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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

hawk2025

Member
105.gif

How you figure? The sales numbers seems to indicate it sold horribly at launch.

Based on?

Hasn't Abdiel already spoken for Best Buy that Halo 5 sales dropped heavily after FO and SW?

I coulda sworn he said that.

[PS4] 1,170,000
[XB1] 1,060,000
[3DS] 500,000
[WIU] 250,000



It is dropped by a massive 78% the second week in UK.
Then, in the third week, is dropped by another 50%.

...Hemm... Where are those "strong" legs?

Ok, I deserve this because I didn't explain myself at all :p

I meant the Amazon charts, and **relative** to the low expectations after the initial performance. After the initial numbers and the UK drop, hanging in at 15 for now on the monthly is a little positive, no?
 
Ok, I deserve this because I didn't explain myself at all :p

I meant the Amazon charts, and **relative** to the low expectations after the initial performance. After the initial numbers and the UK drop, hanging in at 15 for now on the monthly is a little positive, no?
it's strange indeed.
self-reference.
I find it interesting that Halo is in the top 20 of the yearly amazon charts, 3rd best software title. (Fallout 4 PS4 at 10, Majora's Mask at 15, Halo 5 at 17).
Of cause this game is only on one platform, so all sales are concentrated on this SKU.
Nevertheless, for all this doom and gloom and mediocre numbers this astonishing.
 

Intrigue

Banned
it's strange indeed.
self-reference.

Its a title that will keep selling as people pick up xboxes, i also think a higher % than what you would expect for a AAA game did not pre-order and was waiting non media reviews showing it was not a broken piece of shit like, MCCC.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Ok, I deserve this because I didn't explain myself at all :p

I meant the Amazon charts, and **relative** to the low expectations after the initial performance. After the initial numbers and the UK drop, hanging in at 15 for now on the monthly is a little positive, no?

In UK i already said all.

About US and Amazon, with this logic Mario Maker should be a monster since is very close to Halo in the hourly and monthly.
Amazon is not THAT accurate with Software.
 

Conduit

Banned
Ok, I deserve this because I didn't explain myself at all :p

I meant the Amazon charts, and **relative** to the low expectations after the initial performance. After the initial numbers and the UK drop, hanging in at 15 for now on the monthly is a little positive, no?

Under a million with bundles in last month in NPD, Halo 5 sales effectively stopped after BLOPS 3 launch. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=184518743&postcount=1784

The lowest launch number during launch week in UK compared to all mainline Halos. 78% drop in 2nd week, 50% drop in 3rd week. Some skinny legs.
 
Oh, sorry my bad.
Well, Halo should still win by a huge margin.

If Halo sell less than Tomb Raider in November NPD... DOOMED.

Yeah. It seems like the expectations here for TR are around 200k, if Halo does less than that in november then we can start using the word "dad" seriously.
 
which should indicate that i don't think steam streams games?
Oh, sorry, I thought you were giving it as an example of a streaming service. =/

dedicated handheld systems are the most casual play-as-you-go platforms of dedicated gaming hardware just by their very nature of behind portable. what we saw with mobile wasn't that it ate the dedicate market's lunch only, but that it kind of ate into other casual franchises pretty heavily - kids games, family titles, fitness stuff - they all started to decline pretty heavily in 2011 and eventually only a few managed success to a degree on nintendo platforms where nintendo's always been strong. except minecraft. microsoft's got that shit locked down in the us (and japan on vita). this doesn't mean that handhelds and mobile devices are the same. i don't think you would count steam and playstation 4 as the same. they don't even play the same games a lot of the time, and the method of interaction is different, and the market is different for all parties involved.
Well, I wouldn't, no, but I'm a technophile who actually understands how this stuff works, so I'm a bit of a 1%er. That said, I'd bet that if you took an iPhone, a Steam Machine, a Vita, and a PS4, then said, "Group these by similarity," the other 99% of the population would pair the iPhone with the Vita, and the Steam Machine with the PS4 — once you'd explained what a Vita and a Steam Machine were, of course — and "Well, similar in what sense, exactly?" would never even occur to them. "One hooks up to the TV, and the other one goes in my pocket, right? Am I missing something here?"


Thanks.

Nope. The lower tier Wii games never sold very well, outside a couple outliers like Carnival Games.
Oh, really? I'd been told there were numerous third-party million-sellers on Wii — and that's why it had such a healthy tie ratio — but I never really cared enough to follow up on it.

The big spike was driven by the rise of Guitar Hero and Rock Band, helped by the boom of Call of Duty and the big Wii 1st party titles, and a bunch of other things.
Interesting. That's because they cranked out a bunch of releases with different collections of songs, I assume? (As opposed to selling instruments, which I assume get tracked as accessories.) How much of that stuff did they sell? Just how big is that peak, in dollars? (What exactly is the difference between spending in 2006 and spending in 2008?)

So, handhelds weren't a significant part of the spike? I noticed a few interesting landmarks…
NPD_Software.jpg

To me, that looks very much like we're charting the rise and fall of the DS here. So, is there any chance we can see some charts without the handheld data included? You say that if we want to understand what's happening to the forest, we need to go down and examine the trees. Then could we maybe do that, please? Yes, the forest is smaller now, but we have no idea which trees we've even lost. Or rather, we know the handheld trees got choked out by the mobile trees, but there's no way for me to determine how many handheld trees we even started with. So how can we say anything at all about the relative health of the console trees, when we have no baseline to work from?

Oh, that reminds me. NPD said handheld software spending dropped significantly last quarter which implies that console spending was up, given that overall spending was fairly stable. Did you ever have a chance to verify that? I'm really at a loss to explain why we're discussing the health of the console market without actually examining it. =/

The sales curve was bound at some point to regress to the mean, especially when it became clear that Dance/Music was a fad. But now sales have regressed below the mean, based on publishers reducing release counts to below market demand levels. I also think once more titles enter the market, consumer sales will return to the long-term mean.
Sorry, what does that mean? Anyway, it's hard to say with the handheld data mixed in, but it wouldn't surprise me if retail console spending was down. There's been a lot of substitutive spending with smaller games moving to purely digital distribution, and I'm still fairly convinced that the 20% of the full-game console market that's on digital now isn't (almost) purely incremental. I wish I knew why you thought that. =/

I just think it might. Or it might not. I have no idea. It's possible.
Well, fair enough. I suppose just about anything is possible, yes.

At an individual level, sure. However you can only apply this to the total market if you assume that the number of consumers in the market is static. However, the data suggests to me that enough consumers are buying Digital that would not buy New Packaged, or that there are more of these people being added to the pie than the substitute customers remove. The addressable market "pie" is getting bigger with Digital. Digital is not primarily taking away from the Packaged sales pie, it's adding to the total pie of addressable consumers.
Sorry, I'm really trying, but why is that, and/or what do you mean, exactly? I wasn't assuming a static market size. Let's stick with the Star Wars hypothetical. We have 8M physical sales, and 2M digital sales. Now, of those 2M digital sales, you have some portion who'd planned to buy the game physically but opted for digital instead, and the rest who originally had no intention of buying the game simply because it involved leaving the house, but now that it doesn't, they're on board too.

And the pie grows by the size of that latter portion, yes? So if 500k only bought the game because they didn't need to leave home, and the other 1500k simply opted for digital because they found it more attractive than the disc — which seems like kind of a fine hair to be splitting in the first place, frankly — then we have 500k incremental sales, and 1500k substitutional. So the market isn't static, because we added 500k sales by offering a digital option; the static portion of the market is the portion undergoing substitutional sales, and even it isn't really static, because markets grow and shrink all the time. (Right?? Am I really still not understanding this? =/)

But you're saying that the number of substitutional sales within that 2M is so small as to be "meaningless"? I'd have guessed it was the people who were too lazy to go out initially that were meaningless, if anyone.

Or, a different way of putting it, think of the number of opportunities to buy. With just Packaged, a person has the opportunity to buy while in a store, or while browsing a retailer website or App. With Digital, the number of opportunities to buy are increased pretty significantly, especially for Core games who spend a lot of time on the box. Additional, incremental, sales result from more opportunities to buy.
Hmm. Do digital sales tend to have a long tail? You say there's lots of opportunity to buy because people spend so much more time in the on-console storefronts — I didn't know that was necessarily true either, actually — but I thought digital sales tended to be even more front-loaded than physical, with most digital buyers taking advantage of pre-loading, etc. I figured that's why 35% of your sales may be digital on launch day, but already down to 25% by the end of the week. So yeah, it seems like physical is getting a lot more "troll the store and see if there's anything good out"-type sales. Those who buy digitally seem kinda laser-focused, by comparison.* Is that not the case?

*That's actually why I wondered if the core tended to more heavily invested in digital than casuals; seems like where all the truly leet folk are. Fuck Day One; Minute One, baby.

I don't care if anyone cares about it. NPD tracks Packaged sales. We talk about Packaged sales. The Packaged market is relevant to these conversations. You don't have to care about it if you don't want to.
Well, fair enough. Sorry, I realize this is the NPD thread. I think most just think of it as "the numbers thread," and really care more about the overall health of the industry — or at least, the health of their favorite supplier — than they do what fraction of games are being sold through GameStop versus sold directly on PSN. Maybe that's just me though. /shrug Anyway, sorry, I didn't mean to derail the thread or anything.

Sure, other people buy Packaged exclusively. Variety is the spice, or something.
Doesn't make it any less of a waste. :p

They really can't. At least not yet.
Err, under no circumstances? Why do you say that? =/

Not when hard data exists that suggests that per title sales aren't dropping.
Well, not to piss you off or anything, but perhaps digital factors in here? I don't really know what numbers you're referring to, but you say they're not dropping. Growth is what's normally expected, right? So if per-title sales are flat, then maybe substitution is happening at roughly the previous rate of growth? Sorry, it's hard for me to be any more specific, since I'm not seeing what you're seeing, so I'm not entirely sure what needs 'splainin here.

Nope. Not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that digital is allowing more customers more opportunities to buy. A customer base is not a zero sum game. You offer people more places to buy, with more convenience, and more promotion, more customers will enter the market and more sales will result.
Okay, so the digital market is 25% the size of the physical market (by unit). That strikes me as a fuckton of additional sales — far too many to be merely incremental — but you say it's basically purely incremental, and the number of substitutional sales within that 25% is "meaningless within the data." So, you say there's not a meaningful number of "switchers" within that 25%. Is that correct?

That's the conventional wisdom. I think the conventional wisdom is wrong. Plenty of people may disagree (it is the conventional wisdom, after all) but I'm pretty confident in my position.
Oh, so you don't think we'll be at 40% digital in 3-4 years? Will we ever be? Do you also dispute the 20% digital figure?

Not without showing data I cannot show, unfortunately.
That's too bad. Thanks again for everything you have been able to share, and in advance for anything you can share in the future. Much appreciated. <3

Thinking along these same lines, and not being afraid of making more packaged games, has worked out pretty darn well for some pubs this year.
Well, sure. A physical release still gives your product a lot of additional exposure, so if your game turns out to be a hit, gambling on a physical release at launch can really be a windfall. On the other hand, if like most games, yours only turns out to be a moderate success, the additional costs and lower margins of a physical launch can more easily break you.

A physical release might be a big win, but it's guaranteed to be a big risk. If you've got a big budget and an IP known to be popular, then by all means, you should do a physical release. However, the more niche and/or unproven your product is, you may be better off testing the waters with a comparatively low-risk, high-profit digital release, and then plan from there if you should happen to find success.

Is that what you meant by devs not being able to find "more" success by avoiding physical? Because whatever the risks to their business that decision may involve, the potential payout will always be higher if you add a physical release?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Yeah. It seems like the expectations here for TR are around 200k, if Halo does less than that in november then we can start using the word "dad" seriously.

I predict 300k for Tomb Raider. Still, under that is seriusly brutal.

I think it should sell at very least 500 / 550k.
 

Akara

Banned
came here to find Disgaea sales, wasn't disappointed. Keep it up Disgaea, hopefully those digital sales slammed it home charting.
 

Javin98

Banned
You know a hell of a lot more about salesGAF than I do, that's for sure :)

Anyone else wanna chime in? Start the speculation?
These are my current predictions for November and will still likely change in the predictions thread. After all, a very large amount of sales in November comes from Black Friday.
PS4: 1.2 million
XB1: 1 million
3DS: 450K
Wii U: 250K
 

freefornow

Member
These are my current predictions for November and will still likely change in the predictions thread. After all, a very large amount of sales in November comes from Black Friday.
PS4: 1.2 million
XB1: 1 million
3DS: 450K
Wii U: 250K

I'm thinking a little more conservatively (due to all the YOY decline talk).

PS4: 860K
XB1: 940K
3DS: 230K
Wii U: 150K

Yes, I'm tipping XB1 to lead. MS is a proud company in their home territory. I feel announcements leading up to the day.
 
I'm thinking a little more conservatively (due to all the YOY decline talk).

PS4: 860K
XB1: 940K
3DS: 230K
Wii U: 150K

Yes, I'm tipping XB1 to lead. MS is a proud company in their home territory. I feel announcements leading up to the day.

No way. Months of preorders on BF bundles? CoD up YoY? Huge current gen only releases like Fallout 4 and Battlefront? $299 consoles? There's no way PS4 comes in under a million, dude.
 

Wagram

Member
Even though this has nothing to do with October. I'm surprised we haven't heard any PR on Battlefront as of yet. I wonder if it's been a bit soft, or perhaps maybe it's still too early.
 

xehanort

Member
Even though this has nothing to do with October. I'm surprised we haven't heard any PR on Battlefront as of yet. I wonder if it's been a bit soft, or perhaps maybe it's still too early.

I think they will release it 1 week after release. IIRC, BO3 and Fallout 4 did theirs 1 week after right?
 

Javin98

Banned
I'm thinking a little more conservatively (due to all the YOY decline talk).

PS4: 860K
XB1: 940K
3DS: 230K
Wii U: 150K

Yes, I'm tipping XB1 to lead. MS is a proud company in their home territory. I feel announcements leading up to the day.
You can't be serious? PS4 barely up YoY despite some great bundles and current gen only games that will attract the mainstream gamers? I think the XB1 will definitely be down YoY but by that much? Something must be really wrong with the industry if the consoles sell this little for November. Also, all signs point to a PS4 win right now.
 
I'd say at a minimum PS4 has to beat Xbox One's November 2014 in order to be considered decent.

Well Xbones November was better than decent. It was damn amazing. If PS4 clears 1 million that should be considered "decent". Maybe not good per se but ok. I agree if it can get to 1.2 and up that would qualify as a damn good performance.
 

Javin98

Banned
Does anyone have the sales numbers of consoles from previous generations in November to compare? I'm particularly interested to see how the Wii and PS2 did in their respective third November's.
 

Welfare

Member
Does anyone have the sales numbers of consoles from previous generations in November to compare? I'm particularly interested to see how the Wii and PS2 did in their respective third November's.

Consoles 3rd Novembers

PS2 (2002): 1,284,000
Xbox (2003): 490,000
Gamecube (2003): 754,000

Xbox 360 (2007): 770,000
PS3 (2008): 378,000
Wii (2008): 2,040,000
 

Javin98

Banned
Consoles 3rd Novembers

PS2 (2002): 1,284,000
Xbox (2003): 490,000
Gamecube (2003): 754,000

Xbox 360 (2007)): 770,000
PS3 (2008): 378,000
Wii (2008): 2,040,000
Goddamn, the Wii did unbelievably amazing numbers in its third November. No other consoles will come close to that figure. I wonder if the PS4 can match or exceed what the PS2 did in its third November, though. One thing's for sure ; both the XB1 and PS4 will surpass their predecessors in sales compared to their respective third November's.
 
Well Xbones November was better than decent. It was damn amazing. If PS4 clears 1 million that should be considered "decent". Maybe not good per se but ok. I agree if it can get to 1.2 and up that would qualify as a damn good performance.

Both consoles will do over a million. I'm quite confident. And I think anything over a million is a great success.

But yeah, I can absolutely see 1.2 million for PS4.
 
Goddamn, the Wii did unbelievably amazing numbers in its third November. No other consoles will come close to that figure. I wonder if the PS4 can match or exceed what the PS2 did in its third November, though. One thing's for sure ; both the XB1 and PS4 will surpass their predecessors in sales compared to their respective third November's.

Yeah if the PS4 can manage to hit 1.2ish it will put in PS2 territory which should be considered a huge success. We'll see if it happens but its certainly doable imo
 
The thing about comparisons to previous gens is that iirc, December sales have shifted to November lately.

I'm not sure when this trend started, I think it was halfway through last gen?
 

Javin98

Banned
Yeah if the PS4 can manage to hit 1.2ish it will put in PS2 territory which should be considered a huge success. We'll see if it happens but its certainly doable imo
1.2 million should be achievable for the PS4 this month, considering that those Battlefront bundles had months of pre orders and are now flying off shelves according to our fellow insiders, the Uncharted bundle being $299 for BF and several current gen only AAA games that attract the casuals launching in November. If the sales are significantly less than 1.2 million, I think we can say that sales from October weren't postponed to November.

The thing about comparisons to previous gens is that iirc, December sales have shifted to November lately.

I'm not sure when this trend started, I think it was halfway through last gen?
Yeah, this is another thing to keep in mind. Perhaps we should compare the sales of both months when we get all the details to see how well the PS4 and XB1 will do.
 

Javin98

Banned
No it didn't. Those are just casually ridiculous numbers. For "unbelievably amazing", I suggest you look up Wii's fourth November.
LOL, "unbelievably amazing" can vary for people with different expectations. For me, 2 million in November is pretty damn impressive and is far ahead of any other console. So, yes, I think "unbelievably amazing" is appropriate. Now if the Wii's fourth November is much higher than that, I would call it "out of this world amazing". :p
 

RexNovis

Banned
Ok, I deserve this because I didn't explain myself at all :p

I meant the Amazon charts, and **relative** to the low expectations after the initial performance. After the initial numbers and the UK drop, hanging in at 15 for now on the monthly is a little positive, no?

Please learn from my tag: Amazon is not at all reliable as a software sales metric and should never be used as one. Yes even yearly charts. Just don't.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Yes, I'm tipping XB1 to lead. MS is a proud company in their home territory. I feel announcements leading up to the day.

"Pride and Passion" byPhil Spencer. From the man who brought you "It has a Duration" and "The Illusive Exclusive Comma" comes the story of a young console with its head in the cloud seeking the right owner. Will it be the successful middle aged salaryman/woman with the disposable income to spare, the adventurous college student with the desire to explore new worlds, or the bright eyed immature newcomer with something to prove? There's no telling what sort of entanglements unfold, flurries of uppercuts are thrown and webs are spun when the true pride and passion of the one and only all in one entertainment center comes to a store near you this holiday season.

i was bored... Honestly it couldn't be helped once the idea took root
 
"Pride and Passion" byPhil Spencer. From the man who brought you "It has a Duration" and "The Illusive Exclusive Comma" comes the story of a young console with its head in the cloud seeking the right owner. Will it be the successful middle aged salaryman/woman with the disposable income to spare, the adventurous college student with the desire to explore new worlds, or the bright eyed immature newcomer with something to prove? There's no telling what sort of entanglements unfold, flurries of uppercuts are thrown and webs are spun when the true pride and passion of the one and only all in one entertainment center comes to a store near you this holiday season.

i was bored... Honestly it couldn't be helped once the idea took root

10/10. I want you writing material for the website immediately.
 
http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/20/xbo...counts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Black Friday Deals: $299 Xbox One Consoles, 150+ Discounted Games and Gold for $1!

Here are the deals you need to know about:

From Thursday, Nov. 26 through Monday, Nov. 30 in the U.S., select console bundles will be available starting at $299, the lowest price ever for Xbox One. You can also save $50 on any of our 12 Xbox One holiday bundles:

Xbox One Limited Edition Halo 5: Guardians Bundle
Xbox One Elite Bundle
Xbox One 1TB Holiday Bundle
Xbox One Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
Xbox One Fallout 4 Bundle
Xbox One The LEGO Movie Videogame Bundle
Xbox One Rise of the Tomb Raider Bundle
Xbox One FIFA 16 1TB Bundle
Xbox One Special Edition Gears of War Bundle
Xbox One with Kinect Bundle
Xbox One Limited Edition Forza Motorsport 6 Console (Nearly sold out)
Xbox One Madden NFL 16 Bundle (Nearly sold out)



They seem to be going all in for Black Friday.
 

GobFather

Member
"Pride and Passion" byPhil Spencer. From the man who brought you "It has a Duration" and "The Illusive Exclusive Comma" comes the story of a young console with its head in the cloud seeking the right owner. Will it be the successful middle aged salaryman/woman with the disposable income to spare, the adventurous college student with the desire to explore new worlds, or the bright eyed immature newcomer with something to prove? There's no telling what sort of entanglements unfold, flurries of uppercuts are thrown and webs are spun when the true pride and passion of the one and only all in one entertainment center comes to a store near you this holiday season.

i was bored... Honestly it couldn't be helped once the idea took root
this is actually pretty good lol, I hope you are bored more often lol
 

gtj1092

Member
Does anyone think Sony missed an opportunity not advertising the price of their bundles. Seems as if though they are trying to just advertise brand so they could sell at any price but I feel they should make it more known they have lowered the price.
 

Markoman

Member
"Pride and Passion" byPhil Spencer. From the man who brought you "It has a Duration" and "The Illusive Exclusive Comma" comes the story of a young console with its head in the cloud seeking the right owner. Will it be the successful middle aged salaryman/woman with the disposable income to spare, the adventurous college student with the desire to explore new worlds, or the bright eyed immature newcomer with something to prove? There's no telling what sort of entanglements unfold, flurries of uppercuts are thrown and webs are spun when the true pride and passion of the one and only all in one entertainment center comes to a store near you this holiday season.

i was bored... Honestly it couldn't be helped once the idea took root

Do you sell snake-oil???
 
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