Relevant of course it is.150k week one in UK remains big for a exclusive game.
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Relevant of course it is.150k week one in UK remains big for a exclusive game.
I think the WW "has a chance" ship has sailed, UC4 could pass Halo 5's LTD sales as of March next year within its first month (UC3's first month shipments were 5 million, UC4 will at least match that).
While I don't remember that thread I presume people were surmising which PS event Sony would announce a price drop and thinking like that its only PGW that was a sensible guess particularly as it was before BF and the holiday releases
I don't think many expected Sony not to align a price drop announcement outside of a conference
ps3ud0 8)
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Hey guys, since we all talk about Uncharted VS Halo in US and WW...
I have a better question. What if SPLATOON (!!!!!) sell more than Halo 5 worldwide!?!?!? D:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >
This is a job for SPLATOON 2.
mejin
Member
Hey guys, since we all talk about Uncharted VS Halo in US and WW...
I have a better question. What if SPLATOON (!!!!!) sell more than Halo 5 worldwide!?!?!? D:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >
LOL, Splatoon 2 > Halo 5 ( or 6, 7, ecc ) is a given unless NX will sell like Wii U or worse.
But with even only 25/30 million userbase, Splatoon on NX will beat the next Halo easy. For not even talk if NX will sell +50 million, in that case, will be a massacre. XD XD XD
Still, let's see how Halo 5 will sell in the US. If Halo will sell over 1.5 million or at least close with this, then, should beat Splatoon.
But if not... ouch. We will see. I still say Halo 5 > Splatoon. But will be much close than i thought.
Hey guys, since we all talk about Uncharted VS Halo in US and WW...
I have a better question. What if SPLATOON (!!!!!) sell more than Halo 5 worldwide!?!?!? D:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >
Well would actually be great for the industry I think if we had more shooters like Splatoon instead of more of the already crowded military type (whether that's space or terrestrial) FPS.
Hey guys, since we all talk about Uncharted VS Halo in US and WW...
I have a better question. What if SPLATOON (!!!!!) sell more than Halo 5 worldwide!?!?!? D:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >
I know you're joking, but it can actually sell close to Halo's LTD.
Halo used to be a 8-10 million seller, if it sells half of its usual debut in the US & UK, & then completely disappears in Europe, I can see it selling less than 5 million WW.
While Splatoon selling ~4 million is extremely unlikely, I wouldn't be surprised if it did.
Lol, i'm not joking, i'm serius!
Splatoon over 4 million is a given. It should sell easy 5 / 6 million. Before you call me crazy, look this: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSpyCNWWUAQnc9R.png:large
Splatoon is so far selling better than what i predicted. I this is the trend, Splatoon will sell at very least 5 million.
About Halo 5 VS Splatoon... i still think Halo 5 will sell more. But there is now a chance for Splatoon to sell more. That's just too hilarius.
It's not a given at all, Splatoon sold 2.6 (?) million in its first 5 months, do you really expect it to sell even better than it did in its launch window in the next few months?
For real though lol. It's crazy to see how high FO4 is on the list and how well the PS4 COD bundle is selling. It'll be interesting to see how things sell for the month of november on amazon.
Just for you know.
Splatoon worldwide has sold more than Mario Kart ( MORE THAN MARIO KART 8 ) in the second quarter of sales.
Splatoon July to September 2015: 800,000
MK8 July to September 2014: 670,000
Launch allinied, MK8 is at 3.49 million, Splatoon at 2.42 million.
But the trend show how Splatoon has better legs. So, yes, with those MK8 sales, 4 million is a given for Splatoon.
Here what sold MK8 in the rest of quarters.
Oct to Dec 2014: 1.28m
Jan to Mar 2015: 340k
Apr to Jun 2015: 320k
Jul to Sep 2015: 440k
Total Oct 2014 to Sep 2015: 2.38 million.
This mean Splatoon will sell AT LEAST close to this, but seem likely believe will be the same, or even more.
So, 2.42m ( atual sales) + 2.38m (mk8 sales) = 4.8 million
4.5 million is a given for Splatoon. I expect 5.5 million, but is selling more than what i predict, so... we will see, at this point should sell 6 million.
Not say will beat for sure Halo 5, but will be close.
slavesnyder
Member
But if Halo is the Star Wars of gaming... what does this mean for Star Wars now?
Only for story, not for sales.
Darth Smurf X
Member
We all know the Halo 5 Bundle for Amazon did gangbusters in August, but nobody has posted (or maybe I missed it), how well the Uncharted bundle did in previous months that will count for October? I'm not even sure when it first went on sale.
Anyone have an Amazon listing for this?
Anyone have an Amazon listing for this?
CosmicQueso
Member
Speaking of price drop predictions, CosmicQueso, you totally lost that avatar bet. I need a hashtag of #birthers on your avatar.
Yep, sure did. Bet was never specified though. So, shrug.
Price drop still seems too early, but hey. Whatever works!
It had better legs because it didn't do as well as MK8 at launch, but that doesn't prove anything at all, MK8 also did very well on Q4, something you can't expect out of Splatoon just because it had a better Q3. Slatoon needs to double its LTD sales within the next ~year & before NX's launch to even come close to 5 million, let alone 6 million.
Not even GTA doubled its LTD sales after a similar time frame, & that game had a PS4/XB1/PC re-release.
Katana_Strikes
Member
I couldn't see it in the Top 100 for September when I had a quick look.
Now it's just a question of how many consoles they have. No doubt it'll sell out and I wonder if any of the major retailers will go ahead and drop the price to $299 on Black Friday?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Worldwide it most likely will and I said that months ago. U.S. is definitely still shooter land though.
I agree with you. Does seem a bit early.
I'm guessing they did it now to:
1) combat Halo 5's release
2) Have it officially at the $349 price for a while before they "unofficially" price drop to $299 (or effectively $299 after the extra game pack-ins and/or retailer gift cards) through retailers.
For #2, if they dropped to $349 right the midst of the holidays, they either wouldn't be able to retailer price drop it to $299 (as it would seem a bit awkward) and/or they wouldn't be able to enjoy the extra profit of $349 for a month or two before taking the hit of extra retailer discounts.
...Wut?
Mario Kart 8 first quarter: 2.82m
Splatoon first quarter: 1.62m
Second quarter:
Splatoon: 800k
MK8: 670k
I mean... you wanna say Splatoon has not better legs?
4.5 million for Splatoon is the minimum. 5 million is a pecsimist prediction.
6 million is a realistic prediction, and i made a predictions for ALL quarters until 2017.
I know you didn't made this prediction, but you should, because you will understand why 4 million or less is impossible for Splatoon. It will sell 5 million easy.
I still say 5.5 million, but will probabily beat this.
panda-zebra
Member
When Amazon pre-orders only cost a click, no cash, they're probably slightly less reliable than other areas of their figures. I know I personally pre-order plenty of items there hoping to catch flash sales/discounts before release, but end up cancelling most of them. It'd be interesting to know how many of these translated into actual purchases of that SKU. It's an expensive bundle and there was plenty of time there for people to go with a better value SKU and purchase the game separately.It didn't register in September either, so could very well be tainted with enthusiastic clicks that later got zapped.
Too many variables this month, but the UK Halo news doesn't affect my thinking, I still see a slim xb1 win and won't be touching my predictions.
Primethius
Banned
Dammit, almost had ya! Next time Cosmic, next time!
Pretty much. I expect UC4 to continue the trend by debuting sales about 250k more then the previous iteration and managing to hit 1 million in it's first month. But even with Halo 5's lackluster launch sales in the UK, it's debut is at the very least going to be comfortably above 1.5 million in the US.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
what were the debuts of previous games in US?
Darth Smurf X
Member
Ah. Thanks for checking.
I still have no idea what to put down for numbers this month.
Primethius
Banned
I just can't believe that. Titanfall was a new IP. Halo 5 has to sell more then 1.5 million.
If it doesnt...
I don't think we're gonna agree on that, so let's just agree to disagree. Let's revisit this discussion after Q4.
Halo 5 will sell more Ryng
Of course, i don't say it can't, but how we can say will sell "easy" over 1.5 million?
Like i said, can sell more or less, but with those UK sales i don't think Halo 5 will sell "easy" over 1.5 million...
That said, you're 1.3m < Halo 5 < 1.8m seem about right.
Yeah, i predicted over 2 million. But i'm litterally shocked by thise UK sales... i still can't believe it sold only a bit more than Titanfall. I think will do better in the US.
I expect Splatoon to sell 3.52 million ... i'm sure will sell at least close to this, if not more. But hey, you will see.
I think you, and like you, many guys, will be really surprised by Splatoon.
Halo 3 did 3,3 ML IIRC .
Globally, it has a shot. Assuming that the PS4 sells >300k in October, November, and December NPD, Sony will comfortably have over 30 million PS4's in homes by March 2016. The PS4's hardware installbase will be enough to make UC4 a big seller, so it's going to come down to how good of a game ND can make + how much money Sony pumps into the marketing of the game.
In hindsight, the Nathan Drake collection was a brilliant move. Through retail sales, bundle sales, and digital sales, it could (potentially) bring in 2-3 million brand new fans to the Uncharted series. That's very good news for Naughty Dog. Keep in mind that Uncharted 4 is being billed as the end of the franchise, so there's going to be a heightened interest around the game just for the sake of closure. Part of the reason why I believe Halo 3 did so well was because the "Finish the Fight" slogan caught on, and people actually believed that the game would be Master Chief's last outing. Of course, that was a lie, but I also don't believe that Uncharted 4's subtitle refers to Nathan Drake.
Ultimately, I think UC4 can outsell Halo 5 due to the nonexistence of the Xbox One in JP and EU. The Japan sales of UC4 can negate the EU sales of Halo 5, and the EU and NA sales of UC4 can match -- and possibly exceed -- the NA sales of Halo 5. Unlike last gen, Uncharted is now comfort food, so if Naughty Dog succeeds (critically) with UC4, then they'll have a shot of having the highest selling first-party title of the gen. Hard work pays off, so I would love to see Naughty Dog get the commercial success that matches their creative effort.
Side note: This might be premature, but I predict that IF Uncharted 4 turns out great, then it will comfortably outsell the next Gears of War. Gears 4 just seems like an impending sales disappointment. I think Gears 1 and Gears 3 are phenomenal, but Gears 4 is carrying the same "Nobody actually asked for this" vibe that Lost Planet 3 carried.
Halo 3: 3.3 MM first NPD
ODST: 1.5 MM "
Reach: 3.3 MM "
Halo 4: 3.2 MM "
1.5MM for the month would be quite the decline
Halo 2 was around 3.3M as well.
It is worth noting that Halo 2 and 4 had almost a months worth of sales. Halo Reach came out in mid September. ODST had a bit more of a weeks worth.
and just to be clear. That's not selling bad by any means. It just shows Halo doesn't have the prowess that it once had.
Well, I expected Sony to drop the price already at E3, and I expected them to drop it by $100. On the other hand, Sony has some more information than I do. (Welcome to Understatementville. Keep it down!)
But I guess that Sony has had time and opportunities to estimate the price elasticity, so they could plan their production capacity appropriately. It could well be that the results of a potential $100 drop were simply too erratic, so they would have risked either shortages or oversupply, and they wanted neither. $50 drop is much more forecastable and manageable.
Sneaky bastards, they are.
Still, I wouldn't hazard a guess as to which console wins. (PS4!)
If anything I think we'll get something tomorrow. That would make it a week after launch. If we get nothing then yea...people will start reading into things.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
So we are looking at 1-1.5 million for Halo 5 as a range. I doubt US would differ that much in comparison to what we saw in the UK.
I expect Splatoon to sell 3.52 million ... i'm sure will sell at least close to this, if not more. But hey, you will see.
I think you, and like you, many guys, will be really surprised by Splatoon.
I'd love to be wrong, I like seeing a new IP do well, but I'm still skeptical.
PS4 sales in March 2016 would be closer to 40 million, not 30.
It will pass Halo 5 LTD sales around launch month in my opinion, I'd be shocked if it doesn't, Uncharted 3's launch day shipments were 3.8 million & first month shipments were 5 million. Uncharted 3 LTD sales have been discussed in every single sales thread, but it should be around 10 million (+1/-1 give or take) based on the data we have. So UC3 already sold as well as the best selling Halo games, or close to it, if UC4 remains flat, it would easily sell better than Halo 5.
Katana_Strikes
Member
Boy if Halo 5 comes in at 1.5m that would be some serious decline. 2m wouldn't be so bad especially with digital on top. Less than 1.5m... yikes. I'd prepare the bunker.
Halo 3 sold 14.5 ML
Unless I'm off my rocker, a -conservative- estimate would have the PS4 (and probably XB1) north of 2m units sold each between Nov and Dec on NPD alone...
Halo 3 is >14.5MM.