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[Mass_Pincup]

So should I make a thread about the PS' pick like I did with Fillon or do we keep everything here?

 

[Coffinhal]

But today there is 2 FN:

The old one that is nostalgic from petain and the Catholic hardcore stuff lead by Marion Marechal.
And the new one led by Marine le Pen that is in the end a left party that doesn't like brown people.

No.

Trying to say that the "new" FN is the left or just like the left is a trick from centrists and free-marketeers to revive anti-communism and blame everyone at once.

You won't find any political researcher tha supports these claims by the way.

The danger with Mélenchon is not even him winning (it would be fucking scary, but there is zero chance of it happening), it's that he is the only candidate who could somehow get Le Pen to win a second round.

Even in the first round, Mélenchon getting stronger is good for Le Pen, because he peddles roughly the same "revolutionary" "anti-elitist" mantra, and a large part of his supporters would probably go over to Le Pen against a "mainstream" candidate.

Do you have any data* to support this or it's just how you feel it ?

*sociological interviews, detailed polls...

Also Fillon and Le Pen are calling for an "anti-elitist" approach, but that doesn't mean that the same ideological history is behind every approach (revolution vs counter-revolution vs insider's revolution etc). That's caricature and a terrible lack of nuance.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

@EuropeElects France, PS+ (S&D, G/EFA) primary, second round, Harris exit poll:
Hamon: 73%
Valls: 27%

Damn I thought the results would be closer.

Spoiler

Like Valls losing with "49.3"%

 

[Alx]

Damn I thought the results would be closer.

Spoiler

Like Valls losing with "49.3"%

Official but partial count is 60/40, but they expect a widening of the gap with the bigger cities remaining.

So should I make a thread about the PS' pick like I did with Fillon or do we keep everything here?

I'd suggest keeping everything here.

 

[Dy_Cy]

I really hope the winner will be either Mélenchon or Hamon, I just hate the other candidates. Sadly, I feel like the Right is gonna take this one.

 

[Simplet]

Do you have any data* to support this or it's just how you feel it ?

*sociological interviews, detailed polls...

Also Fillon and Le Pen are calling for an "anti-elitist" approach, but that doesn't mean that the same ideological history is behind every approach (revolution vs counter-revolution vs insider's revolution etc). That's caricature and a terrible lack of nuance.

That was mostly a feeling and is indeed an exaggeration, so I looked around and found reports about FG voters abstaining a lot more than people from other leftist parties in the second round of local election instead of voting against FN candidates. Granted this is not at all the same thing as voting for the FN directly:

Dans les cas de duels gauche-FN, les électeurs ayant voté pour l'UMP ou ses alliés au premier tour ont été presque autant à choisir le binôme FN (27%) que celui de gauche (29%), la majorité préférant l'abstention, le vote blanc ou nul (44%). (...) Les reports des voix de gauche sur les binômes de droite affrontant le FN au second tour sont plus massifs (58%), avec tout de même une forte abstention, particulièrement pour les électeurs du Front de gauche (61%). Dans le cas des triangulaires, les votes du second tour correspondent globalement aux choix du premier.

http://www.lopinion.fr/30-mars-2015/droite-a-beneficie-reports-voix-venant-gauche-fn-22788

 

[Chezzymann]

Dear France,


dontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitup

UK, dont fuck it up
USA, dont fuck it up
france..... shit

 

[Alx]

UK, dont fuck it up
USA, dont fuck it up
france..... shit

We like our "French exception", when everybody fucks up we do fine, when everybody does fine we fuck up.

Latest official results are 58.65% for Hamon btw. It's over for Valls.

 

[Angel_DvA]

What a terrible presidential election, candidates are corrupted as fuck or totally clueless of the world we are leaving in and I still don't know where we are going with them, I still don't know for who I will vote, probably for the least worst, so probably Macron, if Le Pen passed, I'll vote for whoever will be against her though...

 

[Coffinhal]

We've already had two surprises in this campaign : Fillon and Hamon being the winners of the primaries, challenging the polls. I believe this is at least partially a result of Brexit and Trump, and the awareness of voters that forecasts can be rejected. And now that we have a distance with the first outcomes of both Brexit and the Trump presidency, we might change the path of 2016's history (a conservative counter-revolution in the "anglo-saxon" world).

 

[Pizza con salsiccia]

What a terrible presidential election, candidates are corrupted as fuck or totally clueless of the world we are leaving in and I still don't know where we are going with them, I still don't know for who I will vote, probably for the least worst, so probably Macron, if Le Pen passed, I'll vote for whoever will be against her though...

Never happened before, wow, yeah, this is unprecedented in the history of our country.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

What a terrible presidential election, candidates are corrupted as fuck or totally clueless of the world we are leaving in

Even Hamon and Macron?

 

[Alx]

Yeah if the worst corruption there is is Fillon's wife or even LePen's assistants, one could say it's an exceptionally honest crop.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Don't fuck it up like we did.

Expecting the worse until all the votes are counted.

 

[Phantast2k]

I'd suggest keeping everything here.

I think it makes sense given the fact that he supports universal income and marijuana legalization / robot tax (to finance it): http://www.politico.eu/article/meet...byn-of-the-french-left-socialist-backbencher/

 

[EmiPrime]

Fuck Valls

I have nothing else to add.

 

[Dy_Cy]

Even Hamon and Macron?

I mean, he used to work at Rotschild as an investment banker so...

 

[Phantast2k]

I mean, he used to work at Rotschild as an investment banker so...

so...he is a grabby Jew lizard?

 

[BetterWorldz]

Good speech from Hamon. I voted for him in both rounds of the primary and will probably be voting for him for the general election depending on his chances to make it to the second round.

 

[Coffinhal]

Even Hamon and Macron?

Macron, Hamon and Mélenchon are the only three "big" candidates that aren't, as far as I know, linked to any scandal and seem honest in all their stances.

Le Pen and Fillon and their closest advisors/friends have both tangled themselves in corruption.

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Really happy to have Hamon as the PS' presidential candidate.

He seems to be pretty firmly on the left and after the government of the last five years, it was really needed.

 

[Phantast2k]

I think it makes sense given the fact that he supports universal income and marijuana legalization / robot tax (to finance it): http://www.politico.eu/article/meet...byn-of-the-french-left-socialist-backbencher/

Again, someone should really make a thread. He's basically like gaf's dream candidate:

Also he's not in Putin's ass (via Sputnik):

 

[Jasup]

Again, someone should really make a thread. He's basically like gaf's dream candidate:

Also he's not in Putin's ass (via Sputnik):

For those living outside France, France24 says this:

Hamon, 49, is on the left-wing branch of the Socialist Party and has been compared to the UK’s Jeremy Corbyn.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170129...mary-second-round-hamon-valls-socialist-party

And we know how popular Corbyn is on GAF

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

Viva la france!! Be good france!

 

[nabil2199]

Don't make this a trilogy.
Also, vive la france!

 

[Angel_DvA]

Even Hamon and Macron?

Well some politics are blaming Macron for using public money from Bercy to started/financed "En marche!" movement when he was working as budget minister ( Talking about 120 000€ ), we don't know if its true or not:

http://www.lci.fr/elections/macron-a-t-il-utilise-l-argent-de-bercy-pour-financer-sa-campagne-des-deputes-le-somment-de-s-expliquer-2023337.html

 

[G.O.O.]

For those living outside France, France24 says this:

http://www.france24.com/en/20170129...mary-second-round-hamon-valls-socialist-party

And we know how popular Corbyn is on GAF

I think it's also because Corbyn has been terrible during and after the brexit campaign.

It's a poor comparison imo, Hamon has yet to prove anything about his leadership abilities.

Now, polls :

Notice that Mélenchon has slipped from 4th to 5th position. And that Macron is now tied with Fillon... as I said in the other thread, the question is whether or not Macron can make it to round 2. If he can't, Fillon is likely the winner.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

https://twitter.com/renaudpila/status/825796453633241088

We can make it guys! Forward!

 

[Holden]

I find it sad that this election is highly limited by the two round voting system flaw

the Alternative vote system would have fitted this election so well

 

[Phantast2k]

For those living outside France, France24 says this:

http://www.france24.com/en/20170129...mary-second-round-hamon-valls-socialist-party

And we know how popular Corbyn is on GAF

Corbyn is anti-western, anti-EU, anti-NATO Comintern type cunt. He regularly went on RT and PressTV too. Hamon appears to be nowhere near that type of lunatic.

 

[Fistwell]

look at that sexy mthrfucker I mean damn RRrrR

 

[oti]

I think it's also because Corbyn has been terrible during and after the brexit campaign.

It's a poor comparison imo, Hamon has yet to prove anything about his leadership abilities.

Now, polls :

Notice that Mélenchon has slipped from 4th to 5th position. And that Macron is now tied with Fillon... as I said in the other thread, the question is whether or not Macron can make it to round 2. If he can't, Fillon is likely the winner.

So even if Le Pen won the first round, would that be meaningless if she would lose the second?

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Well some politics are blaming Macron for using public money from Bercy to started/financed "En marche!" movement when he was working as budget minister ( Talking about 120 000€ ), we don't know if its true or not:

http://www.lci.fr/elections/macron-a-t-il-utilise-l-argent-de-bercy-pour-financer-sa-campagne-des-deputes-le-somment-de-s-expliquer-2023337.html

Meh, yeah it's unproven at best.

At worst, it's for a "good cause" IMO.

 

[Holden]

So even if Le Pen won the first round, would that be meaningless if she would lose the second?

If you aint first you a loser!

i do believe government pays back some campaign debt if you exceed a certain % in the election.

 

[G.O.O.]

So even if Le Pen won the first round, would that be meaningless if she would lose the second?

yep

 

[Fistwell]

At worst, it's for a "good cause" IMO.

At worst it was public money, it was illegal, and he belongs in jail.

 

[The Silver]

France there's no way you can beat the US/UK in our dick measuring contest of who can fuck up more, stop playing around and don't try to come in like some third wheel.

 

[MMarston]

France there's no way you can beat the US/UK in our dick measuring contest of who can fuck up more, stop playing around and don't try to come in like some third wheel.

"Hold my macchiato"

 

[azyless]

Second part of that survey if anyone's interested :

 

[Fistwell]

"Hold my macchiato"

no, you come at me

 

[NyMartin90]

Fillon is dead after this week.

Never forget

 

[Simplet]

Second part of that survey if anyone's interested :

Those are some dream numbers for Macron, especially as it's from a few days ago and the Fillon scandal has probably not been priced in yet. I also suspect Hamon will lose some support when people learn more about his program, even though he seems to have mostly picked up voters from Mélenchon.

 

[Jasup]

Corbyn is anti-western, anti-EU, anti-NATO Comintern type cunt. He regularly went on RT and PressTV too. Hamon appears to be nowhere near that type of lunatic.

Well yes, however if one thing is impartant in presidential elections it's image and how people perceive the candidate. Even if Hamon is nowhere near Corbyn, it's worrying that the connection has already been made. It bears less wight on the larger population of the country as Corbyn's image issues are not that well known outside the UK, but these are things that could make a difference.

So even if Le Pen won the first round, would that be meaningless if she would lose the second?

In a nutshell, the first round is basically about who you want to be a president, the second is about who you don't.

 

[Hypron]

Unless something crazy happens in the polls I'll vote Macron since the FN is pure trash and I'm not too hot on Fillon either.

I'll try to get the rest of my family to vote in the second round too. They never vote.

 

[azyless]

Those are some dream numbers for Macron, especially as it's from a few days ago and the Fillon scandal has probably not been priced in yet. I also suspect Hamon will lose some support when people learn more about his program, even though he seems to have mostly picked up voters from Mélenchon.

I don't think it's that out there for Macron to be honest, I think he appeals to a lot of people compared to Fillon or Hamon who are a bit "extreme". And "could vote" is pretty vague, specially at this point of the campaign.

 

[Khaz]

The saying goes: you vote for the person you like the most in the first round, and for the one you hate the least in the second round. Which is somewhat effective at barring the extremes from getting into power.

 

[Sinsem]

Someone needs to explain to me the love for Macron. I don't get the popularity.
I'm a bit far left, but I just don't understand how a guy that was in the socialist governement can gather so much support since they pretty much fuck all of us these past 5 years.

And how in hell can someone trust an investment banker to run a country?

 

[Khaz]

I don't think it's that out there for Macron to be honest, I think he appeals to a lot of people compared to Fillon or Hamon who are a bit "extreme". And "could vote" is pretty vague, specially at this point of the campaign.

The vagueness of his campaign is probably what's getting him these high scores imo. Centre-left and right could see themselves vote for him as he seems reasonable and doesn't say anything that would annoy one side or the other. He doesn't say anything at all actually, as he was obviously waiting for the PS candidate to be chosen so that he can adapt his positions. That itself makes him look shifty to me. We will start seeing movements in the predictions after today: Macron will have to explain his positions and defend his time in the government, which may prove to be difficult.

 

[Damerman]

If macron wins, i'm considering a French/EU citizenship.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Macron gives the image of a young, enthusiastic guy who wants to shake up things. He was in the government but not for long.

Also Laurence Haïm (longest-running French foreign correspondent at Washington D.C.) paused her journalist career to support him because he "reminds (her) of Obama".