind of comp is assume that these variances wash out over the larger sample. But yeah, it's not a perfect comp. But then again, review scores equaling "quality" is dubious to say the least.

 

[Bolivar687]

Another wrinkle is that game reviewers openly admit that they are harsher on games now than they were a few years ago, especially compared to early last gen.

 

[BadWolf]

While it's not really the thread for that, everything (past announcements and hints from Iwata/Nintendo, rumors, leaks, etc) is leading to at least two form factors yes.

Technology (price/perf/size) isn't fully ready for hybrid, but even Iwata said that it might happen the gen after NX.

Thanks!

 

[StevieP]

The decrease in retail releases is not inherently a bad thing. For instance I am sure, during the Wii era there was a lot of shovelware.

What we call "shovelware" is the clear sign that the platform you present is a success with the mainstream consumer. It's why you'll find it on today's most successful platforms.

Arguing that having less games on a platform is a *good* thing because they don't appeal to *you* and you're getting what you want anyway is not a good way to demonstrate health in a market.

 

[Hockeymac18]

Another wrinkle is that game reviewers openly admit that they are harsher on games now than they were a few years ago, especially compared to early last gen.

I agree that this is true. A lot of big games this year releasing in the mid 80s that probably would have been high 80s/low 90s last generation on metacritic.

 

[jroc74]

creamsugar showed up, good. Japanese rpgs doing bad as expected. And Wii leading sales for a title in 2015 is funny.

I would say hilarious. It must be a Ubisoft game? I am assuming because I just posted in a Ubi financial thread it was amazing that Wii had a higher % than Wii U for games last year and this year. I will say it again: who in the hell is still buying Wii games?? Didnt Ubi make Wii U versions of their games?

Damn, I missed an epic NPD thread on my 1 week vacation

Spoiler

ban

.

Yes, yes you did. So be good next time.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I would say hilarious. It must be a Ubisoft game? I am assuming because I just posted in a Ubi financial thread it was amazing that Wii had a higher % than Wii U for games last year and this year. I will say it again: who in the hell is still buying Wii games?? Didnt Ubi make Wii U versions of their games?

Just Darnce 20xx

 

[Boke1879]

Kinda OT but man... In about 7 hours. All those pent up Battlefront bundles are about to be unleashed in the wild. Can't wait to pick up mine.

 

[Nyoro SF]

Sadly we don't have European numbers for Tales, but here's where it's sitting at on SteamSpy: Owners: 85,067 ± 7,374

The revenue pull on PC must be massive for Bandai. Pure digital sales after all. I would conjecture that the revenue pull on PC is highest out of all platforms. What do you think Nirolak?

 

[slavesnyder]

Kinda OT but man... In about 7 hours. All those pent up Battlefront bundles are about to be unleashed in the wild. Can't wait to pick up mine.

Sales results threads become pre-prediction threads if they last long enough, so this is definitely not OT.

Hope we keep this thread cooking. Battlefront and Black Friday will be exvellent fuel.

 

[bombshell]

Kinda OT but man... In about 7 hours. All those pent up Battlefront bundles are about to be unleashed in the wild. Can't wait to pick up mine.

Are you getting the Vader edition or the standard one?

 

[Boke1879]

Sales results threads become pre-prediction threads if they last long enough, so this is definitely not OT.

Hope we keep this thread cooking. Battlefront and Black Friday will be exvellent fuel.

I'll be going to the midnight release at gamestop. If anything I'll come back and give anecdotal evidence lol.

Are you getting the Vader edition or the standard one?

Getting the Vader PS4

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

glad to see creamsugar doing his/her thing, those numbers though my heart weeps when i think we wont see another DQH or Transformers game.

 

[QaaQer]

What we call "shovelware" is the clear sign that the platform you present is a success with the mainstream consumer. It's why you'll find it on today's most successful platforms.

Arguing that having less games on a platform is a *good* thing because they don't appeal to *you* and you're getting what you want anyway is not a good way to demonstrate health in a market.

Or it alleviates 'choice overload'. It is kind of nice to walk into a store and choose between 5 kinds of bread instead of 400.