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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Boke1879

Member
And yet if Sony did similar bullshit with U4 I'm positive numbers would suddenly matter to them again.

I'm sure you have a few trolls in that thread just trying to start shit. But anyone who's serious knows that Halo 5 sold very well.

People just need to realize it's just very obvious that there is a decline in sales compared to previous entries.
 

Tubie

Member
Reading that Halo PR thread... 0.o

Next week will really be like that epic Titanfall thread all over again if PS4 really won October.

Also, whoever does the press releases for MS deserves a raise lol. That was some masterclass spin right there, from start to finish.
 

Andvary

Member
Already posted in other thread but...DAT Spin...


It's more like
giphy.gif
 
So what's the truth behind Halo sales.

Did it underperform compared to the other mainline Halo's ?

I seriously don't know which posts are legit in that thread, it's a mess.
 

QaaQer

Member
It was a thread specifically discussing how much revenue Halo 5 has generated for the company before people came in and starting beating the 'number of units sold' drum. Obviously two very different distinctions being conflated resulting in nothing but chaos (thread title certainly did not help). Technically, the number of units in that thread is irrelevant as one could, and SHOULD, assume that the revenue being discussed was pertaining to anything relating to the brand, in and of itself, inclusive of all merch. Asking how many units of the game sold in that thread is as stupid as asking how many halo controllers were sold.

People wanting unit sales should wait until NPD updates come out.

It is/was a thread about MS pr tripe and some people were trying to parse the words in between the "omg, unbelievably great, congrats." before being bullied. There should be room for both the congrats and the analysis, btw.
 
Sony does need to look at hiring a better PR company. I don't really see them put out anything quite as high quality as this.

They had some gems during PS3, to be fair. I remember a few regarding rumble. One PR excuse was they felt the Sixaxis motion control was the future and rumble was the past. Another I recall was that rumble would keep the Sixasis motion control from functioning properly. Then came the DualShock 3 with both rumble and Sixasis.
 

Ricky_R

Member
It was a thread specifically discussing how much revenue Halo 5 has generated for the company before people came in and starting beating the 'number of units sold' drum. Obviously two very different distinctions being conflated resulting in nothing but chaos (thread title certainly did not help). Technically, the number of units in that thread is irrelevant as one could, and SHOULD, assume that the revenue being discussed was pertaining to anything relating to the brand, in and of itself, inclusive of all merch. Asking how many units of the game sold in that thread is as stupid as asking how many halo controllers were sold.

People wanting unit sales should wait until NPD updates come out.

I was talking about those who were suddenly dismissing sales numbers altogether, even if they were brought up in a thread about revenue. I honestly don't remember such a shift in narrative when revenue usually takes the backseat of the conversation, if not the trunk.

Admittedly, instigators and trolls don't help much, neither does it help to keep hanging onto sales on a thread that, for better or worst, is generally about revenue.
 

Boke1879

Member
You need the appropriate context behind that claim as well. Simply stating "Didn't sell as much as Halo 4 LOL!" is misleading. Attach rate is important.

Just look at the UK sales. It about 50% less than other games in the franchise. And based on their PR the sales numbers probably weren't much to gloat about. Again I'm waiting for NPD but we can read between the lines and assume it hasn't matched first week sales compared to other titles in the franchise.
 
Again I'm waiting for NPD but we can read between the lines and assume it hasn't matched first week sales compared to other titles in the franchise.

But NPD is monthly. Are past month 1's for Halo games going to have the same number of weeks as this one?

It might be impossible to do a week 1 to week 1 comparison using NPD.
 

Kayant

Member
Masterful spinning and no NPD mention hmm... I feel this will be really close. If they release a statement early for NPD I think that would point to them losing. Need to adjust my numbers later.
 

QaaQer

Member
I was talking about those who were suddenly dismissing sales numbers altogether, even if they were brought up in a thread about revenue. I honestly don't remember such a shift in narrative when revenue usually takes the backseat of the conversation, if not the trunk.

Admittedly, instigators and trolls don't help much, neither does it help to keep hanging onto sales on a thread that, for better or worst, is generally about revenue.

btw, is it sell in or sell through?
 

Boke1879

Member
And I do think people are jumping the gun a bit anticipating a PS4 win next week just based on this PR. We still have a week guys. Lets just wait and see.
 
But NPD is monthly. Are past month 1's for Halo games going to have the same number of weeks as this one?

It might be impossible to do a week 1 to week 1 comparison using NPD.
This is a good point.
GFK is weekly, that's easy to compare. NPD with monthly data is not really sharp.
On the other hand I would think total pre-orders, counted for day one (?) make more sales than week three or four after release. Or?
 

Javin98

Banned
I still can't get over that "best rated XB1 exclusive FPS of 2015" line. I mean surely they realize that people aren't that dumb right? Everybody knows it's the ONLY XB1 exclusive FPS. The way MS spins makes it seem like they think everyone are clueless morons.
Well, the dumber or shall I say, more delusional someone is, the easier it is for them to take the bait, so I would say Microsoft does hope everyone are clueless morons. ;)
 

Rymuth

Member
Good point. It's easy to forget we aren't the intended audience for these little PR blurbs and it definitely explains the fearlessly brazen spin. The actual intended audience may genuinely not know any better.
Funny you should mention that-

Mehdi said it's "hard to say" what the mainstream consumer will make of the device, but believes they won't look into the details.

"I think it's fair to say there's a segment of consumers at this show in particular who really pay attention, who are very passionate about all aspects of gaming, and that we listen to closely," said Mehdi. "In a broader set of community, people don't pay attention to a lot of the details. We've seen it in the research, we've seen it in a lot of the data points."
Different situations but I believe the takeaway is the same - the broader community don't pay attention. At least, that's what they believe.
 

Shenmue

Banned
27-31.

NPD will give 5 full days of Halo 5.

Hmmm how many days has previous NPDs given for the past Halo games?

I think perhaps Halo 3 may be the only one that is even close in terms of days? It released on September 25, 2007 and there were 30 days in that month.
 

Boke1879

Member
People were mostly basing it on the Amazon monthly rankings. MS' vague as fuck PR is not helping matters.

Oh no I agree. The info we have in this thread points to the PS4 trending above the One.

To another point. I do know NPD is monthly but this 5 days of tracking we'll still see it's strongest sales....No doubt Holiday season and Black Friday will help Halo but it'll also be up against 2 other strong MP games as well.

So November will be a good indicator for Halo as well I guess.
 
Hmmm how many days has previous NPDs given for the past Halo games?

I think perhaps Halo 3 may be the only one that is even close in terms of days? It released on September 25, 2007 and there were 30 days in that month.

Yeah, that's the question. Unless the month 1 numbers are so far off that makes the comparison a bit silly to begin with.
 

Elios83

Member
And I do think people are jumping the gun a bit anticipating a PS4 win next week just based on this PR. We still have a week guys. Lets just wait and see.

Yeah the PR doesn't tell us anything about hardware sales. We can only expect Halo 5 software numbers to be less than what Halo 4 and Halo 3 did.
On Amazon PS4 won but there are also preorders to consider. They will be close.
 

Boke1879

Member
The story for me is the difference in ideology. One mindset is that a price cut drives a lot of hardware sales while the other is that adding value (using bundles) does.

Should be really interesting.

I think both does. Both MS and Sony have been offering value since the start of the gen. I definitely think a price cut has longer term effect.
 

mejin

Member
And I do think people are jumping the gun a bit anticipating a PS4 win next week just based on this PR. We still have a week guys. Lets just wait and see.

It's just the opposite now. Along the year people were telling october would be easy for XB1 cause Halo 5.
But Sony cut the price early than anyone expected and it seems it worked very well. Now we see Microsoft releasing a hell of PR for the game instead of simple numbers. So there are reasons some don't see XB1 winning october anymore. Like you said we just have to wait.
 

Boke1879

Member
It's just the opposite now. Along the year people were telling october would be easy for XB1 cause Halo 5.
But Sony cut the price early than anyone expected and it seems it worked very well. Now we see Microsoft releasing a hell of PR for the game instead of simple numbers. So there are reasons some don't see XB1 winning october anymore. Like you said we just have to wait.

Yea early in the year it was pretty much a given that XB1 would win.
 
It's just the opposite now. Along the year people were telling october would be easy for XB1 cause Halo 5.
But Sony cut the price early than anyone expected and it seems it worked very well. Now we see Microsoft releasing a hell of PR for the game instead of simple numbers. So there are reasons some don't see XB1 winning october anymore. Like you said we just have to wait.
We should not mix things up.
PR was about Halo, not console sales.
So, even if Halo underperformed compared to previous entries it could have moved enough consoles to win the month in hardware sales.
 
But NPD is monthly. Are past month 1's for Halo games going to have the same number of weeks as this one?

It might be impossible to do a week 1 to week 1 comparison using NPD.

I expect a LOT of this come NPD. It and digital are going to be the go to I assume.

Though I mean it is a fair assessment. It will have a shorter time to sell
 

FerDS

Member
They had some gems during PS3, to be fair. I remember a few regarding rumble. One PR excuse was they felt the Sixaxis motion control was the future and rumble was the past. Another I recall was that rumble would keep the Sixasis motion control from functioning properly. Then came the DualShock 3 with both rumble and Sixasis.

Funnily enough, both of those were from Phil Harrison
 

mejin

Member
We should not mix things up.
PR was about Halo, not console sales.
So, even if Halo underperformed compared to previous entries it could have moved enough consoles to win the month in hardware sales.

uhum, that's right. it's not my intention to cause misunderstandings. I just wanted to say early price cut put some doubts on that easy win for Microsoft in october.
 
I still personally think Xbox One will win the NPD. Clearly there's been a decline in Halo, but my guess is that it still did pretty darn well. I'd also imagine it did best in America, and much of the decline is coming from elsewhere.
 
Halo 3, 4, and Reach opening NPDs were what again?

Sep 2007 for 3, Sep 2010 for Reach, Nov 2012 for 4

But release dates are really going to mess with the comp. 25 Sep 2007 for Halo 3, 14 September 2010 for Halo Reach and 6 November 2012 for Halo 4.

So, like 1 week for Halo 3, 2-3 weeks for Reach, 4+ weeks for Halo 4?

And Halo 5 is only going to have one week and be in October?

Super messy comp. Even looking at month 1 of NPD is going to be misleading due to this.

Oh well.
 
Sep 2007 for 3, Sep 2010 for Reach, Nov 2012 for 4

But release dates are really going to mess with the comp. 25 Sep 2007 for Halo 3, 14 September 2010 for Halo Reach and 6 November 2012 for Halo 4.

So, like 1 week for Halo 3, 2-3 weeks for Reach, 4+ weeks for Halo 4?

And Halo 5 is only going to have one week and be in October?

Super messy comp. Even looking at month 1 of NPD is going to be misleading due to this.

Oh well.

I mean Halo 5 will be under all 3 launch aligned regardless more than likely
 
uhum, that's right. it's not my intention to cause misunderstandings. I just wanted to say early price cut put some doubts on that easy win for Microsoft in october.
No problem. I think most here share this thought.
I'm sure that there are not many NPD threads where estimates have been changed so often. When you went through the pages in a few days you will barely see any estimates without the remark "edited".

The price cut really was a very nasty move. But if you have no games, what else can you do?
 

ethomaz

Banned
Sep 2007 for 3, Sep 2010 for Reach, Nov 2012 for 4

But release dates are really going to mess with the comp. 25 Sep 2007 for Halo 3, 14 September 2010 for Halo Reach and 6 November 2012 for Halo 4.

So, like 1 week for Halo 3, 2-3 weeks for Reach, 4+ weeks for Halo 4?

And Halo 5 is only going to have one week and be in October?

Super messy comp. Even looking at month 1 of NPD is going to be misleading due to this.

Oh well.
2 weeks for Halo 3... the NPD ended on Oct 6 because Sep was 5 weeks.

Even so Halo 3 did the same with less days and the slowest month lol

Edit - 3 weeks for Reach.
 
Funnily enough, both of those were from Phil Harrison

Didn't he recently leave Microsoft.

Edit- Yup. Back in April.

The funniest thing to me about Phil Harrison during his career at Microsoft (he joined in 2012) was E3 2013. In 2013, Sony had their legendary conference hours after Microsoft held there's. Guess who authorized Mark Cerny to be system architect. Yup. Phil Harrison. At least that's what Mark Cerny said in an interview.

Edit- http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/191007/inside_the_playstation_4_with_mark_.php?print=1

Realizing how passionate he was about the PlayStation 4 project, after Thanksgiving, Cerny went to Sony's then-execs Phil Harrison and Masa Chatani, "and asked if I could lead the next generation effort. And to my great surprise, they said yes."
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Next week will really be like that epic Titanfall thread all over again if PS4 really won October.

No, not at this level.

PS4 > XB1 this NPD is a thing that many guys expect. There is nothing of shocking. ( unless the gap will be crazy huge, but still)

PS4 > XB1 in March NPD was totally unexpect by 90% of users.
 
Eh, I'd say this will be on par with the Titanfall thread. Only those posting in this thread are debating about who will win. I suspect the majority outside of this thread assume X1 will take it and they will be shocked finding out that the PS4 sold the most. Especially after that PR today.
 

Elios83

Member
Didn't he recently leave Microsoft.

Edit- Yup. Back in April.

The funniest thing to me about Phil Harrison during his career at Microsoft (he joined in 2012) was E3 2013. In 2013, Sony had their legendary conference hours after Microsoft held there's. Guess who authorized Mark Cerny to be system architect. Yup. Phil Harrison. At least that's what Mark Cerny said in an interview.

Do you remember where you read that?
Phil Harrison left Sony in early 2008 and was the president of WWS. Wasn't it too early and not his role to choose someone as the system architect for the PS4?
 
Do you remember where you read that?
Phil Harrison left Sony in early 2008 and was the president of WWS. Wasn't it too early and not his role to choose someone as the system architect for the PS4?

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/191007/inside_the_playstation_4_with_mark_.php?print=1

Realizing how passionate he was about the PlayStation 4 project, after Thanksgiving, Cerny went to Sony's then-execs Phil Harrison and Masa Chatani, "and asked if I could lead the next generation effort. And to my great surprise, they said yes."

It's a fantastic read about Cerny's postmortem of PS3 and realizing how much he wanted to lead development of PS4.
 
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