On Wednesday the 15th of March the Netherlands will vote on the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the bicameral parliament of the Netherlands, the States General, the other one being the Senate. It has 150 seats which are filled through elections using a party-list proportional representation.
Seats in the Tweede Kamer, once assigned to a person, are final and cannot be taken away by anyone, but they can be voluntarily released.
After all seats are allocated a government is formed, usually based on a majority of the seats. Due to the nationwide party-list system and the low election threshold, it is nearly impossible for one party to win the 76 seats needed for a majority in the House of Representatives. Since the current party-list proportional representation system was introduced in 1918, no party has even approached the number of seats necessary for an outright majority. Parties will need to work together to form a coalition.
Partij Voor de Vrijheid (PVV)
Geert Wilders
Wilders has been in the TK for 18 years, he used to be part of the VVD but split off in 2004 because he refused to consider Turkey as a possible candidate EU member state. His party, the "Freedom Party" is unique in that it only has 1 member, Geert Wilders himself, other PVV followers have no say in the course of the party. He wants to ban the Koran and he wants to leave the EU. He also wants to spend more money on healthcare and the elderly, cut development aid and lower taxes. He is pro-gay rights and pro-Israel.
https://www.pvv.nl/visie.html
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD)
Mark Rutte
Rutte has been the Parliamentary leader of the VVD since 2006. The VVD won the election in 2010 but was forced to form a coalition with the CDA and to being "tolerated" by the PVV. The negotiations took 4 months and only managed to gather the minimum required amount of seats (76). About a year later Wilders withdrew his support and the cabinet collapsed. New elections were called, the VVD won again and this time engaged a coalition with the PvdA. This cabinet, Rutte II, was much more robust and thanks to the good personal relations between Rutte and the senior PvdA members managed to survive various blunders and affairs. The VVD wants a smaller government, lower taxes, less (EU) regulations and a free market. They also want strict immigration rules and more resources for the police and the army.
https://vvd.nl/verkiezingsprogramma
Christen-Democratisch Appel (CDA)
Sybrand Buma
The CDA (Christian Democrats) was founded in 1977 and has been part of all but 3 cabinets since. Buma became the new leader of the CDA after the collapse of Rutte I in 2012 which he blamed on the PVV. They have gone down a lot in the polls since their 43 seats in 2002, but recently they recovered some ground. The party places great focus on family values, community and justice and is pro-EU. They are conservative on various social issues, they want to stop tolerating marihuana and further restrict abortion, prostitution and euthanasia.
https://www.cda.nl/partij/tk2017/verkiezingsprogramma/
Democraten 66 (D66)
Alexander Pechtold
Pechtold has been the leader of D66 for over 10 years and is widely considered to be the nemesis of Wilders. In the past he called Wilders extreme-right and "a danger to the state". D66 was founded 51 years ago with the explicit purpose to improve the democratic process. They have been off and on succeful and occasionally joined a coalition. Their seats have ranged between 24 and 3 through the years, but Pechtold has always been very well regarded and brought some stability. They are very pro-EU and value freedom and equality. They have been instrumental in drafting groundbreaking laws: legalization of gay marriage (2001) and euthanasia (2002).
https://d66.nl/verkiezingsprogramma-samen-sterker-kansen-iedereen/
GroenLinks (GL)
Jesse Klaver
Jesse Klaver is the new hip kid on the block at only 30 years and has had a fair amount of success channeling Obama. The party was founded in '89 and has Pacifist and Communist roots. Through the years, they have always pushed for a cleaner environment and use of renewable resources. Recently they adjusted their economic policy, it is now inspired on Piketty: lower taxes on work, higher taxes on income through capital. They also want to tax higher incomes and sharpen limits on public sector functions. They want to deal with multinationals who dodge taxes (often through the Netherlands).
https://groenlinks.nl/programma
Socialistische Partij (SP)
Emile Roemer
Emile Roemer has been the leader since 2010. SP wants to restructure heathcare and handle everything through a single public fund, as opposed to the current semi-liberalized market structure. They want to raise minimum wage and lower retirement age back to 65, more benefits for the poor and middle class. More taxes for the rich and for big business. They also want to drastically reduce the power of the EU.
https://www.sp.nl/verkiezingsprogramma-2017-pak-de-macht
Partij van de Arbeid (PvdA)
Lodewijk Asscher
The PvdA (Labour) was historically the biggest party in the Netherlands and very influential, but has been struggling recently. During the last few years many people felt that the PvdA lost sight of their constituents. It didn't help that their new labour law was a total faillure. But recently they replaced their previous leader Samson with Asscher (who btw is reponsible for that labour law) and have started to distance themselves from the VVD. Prominent members include Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Vice-President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans and mayor of Rotterdam Achmed Aboutaleb. Their focal points include giving everyone their fair share, steady jobs and strong labour laws, affordable and quality housing and healthcare.
https://www.pvda.nl/verkiezingen/verkiezingsprogramma/
Then there are number of established minor parties which will capture a few seats each. It's not unthinkable that one of these parties is required to form a majority coaltion.
50Plus : Henk Krol
Krol is connected with pension fund fraud, multiple bankruptcies and dangerous erection pills. 50Plus claims the Babyboomers are in serious need of help, even though all data says they collectively gained the most through their carreer. They want more money for pensioners even though all models say this can't be sustainable. Old people vote for him in droves, I don't even know what to say.
Partij voor de Dieren (PvdD) : Marianne Thieme
Established party with animal rights focus. Fairly stable and respected.
ChristenUnie : Gert-Jan Segers
Christian union. Fairly left wing, all inclusive, hippie christians.
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (SGP) : Kees van der Staaij
Christian conservative protestants. Would stop women from voting if they could.
Then there are some new parties, maybe some will manage to grab a seat or two, we'll see.
Piratenpartij : Ancilla van de Leest
Wants to curtail government surveillance and improve digital freedom. Their leader is an ex-playboy model who knows her stuff.
DENK : Tunahan Kuzu
Pro-Erdogan Turkish PvdA splinter party. Don't believe the lies!
Artikel 1 : Sylvana Simons
DENK splinter party. Don't believe their lies!
Forum voor Democratie : Thierry Baudet
Curiously Russia-friendly libertarian party
GeenPeil : Jan Dijkgraaf
Started by the anti-establishment website Geenstijl, wants direct democracy and high transparency
VNL : Jan Roos
Party run by the ex-Geenstijl drunkard who championed against the Ukraine referendum without even reading the agreement
Ondernemers Partij : Hero Brinkman
Run by the drunkard who helped crash Rutte I
And even more fringe parties
NIEUWE WEGEN : Alfred Oosenbrug
De Burger Beweging : Ad Vlems
Vrijzinnige Partij : Norbert Klein
Niet Stemmers : Peter Plasman
Libertarische Partij (LP) : Robert Valentine
Lokaal in de Kamer : Jan Heijman
JEZUS LEEFT : Florens van der Spek
StemNL : Mario van den Eijnde
MenS en Spirit / Basisinkomen Partij / V-R : Tara-Joëlle Fonk
Vrije Democratische Partij (VDP) : Burhan Gökalp
Q: So if Wilders wins the election, will he become Prime Minister?
A: Only if other parties want this as well. But considering he burned bridges with his most likely allies the VVD and CDA only 4 years ago, this seems highly unlikely.
Q: Say he somehow becomes Prime Minister, either by miraculously winning 76 seats all by himself or other parties bowing to his might, will we see a Nexit?
A: Even if he has the full cooperation of a majority of the Tweede Kamer, he would still need a majority in the Eerste Kamer as well. Right now that seems out of the question. Elections of the Eerste Kamer are due in 2019.
Q: So what is the most likely outcome?
A: Because of the likely increasingly fragmented nature of the Tweede Kamer, it's starting to look like a monstrous 4+ party coalition will be required, most likely headed by the VVD. So maybe VVD+CDA+D66+GL. Or maybe the left wing parties will be able to unite their forces (hahaha). I expect coalition talks to last many months.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_general_election,_2017
https://stemwijzer.nl/
https://stemmentracker.nl/