Holyshit, does this mean I can get the halo bundle for 299$?
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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Holyshit, does this mean I can get the halo bundle for 299$?
You might even say it's the best faux book pitch on the 66th page of a November 2015 NPD results thread!
No but I did sell vacuum cleaners door to door one summer. It sucked.
Boredom + spirits. Always a fun time. ok for real I'll stop now
Nightengale
Member
STARTING at $299
Yea it still floors me how many bundles they are putting out. 12 separate bundles is just absolute overkill IMO. Honestly I think it will only serve to confuse the average consumer even more than they already are. Especially given the large variation in pricing betwixt them.
slavesnyder
Member
Channel stuffing and shelf space conquering
theoretically not un-clever, but not very convenient to produce and manage.
Also a problem: If a retailer order all 12 bundles in smaller amount and in the end all customers want only two or three of them you are double-fucked.
no stock of the wanted
overstock of the unwanted
Imo Amazon is a good sample of what will be (is) popular in terms of bundles for the Holidays...
1- GeoW bundle
2- Fallout4 bundle
3- Holiday bundle
4- Halo5 bundle
slavesnyder
Member
Well, if some retailer ordered huge amounts of Lego, Tomb Raider or Kinect it's darvinism anyway.
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
12 bundles? Has this ever been done before? MS might beat Sony again if Sony isn't aggressive like MS is (with prices, not having this many bundles lol)
Only a handful of those are at the $299 price point on Black Friday. The rest are just discounted by $50 over the previous MSRP.
MS has become so used to spinning things even their Black Friday ads need explanation.
Aye.
Still scratching my head about the Lego bundle in particular... Seemed to me it was a dead giveaway that they were going to go to a wide $299 for two months during the Holidays... But no.
Crimson_Gold
Member
I think the division went all out last year and weren't afforded the budget to do those types of deals again. After seeing all of the gains made last holiday slip away,it became clear that a fire sale wouldn't help much this year.
The numerous bundles are an attempt to appeal to the many different demographics out there. It seems a bit overzealous and misguided. We shall see how the holiday season goes, but I don't expect much traction to be gained. Traction meaning putting a dent in Sony's lead
Nightengale
Member
Yeah, at this stage, it's pretty clear MS wasn't given the blank cheque they had last year to go crazy ala AssCreed 329-349 bundles.
TR should have been that bundle (500GB bundle instead of the 1TB model and not exclusive to BB) but alas it was not meant to be.
No inside knowledge at all, just speculation. I wonder if last year they were worried about install base and getting their doors completely blown off in the USA after Sept PS4 sales. (They knew WW was altogether screwed)
This year they are "ok" enough where they are at (in the US) and want to maximize returns.
Just speculation
I believe that last year was seen as a chance to catch up and generate enough momentum to then overtake the PS4 in the US. When sales nose-dived when the promo price ended (as they seemed to by all accounts) and MS had to drop the price permanently then saw PS4 make up most of its lead again I suspect it was agreed at MS there was no point throwing away profits chasing a goal they might not even attain.
I think, particularly given Nadella's statements, that their focus will be more slow/steady going forward with less crazy deals and attempts to catch up fast. They know WW they're coming second and they're probably coming close second in US too so better to consolidate a good reputation, recover and protect brand and generate profit vs chasing number one in US at any cost.
Obliterator
Member
All these negative posts about MS Holiday strategy and yet their November is going to be awesome
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
I think it's more along the lines "they should have done so much better". It's the 8/10 game you're so disappointed in because it wasn't 10/10.
Darth Smurf X
Member
While I thoroughly enjoyed It Has a Duration, The Illusive Exclusive Comma was a bit misleading. I was expecting one thing from the description on the back cover, but the book was about something completely different. I'll still probably read Pride and Passion, but I'm pretty sure I'll only finish about 1% of it and will buy it digitally like 8 of my other friends.
It will but is having 12 bundles really going to make much difference if they just focused on 3 or 4?
I've always said that there's no need for MS to do deals like last year this holiday, they're in a different position since then. There was a reason why they had to. Doing it again would be a waste of money.
Pretty much this.
Wait, aren't you the person that said XB1 bundle will outsell the PS4 Battlefront bundle when both are at $299 for BF because the XB1 also came with a $30 gift card?
Anyway, XB1 should have a good holiday season. PS4 will probably just have a better one, but that doesn't mean XB1's will be bad. And it'll certainly be more profitable than last year's holiday.
Agreed I also think EGM1966 above has a pretty good speculative approach to the situation
StrongBlackVine
Banned
No. $50 off the regular price for every bundle.
CosmicQueso
Member
I've really enjoyed the back and forth, surfer. I come here to get assumptions challenged and to be forced to think through things thoroughly. So thanks.
Just shy of 40 3rd party games reached that threshold. I would call maybe 4, tops, of those "shovelware" which is the term you used I was referring to. Very little "shovelware" had any kind of sales success.
Guitar Hero and Rock Band were cultural phenomena in the US. They couldn't make enough for a couple years there, then it cratered. You can see it in the chart. Instruments sold with Software in the bundles is counted as software revenues, not accessories.
You know I can't tell you that. It was a lot.
No, handhelds were not a significant part of the spike. Same trend chart, this time console only.
LOL, I'm not discussing the health of the console market. I keep typing this.
Regression to the mean is, at its most basic, is a technical way of saying things even out over time.
Look at the 1993 to 2006 trend in that chart. Some bumps in the road, but generally, you can throw a line in there and have a pretty good chance of being close to any particular year's performance.
But then 2007 comes along, huge spike. Kotick says "games are recession proof" people go nuts thinking that video games will grow forever and hundreds and hundreds of games are made, shovelware and not. But then, in 2009, you start seeing the regression to the long term average, which we again hit in 2012.
And what happened in 2012? People were screaming that the death of consoles was here, no one would buy PS4 or Xbox One, Mobile was king blah blah blah. Companies stopped investing as much in developing games.
But since then? Well, we've come down even farther below the mean, but signs are that sales should now grow back to the old average trend... back to regressing to the mean. But this can only happen if there's a normal distribution of content available. Which there isn't. Which is my whole and only point.
I don't think so. But agree to disagree.
Meaningless as in the substitutional buyers are more than made up for by the buyers who wouldn't have bought anyways.
Meaningless in the math, not meaningless as in unimportant.
Couple really good points you make here. Yes, digital has a long tail but like you say ONLY when those titles are promoted. Discover-ability of catalog in digital is a huge challenge. When you go to Walmart or GameStop, you look at the shelf, and EVERYTHING is there, right? You look around, see some old game you remember wanting to play and you might pick it up.
On digital it's much more challenging because people have to seek out catalog, unless that catalog is promoted on a storefront page or through a sale.
There are some mental barriers for some people that if a title is digital only on the Consoles, that it somehow cannot be worth $60. Or that people want the ability to sell/trade a game once it's priced higher than $20. And far too many people are disc based buyers. To try and make a big budget, $60, AAA type game digital only in 2015 is not feasible. Perhaps in 10 years it will be.
I do not think that it is fair to assume that average sales grow over time (which is why there's a very strong correlation between release count and total sales. If average sales grew over time, the correlation would be lessened).
But what I really hear you saying is that digital distribution is INCREMENTAL to the Packaged sales and growing the overall pie? Hmmm, where did I hear that before lol. Told you we agree.
Incremental - Increasing or adding on. "A "fuckton" of additional sales" = Incremental sales. We're saying the same thing.
Not at all. They are meaningful. But I'm saying more of those are additive to the pie than substitutive.
I do not think 40% will be achieved this cycle. As for the future, it depends on what offerings are made for the next gen and what consumer choose. I do not dispute the 20%.
Ehhh, if you have a bad game, nothing will save you. The development costs absolutely dwarf packaged distribution costs. If you're going to lose money, you're going to lose money regardless of a packaged version.
I think you might be overstating the costs of Packaged distribution by a significant factor.
Kind of. The addressable audience is certainly bigger when doing a Packaged release. You also get more press coverage and only with a disc will a portion of the game buying audience consider your game to be a "real game". Best you can do is tailor your offerings to multiple consumer segments.
Just shy of 40 3rd party games reached that threshold. I would call maybe 4, tops, of those "shovelware" which is the term you used I was referring to. Very little "shovelware" had any kind of sales success.
Guitar Hero and Rock Band were cultural phenomena in the US. They couldn't make enough for a couple years there, then it cratered. You can see it in the chart. Instruments sold with Software in the bundles is counted as software revenues, not accessories.
You know I can't tell you that. It was a lot.
No, handhelds were not a significant part of the spike. Same trend chart, this time console only.
LOL, I'm not discussing the health of the console market. I keep typing this.
Regression to the mean is, at its most basic, is a technical way of saying things even out over time.
Look at the 1993 to 2006 trend in that chart. Some bumps in the road, but generally, you can throw a line in there and have a pretty good chance of being close to any particular year's performance.
But then 2007 comes along, huge spike. Kotick says "games are recession proof" people go nuts thinking that video games will grow forever and hundreds and hundreds of games are made, shovelware and not. But then, in 2009, you start seeing the regression to the long term average, which we again hit in 2012.
And what happened in 2012? People were screaming that the death of consoles was here, no one would buy PS4 or Xbox One, Mobile was king blah blah blah. Companies stopped investing as much in developing games.
But since then? Well, we've come down even farther below the mean, but signs are that sales should now grow back to the old average trend... back to regressing to the mean. But this can only happen if there's a normal distribution of content available. Which there isn't. Which is my whole and only point.
I don't think so. But agree to disagree.
Meaningless as in the substitutional buyers are more than made up for by the buyers who wouldn't have bought anyways.
Meaningless in the math, not meaningless as in unimportant.
Couple really good points you make here. Yes, digital has a long tail but like you say ONLY when those titles are promoted. Discover-ability of catalog in digital is a huge challenge. When you go to Walmart or GameStop, you look at the shelf, and EVERYTHING is there, right? You look around, see some old game you remember wanting to play and you might pick it up.
On digital it's much more challenging because people have to seek out catalog, unless that catalog is promoted on a storefront page or through a sale.
There are some mental barriers for some people that if a title is digital only on the Consoles, that it somehow cannot be worth $60. Or that people want the ability to sell/trade a game once it's priced higher than $20. And far too many people are disc based buyers. To try and make a big budget, $60, AAA type game digital only in 2015 is not feasible. Perhaps in 10 years it will be.
I do not think that it is fair to assume that average sales grow over time (which is why there's a very strong correlation between release count and total sales. If average sales grew over time, the correlation would be lessened).
But what I really hear you saying is that digital distribution is INCREMENTAL to the Packaged sales and growing the overall pie? Hmmm, where did I hear that before lol. Told you we agree.
Incremental - Increasing or adding on. "A "fuckton" of additional sales" = Incremental sales. We're saying the same thing.
Not at all. They are meaningful. But I'm saying more of those are additive to the pie than substitutive.
I do not think 40% will be achieved this cycle. As for the future, it depends on what offerings are made for the next gen and what consumer choose. I do not dispute the 20%.
Ehhh, if you have a bad game, nothing will save you. The development costs absolutely dwarf packaged distribution costs. If you're going to lose money, you're going to lose money regardless of a packaged version.
I think you might be overstating the costs of Packaged distribution by a significant factor.
Kind of. The addressable audience is certainly bigger when doing a Packaged release. You also get more press coverage and only with a disc will a portion of the game buying audience consider your game to be a "real game". Best you can do is tailor your offerings to multiple consumer segments.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah I mean maybe they could be fine with 3 or 4. But why does it matter they have so many? People wont get confused they'll pick the one they want and go home.
No. I did not say that. I said assuming PS4 has November on lock is a mistake. Xbox One will have a massive November as well.
And I still stand by that. The PS4 does not have November on lock. That said I believe the PS4 will likely take the month.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Horrible idea. Like others said, it's basically channel-stuffing, and is gonna confuse the average person. Typical people like choices, but not TOO many choices. I think Sony's done better w/ bundles in that regard. 3-4 is a good limit and ensures you've narrowed down to the bundles people actually want.
Guess we'll see how it all plays out, but it seems like a lot of unnecessary confusion.
Again, we'll see what happens. They'll have a good November but I don't see them winning this time. Something about their bundle options last year seemed more consistent and focused. This year it looks like they're spreading the deck too wide and thin. Plus Sony has the Battlefront and COD official bundles effectively at $299, unlike last year when they were more expensive and didn't have bundles as good.
We'll see how MS's November plays out. Everyone thought October was gonna be awesome for them but it turned out to be lukewarm. Hopefully that's due to other factors and not some perceptible dropoff in purchasing interest for XBO.
Obliterator
Member
I mean its really not confusing. The only major bundles you will see substantially at retail this November are
Gears 500gb
Holiday 1TB
Everything else is in somewhat limited supply. It looks like a hell of a lot more than it is. These 2 are the primary channel with the Fallout 4 bundle also having decent stock
Gears 500gb
Holiday 1TB
Everything else is in somewhat limited supply. It looks like a hell of a lot more than it is. These 2 are the primary channel with the Fallout 4 bundle also having decent stock
Aceofspades
Banned
You guys don't get it.
MS didn't plan to introduce 12 bundles for this BF, its a cumulation of all their bundles that has been setting on shelves throughout the year, they just want to clear the stock and BF is the perfect opportunity to work that out.
MS didn't plan to introduce 12 bundles for this BF, its a cumulation of all their bundles that has been setting on shelves throughout the year, they just want to clear the stock and BF is the perfect opportunity to work that out.
Just out of curiosity, what kind of number do you have in mind when you say "massive"?
Obliterator
Member
Ah, yes, my bad. I stand corrected.
Yep. On top of this, I don't think having so many bundles will be that confusing either since a large portion of them are game oriented.
"I want a new system alongside Madden."
"I want a new system alongside Fallout."
"I want a new system alongside a Lego game for my kids."
"I want a new system alongside Tomb Raider."
"I want a new system alongside (Xbox exclusive)."
I would feel differently if the majority of bundles were simply different storage sizes with different included accessories.
But anyway, this should be a big month for both the PS4 and Xbox One. Expecting both to go over one million pretty easily.
Primethius
Banned
What's the time frame comparison between the PS4 vs X1 on the $299 deal?
MS has it for 5 days, I doubt PS4 is the same.
MS has it for 5 days, I doubt PS4 is the same.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Have no idea why people here are acting like this holiday will be bad for the X1 and has no chance of beating the PS4 just because they didn't cut the price to $299 for all their bundles.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Didn't you get the memo? Coming first is a failure.
Right because there was nothing else being discussed about the sales for October. Context is important no matter how reductive you choose to be.
CosmicQueso
Member
Do you feel better now?
Seek help. After seeing you do this so many times, drive-by shitposting as a form of self-therapy just isn't working for you.
So in light of the active player totals for Battlefront, I'm definitely doubling down on that prediction that Black Ops 3 gets #1, Fallout 4 gets a strong #2, and Battlefront is a distant third in the coming NPD. The rest is anyone's game, except that Rise of the Tomb Raider missed the chart.
Mister Megative
Banned
I think my bet will be:
PS4: 1.2 million
X1: 950k
CoD: 5 million
Fallout 4: 4.2 million
BF: 3.4 million
I think you're underestimating the appeal of Star Wars to people who may not otherwise buy a game. I also think those bundles have likely sold a great deal, putting the game into many homes. BUT, we'll see!
Side question: What is the estimated loss (if any) for selling systems at effectively 299 for both Microsoft and Sony? The current set of consoles are a lot cheaper than their predecessors.
I managed to pick up an Xbox for (equivalent) 263 USD in NZ, and I would have had an even better deal if I managed to get one of the sold out bundles that had GOW remastered. Add in MCC and I reach 290USD. Add in another controller and I reach $330.
In contrast, I got my PS3+GOW3+extra DS3 for about $515 USD in 2010, accounting for exchange rates and inflation in NZ.
I managed to pick up an Xbox for (equivalent) 263 USD in NZ, and I would have had an even better deal if I managed to get one of the sold out bundles that had GOW remastered. Add in MCC and I reach 290USD. Add in another controller and I reach $330.
In contrast, I got my PS3+GOW3+extra DS3 for about $515 USD in 2010, accounting for exchange rates and inflation in NZ.
Don't think they're losing any money, the PS3 was just a terribly engineered system.