Bold 1: a what? I've never seen this item.
Bold 2: that's not how drop rates work, is it
there's a special yellow candy that counts as +3 in candy count that gives +1 atk/hp/rcv or +1 all candy.
It's probability related.
Say story drops have 1% drop rate normally. 2x drop should make that 2%
Every attempt at getting the drop on double drop is 2%. Every run 2% chance of it dropping. 1st run 2% chance of the drop, 384th run 2% chance of the drop. However, there is another number independent of the runs that dictates if something has an X% chance to occur then the more attempts taken the probability of it occurring increases . Comically to me, it's like the gamblers fallacy where you can think something is due.
What it's really saying is that, probability or chance wise if you ran that 384 times you have a pretty darn good chance you'd get it in that many runs at a 2% drop rate otherwise, well you're just really unlucky.
You can also think of it a bit like a parabola graph. most people got it in that big middle part of the graph, some got it on their first run, or first couple they're on the far left side of it, very very few of them. Then there's me far off on the right side, a mirror of the people who got it in their first run or so, there aren't many but some will experience this.
Heck i wouldnt be surprised if there's people who-without counting runs-ended up running a stage 500 or 600 times, grinding away every double drop and half stamina day like say the few people who tried to get bon clay since his release or broggy since his release.
Basically statistics and chance and probability is black magic.
Isn't the average for a drop around 50 - 100 attempts? I know some people can get very unlucky.
Yeah most people will end up in the range of 40-80ish, this number coming from guesstimate of runs cited or how long from their first double drop day attempt, just like some can get really lucky and get that drop first story clear or first farm atttempt, others can take 200 and higher.