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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

H

hawk2025

Member
Well, the other thread has devolved into trying to shout down anyone trying to parse through the statement regarding Halo 5.

Maybe I'll come back to it in a few hours once people have calmed down a bit.
 
C

cakely

Member
3rdamention said:
"The end of October, we celebrated the launch of the highly anticipated, best selling franchise Halo 5, with you our fans. Halo 5 debuted with the biggest launch of any Xbox Exclusive game in the history of the Xbox One. XBL users showed continued growth as they logged more minutes online with Halo 5 than any other Xbox Game. The Halo Limited Edition Bundle was the highest selling Xbox system for the month of October. But, we are not done. This Holiday Season, we will continue to release more titles from the Greatest Lineup in Xbox History, proving once again, the Xbox One is the "best place to play" this Holiday."
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how this happened but your release had less spin in it than the actual PR.
 
Q

QaaQer

Member
hawk2025 said:
Well, the other thread has devolved into trying to shout down anyone trying to parse through the statement regarding Halo 5.

Maybe I'll come back to it in a few hours once people have calmed down a bit.
Click to expand...

haha, yeah. I'm pretty glad 'Halo' isn't in the thread title.
 
O

orochi91

Member
That other thread is killing me lmao

A handful of people willingly lapping up that PR spin and label anyone asking for numbers as having an agenda.

Oh, and sales don't matter now.

Sales-Gaf, you've had a good run XD
 
P

Primethius

Banned
The more I try to figure out the week one attach rate business, the more impressed I am by the PR.

I feel like I know less then I did before the PR came out.
 
J

jbluzb

Member
I got my MS PR :) Now, I am confident in my prediction. At least it was not compared to movies ;D

Great hardware & sales $$!

Here is my estimated breakdown (PR guest work):

Worldwide @ 1 million Halo 5: 1,000,000 X $45 = 45,000,000.00
Halo 5 Limited Edition @ 400,000 NA: 400,000 X $500 = 200,000,000.00
Halo 5 Limited Edition @ 200,00 WW: 200,000 X $500 = 100,000,000.00
Halo 5 Controllers @ 100,000 WW: 100,000 X $50 = 50,000.00.00
Halo 5 Microtransactions @ 10%: 45,000,000 X 10% = 4,500,000.00

Total: 399,500,000.00
 
Hydrargyrus

Hydrargyrus

Member
Oh god, there's so much PR spinning that I really have motion dizziness!!

homer.gif
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Yea okay, the attach-ratio gives us nothing. Figured but thought it was worth looking into.

MCC probably had the highest attach-ratio for a first-party title and it's attach-ratio is nothing to write home about.

Till the NPD release we wait.
 
S

Shenmue

Banned
hawk2025 said:
Well, the other thread has devolved into trying to shout down anyone trying to parse through the statement regarding Halo 5.

Maybe I'll come back to it in a few hours once people have calmed down a bit.
Click to expand...

I dunno I genuinely feel bad for some people in the thread. You can tell there are people there who are genuinely very defensive and obviously sad that their favorite franchise and in turn, console is no longer at the peak it was during the last gen. Hearing all the skepticism and negative data since Halo 5 released has really got them down.

It's kind of like kicking someone who's already down. People should probably just try to keep it to the obvious sales threads like NPD? The MS announcement for Halo's performance is some good news finally so fans finally have a thread to celebrate some good news.

I'm not going to post there about objectively looking at sales anyway. No need to rain on anyone's parade.
 
K

Katana_Strikes

Member
So much lack of solid numbers in that PR and lumping numbers together and being generally vague should be enough for most to read between the lines. Hopefully we can hunt the truth from the NPD figures. I'm not impressed by the PR spin.
 
J

jbluzb

Member
yukianderson said:
I can't wait for people to see the actual sale numbers and say but it made profit is all that matters. Is going to be epic.
Click to expand...

the crazy thing is my super low estimate of 550k to 650k might be true :p as the $400 million after reading again the PR is $$ sold to retailers :p
 
Hydrargyrus

Hydrargyrus

Member
Katana_Strikes said:
So much lack of solid numbers in that PR and lumping numbers together and being generally vague should be enough for most to read between the lines. Hopefully we can hunt the truth from the NPD figures. I'm not impressed by the PR spin.
Click to expand...

Obviously.
If the sales numbers were really good, there's no doubt that they would have said that instead "hours played"
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Shenmue said:
I dunno I genuinely feel bad for some people in the thread. You can tell there are people there who are genuinely very defensive and obviously sad that their favorite franchise and in turn, console is no longer at the peak it was during the last gen. Hearing all the skepticism and negative data since Halo 5 released has really got them down.

It's kind of like kicking someone who's already down. People should probably just try to keep it to the obvious sales threads like NPD? The MS announcement for Halo's performance is some good news finally so fans finally have a thread to celebrate some good news.

I'm not going to post there about objectively looking at sales anyway. No need to rain on anyone's parade.
Click to expand...

Yea. I still don't want to jump to conclusions though about who won the month. But yea the lack of any real numbers and lumping so many variables together is very telling. NPD can't get here soon enough
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
If anything this month and Halo 5 news gave this prediction thread a lil boost. Been seeing ppl post that prediction threads arent the same lately.

We can thank MS for that.

tfur said:
There is no way Xbox looses on a Halo release. That would be devastating.
Click to expand...

There was also no way they would be losing NA this soon by this much and no way the Wii U would sell as poorly as its been but here we are....

Looking from last gen to now...I wouldnt rule out anything. I do still wonder if a PS4 price cut is enough to take Oct vs Halo 5 launching.
 
R

Ray Down

Banned
orochi91 said:
That other thread is killing me lmao

A handful of people willingly lapping up that PR spin and label anyone asking for numbers as having an agenda.

Oh, and sales don't matter now.

Sales-Gaf, you've had a good run XD
Click to expand...

I got a few chuckles reading the thread and seeing quite a few people who brought that up were on my ignore list.

October thread is going to be fun from the looks of it.
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
orochi91 said:
That other thread is killing me lmao

A handful of people willingly lapping up that PR spin and label anyone asking for numbers as having an agenda.

Oh, and sales don't matter now.

Sales-Gaf, you've had a good run XD
Click to expand...

Thanks to you, I headed over to that thread for a bit. It was entertaining at first, but quite a few posts started to remind me of GameFAQs and the PTSD flashbacks began.

Now I'm going to spend the next 3 hours rocking back and forth and still have no idea what numbers to put up for XBO and PS4 or who wins Oct.
 
J

jayu26

Member
jbluzb said:
I got my MS PR :) Now, I am confident in my prediction. At least it was not compared to movies ;D

Great hardware & sales $$!

Here is my estimated breakdown (PR guest work):

Worldwide @ 1 million Halo 5: 1,000,000 X $45 = 45,000,000.00
Halo 5 Limited Edition @ 400,000 NA: 400,000 X $500 = 200,000,000.00
Halo 5 Limited Edition @ 200,00 WW: 200,000 X $500 = 100,000,000.00
Halo 5 Controllers @ 100,000 WW: 100,000 X $50 = 50,000.00.00
Halo 5 Microtransactions @ 10%: 45,000,000 X 10% = 4,500,000.00

Total: 399,500,000.00
Click to expand...
400K limited edition in NA might be a bit much. According to this World wide figure of Halo 5 software sales would be 1.6 million (1million + 400k limited NA + 200k limited WW). That seems low.

Katana_Strikes said:
So much lack of solid numbers in that PR and lumping numbers together and being generally vague should be enough for most to read between the lines. Hopefully we can hunt the truth from the NPD figures. I'm not impressed by the PR spin.
Click to expand...

How are you not impressed. It is the greatest spin this generation, possibly the entire history of consoles.
 
A

AP90

Member
jbluzb said:
I got my MS PR :) Now, I am confident in my prediction. At least it was not compared to movies ;D

Great hardware & sales $$!

Here is my estimated breakdown (PR guest work):

Worldwide @ 1 million Halo 5: 1,000,000 X $45 = 45,000,000.00
Halo 5 Limited Edition @ 400,000 NA: 400,000 X $500 = 200,000,000.00
Halo 5 Limited Edition @ 200,00 WW: 200,000 X $500 = 100,000,000.00
Halo 5 Controllers @ 100,000 WW: 100,000 X $50 = 50,000.00.00
Halo 5 Microtransactions @ 10%: 45,000,000 X 10% = 4,500,000.00

Total: 399,500,000.00
Click to expand...

Too complicated... I like to mess around with easy numbers / approx =P

Below is from my other threads post.
---------------------
Here's my estimated math IMO... Either way its good for NPD and other things..

175mil / $500(avg # factoring in consoles + controllers) = 350k of a blend of consoles/ controllers


225mil/ $75(avg # factoring in standard, LE and CE editions and discounts offered over the last few weeks.) = 3 million copies sold approx.

If the above is true (speculation), then id say that's pretty damn good IMO.
Last edited by AP90; Today at 11:17 AM.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Between Fallout 4 and NPD results, it's going to be like Xmas in November on the 10th.

Can't wait for this Very Interesting Day™.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Darn, not sure why I thought it was on the 10th.
Close enough though, next week should be a good one :)

Edit: I see, the 10th is the deadline to enter predictions.
 
J

jayu26

Member
AP90 said:
Too complicated... I like to mess around with easy numbers / approx =P

Below is from my other threads post.
---------------------
Here's my estimated math IMO... Either way its good for NPD and other things..

175mil / $500(avg # factoring in consoles + controllers) = 350k of a blend of consoles/ controllers


225mil/ $75(avg # factoring in standard, LE and CE editions and discounts offered over the last few weeks.) = 3 million copies sold approx.

If the above is true (speculation), then id say that's pretty damn good IMO.
Last edited by AP90; Today at 11:17 AM.
Click to expand...

You think they sold 350k of limited edition consoles plus controllers world wide? That seems way too low.
 
A

AP90

Member
jayu26 said:
You think they sold 350k of limited edition consoles plus controllers world wide? That seems way too low.
Click to expand...

I do believe some people were holding our for these, but I do not think the LE bundle were a massive hit. Controllers more so I think.

But IMO I do not think hardware portion sales exceeded more than $200mil.

Either way it is just a vague range.
 
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