Not saying Vita sales are gonna do well, but 360 says hi. Japan isn't a good barometer for worldwide sales because the Japanese are odd little creatures.
Sorry, I was specifically talking about handhelds, in which Japan is the most important market. To put it in perspective, in Japan the 3DS sold 120k in one week (Kingdom Hearts launch) compared to the Vita/3DS selling 200-225k in the U.S over 5 weeks. Consoles are not much of a factor in Japan right now but it will be interesting to see how they will react to the Wii U later this year.