I think Battlefront will boost PS4 in December more than in November.
Remember, the movie will start the "Star Wars mania".
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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I think Battlefront will boost PS4 in December more than in November.
Remember, the movie will start the "Star Wars mania".
Star Wars mania is going to start next week. They've only run <10% of their ad campaign so far, it's supposed to go into high gear over Thanksgiving.
For the PS4, given that it's bundled with a 1st party and 500gb, no loss or very little, even at $299.
For the XB1, I expect the 500gb GeoW just about breaks even too at $349 (Phil Spencer seems to indicate so), small loss at $299 but I think they've really been breaking the bank with the amount of free third party games tbh (not as much as last year though).
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I'm sorry but what this holiday is the X1 doing WORSE than last? I mean even if your PS4 gap is correct both numbers should be over 1.2 because even the PS4 had a better line-up than last year.
Because the price after 1 year is still the same.
Because last year XB1 got the Call of Duty marketing and this time they haven't.
Because last year XB1 got the insane Unity bundle and this time all XB1 bundle are pretty meh.
Because last year PS4 was not competitive, this time it is.
Sorry, but i really don't see XB1 up YOY. And i don't even think PS4 will beat XB1 2014.
Beautiful Ninja
Member
I don't think X1 is nearly as appealing this year over last. It was 50-70 dollars cheaper than PS4 straight up, on top of having ridiculous extra add in value on top of it. It felt like everyone was throwing in another game on top of that along with a gift card. This year PS4 and XB1 have price parity and the only notable difference I see in the BF bundles are a couple of stores are throwing in a gift card with the XB1. At the same price with no real advantage in bundle in favor of XB1, I could see it easily dropping big time this holiday.
Boombloxer
Member
More than that. Price parity has been a losing proposition for them for a while now. Last year, they went the opposite direction and had marketing bundles to drive home support.
This year, there might not be enough to really push it past the PS4 again, especially with price. Price is basically the #1 factor around the holidays, and especially with the greater market.
And at least for me, it's not as high, but relative to last year. So slight decline, but nothing crazy. I more expect the PS4 to consume more new consumers vs transitional folks.
DriftingSpirit
Member
X1 dropping this year would be more of a testament to how crazy last year was rather than an indication of this year being poor. I think X1 will put up respectable numbers regardless of their position to PS4 for this holiday.
Pretty much this imo as well.
Xbox is nowhere as competitive as it was last year.
I think they'll lose both Nov and December if the prices stay as they are.
Mister Megative
Banned
Dude, chill out.
Welfare
Member
If the Xbox One can't be up YOY in November like they have been in every other month this year except for March, with Black Ops 3, Fallout 4, and Battlefront, plus being $299 on Black Friday, that's a problem.
If the PS4, this generation's market leader, can't beat the Xbox One's second November at the same price, with a CoD bundle with the biggest CoD brand, Fallout 4, and Battlefront bundles, plus being $299 on Black Friday, that's a serious problem.
Anything less than 1.23 million for either console this November should be worrying.
If the PS4, this generation's market leader, can't beat the Xbox One's second November at the same price, with a CoD bundle with the biggest CoD brand, Fallout 4, and Battlefront bundles, plus being $299 on Black Friday, that's a serious problem.
Anything less than 1.23 million for either console this November should be worrying.
Nah, i don't see nothing of bad.
Those are the bigger November of all times:
1) 2,040,000 ( WII, 2008)
2) 1,700,000 ( DS; 2009)
2) 1,700,000 ( 360; 2011)
4) 1,570,000 (DS; 2008)
5) 1,540,000 (DS; 2007)
6) 1,500,000 (DS; 2010)
7) 1,370,000 (360; 2010)
8) 1,323,000 (GBA; 2003)
9) 1,318,000 (PS2; 2002)
10) 1,283,000 (GBA; 2002)
11) 1,270,000 (WII; 2010)
12) 1,260,000 (WII; 2009)
12) 1,260,000 (360; 2012)
14) 1,230,000 ( XB1; 2014)
We can say that the only consoles which beated those numbers are WII, DS, PS2, GBA, and the 360, and all those 5 consoles were absolutely beasting in the US.
So, i think we should be worry with < 1 million, but under 1.23 million isn't bad.
Imo
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Xbox One was cheaper every month this entire year over the previous year, except for November and December. It'll be the same 350 dollars it was last November and December, excluding Black Friday sales which in themselves are only 30 dollars cheaper than last year, but with 1 pack in game instead of 2 and generally worse individual retailer promotions than last year.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I have to disagree.
I do think PS4 should be on par with what X1 did last year but X1 being down wouldn't be anything mind boggling.
It's really unlikely that XB1 won't be down yoy. Last year the console was at 329$ with two games and gift cards everywhere. Even 75$ gift cards. This year can't stand the comparison and it's a full year later.
And it will be hard for PS4 to do better than XB1 last year as well.
My guess is 1m for X1 and 1.2m for PS4.
We'll see with the BF reports though.
Welfare
Member
I don't know, if the Xbox One can't sell more in November this year than last year with a much better line up, that would look bad in terms of performance.
And I'm not saying these consoles should be doing stuff like 1.5 million or above to be good, it's that in the 3rd year of sales, these consoles should be doing more than what was achieved last year, especially the PS4 seeing as this is the first holiday month at $349 and October was pretty bad for a price drop.
And I'm not saying these consoles should be doing stuff like 1.5 million or above to be good, it's that in the 3rd year of sales, these consoles should be doing more than what was achieved last year, especially the PS4 seeing as this is the first holiday month at $349 and October was pretty bad for a price drop.
I don't think so, sales must be put in context. Every console has a better lineup a year later but that doesn't necessarily translate to yoy growth.
XB1 had an exceptional November last year because they took exceptional measures to save the system. It can't be considered a ''normal'' November performance and can't be compared to this year where they're focusing on profits and playing it safe. If Microsoft was playing for marketshare they would have cut to 299$ for all the holiday season with 350$ Halo 5 bundles. They decided not to do it.
If they both sell less than a million that would be disappointing (like October part two).
slavesnyder
Member
I like this line of thinking. It offers clear goals and some pressure.
And honestly I agree:
If last November's Xbox is the best this generation has to offer, this would be very, very boring.
At least Ps4 has to beat it. Black Friday, 2 bundles with heavy preorders, price drop and so on. Low October I could excuse with the.preorders and BF anticipation, but in November the pie has to be a big one.
I'm not anticipating YOY growth for the Xbox One. If it happens, that in and of itself will be remarkably worth celebrating for Microsoft, I should think. I doubt it'll do terribly, but I doubt even more that it'll do better.
Some more anecdotal evidence that Battlefront isn't grabbing the mindshare some had anticipated (yet, anyway): during my Redbox sale hunts last night and today, I've visited dozens of locations. Most were sold out on Black Ops 3 and Fallout 4; none were sold out on Battlefront.
Some more anecdotal evidence that Battlefront isn't grabbing the mindshare some had anticipated (yet, anyway): during my Redbox sale hunts last night and today, I've visited dozens of locations. Most were sold out on Black Ops 3 and Fallout 4; none were sold out on Battlefront.
CosmicQueso
Member
After putting in about 10 hours on Rise of the Tomb Raider, gotta say I'm more into this game than I've been anything since TLOU.
It's a shame and borderline criminal they sent this game out to die. It's beautifully crafted, the story and voice acting are really good so far, it's just a great game, most likey my GoTY.
Why didn't they just hold the game until February or something. Such a shame.
It's a shame and borderline criminal they sent this game out to die. It's beautifully crafted, the story and voice acting are really good so far, it's just a great game, most likey my GoTY.
Why didn't they just hold the game until February or something. Such a shame.
Welfare
Member
I'll break this up.
Like, with Black Ops 2, less people bought the PS360 because the type of gamer that would buy those consoles for that game would've already bought the consoles when CoD 4, MW2, WAW, MW3, and BO1 came out. After a period of time, the amount of selling power a game would have dwindles when in the years prior, a consumer's needs were already being fulfilled.
The Xbox One has only been out for 2 years. That effect should not be happening yet.
This will probably the peak holiday for both systems because of the low cost of entry and the games that have launched (BO3, Fallout, and Battlefront) pushing 7th gen owners to picking up the consoles. Will these games have less drawing power than AW, Unity, and HD ports (GTA and MCC)? I don't see that.
This is definitely true, however, this is because as the generation goes, consoles already have games that would bring consumers over to begin with.
Like, with Black Ops 2, less people bought the PS360 because the type of gamer that would buy those consoles for that game would've already bought the consoles when CoD 4, MW2, WAW, MW3, and BO1 came out. After a period of time, the amount of selling power a game would have dwindles when in the years prior, a consumer's needs were already being fulfilled.
The Xbox One has only been out for 2 years. That effect should not be happening yet.
Alright, so then begs the question. Is the Xbox One in such a bad position in the US that it can only hit 1.2m with fire sale-like deals? The console should be selling itself at this point after 2014 and MS should not need to do insane deals for it to sell well every holiday.
This will probably the peak holiday for both systems because of the low cost of entry and the games that have launched (BO3, Fallout, and Battlefront) pushing 7th gen owners to picking up the consoles. Will these games have less drawing power than AW, Unity, and HD ports (GTA and MCC)? I don't see that.
Less than 1 million for either console in November is like red alarm flashing bad after October.
But so Welfare, what are you're predictions for both PS4 and XB1?
I personally predict 1.05-1.10m for XB1 and 1.15-1.20m for PS4.
Gotta disagree with the first paragraph, man. The main reason the XB1 sold as well as it did last November was because Microsoft had truly insane bundles, some of which offered up to $70 price advantage over the PS4, plus a gift card, so effectively over $100. This time around, the cheapest SKU's for both consoles are priced at $299 for BF. The XB1 does have gift cards in some retailers, but I don't think it's enough to make a significant difference.
I agree with the second paragraph, though. If the PS4 still can't beat the XB1 with all the marketing deals and bundles, something is very wrong. But I think it's very unlikely for the XB1 to win, unless it does really well during BF.
Welfare
Member
But so Welfare, what are you're predixtions for both PS4 and XB1?
I personally predict 1.05-1.10m for XB1 and 1.15-1.20m for PS4.
Month is still going on so I have not put that much thought into it, but I guess both to be around 1.3m with the PS4 having some type of lead.
So do you think 1.23 million will be the biggest November for the Xbox One? More people should be interested in the console now than in 2014.
Final Verdict
Member
Ehhhh, I don't think so.
Xbox one has been up YOY every month this year mainly because they had a $50 price cut which put them $50 cheaper than the PS4 most of the year, plus they have heavily bundled alongside that.
Whereas last year, they started the year at $100 more than the competition.
If you just compare the holidays though, they are the same as last year price wise ($350), and actually more than that if you want a bundle with some of the big third party games such as Fallout 4 and Tomb Raider ($400), not to mention that they no longer have a price advantage over their competition like last year, and do not have any of the big marketing deals sans Fallout 4. (last year they had Cod & ACU).
So I could easily see XB1 being down YoY in November.
But I do agree with you that if PS4 does not win big this month, then that would spell a bigger problem for Sony (though I highly doubt this could happen).
and honestly at some point you just hit a threshold. I'd say 1.5 million is probably the absolute most a console could potentially hit in November
all the bundles have a $50 price cut during Black Friday. So gears will be $299 and holiday, tomb raider and fallout are $350
It honestly depends, next November will probably be bigger than this November, but I don't know if it will outsell 2014. There are too many variables to say right now. We don't know what games will be out next November and which company will be marketing those games and what bundles will be offered. I'm not even sure which year I think will be the peak year for the XB1, but it's either this year or the next. Anyway, 1.23 million is still pretty impressive for a console which will likely remain in second place and the bar is quite hard to beat.
I think Sony and Microsoft are quite happy to coast this period and not battle it out too much. They've probably squeezed as much profit out of the current boxes until they can get the slim iterations out some time around E3 or after summer. Until then, it's value bundles, subscribers and lastly ramping down and clearance of stock before a slim introduction which should see sales jump at a cheaper price that still makes them a good margin.
Final Verdict
Member
I agree!
I'm about 12 or so hours in, and it isn't perfect, but one of the best single player games I'v played in a long time...
Hope the ending is good
Aceofspades
Banned
I agree with you. PS4/X1 selling slightly more than a million is acceptable giving that their sales should eat into each other.
I mean we rarely have both consoles selling more than a million in the US, Wii and 360 both had their best performing Nov to themselves.
CosmicQueso
Member
All I can think of while playing it is how much care, energy and effort went into the design and art and how it's getting so sadly ignored.
Man I hope they find some way of getting this game in people's hands because, like you said, it absolutely is one of the best single player games in memory.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Kinda crazy how PS2 never had a million-plus November during its run :/
Final Verdict
Member
Yeah, yeah, I am aware of BF deals....X1 is $30 cheaper than last year for BF, so I still expect it to do well on BF, but I expect it to be down for the rest of the month.
Yup.
I was thinking about how much people liked the Reboot, and I did too, but just comparing the two....RotTR is a step up in just about every single aspect of the game from the last one.
I hope MS decides to make it their main bundle for next spring because people need to play this game!
#9
That said, Decembers were bigger in the PS2's hey day. Now December is barely bigger than November. A 25-30% bump would be pretty good. PS2 did 2.7M in Dec 2002. So 4M between Nov and Dec.
It's in TOP 10 bro.
9) 1,318,000 (PS2; 2002)
That said, those were old times. Is true that PS2 Novembers didn't seem "that high", but if you look some Decembers...
Dec 2001 - 1,971,000
Dec 2002 - 2,733,000
Dec 2003 - 1,970,000
Those numbers are impossible for PS4 / XB1 for example... One time December was much bigger than November, now the sales aren't that difference.
Mister Megative
Banned
But so Welfare, what are you're predictions for both PS4 and XB1?
I personally predict 1.05-1.10m for XB1 and 1.15-1.20m for PS4.
I agree with your predictions, and I think those are fine, healthy numbers. What's your metric?
In what sense "metric" ?
Not sure there's ever been anything quite like it in terms of a AAA title handled so badly release wise it's as if it was some C grade library filler.
It's a damn oddity how it's all played out for TR:Rise so far. Guess we've got 12 months to go to find out how the whole deal and staggered release worked out.
Mister Megative
Banned
Ah, I just mean what are you basing your predictions on?
Well, there isn't much to say.
PS4:
It will definitive have a bigger holidays than last year.
Why i don't think will sell at XB1 2014 levels ( even if there is a chance ):
Even if many people are waiting for the Black Friday, we already saw the price drop effect with PS4 for a intere month all considering... that's not what's happened with XB1, the pricedrop is happened THE FIRST DAY of the NPD November of last year. So, of course the boost was way bigger.
Also, it was a temporaney (and false) pricedrop, so, people were fast to buy a XB1 in Nov / Dec... that's not PS4 case, since this is a permanent pricedrop.
About XB1, it has not the insane bundles of last year, i don't think the $299 price in Black Friday will be bigger than the Unity bundle at $329 with 3 games, and has not the Call of Duty marketing... But in others world, i don't see XB1 beat PS4 with COD / SW marketing, and since i believe PS4 will not sell at XB1 2014 level, here we go with XB1 down YOY.
Those are just my opinion, we will see.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
1). It will still be cheaper than PS4
2). Because they have Halo?
3). Tomb Raider bundle is even better than Unity. The game have reviewed well and word of mouth is great
4). That doesn't make Xbox sales low. Xbox is being even more competitive than last year with great holiday games
1) But not like last year.
2) Halo sales were very disappointed.
3) Just wut?
4) That's make the XB1 lower than what could be with PS4 not competitive.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
1) But not like last year.
2) Halo sales were very disappointed.
3) Just wut?
4) That's make the XB1 lower than what could be with PS4 not competitive.
1). it will still be like last year. even more cheaper. 300$ with gift cards, free games.
2). huh? the fuck does that mean? Last year COD sales were down too compare to other COD games. So? Halo will still sell, and will be a compelling reason for 360 owners to jump and get Xbox one this holiday.
3). wut?
4). again wut?
1) No, because both will be at $299 during Black Friday
2) Hemm, dude, CoD YOY drop was -22% last year, with the game which still sold 4.7 compared to the 6 millions of Ghost. Halo drop was -70%, with under 1 million sales compared to the usually >3 millions. There are some differences here...
3 and 4 ) I think we are done here.
It's more competitive in your eyes, it's definitely not more competitive in the general sense. Price parity will decimate the XB1 - I mean there is something wrong (there is plenty wrong but not that big of a wrong) with Sony's marketing if it doesn't. It's definitely not going to do last years numbers and by all accounts it's safe to say PS4 has this month and next month on lock. Nonetheless I expect people to slowly grasp reality when the XB1 starts cracking up during the early months of 2016. The march coming up is/should be 100k least in favor of the PS4. Compared to whatever we got this October for example.
Last year had a $349 bundle with a $50 gift card for the XB1 during Black Friday when the best PS4 had to offer was that GTAV remaster bundle with TLOU remaster thrown in for $399. That's going to make a bigger impact than the differences this year.
Just back from your ban and back to making ridiculous statements already? No need to act so defensively, no one said the XB1 will do badly, it will most likely be down YOY.
I disagree for the simple reason that their November last year was inflated by sales that should have occured in October '14.
There was a reason why their October was so low then (about 160k), they announced a killer $399 bundle for early November (ACU+ ACBF for free) as early as mid October 14, and then during the last week of October they announced the $50 price drop, effective on that bundle.
This year, no price drop. The only possible boost vs last year would be Halo 5 (and $299 for BF), and given October '15 NPD I have my doubts.
In short, I think the XB1 will be quite down YoY but should still break 1m units (if well under 1m with Halo, Then there's a problem imo).
As per the PS4, I expect 1.2m, but I don't think 1.4m- 1.5m is necessarily out of reach.