how is that possible if US=west? We don't even have videogame shops in Europe /lol
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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
how is that possible if US=west? We don't even have videogame shops in Europe /lol
Cow Goes Moo
Member
you don't find 100k low?
What kind of horrible person are you to sell something like that to your mom?!
Though seriously, why not give it to her as a gift?
Giriath_89
Member
Don't lynch me, but damn the Vader PS4 is climbing on Amazon. It's been some time since I saw a console at #5.
Pennywise83
Banned
I find useless to talk about first month sales for a game like YW.
YW opened at 56k units in Japan, and went to sell 1.2m+ in the span of a year.
Wanna change this prediction in 3.6 million.
Last year 3DS sales were flat MOM September to October. If we use 123k for September, i think the range 120k-130k should be correct.
CosmicQueso
Member
November will be interesting.
lightning2k3
Member
I'm thinking 112k for 3ds?
Isn't NPD tracking both US and Canada? SteamSpy shows ~6.5k Canadian owners for ToZ. Not too significant of course, but also not negligible.
NPD Canada is separate from this report.
i want to make a thread with the title "insider says November will be interesting " without any context and see what people will run with
If the Steam version is getting the bulk of it's sales from EU, I guess it's reasonable to say the PS3/PS4 versions are doing the same. Zestiria should manage to sell a few hundred thousand copies in the West at full price across all platforms. Bamco should be happy with that.
igordennis
Member
Where is the copyright? Someone on gaf will sue you.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
In all fairness, I was right about that: tablet sales are collapsing. Because they're useless.
But maybe they're holding on to a niche as console replacements for young kids. I'd like to see the evidence, though, rather than just accepting it as a sort of article of faith.
slavesnyder
Member
Did I miss an insider joke?Imru al-Qays;185819792 said:
Why should tablets be useless and consoles suddenly be the next big thing, founded on one anecdote?
Imru al-Qays
Banned
I'm not sure it's an inside joke, though I suppose whichever mod gave me this title thought it was funny for some reason. The reality is that the tablet market seems to have peaked. This is principally, in my view and in the view of plenty of tech analysts, because tablets aren't actually capable of doing anything you can't do better on either a smartphone or a PC, especially now that smartphones are pushing six inches.
In any event, consoles aren't the next big thing. They don't have to be for kids to still be playing them, though. They just have to be more or less as popular with kids as they have historically been. The people making the argument that kids these days don't play consoles because they play games on mobile don't actually appear to have any evidence to support this claim, at least not as far as I can tell.
Basically, stating that kids play mobile games more than they used to doesn't actually tell us anything about the future of the console market. Of course kids play mobile games more than they used to. Everyone plays mobile games more than they used to, because mobile games didn't used to exist.
Bolivar687
Banned
Imru al-Qays;185819792 said:
http://www.cnet.com/news/kids-now-pick-mobile-devices-over-pcs-consoles-for-gaming-npd-group/
^ This was the article finding that out of children ages 2-17, 63% play mobile games, 60% play consoles, and 45% play PC. The big takeaway is that mobile replaced PC as the biggest platform. However, it did note that the biggest shift occurred at the 2-5 age level, without divulging the other demographics. So while mobile is the entry point, we don't know if those kids eventually go on to also play on PC as well. Its an NPD report, so maybe George could clarify thay point.
It also noted that children are spending more time on PS4/Xbox One and physical releases make up much more revenue than mobile purchases. If anything, it's clear that it's not a zero sum game like some suggest.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
Very interesting, thanks!
My suspicion has been that mobile gaming would serve as a gateway drug for console gaming rather than a replacement for it among kids.
serversurfer
Member
My, what an interesting month it's been!
Props as always to our insiders for their insight. John and especially Queso have been particularly helpful this month, so kudos to them both. <3 I'm not sure what to make of the newcomer. If they were a sock puppet created/blessed by the staff to provide an extra layer of anonymity for leaks, then it seems they should've been presented as a shadowy figure not to be questioned. On the other hand, if they were legit and were here to generate goodwill by blessing us with the official, unofficial numbers, then it seems odd that they'd be scared off by an enthusiastic welcome, or even surprised by it. /shrug Oh, stumbling across @GeorgeNDP was a bit of a mindfuck though.
Anyway, disappointing results for PS4. I'd say that being down YOY supports my argument that "a game of our choice" isn't equally as appealing as "a game of your choice," especially when the game they've chosen for you this month is either a remaster or a collection of remasters. If they'd offered a $300 gameless console alongside the bundle, I've no doubt they'd be up YOY, and I think those additional sales would've been nearly as profitable for them, especially since the user needs to buy at least one game anyway. As it stands, with no unbundled console in the channel, they're marking their bundles down to the $300 price point, which surely affects their profitability. I think if they had a $300 solus SKU available, then they could've restricted the discounting of the bundles more to BF and Christmas than they seem to be doing now.
No, we can't say for sure if digital tie ratios have gone up a point, or a half point, or five points, but I don't see why uncertainty about the specific value means we should assume it's effectively zero and therefore make the rational decision to begin the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Props as always to our insiders for their insight. John and especially Queso have been particularly helpful this month, so kudos to them both. <3 I'm not sure what to make of the newcomer. If they were a sock puppet created/blessed by the staff to provide an extra layer of anonymity for leaks, then it seems they should've been presented as a shadowy figure not to be questioned. On the other hand, if they were legit and were here to generate goodwill by blessing us with the official, unofficial numbers, then it seems odd that they'd be scared off by an enthusiastic welcome, or even surprised by it. /shrug Oh, stumbling across @GeorgeNDP was a bit of a mindfuck though.
Anyway, disappointing results for PS4. I'd say that being down YOY supports my argument that "a game of our choice" isn't equally as appealing as "a game of your choice," especially when the game they've chosen for you this month is either a remaster or a collection of remasters. If they'd offered a $300 gameless console alongside the bundle, I've no doubt they'd be up YOY, and I think those additional sales would've been nearly as profitable for them, especially since the user needs to buy at least one game anyway. As it stands, with no unbundled console in the channel, they're marking their bundles down to the $300 price point, which surely affects their profitability. I think if they had a $300 solus SKU available, then they could've restricted the discounting of the bundles more to BF and Christmas than they seem to be doing now.
So, the 1.4M-1.5M figure that leaked was their worldwide sales? Yeesh. Phil wasn't kidding when he said even MS can't afford to make Bone exclusives anymore. They should hurry up and port that thing to W10, to start gauging potential interest for an H6.
Not invalidated, no, but it certainly changes the tone of the discussion. "A snake eating its tail" doesn't exactly paint a rosy picture of a healthy and sane industry. It's more evocative of a beast intent on devouring itself. You say the fact that packaged tie ratios have dropped a full point serves as proof that the snake is not only eating himself, but making good progress. But if digital tie ratios have increased by a point during that time, then not only are we selling and buying just as many games as ever, we're shifting to a delivery method that's generally more healthy for the industry (not to mention the environment).
No, we can't say for sure if digital tie ratios have gone up a point, or a half point, or five points, but I don't see why uncertainty about the specific value means we should assume it's effectively zero and therefore make the rational decision to begin the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Maybe you're not seeing the forest for the trees? Five years ago, we were at the peak of a ridiculously successful generation. Maybe the downturn we're seeing isn't entirely atypical of the start of a generation. Does that 800 > 200 chart you posted earlier go any further back? Also, did that chart include handheld releases? Seems like we'd wanna split those out if we're talking about the health of the "console" industry, since the handheld industry got decimated by mobile over the last few years.
This is a good example of what I mean regarding the negative tone being created by the "dismissal" of the digital market. Sure, going from 70 to 23 retail releases seems bad, but if there are 120-150 low-cost, high-profit, digital options that appear during that time, is it still a net loss for the industry and cause for concern?
So what? As long as other games are filling in the gaps, then great, I'd say.
Oh, definitely. Halo and TR did piss poor. There's no question about that. Of course, that doesn't spell doom for the industry as a whole either. But it could indicate another shift in the industry; possibly one that's difficult for us to perceive or measure, given our lack of insight in to digital sales. Or it could be as simple as nobody caring about Halo or playing Tomb Raider on an XBox. /shrug
I really don't understand what I'm even looking at here. It says that by the time there were 80 games for PS4, their average metascore had dropped to 25%? =/I haven't updated this for 2015, but I'm not sure this was the case during the launch period. I'll update once 2015 is over. (Unless one wants to argue that critic scores aren't a valid measure of a game's quality)
CosmicQueso
Member
Hi Server... you'd be happy to know that I was called all sorts of things about being a Sony fanboy across many internet sites this month. So I'm equally an MS fanboy as a Sony fanboy and I also apparently have it out for both Sony and Microsoft. I have yet to be called anti-Nintendo or a Nintendo fanboy. I'll work on it.
However, you're taking some things I'm saying and misconstruing the intent and meaning of what's being said. We've had these kinds of miscommunication before. I guess I'd just ask you to try to take what I'm saying at face value, and not assume any motive or intention behind them.
I try to speak very clearly and definitively, well as much as I can in this format, and try to clearly identify and label, specifically, whatever issue I'm talking about. It's not a perfect system, but what can we do.
I do appreciate and understand your position, definitely respect your posts.
I've already granted this point, a number of times. The whole chain of that conversation was purely on the Pacakged goods market. Only. That's it. The state of the Packaged goods market has certainly been caused in some part by what's happening in digital, but this is irrelevant when discussing purely and only what is happening specifically within Packaged.
Just a couple posts later I, of course, granted that with digital total tie ratios are as good or better now than before, and if you include PS+ and GWG they are much higher. You're arguing against a point I wasn't making.
Since we're talking specifically the Packaged market, I was looking at both the forest and the trees in detail.
I was not dismissing the digital market. It is not relevant when discussing the pure mechanics of what's happening in the Packaged market.
The point is, that for the packaged market, nothing is filling the gaps. It has nothing to do with digital.
That is a distribution chart, showing high to low gameranking scores in the Packaged release market. It shows that there have been 81 releases on PS4 with review scores starting at 97 through 25, while PS3 had 97 releases over the same number of months, with review scores ranging from 94 to 36. It just shows that the PS4 had fewer releases than the PS3 over the same period, but has had the same number of games reviewed at 72+. In particular, it shows that with the reduced release count we are not seeing higher quality games getting released this gen versus last gen in the packaged space (using GameRanking as an imperfect substitute for the word "quality")
However, you're taking some things I'm saying and misconstruing the intent and meaning of what's being said. We've had these kinds of miscommunication before. I guess I'd just ask you to try to take what I'm saying at face value, and not assume any motive or intention behind them.
I try to speak very clearly and definitively, well as much as I can in this format, and try to clearly identify and label, specifically, whatever issue I'm talking about. It's not a perfect system, but what can we do.
I do appreciate and understand your position, definitely respect your posts.
I've already granted this point, a number of times. The whole chain of that conversation was purely on the Pacakged goods market. Only. That's it. The state of the Packaged goods market has certainly been caused in some part by what's happening in digital, but this is irrelevant when discussing purely and only what is happening specifically within Packaged.
Just a couple posts later I, of course, granted that with digital total tie ratios are as good or better now than before, and if you include PS+ and GWG they are much higher. You're arguing against a point I wasn't making.
Since we're talking specifically the Packaged market, I was looking at both the forest and the trees in detail.
I was not dismissing the digital market. It is not relevant when discussing the pure mechanics of what's happening in the Packaged market.
The point is, that for the packaged market, nothing is filling the gaps. It has nothing to do with digital.
That is a distribution chart, showing high to low gameranking scores in the Packaged release market. It shows that there have been 81 releases on PS4 with review scores starting at 97 through 25, while PS3 had 97 releases over the same number of months, with review scores ranging from 94 to 36. It just shows that the PS4 had fewer releases than the PS3 over the same period, but has had the same number of games reviewed at 72+. In particular, it shows that with the reduced release count we are not seeing higher quality games getting released this gen versus last gen in the packaged space (using GameRanking as an imperfect substitute for the word "quality")
Imru al-Qays
Banned
Doesn't it show that we're seeing less shovelware but similar numbers of quality games?
CosmicQueso
Member
Imru’ al-Qays;185846663 said:
I'm not sure all sub 70 score games can be termed "shovelware" but the table essentially shows that, on PS4 and Xone at least, we got a similar number of games scoring on the higher end of the review scale over the comparable time periods than we did last gen, and fewer on the lower end.
Are we though? I don't have any digital release count or detailed sales info, but last gen we had Uno, Shadow Complex, Geometry Wars... some really big Digital only titles, especially early on. Are we really getting better or better selling digital only games this gen? I honestly don't know. I'd guess probably? The GWG/PS+ thing really throws a wrench in comparing the two gens as well. It seems like it's a friendlier environment to develop on these days, especially since the games can be ported to PC/set top/mobile in some cases.
SKUs, not games. But amusingly, 2008 is exactly the year EA started scaling down their release schedule with the intent of "fewer but more profitable releases", as their old CEO put it. Current state was their plan all along (give or take a few missteps), and I guess the stock market really likes it too.Nirolak said:
slavesnyder
Member
Did the retail guys/girls that prepared for battlefield launch yesterday show up again?
Would love to hear some stories and impressions.
Would love to hear some stories and impressions.
I'd argue those were big because they were the few very good ones, the quality bar is now raised in the digital space compared to that time.
Now we've got Rocket League, Resogun, Shovel Knight, Transistor, Velocity 2X and I could keep going on for a while but I think you get my point
CosmicQueso
Member
Okay, sure, I'm with you. Helps to get that PS+/GWG money too. Fair enough.
I think one did. But he only talked about his specific store. Abdiel hasn't made it here yet as far as I know.
slavesnyder
Member
I guess there is a much, much higher percentage of internet-connected consoled this gen. Actually, you cannot play most games without a first update properly anyway.
And it helps digital games that their predecessors like Limbo, Thomas, Braid etc. showed how good downloadable games can be. Just remember how much time indies suddenly got at E3s this gen.
Having the cooler download stuff became a selling point, or at least a pretty feather on the hat of the console manufacturers. Digital purchase now is quite normal, so there is a much higher chance to make money here. And you can cut out the middle man, too.
Lol Cosmic! What did you say? I must know!
I was thinking, MGS sold somewhere near 800k last month and didn't even make the top 10 this month(so likely below 150k, maybe even around the 100k mark). Doesn't bode well for Halo making the the top 10 next month if 500k is the entry requirement.
Ryng_tolu, do you have your 03 vs 07 vs 15 comparison for October?
Ryng_tolu, do you have your 03 vs 07 vs 15 comparison for October?
I could be misremembering, so please don't take this as gospel, but Dragon Age: Inquisition last year likely hit around... what was it? The 650-680k mark in its debut month? I bring this up because I've chatted with a couple of BioWare folks who claim it just barely missed the top ten (a claim which was stated in a public, controlled PR manner on their official forums as well). Now obviously it could be a supreme exaggeration, but I don't doubt the game delivered somewhere around that mark.
So if a game missed November 2014's NPD but still came somewhat close to 700k, that really makes me curious to see what the cutoff is this year.
So if a game missed November 2014's NPD but still came somewhat close to 700k, that really makes me curious to see what the cutoff is this year.
I think you're underestimating the number of quality downloadable titles last generation.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Don't know if you guys will answer this but can we have a hint about DK Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 2's ltds?
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Abdiel post if you're ok?
Doubt it would be much higher than that. There will be a massive gap between the top 3 and the rest of the Top10.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I would really like to know what this originally said.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Oh yeah, the Battlefront stuff happened today! Poor Ab...
And he still has Black Friday and Christmas
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Holy Shit we might not hear from him for some time because of all of that!
XBOX ( 2003 ) VS XBOX 360 ( 2007 ) VS XBOX ONE ( 2015 )
This month:
[360] 366,000
[XB1] 303,000
[XBOX] 176,000
2 year total:
[360] 2,589,000
[XB1] 2,273,000
[XBOX] 1,577,000
PS2 ( 2002 ) VS PS3 ( 2008 ) VS PS4 ( 2015 )
This month:
[PS2] 535,000
[PS3] 190,000
[PS4] 275,000
2 year total:
[PS2] 4,524,000
[PS3] 2,440,000
[PS4] 2,622,000
GC ( 2004 ) VS WII ( 2009 ) VS WIU ( 2015 )
This month:
[GC] 110,000
[WII] 507,000
[WIU] 65,000
3 year total:
[GC] 1,031,000
[WII] 4,523,000
[WIU] 640,000
Poor Abdiel. xD
serversurfer
Member
lol Right on. Incidentally, I don't serve the surfers; I surf the servers. A lot of people seem to mix that up.
It's really not about motives or choosing sides or anything like that. More, you're just coming off as a half-empty type of guy, primarily because you seem excessively focused on the negatives.
Oh, I hear ya. I typically feel like people don't really understand what I'm trying to say. That's a big part of the reason my posts tend to be so long! lol
Back at ya! <3
That's where you lose me. I concede that digital is difficult to accurately gauge, but what makes it irrelevant to the packaged market? If people aren't buying packaged software because they're buying it digitally instead, I'd argue that's perfectly relevant to the state of the packaged market. If people aren't buying AAA and AA games because they spent all of their money on Rocket League and Shovel Knight, I'd say that's pretty damned relevant too. Why do you feel it isn't? That's like arguing the rise of smartphones wasn't relevant in the death of handhelds. =/
Speaking of handhelds, were they included in that chart depicting the drop in retail releases? As I said, I'm not surprised those have dried up. What about context from earlier generational leaps? Seems like that would naturally cause a temporary drop in the number of releases. Am I wrong about that?
But again, so what? If the packaged market disappears entirely and is replaced by digital distribution, why should I care about that, assuming I don't own GameStop? I don't understand the significance of the distribution method, or more specifically, why packaged distribution is so important. Digital strikes me as generally better for all involved, so what are we concerned about, specifically?
Oh! Then yeah, I'd argue we can't assign any/much significance to those results without looking at digital distribution. Digital has come on fairly strong over the last few years, and was mostly unheard of in the console space when the PS3 launched. Yeah, a lot more games launched physically in the early days of the PS3, but those games were also a lot more risky for the publishers, and as your chart shows, a lot of those additional games didn't turn out to be all that hot, so maybe a lot more of them failed catastrophically. So if most or all of those "missing" games were published digitally instead this generation, then I'd argue that the industry as a whole is getting more healthy rather than less so. Can't we find and include some scores for digital-only titles before we start panicking?
Oh, I remembered something else I wanted to ask you about. So, this month, the sales for the Top 10 were comparatively anemic, yet NPD said that while handheld software was down 60% or something, overall software was only down like 3%, right? That would seem to indicate that console software was up by some non-insignificant amount, yes? So if console software is up, but sales at the top end of the spectrum are down, that means that money is being spent more on mid- and low-tier games, even at retail, which is a good thing, right? We're all agreed that the increased focused on the top end of the market has been unhealthy for the industry overall, so it seems like we should be celebrating anything that indicates a return to normalcy.
Oh, hey, that reminds me of something else I meant to ask you. lol Earlier you indicated that NPD were tight with their numbers so people don't catch on to how much the market is actually shrinking. If that's the case, then why is spending one of the few metrics they do report? Seems like if they were trying to hide a shrinking market, they'd keep the sales to themselves, and publish the Top 100 titles, focusing on how many new entries there are every month, etc.
That's what I mean; simply conceding that digital seems to be picking up some of the slack changes the tone of your post entirely.
Holy Shit we might not hear from him for some time because of all of that!
He'll show up. I just have no doubts he's busy as fuck
The Mad Draklor
Member
Well, SAO: Lost Song just came out today and we all know how much he likes Japanese games
In all seriousness, hope you're doing okay, Abdiel.
the packaged market and games at retail is sort of the heart of the dedicated hardware business. if you can just have a game available digital, it's going to make less sense to have hardware exclusively play it.