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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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G

GhostTrick

Banned
G.O.O. said:
fdwelRr.jpg


One could say Hamon betrayed the government when he became a frondeur. I understand why he did, but that's obviously not how parties are supposed to work.
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No, he didn't. Government isn't a party or should be tied to party logics. Moreover, member of parliaments should be tied to their voters and not the party. These are institutions in which parties are playing, but not setting the rules.
Although in the primaries context, you're playing by the party rules. Rules that Valls broke.

But yes, Macron/Lepen is a disaster of a situation that I hope we'll avoid.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I still don't understand what's so terrible about Macron. You can call him bland, without charisma or toothless, but compared to the other choices that's not so bad.
The only relevant argument is "he'll have a hard time getting a majority in Parliament", but that's not something any of the other candidates can claim either, given their programs and popularity. Also it's kind of the point, changing the old "one party to rule them all" system to something more open (and more democratic).
 
F

Fistwell

Member
Alx said:
I still don't understand what's so terrible about Macron. You can call him bland, without charisma or toothless, but compared to the other choices that's not so bad.
The only relevant argument is "he'll have a hard time getting a majority in Parliament", but that's not something any of the other candidates can claim either, given their programs and popularity. Also it's kind of the point, changing the old "one party to rule them all" system to something more open (and more democratic).
Click to expand...
A former private banker, with strong ties to private interests? An ambitious, craving power enough that he started his own movement in a bid for presidency? A narcissist, that chose his movement's name to share his own initials?

I abhor the guy. Yet I'll still vote for him in the second round if it comes down to it.
 
G

GhostTrick

Banned
Alx said:
I still don't understand what's so terrible about Macron. You can call him bland, without charisma or toothless, but compared to the other choices that's not so bad.
The only relevant argument is "he'll have a hard time getting a majority in Parliament", but that's not something any of the other candidates can claim either, given their programs and popularity. Also it's kind of the point, changing the old "one party to rule them all" system to something more open (and more democratic).
Click to expand...


Well first of all: Getting a majority. The guy basically seems to try to appeal to everyone. Basically like Hollande, but the guy was trying only with the PS. You can't make a majority from Alain Madelin to Robert Hue.

Now on the ideas, the guy's pretty much really liberal. I'm not talking about society here, which is fine by me, but economy. I don't want a France with a more fragile work legislation. I don't want the "uber system" that Macron might bring. On the other hand, I certainly don't want Lepen either. Basically, 2nd turn may feel like for me "Do you want pineapple pizza (Macron) ? No ? Then what about some poop pizza (Lepen) ?"
 
F

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Fistwell said:
A former private banker, with strong ties to private interests? An ambitious, craving power enough that he started his own movement in a bid for presidency? A narcissist, that chose his movement's name to share his own initials?

I abhor the guy. Yet I'll still vote for him in the second round if it comes down to it.
Click to expand...

I'm not in love with him, but that's just good branding.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Fistwell said:
A former private banker, with strong ties to private interests?
Click to expand...

"Funnily" enough with the death of Henri Emmanuelli I learnt that he had the exact same profile, banker at Rothschild who later went into politics. Except that he turned out closer to Mélenchon. There's nothing inherently evil in being a banker, it's a "procès d'intention".

Fistwell said:
An ambitious, craving power enough that he started his own movement in a bid for presidency?
Click to expand...

Well you need to be ambitious and craving power to be in politics, they all are. Starting his own movement is actually a fair and honest way to defend one's opinions, instead of following the flawed party-centered method. We can see how bad those primaries can turn out, when some people are forced to support programs they disagree with (or forced to betray their promises of support).

Fistwell said:
A narcissist, that chose his movement's name to share his own initials?
Click to expand...
Big deal, like I said having a huge ego is almost a requirement for the position. It's actually tame compared to the pharaonic projects of Chirac, Mitterrand or Pompidou to leave their trace in history through whole buildings with their name on it.
 
F

Fistwell

Member
BaronLundi said:
Yeah, how is Macron a "disaster" in this context? More of a disaster than a choice between Fillon/LePen kind of disaster??
Click to expand...
I don't know about disaster, just pointing out a few of the things that rub me the wrong way about the guy. Not saying others are necessarily better. Fillon is more offensive to me than macron.

Alx said:
"procès d'intention".
Click to expand...
Of course it is. We have no way of knowing for sure what will factor in his decisions if he gets elected, accordingly all we can do is speculate. From his background and behavior, I'll speculate that private interests and his own personal ambitions are likely to get in the way of the public interest.

Alx said:
Well you need to be ambitious and craving power to be in politics, they all are.
Click to expand...
Yeah most French politicians are like that. I'd rather the desire to serve the state and the people was the primary motor. As a lot of them claim, but it is what it is. So, yeah, others are like that too. That does not make it great for him to be so. And he does stand out to me as particularly ambitious, as in, (even) more so than some others.

Alx said:
Big deal, like I said having a huge ego is almost a requirement for the position. It's actually tame compared to the pharaonic projects of Chirac, Mitterrand or Pompidou to leave their trace in history through whole buildings with their name on it.
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I hear what you say and I agree to some extent. But I find his EM shtick narcissistic in a petty kind of way. Mitterrand's egomania had a more dignified quality to it.

All of that, and we haven't even talked about his incapacity to provide solutions to improve the economy. Not that others are better (in some cases much, much worse).

At least I like that he likes Europe.
 
G

G.O.O.

Member
As I said, only good bankers in France are repented ones, like Kerviel. Doesn't matter if he has been proven a crook (and that no amount of investigation gave anything suspicious about Macron), he denounced the system so he's good.

Also please don't pretend the obvious fascist is better. If you believe that then you're obviously not one of those who will suffer from her policies - or at least, you believe that, because a Frexit will fuck all of us who can't move to another country.
 
F

Fistwell

Member
G.O.O. said:
As I said, only good bankers in France are repented ones, like Kerviel. Doesn't matter if he has been proven a crook (and that no amount of investigation gave anything suspicious about Macron), he denounced the system so he's good.
Click to expand...
"He" being kerviel or macron? I'm not sure what you mean, sorry for being dense.

G.O.O. said:
Also please don't pretend the obvious fascist is better.
Click to expand...
I'm not in any way.

KingSnake said:
Interesting. When did this become an evil thing by itself?
Click to expand...
I didn't use the word "evil," dunno who you're talking to.
 
F

Fistwell

Member
KingSnake said:
You listed "a former private banker" as a negative. Why?
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Propensity to allow private interests to come before public interest, suspicion of collusion between private interests and public authorities. Beyond which, the private banker past also further contributes to his persona. The guy reeks of privilege, money, upper class. He's shown contempt (or, possibly, a genuine disconnect with reality) for blue collar workers, famously describing a group of workers in brittany that had lost their jobs as being largely "illiterate."

A lot of politicians only have a loose understanding of the everyday reality of lower class french people. But he stands out as a caricature of the disconnected elite. To me anyways. But also, I believe, to a significant part of the population. Which is worrying if he's to face a populist in the second round.

Again, if I have to vote for the guy, I will in a heartbeat. But I won't enjoy it.
 
S

Sinsem

Member
Alx said:
I still don't understand what's so terrible about Macron.
Click to expand...

He's not the worse, obviously. But he was an important part of the previous government, he passed a law that I consider really terrible, he's clearly ok with El Khomri's law too which was in the continuity of his own.
He's trying to please everybody, seeing the PS elected flee in his direction make me think he will be surrounded by the worst types of opportunists.

Set aside the fact that he was a banker, blew millions in a few years (what kind of lifestyle is that?) and the other personnal stuff for which I really don't care about honestly. I have a big problem with his propositions. It's the kind of politic that is detroying the life of people around me, the kind which was supposed to solve all our problem when the 2008 crisis hit, and obviously isn't.
This is what pushes miserable people that feel abandonned to stop voting, or worse, to vote FN.
 
M

Mael

Member
Alx said:
I wonder if the "character assassination of candidates" has started yet, since the only one being "assassinated" for the moment is Fillon, and he was supposed to be Putin's friend.
Click to expand...

They tried with Macron already, just tune to fdsouche...
There were rumours of affairs going on when Fillon's shit blew up and the far right was rumbling about how Macron was going down or something.
fuck fb btw.
I wouldn't be surprised if the whole movement against Hollande that was there from day 1 is also something like that.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Mael said:
just tune to fdsouche...
Click to expand...

Erm, no thanks. :D
As long as it stays in those specific circles, I suppose it's not that bad. Although now I remember a "decoded" rumour on the Monde page, about an unfunded belief that Macron wanted to tax house owners.
I always wondered if the twitter rumours about Juppé being a salafist were also Russian-sponsored.

Anyway, I'm glad I'm out of the social networks. :)
 
A

Ac30

Member
Alx said:
Erm, no thanks. :D
As long as it stays in those specific circles, I suppose it's not that bad. Although now I remember a "decoded" rumour on the Monde page, about an unfunded belief that Macron wanted to tax house owners.
I always wondered if the twitter rumours about Juppé being a salafist were also Russian-sponsored.

Anyway, I'm glad I'm out of the social networks. :)
Click to expand...

C'mon son, this is some next level Barack is a Mooslem!!!! crap lmao
 
M

Mael

Member
Alx said:
Erm, no thanks. :D
As long as it stays in those specific circles, I suppose it's not that bad. Although now I remember a "decoded" rumour on the Monde page, about an unfunded belief that Macron wanted to tax house owners.
I always wondered if the twitter rumours about Juppé being a salafist were also Russian-sponsored.

Anyway, I'm glad I'm out of the social networks. :)
Click to expand...

Juppé is as catholic as it goes (I'm from Bordeaux after all), that looks like out of country fakenews like what the US senate is talking about.
It's incredibly interesting you should listen to it.
LePen is a Russian financed candidate, again that's common knowledge and pretty much matter of factly said in the hearing.
I wouldn't be surprised if Mélenchon was also, it would explain his dubious foreign policy positions.
The fact that LePen is the defacto front runner may be why it seems way less prevalent in the French election than in the US.

Ac30 said:
C'mon son, this is some next level Barack is a Mooslem!!!! crap lmao
Click to expand...

The guy was born in Mont-de-Marsan!
This is like saying Jacques Chirac is into Voodoo.
 
G

G.O.O.

Member
Alx said:
Erm, no thanks. :D
As long as it stays in those specific circles, I suppose it's not that bad. Although now I remember a "decoded" rumour on the Monde page, about an unfunded belief that Macron wanted to tax house owners.
I always wondered if the twitter rumours about Juppé being a salafist were also Russian-sponsored.

Anyway, I'm glad I'm out of the social networks. :)
Click to expand...
Ali Juppé, hand of the Muslim Brotherhood :cool:

BNaHfoe.jpg
 
O

Oreiller

Member
Alx said:
I wonder if the "character assassination of candidates" has started yet, since the only one being "assassinated" for the moment is Fillon, and he was supposed to be Putin's friend.
Click to expand...
I heard some "interesting" "facts" about Macron when speaking with people at Mélenchon's meeting last week-end...
 
Alx

Alx

Member
mo60 said:
Some french scientist is now saying that le pen has a chance of winning the second round.
http://www.politico.eu/article/how-...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Click to expand...

I'd say that risk is especially real if Fillon gets to the second round (which seems less likely every passing day). In that case abstention will be high and benefit Le Pen, and they're already much too close in the polls for my tastes (55-45).
If Macron passes as expected, I do hope that he will get some official support from some big names of the Right (Borloo, Juppé, even ideally Sarko and Fillon) which would counter the argument that he's "Hollande 2.0".
 
M

mo60

Member
Alx said:
I'd say that risk is especially real if Fillon gets to the second round (which seems less likely every passing day). In that case abstention will be high and benefit Le Pen, and they're already much too close in the polls for my tasts (55-45).
If Macron passes as expected, I do hope that he will get some official support from some big names of the Right (Borloo, Juppé, even ideally Sarko and Fillon) which would counter the argument that he's "Hollande 2.0".
Click to expand...

Yeah. A lot of these type of articles fail to recognize that it's a fillon versus le pen match up that we have to worry about a lot. Macron is more liked then Fillon at the moment so abstention will most likely end up way lower for him.
 
A

azyless

Member
Alx said:
I'd say that risk is especially real if Fillon gets to the second round (which seems less likely every passing day). In that case abstention will be high and benefit Le Pen, and they're already much too close in the polls for my tasts (55-45).
If Macron passes as expected, I do hope that he will get some official support from some big names of the Right (Borloo, Juppé, even ideally Sarko and Fillon) which would counter the argument that he's "Hollande 2.0".
Click to expand...
God if you'd told me a couple years ago that I'd be wishing for Sarko and Fillon of all people to back the candidate I'm voting for... This is a bit depressing.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I'm keeping track of the Ifop rolling poll, since I'm more interested in the dynamics. It still puts Mélenchon below Fillon, but he's on the rise.
On the other hand, a second round Fillon / Le Pen becomes more and more disputed, they're 53/47. I reaaaaaally hope Fillon won't pull a miracle move and reach second round.
 
D

dramatis

Member
I saw this article on NPR this morning.

France's National Front Party Draws Young Voters To The Far-Right

While obviously the upcoming election is the priority concern right now, should there be some worry about further into France's future?
The French go to the polls to elect a new president in April and May in a two-round vote. Right now the number one party with young people is the far-right National Front. Recent polls show Le Pen has 40 percent support among French youths aged 18 to 24, a startling fact for a country that's traditionally been known for its leftist youth movements.

Two-hundred miles to the west in Paris, Gaëtan Dussausaye unlocks his office door at the National Front party headquarters. The 23-year-old heads the National Front's youth wing, the FNJ (Front National Jeunesse). Dussausaye says during the last presidential election five years ago, the FNJ had 10,000 members; it's now swelled to 25,000, the largest of any of the political parties' youth factions. He says it's not hard to see why.
Click to expand...
 
A

Ac30

Member
dramatis said:
I saw this article on NPR this morning.

France's National Front Party Draws Young Voters To The Far-Right

While obviously the upcoming election is the priority concern right now, should there be some worry about further into France's future?
Click to expand...

He says he's economically anxious, apparently, and wants to vote for the candidate that wants to pull them out of the EU, making that worse. It makes so much sense when you think about it. It's fucking terrifying.

Who will they blame when they can no longer scapegoat the EU? Guess it'll be back to immigrants. LePen getting 40% of the vote is worrying enough already; if Macron fucks up LePen is definitely in come 2022. I'm sure you all have FN supporting friends, is it mainly the unemployment that is getting them to vote FN?
 
G

G.O.O.

Member
In 2022 brexit will have happened. If it doesn't go well (which is, well, widely expected) Le Pen will have to adapt her platform and make everyone forget she wanted to leave EU.

Let's also not forget that Philippot is widely unpopular inside the FN and might get toppled on first occasion, which would also mean the end of the left-wing economics line in the party. All I'm saying is things will happen.
 
A

Ac30

Member
G.O.O. said:
In 2022 brexit will have happened. If it doesn't go well (which is, well, widely expected) Le Pen will have to adapt her platform and make everyone forget she wanted to leave EU.

Let's also not forget that Philippot is widely unpopular inside the FN and might get toppled on first occasion, which would also mean the end of the left-wing economics line in the party. All I'm saying is things will happen.
Click to expand...

Them abandoning left-wing policies would sink the party at this rate, so let's hope it happens

Also digging through the IFOP rolling poll, it's quite interesting that 4% of LePen primary voters would vote for Macron in the second round?! lmao

http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_31-03-2017.pdf

Macron also seems to draw more from other primary voters in every category (Melenchon, Hamon and Fillon) than LePen, but his margins on the left look to be far larger, which is interesting because one would assume the left would go for LePen's economic policies - the only thing appetizing for the right is her anti-immigrant rhetoric because the protectionist policies are probably a turn-off. I have no idea how he's drawing 65% of Hamon's base but good for him.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Yes things can (and hopefully will) change in 5 years, but the phenomenon is still worrying. In a way it's a good thing that Brexit happens and I almost wish for it to go terribly for the UK so that it can help weaken their anti-european stance (sorry Brits).
The popularity among the young population shows how clever the FN strategy has been for the last decade. Older people do remember the roots of the party and aren't really fooled by the new coat of paint. But for the younger ones, the FN is just another political party.
Also it's one they can use for contestation, and with the almost complete disappearance of the far left (at least PC, FO etc), the FN is the obvious "anti-system" vote.

It's that despicable habit that voters have of using elections as a tool for expressing discontent rather than a democratic vote. I was discussing with a member of my family who disliked all candidates, and despite not supporting the FN he wanted MLP to lose "with the smallest margin, to send a message to the future president". Yeah, like that's not dangerous at all. And his wife said "even if she wins, it's not the end of the world". Well maybe not the end of the world, but most probably the end of EU.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I expect a sex and drugs scandal, fake or not, on Macron, but the French usually don't care about sex scandals, not sure about the coke.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I'm not too familiar with the internal struggles in the FN, but I believe it would take a major underperformance at the elections for MLP to step down. Her father was only weakened by a 80-20 loss, and even then it took several years to get rid of him.
 
S

Shahadan

Member
Alx said:
I'm not too familiar with the internal struggles in the FN, but I believe it would take a major underperformance at the elections for MLP to step down. Her father was only weakened by a 80-20 loss, and even then it took several years to get rid of him.
Click to expand...

That was a vastly different party and context then though.
 
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