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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

I

Interficium

Banned
Ryng_Tolu said:
In UK, Halo 5 has sold 150,000 first week, only a bit more than Titanfall ( 125,000 ) and Destiny ( 144,000 ) for XB1.

In ths US, in 4 weeks, Titanfall has sold 1 million (with bundle, without, 865,000 ), and Destiny for XB1 has sold 910,000.
Both sold those numbers in 4 weeks. IN 4 WEEKS.

If we will see a similar trend in the US... of course the thing can be difference, but IF we will see a similar trend...

In one week, Halo 5 will sell barely over 1 million. Maybe less.
Click to expand...

TWO WEEKS AGO.....

Ryng_Tolu said:
2,300,000 in October NPD.
Click to expand...

Ryng_Tolu said:
~14.1 million shipped by June 2015 ( my estimate ).
Click to expand...

AVJBnsp.jpg
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
LOL, Splatoon 2 > Halo 5 ( or 6, 7, ecc ) is a given unless NX will sell like Wii U or worse.
But with even only 25/30 million userbase, Splatoon on NX will beat the next Halo easy. For not even talk if NX will sell +50 million, in that case, will be a massacre. XD XD XD

Still, let's see how Halo 5 will sell in the US. If Halo will sell over 1.5 million or at least close with this, then, should beat Splatoon.

But if not... ouch. We will see. I still say Halo 5 > Splatoon. But will be much close than i thought.
Click to expand...

No way is a given, it's a possibility. (Just for 5, I'm not assuming like you that Halo 6 can't sell better than 5.)

And I don't think Splatoon legs are so big as you think.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Darth Smurf X said:
We all know the Halo 5 Bundle for Amazon did gangbusters in August, but nobody has posted (or maybe I missed it), how well the Uncharted bundle did in previous months that will count for October? I'm not even sure when it first went on sale.

Anyone have an Amazon listing for this?
Click to expand...

Who we? We don't know anything yet. We will see how much Halo 5 bundle preorders from August will impact sales in October. Preorders from August must complement 60-70k difference in September in first place. Then Halo 5 bundle sales in October must overtake 280k numbers from September.
 
A

Alo0oy

Banned
Interficium said:
Were you one of those guys who were saying the attach was going to be 50% as well?
Click to expand...

I didn't expect a 50% attache rate, & I actually expected a decline in sales for Halo 5, but I didn't expect it to do this badly, my prediction was 2+ million, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if AC: Syndicate takes the #1 spot.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Alo0oy said:
I didn't expect a 50% attache rate, & I actually expected a decline in sales for Halo 5, but I didn't expect it to do this badly, my prediction was 2+ million, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if AC: Syndicate takes the #1 spot.
Click to expand...

In UK Halo 5 sold 50% more than Syndicate on launch week.

Assassin's Creed is another franchise in decline.
 
T

Tubie

Member
I can't wait for next week.
That thread will be very interesting.

I still have no idea who I'm gonna put ahead in my prediction, It's just really hard to believe Xbox would lose on Halo month.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Alo0oy said:
I didn't expect a 50% attache rate, & I actually expected a decline in sales for Halo 5, but I didn't expect it to do this badly, my prediction was 2+ million, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if AC: Syndicate takes the #1 spot.
Click to expand...

I don't think so, Unity sold less than 1 million firs NPD, and in 3 weeks with Black Friday.
Syndacate has 2 weeks and as for now we know is selling worse than Unity in UK, i expect the same in the US.

EDIT: And i also believe NBA will sell more.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Alo0oy said:
I didn't expect a 50% attache rate, & I actually expected a decline in sales for Halo 5, but I didn't expect it to do this badly, my prediction was 2+ million, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if AC: Syndicate takes the #1 spot.
Click to expand...

Not a chance. NBA 2K might very well end up with better sales numbers than AC.
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
Conduit said:
Who we? We don't know anything yet. We will see how much Halo 5 bundle preorders from August will impact sales in October. Preorders from August must complement 60-70k difference in September in first place. Then Halo 5 bundle sales in October must overtake 280k numbers from September.
Click to expand...

By that, I meant that it sold better than all other XB1 bundles in August. On Amazon. And by "sold," I mean "clicked 'add to cart.'" And that number could very well not be accurate, since not every preorder is actually paid for in the end.

Basically, I just wanted to know how August's Halo numbers compared to September's Uncharted numbers. And there is no comparison... so... carry on, folks.
 
A

Alo0oy

Banned
allan-bh said:
In UK Halo 5 sold 50% more than Syndicate on launch week.

Assassin's Creed is another franchise in decline.
Click to expand...

Ryng_Tolu said:
I don't think so, Unity sold less than 1 million firs NPD, and in 3 weeks with Black Friday.
Syndacate has 2 weeks and as for now we know is selling worse than Unity in UK, i expect the same in the US.

EDIT: And i also believe NBA will sell more.
Click to expand...

Kill3r7 said:
Not a chance. NBA 2K might very well end up with better sales numbers than AC.
Click to expand...

True, I forgot that AC was fucked as well.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Tubie said:
I can't wait for next week.
That thread will be very interesting.

I still have no idea who I'm gonna put ahead in my prediction, It's just really hard to believe Xbox would lose on Halo month.
Click to expand...

Next week should be fun but I really can't wait for the November NPD.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
The price drop caught me by surprise. With all these discussions in NPD threads I was finally convinced we would not see any this year. Now, 50$ seemed half-baken, but it seems to be, once again, a very good decision. Spitting in MS's Halo soup plus leaving a little extra air for black friday burundus. very clever, but Spencer asked for it. So it's his fault in the end.

Also, the 50$ price drop seems to be enough. 100$ would have caused a bigger splash, but it was a clear signal to the consumers: If you want to join us - you can do it now. It won't get cheaper for a long while, so why waiting? This is our last word (except for black friday, maybe). They might even still make a profit on each console.

With the drop, October will surely not close the gap by much, maybe even widen a little more, and with the months coming up the gap might become a canyon.

If Xbox does not take this month, well, it would be almost saddening.
 
I

Interficium

Banned
Primethius said:
By any chance, did you make a prediction for Halo 5 sales?
Click to expand...

In the first few pages of the "Do you think Halo 5 will live up to expectations?" thread (the same one where I got Ryng_Tolu's predictions from) I made a couple of posts trying to pour cold water (to little success) on people predicting 5m week one sales and 14m+ LTD by saying 50% attach would never happen and that the game would continue the downward sales trend that started with Reach and Halo 4.

I also think their retention is going to basically be a repeat of Halo 4 (or possibly worse) and that their concurrents are going to get completely curbstombed by BO3, Battlefront, and Fallout. Maybe sub-150k by two weeks from now.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
Just talked to my local Gamestop manager. Apparently only 40 people showed up to the midnight launch for Halo 5

Side notes, this is a college town, and last year 60 people showed up for the MCC midnight last year.

Also, CoD and Fallout are getting really good reserve numbers, but no specifics.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Fat4all said:
Just talked to my local Gamestop manager. Apparently only 40 people showed up to the midnight launch for Halo 5

Side notes, this is a college town, and last year 60 people showed up for the MCC midnight last year.

Also, CoD and Fallout are getting really good reserve numbers, but no specifics.
Click to expand...

I live in a college town as well. Went to the Halo 3 launch at Gamestop. Both stores are in walking distance. Both had well over 100 lined up.
 
C

CrimsonEclipse

Member
slavesnyder said:
The price drop caught me by surprise. With all these discussions in NPD threads I was finally convinced we would not see any this year. Now, 50$ seemed half-baken, but it seems to be, once again, a very good decision. Spitting in MS's Halo soup plus leaving a little extra air for black friday burundus. very clever, but Spencer asked for it. So it's his fault in the end.

Also, the 50$ price drop seems to be enough. 100$ would have caused a bigger splash, but it was a clear signal to the consumers: If you want to join us - you can do it now. It won't get cheaper for a long while, so why waiting? This is our last word (except for black friday, maybe). They might even still make a profit on each console.

With the drop, October will surely not close the gap by much, maybe even widen a little more, and with the months coming up the gap might become a canyon.

If Xbox does not take this month, well, it would be almost saddening.
Click to expand...

I wouldnt be surprised if PS4 takes it in all honesty.

Alo0oy said:
Destiny & Watch Dogs did huge numbers, this is just a natural decline for two long running franchises.
Click to expand...

Good point.
 
K

Katana_Strikes

Member
Tubie said:
I can't wait for next week.
That thread will be very interesting.

I still have no idea who I'm gonna put ahead in my prediction, It's just really hard to believe Xbox would lose on Halo month.
Click to expand...

Now that the UK sales are out there for Halo, I think that may ease the talking point somewhat especially as we've already had most the excuses out the way. Unless sales are really bad for Halo in the US. Like under 1.5m then it'll all fire up again.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Interficium said:
In the first few pages of the "Do you think Halo 5 will live up to expectations?" thread I made a couple of posts trying to pour cold water (to little success) on people predicting 5m week one sales and 14m+ LTD by saying 50% attach would never happen and that the game would continue the downward sales trend that started with Reach and Halo 4.

I also think their retention is going to basically be a repeat of Halo 4 (or possibly worse) and that their concurrents are going to get completely curbstombed by BO3, Battlefront, and Fallout. Maybe sub-150k by two weeks from now.
Click to expand...

Halo 5 should have better legs than 4. The MP is excellent but unfortunately BLOPS3/ Star Wars Battlefront/FO4/Destiny will definitely steal some players. The question is will 343 be able to stop the bleeding. I think they can take a few pointers from Destiny.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
I do wonder if no local co-op of any kind is impacting sales.

I certainly didn't expect the Amazon reviews to wash out the way they did so far.
 
D

donny2112

Member
allan-bh said:
More than 2 million was a given for me in NPD, now I don't know. UK launch was surprisingly low for a main Halo.
Click to expand...

UK counts bundled games, but I don't know if they count bundled digital games. In any case, I still fully expect Halo 5 to be over 2m with digital in the U.S. with the question still being if it'll cross 3m or not. If it's less than 2m, then Halo, as we knew it in sales terms, is gone.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
donny2112 said:
UK counts bundled games, but I don't know if they count bundled digital games. In any case, I still fully expect Halo 5 to be over 2m with digital in the U.S. with the question still being if it'll cross 3m or not. If it's less than 2m, then Halo, as we knew it in sales terms, is gone.
Click to expand...

To complicate things further Halo 5 LE bundle was on sale the week prior but ultimately I don't think it really matters. Even if you were to include digital sales the numbers would be pretty abysmal for mainline Halo. It's a shame as I like it way more than 4.
 
S

SnowFlakeCake

Member
What a fuck up by MS to say the least. Halo 5 will still sell really well but the franchise most definitely ain't what it used to be anymore. Also shows how weak Sony and MS first party is when I say Halo 5 will still easily be the best selling exclusive on either console. Sony and MS don't have any big franchises to compete with the big boys, simple as that.
 
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