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[Mr. Enigma]

Holy shit. Did someone just apologize on the Internet?

 

[Windu]

Pence is probably about a 105-115 wRC+ hitter when you take out the luck. Nothing special. Good fielder though, i'd say his true talent level is around a 3 win player. Good solid player that will be overpayed. But i guess, since the phillies have a short window its worth it, still don't know why ibanez is still on the team, pence is a big upgrade over him, but not much upgrade over brown.

 

[AbortedWalrusFetus]

Well yes obviously Pence is the better acquisition long term because Beltran wasn't a long term pickup.

The Phillies have no payroll flexibility going into next season, there's a good chance they will actually be looking to unload some money off the books to create some flexibility. Pence will get somewhere around 25 million over the next 2 seasons. He wasn't an asset to the Astros precisely because he was getting about market value for who he (and that they're barely a 60 win team)

I like Pence as a player, I just find it stunning that people think he's a franchise cornerstone because he's played great for 10 games in a Phillies uniform.

And that $15 million is a ludicrous figure. The Mets owed $6 million to Beltran before they traded him to the Giants and they basically picked up the entire tab. The Giants just paid for that in giving up a big time prospect for him.

We might have a different definition of cornerstone players then. Victorino and Pence have very similar numbers, and I think a lot of people view Victorino as a cornerstone player. He's certainly been more of one than Howard this year.

 

[CajoleJuice]

People view Victorino as a cornerstone player? Really? He's definitely having a great year, but it's kinda out of nowhere. He was always a solid player, but this year he's pretty insane. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up next year and beyond.

Oh wait, not interesting, I hope he dies.

Edit: darkside is right, though.

 

[darkside31337]

We might have a different definition of cornerstone players then. Victorino and Pence have very similar numbers, and I think a lot of people view Victorino as a cornerstone player. He's certainly been more of one than Howard this year.

Victorino is at least on par with Pence offensively while being a plus defender at a premium position. He's pretty much the most underrated player on the Phillies and is simply a much better player than Ryan Howard this season.

But i guess, since the phillies have a short window its worth it, still don't know why ibanez is still on the team, pence is a big upgrade over him, but not much upgrade over brown.

You can't trust young players over grizzled veterans.

How could the Phillies survive without Raul Ibanez .289 OBP and his "defense"?

I don't have anything against the Phillies approach towards prospects in general. In a time where every GM is perhaps overvaluing prospects, Amaro just says screw that and does his own thing.

Flags fly forever. Trading Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge looks awful now. d'Arnaud looks like he might be something special and losing out on Gose might suck in the near future (dear god that Wallace for Gose trade was something else) but flags do indeed fly forever.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Wasn't Victorino a case like Uggla where he bounced around a lot through the Rule 5 draft before he made it?

 

[AbortedWalrusFetus]

People view Victorino as a cornerstone player? Really? He's definitely having a great year, but it's kinda out of nowhere. He was always a solid player, but this year he's pretty insane. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up next year and beyond.

Oh wait, not interesting, I hope he dies.

Edit: darkside is right, though.

Haha, the Victorino hate is wonderful

And yeah, I really do think people view Victorino as the cornerstone to the OF here in Philly. He's the only guy they've had and know they will have for some time that continually produces for them in the OF.

 

[CajoleJuice]

Haha, the Victorino hate is wonderful

And yeah, I really do think people view Victorino as the cornerstone to the OF here in Philly. He's the only guy they've had and know they will have for some time that continually produces for them in the OF.

You could definitely do worse; I might just have high standards for "cornerstone." Victorino is a really solid player. But fuck him.

 

[AbortedWalrusFetus]

You could definitely do worse; I might just have high standards for "cornerstone." Victorino is a really solid player. But fuck him.

I'm just glad we'll have Mayberry when he goes on his suspension. I really like Mayberry and I've been waiting for years for him to have a solid chance to play. They should just dump Ibanez and let Mayberry play until they feel Brown is ready. At least I'd have fun watching him.

 

[Windu]

Wasn't Victorino a case like Uggla where he bounced around a lot through the Rule 5 draft before he made it?

yeah i think the dodgers picked him up in the rule 5 but because he is a douchebag they didn't want him, understandable.

 

[darkside31337]

Wasn't Victorino a case like Uggla where he bounced around a lot through the Rule 5 draft before he made it?

Yeah. Victorino was Rule 5'd by the Padres then got sent back to the Dodgers, then a couple years later was a Rule 5 by the Phillies and then he got sent back to the Dodgers again. Dodgers literally didn't want him back so the Phillies got to keep him.

From a Fangraphs post a month ago:
Outfielders with more WAR than Victorino, 2006-2011: Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun, Ichiro Suzuki, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran.

First baseman with more WAR than Howard, 2006-2011: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee

That OF list is pretty hilarious since a bunch of guys fell off from those peaks pretty hard. Ichiro mainly because of age, Beltran in large part to injuries, Werth and Crawford are pretty inexplicable.

 

[sf2fanatic]

Yeah. Victorino was Rule 5'd by the Padres then got sent back to the Dodgers, then a couple years later was a Rule 5 by the Phillies and then he got sent back to the Dodgers again. Dodgers literally didn't want him back so the Phillies got to keep him.

From a Fangraphs post a month ago:
Outfielders with more WAR than Victorino, 2006-2011: Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun, Ichiro Suzuki, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran.

First baseman with more WAR than Howard, 2006-2011: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee

That OF list is pretty hilarious since a bunch of guys fell off from those peaks pretty hard. Ichiro mainly because of age, Beltran in large part to injuries, Werth and Crawford are pretty inexplicable.

Do you think its age or is it the fact hes gotta do alot more for the team like Kemp does too? Lately Kemp has been swinging at almost everything because how bad the run issue is with the Dodgers.

 

[darkside31337]

Do you think its age or is it the fact hes gotta do alot more for the team like Kemp does too? Lately Kemp has been swinging at almost everything because how bad the run issue is with the Dodgers.

The Mariners have sucked for way more than a year though.

It's not really that Ichiro is trying to do too much. Ichiro has legendary batting practice power that has never translated to actual game power and a lot of people say it's simply because he refused to implement it into his game.

So I don't buy the Ichiro is trying too hard approach. It's way more likely he doesn't just give a damn because they suck so much, but more probable that he's simply just done.

 

[Windu]

File under “dog bites man”.

For the second consecutive game, Fredi Gonzalez has opted to play Jose Constanza over Jason Heyward. Jose Constanza is a 27-year-old career minor-league scrub who was sporting a robust .712 OPS at AAA before being called up. Heyward’s OPS in the *major leagues* this year is .720.

In a completely unsurprising development, Fredi’s justification for doing so is incredibly dumb: “going with the hot hand”. Not that I would expect anything different from the man who willingly uses Scott Proctor before Craig Kimbrel in an elimination inning of a tie game, but the stupidity continues to amaze–while failing to surprise.

A summary of the findings on the hot hand fallacy from The Book, chapter 2 (When You’re Hot, You’re Hot):

Knowing that a hitter has been in or is in the midst of a hot or cold streak has little predictive value. Always assume that a player will hit at his projected norm (adjusted for the park, weather, and the pitcher he is facing), regardless of how well he has performed in the very recent past.

Here’s the thing about being “hot”: as far as human beings can tell it is always past-tense. A player isn’t hot, he *was* hot. You and I and Fredi have no idea whether or not he still is. Treating him as such is a sign of utter incompetence.

Here’s the thing, though. Jose Constanza was not hot. He is incredibly lucky that he hasn’t been a complete drain thus far. Most players who have been “hot” were partially lucky, but Jose Constanza’s production thus far has been almost entirely a product of good luck. I could cite his batting average on balls in play or BACON, but I figured since we’re dealing with a player whose played 10 big league games, it would be better to just watch the games and summarize my findings.

Jose Constanza has 13 singles and 3 extra-base hits through his first 10 games. The 13 singles are:

1) Ground-ball single barely past Omar Infante.
2) Solid ground-ball single the other way in the 5.5 hole.
3) Pathetic ground-ball down the 3B line. Infield single.
4) Solid ground-ball single in the 3.5 hole.
5) Straight up Baltimore chop over Livan Hernandez's head. Infield single.
6) We have a line-drive, ladies and gentlemen! Through the 5.5 hole.
7) Bloop single that fell right behind the infield dirt at third.
8) Line-drive through the 3.5 hole.
9) Pathetic ground-ball that the pitcher failed to field. Infield single.
10) Bloop, weak fly ball to left that Jason Bay probably should have caught.
11) Pathetic ground-ball that the pitcher failed to field. Infield single.
12) Bloop fly ball to left field that he DROPPED THE BAT WHILE HITTING.
13) Bloop fly ball to left field.

So there it is. 13 singles, 8 of them either bloop hits or infield singles. You don’t need me to tell you that’s not sustainable, nor is it indicative of playing well. Getting fielders to screw up fielding grounders or getting weak fly balls to drop in no man’s land is not a skill, it’s luck, and there’s no reason for us to expect that luck to continue past yesterday.
Now that we’ve established that Jose Constanza was not actually “hot”, just lucky, a few reasons why Fredi might think he is:

He’s just looking at the stats sheet and observing results, rather than actual performance. The average fan can do that.

Confirmation bias of a speedy player achieving good results. We know Fredi irrationally loves speed, to the point that he’s willing to sacrifice other, more important qualities to get it in the line-up. Jordan Schafer was the team’s leadoff hitter for a third of the season even though he can’t hit, for example.

Confirmation bias of a career minor-leaguer with clearly limited physical tools achieving good results. Baseball fans love to root for the overachiever.

At any rate, succumbing to any of the above is doing his team a disservice. Yes, Jason Heyward hasn’t played particularly well this year, primarily due to injuries. He’s still performed better than anyone can reasonably expect Jose Constanza to. 8 lucky singles in 10 games doesn’t change that. I do appreciate and applaud what Constanza has done as a fill-in–I really do–but expecting him to continue to be a regular-quality player is something clueless people do. Fredi Gonzalez should know this and play the better player. But he doesn’t, because as I’ve said so many times:

Fredi. Gonzalez. Does. Not. Get. It.

http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=4749

 

[darkside31337]

Honestly it's hard to take that seriously when he turned off comments on CAC because some Braves fans had the audacity to defend Fredi's position of Constanza over Heyward.

I hope Constanza keeps it up for the rest of the season just to stick it to him.

 

[Windu]

well the comments were turning into AJC and atlantabraves.com comments because of the ESPN connection. understandable. There is still twitter.

 

[darkside31337]

I still don't get why it's a Constanza vs Heyward argument.

Eric Hinske can play RF and he isn't some defensive albatross. He can hit righties (admittedly he is Adam Dunn awful against lefties). He's been better than both Constanza and Heyward this season.

Nobody cried when Eric Hinske was riding the pine on his birthday the other day against the Mets. Is there a reason why he's not even considered an option or am I just missing something?

 

[Windu]

I still don't get why it's a Constanza vs Heyward argument.

Eric Hinske can play RF and he isn't some defensive albatross. He can hit righties (admittedly he is Adam Dunn awful against lefties). He's been better than both Constanza and Heyward this season.

Nobody cried when Eric Hinske was riding the pine on his birthday the other day against the Mets. Is there a reason why he's not even considered an option or am I just missing something?

i have no idea why hinske isn't playing. (well the manager not knowing what he is doing is probably a good reason) I wouldn't mind a platoon of prado and hinske myself. Prado can always find more playing time in the infield to give others a day off if need be.

 

[bluemax]

Do you think its age or is it the fact hes gotta do alot more for the team like Kemp does too? Lately Kemp has been swinging at almost everything because how bad the run issue is with the Dodgers.

Ichiro has the lowest BABIP of his career by 60 points.

He's running the second lowest infield hit percentage of his ML career.

So he's been a combination of unlucky and probably slower.

 

[JaskoX1]

Breaking news curtis granderson says tigers club house full of steroids for years. mlb investigating

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Windu, you've seriously lost your mind if still don't see that Constanza has it right now and Heyward doesn't.

Constanza is kicking ass right now. Heyward has sucked ass since May 1. Constanza is also hitting lefties well, something Heyward hasn't done all year.

With all the trouble the Braves have had with offense, I'm keeping Constanza in there until his bat goes cold.

CAC is a fucking pathetic site that no Braves fan should ever read and/or take seriously. They've hated Fredi since the day he was introduced. It's not an impartial blog whatsoever. Dumbass articles like that only serve to enhance the reasons why no one should read it other than to laugh at how absurd it is.

Put your boner away for Heyward and enjoy what Constanza is doing right now.

 

[Doytch]

So...I'm guessing we offer Edwin arb this year?

Correction: Pick up his 3.5m option?

 

[carlos]

Honestly it's hard to take that seriously when he turned off comments on CAC because some Braves fans had the audacity to defend Fredi's position of Constanza over Heyward.

I hope Constanza keeps it up for the rest of the season just to stick it to him.

agreed, on both counts

 

[Doytch]

Jennings Watch: He's played 16.2 games this year and has 8 SB. Stealing at that rate when it's his first look at a lot of these pitchers' moves? Damn son.

 

[Windu]

Windu, you've seriously lost your mind if still don't see that Constanza has it right now and Heyward doesn't.

Constanza is kicking ass right now. Heyward has sucked ass since May 1. Constanza is also hitting lefties well, something Heyward hasn't done all year.

With all the trouble the Braves have had with offense, I'm keeping Constanza in there until his bat goes cold.

CAC is a fucking pathetic site that no Braves fan should ever read and/or take seriously. They've hated Fredi since the day he was introduced. It's not an impartial blog whatsoever. Dumbass articles like that only serve to enhance the reasons why no one should read it other than to laugh at how absurd it is.

Put your boner away for Heyward and enjoy what Constanza is doing right now.

we had schafer bat leadoff for most of the season, i doubt fredi is going to pull him when it goes cold, he will pull him 2 months after he goes cold. And constanza is just getting lucky, something that is not sustainable and if you were to predict who would have the better next at bat, you use career numbers, and those say to use Heyward. And of course i hope constanza keeps this up, but he won't and thinking he is the better option is foolish.

and fredi has not had one game this year that he has managed correctly, that is why they haven't liked him from day one. (and no, we are not winning because of him, we are winning despite him)

 

[Doytch]

we had schafer bat leadoff for most of the season, i doubt fredi is going to pull him when it goes cold, he will pull him 2 months after he goes cold. And constanza is just getting lucky, something that is not sustainable and if you were to predict who would have the better next at bat, you use career numbers, and those say to use Heyward. And of course i hope constanza keeps this up, but he won't and thinking he is the better option is foolish.

This assumes Heyward isn't hurt. I'm not making that assumption.

 

[Windu]

This assumes Heyward isn't hurt. I'm not making that assumption.

well if he is hurt then they should dl him, if not, play him.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

As a supplement to what I said earlier, I like that Fredi has the balls to do stuff like go with the hot hand and tell Heyward to sit down. Also, moving Chipper down to #5 so Freeman and Uggla's sync don't get messed with is a great move, even more so considering Chipper's average with runners on base this season is one of the best in MLB.

Bobby Cox would have never done any of that. It was like pulling teeth in 2009 to finally get him to give up on Kelly Johnson in favor of Martin Prado. Only Johnson going on the DL forced him into the change. And in his mind, Chipper is #3 no matter what.

I'm not saying he should give up on Heyward or that Constanza is the RF of the future. Not at all. Heyward will likely bounce back in a big way in 2012. But the Braves offense has sucked all year. Constanza is providing a huge spark right now, something Heyward hasn't done all year.

 

[Celsior]

A hit by a Yankee DH, my god

 

[Mr. Enigma]

I also like the fact that the douche bag who wrote that Fredi/Heyward article turned off comments. What a coward.

 

[Doytch]

well if he is hurt then they should dl him, if not, play him.

team needs him. they're all banged up, can't just sit on the sidelines while the rest of the boys keep battling.

 

[carlos]

Constanza should've been given a chance much earlier in the season, probably after Matt Young got sent down, the guy hit around .350 for most of the year in the minors.

I'd like to believe that this isn't a hot streak (well obviously .400 isn't sustainable), but perhaps he can contribute more than Young, McLouth or Schafer ever did.

I'd still like a healthy Heyward in the lineup, but those grounders to second are reminding me too much of Escobar or Andruw grounding to short. Btw, Prado should be getting more criticism for his sub par play, perhaps it's due to the defensive changes he's had to go through, but I wouldn't mind giving him some days off too.

 

[Windu]

I also like the fact that the douche bag who wrote that Fredi/Heyward article turned off comments. What a coward.

well what he really needed to do was to get some moderators, but he was doing all of the moderation himself and approving all of the posts from new people, apparently it took up too much time. But i don't fault him for that, there a lot of stupid people that started posting because of the espn link among other things.

 

[h3ro]

 

[Jubs]

It's the man's birthday. You gotta let him play on his birthday.

 

[darkside31337]

Curtis Granderson watching Eduardo Nunez taking some fielding practice.

 

[The Frankman]

I am not a mets hater at all. I normally dont even think about them. I just hate players like Beltran, the guy always looks so miserable. That is the reason I didnt want the Phils to get him, and why I am so happy they got Pence. The Phils really needed a high energy guy, and Pence is that in spades. I complained about Werth last year when he was a Phillie also, he had that same dour look on his face that Beltran always has.

... are you the new Jon? Because the amount of wrong in your posts is hilarious.

Actually Jon was never wrong this much when he joined.

 

[ConradCervantes]

Where the hell is Jon? The way the Phillies are playing, that front-running son of a bitch should be all over this thread.

 

[clemenx]

Actually, he probably doesn't know how to deal with a team this good, he really was a self depreciating fan. Jon was cool

 

[The Frankman]

Actually, he probably doesn't know how to deal with a team this good, he really was a self depreciating fan. Jon was cool

Outside of the whole "Howard >>>>> Utley" and "Utley wasn't clutch" thing 2-3 years ago.

 

[Doytch]

UNF UNF UNF BRE UNF TT UNF UNF LAW UNF UNF UNF UNF RIE

 

[Enron]

we had schafer bat leadoff for most of the season, i doubt fredi is going to pull him when it goes cold, he will pull him 2 months after he goes cold. And constanza is just getting lucky, something that is not sustainable and if you were to predict who would have the better next at bat, you use career numbers, and those say to use Heyward. And of course i hope constanza keeps this up, but he won't and thinking he is the better option is foolish.

and fredi has not had one game this year that he has managed correctly, that is why they haven't liked him from day one. (and no, we are not winning because of him, we are winning despite him)

Agree on Heyward. Anyone that thinks Freddi is a competent manager is, well, I don't know. I don't want to be rude to fellow Braves fans.

Freddi was so damn competent, that the freaking MARLINS fired him. The MARLINS.

 

[Malo]

So Burnett dyed his hair...

 

[Axion22]

I'm not in on LeBlanc anymore.

 

[rando14]

Pineda having a crappy day.

 

[The Frankman]

Hey Kyle Blanks, I hope you get kicked in the face.

 

[weekend_warrior]

Here comes Bumett.

 

[Meohsix]

Home run then a walk, time to take out AJ

 

[Dragon]

Wow McClelland you have an awful strike zone tonight.

 

[Doytch]

Edwin madly swinging his arms while rounding second is hilarious and makes me want to forgive him for all the horrible errors he's committed. Almost.