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[artist]

*cue irfan and nomg wrong to shit up the thread.

You need a bait & switch tag.

TF2 will hit 400 million, but 450 million is pretty much a lost cause now. Worldwide I'll expect a total of 800-850 million or so. Can't wait for Unicron in TF3!

450M? This wont touch DMC. WW I expect the total to be 875-900M. Chances of hitting 400M are looking good even if it falls short slightly, Paramount will keep it in theatres long enough to overtake SM1.

Honestly, who really cares. If TF2 is as bad as everyone says it is, and the public agrees (I thought it was terrible), then TF3 won't have a record opening, it won't cross 400 million, and it won't do nearly as well as TF2 did. That said, TF2 WILL NOT touch DMC, and there is no chance in hell it will reach 450 million. Even 400 million is not a lock.

That said, if you want to see bad WOM at work, just look at Bruno's drop. If you want to see a bad drop for a blockbuster film, just look at every single HP film. A 60% drop is bad, but, going into its 3rd and 4th weekend, SM3 had drops of around 50%, which is worse than TF2. HBP's chances of hitting 300 million are around the same as TF2's chances of hitting 400 million, just because of how insanely frontloaded the series is.

Anyways, all the TF2 haters can rest easy knowing that Bay won't even have the biggest film of the year, domestic or worldwide.

Spoiler

I have faith in Cameron

Not quite true IMO. I think its more of a limited fanbase on Potter. Its not growing much (except for the last book) and the bigger opening means a bigger drop there afterwards. HBP was postponed six months which led to pent up demand among Potter fans which is why the midnight record was broken easily. This is tracking 1-2M daily ahead of OOTP and its already 20M ahead of it (thanks to the midnight grosses). OOTP grossed 292M, so chances of 300M+ are good.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Transformers 2 will limp along to $400 million. It has no chance at $450 and might, just might, hit $420.

I doubt Bay and Co. will cry over that though.

 

[LM4sure]

Damn, what a drop for Bruno!

Well at least the Transformers 2 fans can say at least TF2 didn't drop as much as Bruno! :lol

TF2 sucks! Hope it doesn't make $400M!!

 

[Ceres]

Not quite true IMO. I think its more of a limited fanbase on Potter. Its not growing much (except for the last book) and the bigger opening means a bigger drop there afterwards. HBP was postponed six months which led to pent up demand among Potter fans which is why the midnight record was broken easily. This is tracking 1-2M daily ahead of OOTP and its already 20M ahead of it (thanks to the midnight grosses). OOTP grossed 292M, so chances of 300M+ are good.

Which will be the first one since the original. I also noticed this is PG unlike the last two so the lower rating might bring a few more families to the movie.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

As much as I dislike TF2 fanboy ranting here, I think that's a really good drop for this week. I dunno about 400M, but I wouldn't be ragging on it for its BO performance.

 

[MIMIC]

Hmmmm....maybe I need to check out "The Hangover". The word-of-mouth for this film is incredible. I haven't seen it yet because the promos leave me VERY disinterested.

I don't have a crap about Bruno. I thought Borat was incredibly overrated and was left with everyone and their mother doing lame impressions. DO NOT WANT

 

[ZeoVGM]

Hmmmm....maybe I need to check out "The Hangover". The word-of-mouth for this film is incredible. I haven't seen it yet because the promos leave me VERY disinterested.

I don't have a crap about Bruno. I thought Borat was incredibly overrated and was left with everyone and their mother doing lame impressions. DO NOT WANT

Well it doesn't look like you'll be hearing lots of Bruno impressions from people!

 

[Jokergrin]

why the hell did Up cost 175 million to make?

 

[ZephyrFate]

Ich don't know.

 

[AniHawk]

The Hangover is now the third best-performing R-rated film in the US ever, behind The Passion of the Christ ($370m at #1) and The Matrix Reloaded ($281m at #2).

I don't think anyone would've ever expected that.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

why the hell did Up cost 175 million to make?

Animation's expensive, yo.

I'm not surprised at Bruno dropping like a stone. It had a lot of hype built up for it (Borat II), but the shock value of some of the scenes were too much for a wider audience. At least from my girlfriend's reaction, the truly funny bits (interviews) were completely overshadowed by gags like the screaming pen0r and the psychic scene etc.

 

[Lebron]

why the hell did Up cost 175 million to make?

Pixar flicks always have high budgets.

 

[Revelations]

Maybe because kids like Harry Potter?

*umad.jpg?* (amidoinitrite, GAF?)

I'm surprised Transformers 2 is doing good, given how much everyone panned it.

Theres really not much competition technically...

 

[Veidt]

Animation's expensive, yo.

I'm not surprised at Bruno dropping like a stone. It had a lot of hype built up for it (Borat II), but the shock value of some of the scenes were too much for a wider audience. At least from my girlfriend's reaction, the truly funny bits (interviews) were completely overshadowed by gags like the screaming pen0r and the psychic scene etc.

I have the same feeling. Borat was great, because it seems like one of those acts that should be done only once. The only way for Bruno to surpass Borat, is to be even more daring and provocative [ which is damn near impossible]. And for most people something that far out, is a bit too much.

 

[Revelations]

So what's next? G.I Joe right? Will it make the cut? Is there even a morsel of anticipation for it??

 

[jtb]

So what's next? G.I Joe right? Will it make the cut?

I expect (and hope) GI Joe to bomb horribly. I mean, it looks terrible, and this is the way I see it:

T4 had superb marketing, was terrible: grossed 125 million
GI Joe has average marketing, will be terrible: <125 million

Also, it's an August release, which is past the July Blockbuster season.

This is not going to pull a Transformers. Not even close.

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Will it make the cut?

lol hell no

 

[Revelations]

I expect (and hope) GI Joe to bomb horribly. I mean, it looks terrible, and this is the way I see it:

T4 had superb marketing, was terrible: grossed 125 million
GI Joe has average marketing, will be terrible: <125 million

Also, it's an August release, which is past the July Blockbuster season.

This is not going to pull a Transformers. Not even close.

Well you see the thing about it is that it dosnt have much competition when it release. I mean theres literall no opposition for it. So I expect it to have a strong opening for the half of August. And then District 9 will overtake it on August 14th and carry the momentum over it for the rest of the summer.

 

[ViperVisor]

why the hell did Up cost 175 million to make?

I watched Metropolis *anime* yesterday and it touted its cost of $15 mil in 2001 in the bonus feature.

CGI movies have the same problem as video games now. Is GTA4 10x the game GTA3 was?

Metropolis in a few spots stumbles but if you put in $2.5 mil more you could smooth that out. And then it is still 1/10th the cost of UP!.

 

[ZephyrFate]

Metropolis the anime is such a great movie.

 

[jtb]

Well you see the thing about it is that it dosnt have much competition when it release. I mean theres literall no opposition for it. So I expect it to have a strong opening for the half of August. And then District 9 will overtake it on August 14th and carry the momentum over it for the rest of the summer.

I get that there's no competition, but the whole August release kind of negates that IMO. Don't think it will perform well, maybe break 100 million. Maybe

 

[sonicmj1]

Funnily enough, I was just on this page.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm

How is Hellboy 2 number 48 on that list with a 70% drop?

That movie was fantastic.

 

[Decado]

How is Hellboy 2 number 48 on that list with a 70% drop?

That movie was fantastic.

...it also opened the weekend before The Dark Knight....

 

[Decado]

I watched Metropolis *anime* yesterday and it touted its cost of $15 mil in 2001 in the bonus feature.

CGI movies have the same problem as video games now. Is GTA4 10x the game GTA3 was?

Metropolis in a few spots stumbles but if you put in $2.5 mil more you could smooth that out. And then it is still 1/10th the cost of UP!.

Traditional 2D animation is still expensive. Look at the budget for Disney pics just before they went CGI. More than a few $100+m pics, and that was many years ago.

 

[jtb]

...it also opened the weekend before The Dark Knight....

Awww, Hellboy didn't even hit 100 million, that is dissapointing (though opening in front of the Dark Knight and after Hancock was downright stupid: people are either going to see Batman or Will Smith)

 

[Dan]

Well you see the thing about it is that it dosnt have much competition when it release. I mean theres literall no opposition for it. So I expect it to have a strong opening for the half of August. And then District 9 will overtake it on August 14th and carry the momentum over it for the rest of the summer.

District 9 has an R rating and no known actors. Don't underestimate teens that see every shitty thing that gets released in the summer. They'll be going to GI Joe and that Jeremy Piven comedy.

I'd love to see District 9 do really well, but audiences rarely take for anything new and interesting.

 

[ViperVisor]

Metropolis the anime is such a great movie.

 

[ZephyrFate]

TIMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[Superman00]

The Hangover is now the third best-performing R-rated film in the US ever, behind The Passion of the Christ ($370m at #1) and The Matrix Reloaded ($281m at #2).

I don't think anyone would've ever expected that.

It deserve it and more. That movie was so damn funny.

 

[jamesinclair]

harry Potter isnt in MIAX on launch date this year thanks to transformers.

As such, expect a 5 million boost in 2 weeks

 

[Baraka in the White House]

TF2 had a good run, especially when it came to busting GAF's balls.

 

[Cipherr]

Fuck, I see Star Trek has slowed. God I really enjoyed that movie. I hope it made enough worldwide to guarantee a sequel.

 

[WyndhamPrice]

Fuck, I see Star Trek has slowed. God I really enjoyed that movie. I hope it made enough worldwide to guarantee a sequel.

I really don't think we have to worry about that, as far as Paramount is concerned it surpassed expectations.

 

[Blader]

Fuck, I see Star Trek has slowed. God I really enjoyed that movie. I hope it made enough worldwide to guarantee a sequel.

Sequel is already being written right now.

 

[Tim-E]

Sequel is already being written right now.

And one of the writers is DAMON FUCKING LINDELOF

 

[Revelations]

District 9 has an R rating and no known actors. Don't underestimate teens that see every shitty thing that gets released in the summer. They'll be going to GI Joe and that Jeremy Piven comedy.

I'd love to see District 9 do really well, but audiences rarely take for anything new and interesting.

Thats actually the ingredients for many out of nowhere movie successes. (R rating, new actors, sci-fi action movie with aliens and robots in it) Plus Peter jacksons name is all over the movie even not as the director his name comes up in the trailer and movie poster big as day. You think that wont bring an audience in itself?

There is an audience for new and fresh movie works. Especially if there is strong word of mouth, excellent reviews and a killer trailer attached.

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

And one of the writers is DAMON FUCKING LINDELOF

is that supposed to inspire confidence in me?

 

[Ceres]

Thats actually the ingredients for many out of nowhere movie successes. Plus Peter jacksons name is all over the movie even not as the director his name comes up in the trailer and movie poster big as day. You think that wont bring an audience in itself?

There is an audience for new and fresh movie works. Especially if there is strong word of mouth, excellent reviews and a killer trailer attached.

I haven't heard Peter Jackson's name mentioned anywhere but on Gaf and I've seen the trailer at least 3x now.

 

[Revelations]

I haven't heard Peter Jackson's name mentioned anywhere but on Gaf and I've seen the trailer at least 3x now.

Whoa, Peter jacksons name is big as day in the trailer, and right over the directors name I might add. Also the same for the poster too. Wow...really?

 

[artist]

I haven't heard Peter Jackson's name mentioned anywhere but on Gaf and I've seen the trailer at least 3x now.

I'm pretty sure all D9 trailers so far have Jackson's mention clear and bold in them.

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

I haven't heard Peter Jackson's name mentioned anywhere but on Gaf and I've seen the trailer at least 3x now.

you havent been watching the trailer very carefully then

 

[Revelations]

you havent been watching the trailer very carefully then

You really dont need to watch it very closely to see it. Thats the thing. I wonder if he even saw either trailers.

 

[Ceres]

I'm pretty sure all D9 trailers so far have Jackson's mention clear and bold in them.

Count the number of times then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz3ppkPWyws

 

[Revelations]

Count the number of times then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz3ppkPWyws

Dude the number of times dont matter. Most movie trailers dont extenuate the point of a Producer's name. The point is that you clearly see it, in bold letters for a few seconds in both trailers. Really, whats your beef?

EDIT: Wtf thats not the trailer...its the viral commercial.

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

Count the number of times then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz3ppkPWyws

it is mentioned
plus this is the actual trailer for the film
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZnpzfcMheA

 

[artist]

Count the number of times then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz3ppkPWyws

Wait .. do you actually know the difference between a trailer and a viral video?

 

[Narag]

Count the number of times then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz3ppkPWyws

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjihaK7HfGs

 

[Ceres]

Um.. this is the actual trailer for the film
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZnpzfcMheA

Well, the thing I posted is the only thing I've seen and it was shown on Sci Fi channel during the Warehouse 13 premiere.

 

[Revelations]

Well, the thing I posted is the only thing I've seen and it was shown on Sci Fi channel during the Warehouse 13 premiere.

That didnt want you to check out the actual trailer for the movie like most do?

 

[bafflewaffle]

TF2 will hit 400 million, but 450 million is pretty much a lost cause now. Worldwide I'll expect a total of 800-850 million or so. Can't wait for Unicron in TF3!

I am lookin forwards to aljolsonbot myself