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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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Fisico

Member
I do, but the French primary system is pointless. Did Melenchon or Macron compete in the left primary? No, they ignored it and went ahead with their own campaign anyway in 2R. Did Dupont-Aignan run in the right primary and stick by the result? No, he ignored it and went ahead with his own campaign. The French primary system is a joke when the presidential system already has 2R; there's very little incentive for anyone to stick by it. If the Republicans had co-ordinated against Trump in a primary, he would have run as an independent in 1R, and I think still been the leading candidate from the right.


To be fair the french primaries were mainly run by the PS and the Republicans and the winner of these primaries were always going to be candidates from these two parties.

It was useful for Hollande in 2012 and it was useful for Fillon until he ruined it because it helps give you momentum and gives wider mediatic coverage to your program, now after what happened one can ask if it will still be there in 2022 but for the PS it at least was useful in the sense that it shows how big was the gap between the politics and the electors voting for them.

It could have been useful for Hamon even without Melenchon and Macron if he wasn't backstabbed by almost everyone, Aubry, Montebourg, Hamon and cie didn't do so in 2012 after Hollande won, and the argument that "Hamon was the first to betray the party" is fallacious at best considering it had next to zero impact in the end (and well you know...)

A few interesting tidbits from the last Harris poll

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elections2017-2004-2aur9h.png

If we had to believe in polls, as it is Fillon is basically the most likely to be out, the main remaining point is the 38% of Hamon's electors (~3% of overall electors) still undecided and who they will go for (Hamon, Melenchon or Macron).
A shame we don't have data for Dupont Aignan electors though, as they're the only ones Fillon can most likely bring back to him.
 

Sinsem

Member
That Le Pen score for "capacity to talk about your concerns" is frightening.

Fillon being so low on honesty but so high on "making him president" is laughable.
"Yeah he's a crook, but I want him to lead the country anyway".
 

Ac30

Member
That Le Pen score for "capacity to talk about your concerns" is frightening.

Fillon being so low on honesty but so high on "making him president" is laughable.
"Yeah he's a crook, but I want him to lead the country anyway".

Well, she's the only candidate to openly mention foreigners raping your women so she's definitely got her base cornered since I'm sure that's on their minds 24/7
 

G.O.O.

Member
Well, she's the only candidate to openly mention foreigners raping your women so she's definitely got her base cornered since I'm sure that's on their minds 24/7
That's also their only concern regarding women's rights (with emphasis on "foreigners")
 
Mélenchon VS Bourdin on Venezuela

http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/vi...din-sur-la-question-venezuelienne-936221.html

... so is it just me or is JLM unable to answer to a simple question about this country ? The only theme he's overcomplexifying is foreign relations with dictatorships...
Hamon touched on this this morning on France Inter, as he was explicit on all these international issues (including Syria, Russia or the EU) and denounced Mélenchon's ambivalence on them.

I honestly don't know how ambivalent Mélenchon really is on them, but it's striking how someone as eloquent as he is can somehow become so unclear in his speech when you touch on particular issues. There's an argument to be made that these are complicated issues that require a nuanced approach and a depth of view, but let's not pretend this isn't true of other issues where his answers are synthetic anc crystal clear.

I'm not even judging the substance of his answers here, I'm just saying that as a candidate, he underperforms when pushed on these.

As an aside, I found Hamon generally pretty good on this radio show. The last time I had heard him there, I had been underwhelmed by his performance, but not this time.
What struck me when discussing it with my wife is how to us he both sounded really likable but not very presidential. It's interesting to contrast this with a general perception of Fillon, who's not not likable at all but still manages to come across as presidential to a lot of people. I guess this says a lot about what people expect from a French president.

I saw this yesterday

Thank god that guy's not racist, what would it be if he was. To think he's only 19... what's it gonna be when he gets older.
I also blame all these shitty shows that go on and on about how all our entitlement systems are abused and are a paradise for welfare leeches while never focusing on the flipside, that a shitload of people would have even worse lives without them.
The M6/TNT trifecta of "everything is dangerous", "our system is constantly raped" and "fuck yeah, let's bust some heads and drive fast" is depressing.
 

Alx

Member
I honestly don't know how ambivalent Mélenchon really is on them, but it's striking how someone as eloquent as he is can somehow become so unclear in his speech when you touch on particular issues.

Yes in the video above it's very surprising to hear him speechless and on the defensive (especially from the moment he starts comparing Venezuelian demonstrations to the French ones against the El Khomri laws). He's probably only in his element when he's on the offensive.

What struck me when discussing it with my wife is how to us he both sounded really likable but not very presidential. It's interesting to contrast this with a general perception of Fillon, who's not not likable at all but still manages to come across as presidential to a lot of people. I guess this says a lot about what people expect from a French president.

Many commentators say Hamon has given up at this point (understandably so), he's not hoping to be president any more, so he can relax and just work on making a name for himself, instead of trying to look presidential. He's now classified among the "petits candidats" like Poutou or Cheminade.
 

Sinsem

Member
As an aside, I found Hamon generally pretty good on this radio show. The last time I had heard him there, I had been underwhelmed by his performance, but not this time.
What struck me when discussing it with my wife is how to us he both sounded really likable but not very presidential. It's interesting to contrast this with a general perception of Fillon, who's not not likable at all but still manages to come across as presidential to a lot of people. I guess this says a lot about what people expect from a French president.

He's likeable, he's pushing for interesting ideas. I'm more radical than that, so I'm more in line with Mélenchon, but I have a hard time explaining why he can't convince more people. For people like me, the problem is the Socialist Party (or what's left of it) behind him, which is a shame.
My hope is that he leaves the PS after this election and start rebuilding the left with what's born with the France Insoumise. He's no leader, but he'd be a great addition to a new left.
 

Addi

Member
Got the candidat pamphlets in the mail yesterday. I'm glad I'm not picking a candidate based on those. "The force of the people" "make France's heart beat" "Time has come" "France should be an opportunity for everybody" "Stand up France" "a historic choice" "one will for France"
 

Fisico

Member
The presidential election is not about being likable it's about having an ego bigger than others and showing off as much as you can, Hamon is obviously a selfless guy and in the two debates I thought that he was trying too hard to make himself looks "presidential".

While the end result would've been the same (not qualified for the 2nd turn by far), I think Montebourg or even Valls would've got a better score than Hamon, the first option would've make Melenchon lower than he currently is and not a contender for 2nd round, and the latter would've mainly make Macron, and maybe even Fillon, weaker.

Not like we can go back and change what's been done but it's still interesting to think about it on a political point of view.
 

Alx

Member
A satirical video from the anti racist group "Etat d'Exception" about why arabs and muslims in France should vote for Mélenchon.

Sorry it's not subtitled, i found it quite funny nonetheless.

Since they mention it at the end of the video : I don't know if it's especially true for Mélenchon, but I've heard other mentions of his supporters "trolling" people on social networks whenever they read any criticism. Comics author Joann Sfar was apparently victim of that too.
It makes sense in a way, since it's a typical internet behaviour for young people, and Mélenchon has found some success with that crowd.
 
Since they mention it at the end of the video : I don't know if it's especially true for Mélenchon, but I've heard other mentions of his supporters "trolling" people on social networks whenever they read any criticism. Comics author Joann Sfar was apparently victim of that too.
It makes sense in a way, since it's a typical internet behaviour for young people, and Mélenchon has found some success with that crowd.
Yeah, like you said, I think this has more to do with the breeding grounds of these supporters than a candidate: if your supporters are young and come from online forums like jeuxvideo or whatever, they're way more likely to do asshole things like this kind of brigading. That they'd harass Sfar of all people is embarrassing TBH.

Conversely, you're way more likely to receive a pro-Filon FWD:FWD:FWD: The truth! MUST READ !! shitty PowerPoint with dumb conspiracy theories, because some older people love that shit and have too much time on their hands.
 

Coffinhal

Member
I think at this point either Macron or Le Pen will overperform the polls.I think people are moving to macron to avoid a Melenchon and Le Pen second round.

Well maybe, but little shows that Macron might be gaining votes in the last days and we don't know what the reason would be for that move.

He's not against EU. Not at all. He just wants a better EU. By force. /s

Right-wing countries and EU instutition never used force for political purposes. Never. They are too good, they are the warriors of peace and aus..propesrity ! /S

Many commentators say Hamon has given up at this point (understandably so), he's not hoping to be president any more, so he can relax and just work on making a name for himself, instead of trying to look presidential. He's now classified among the "petits candidats" like Poutou or Cheminade.

Not really, he's still at more than 7%. "petits candidats" is <2 or 3%, and mainly around 1%

By the way, "classified" means "(classé) secret défense" haha. You can just use "listed as".
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Right-wing countries and EU instutition never used force for political purposes. Never. They are too good, they are the warriors of peace and aus..propesrity ! /S

It never stops to amaze me how less people know about how EU works. Like it's some alien being or something, not an alliance in which your own country has a big word in its decisions.

And what's a "right wing country"? What type of country is France then?

Also, are you saying that Melenchon is no better than a right wing leader?
 

Ac30

Member
Right-wing countries and EU instutition never used force for political purposes. Never. They are too good, they are the warriors of peace and aus..propesrity ! /S

Literally no-one is arguing the above - Left-wing countries have also always been peaceful I'm sure. Also, how little say do you think France has in the EU? It's far more than you think.
It's dishonest to claim he's not anti-EU when he's going to disobey their laws immediately, force his vision on them and then leave if they don't want it.

MLP dropped to 21 in the most recent Harris poll, if it's representative it's now even more of a total toss-up (not that it wasn't before). Fillon's somehow insanely supportive supporters may well kick her out.
 
Since they mention it at the end of the video : I don't know if it's especially true for Mélenchon, but I've heard other mentions of his supporters "trolling" people on social networks whenever they read any criticism. Comics author Joann Sfar was apparently victim of that too.
It makes sense in a way, since it's a typical internet behaviour for young people, and Mélenchon has found some success with that crowd.

It's really annoying. You go on any news outlet social media page or any public figure who dare to criticize something Mélenchon said and they will start to troll you. A lot of them are really active on social media. I find it very worrying that all this movement "Les Insoumis" is so centered around one political figure. I ask one of them what she didn't liked about Mélenchon ideas and she avoid the question.

More annoying than them are the supporter of Asselineau.
Like you said, they are all young and most of them are new in politics and quite naive.
 
My guess if anything is that Hamon ends up doing worse than his polls indicate and that % goes to Macron and JLM. Probably tight three-way race for second. Probably a surge at the end for the winners and a loss for the people who have already been fading (ie Hamon)

I would just prefer Le Pen not make it, though I've already made my peace that she will make it to the second round. But I want to be pleasantly surprised.
 

Ac30

Member
If the media go full speed on this, this might change the order of the first round.

I'm not so sure about that. France has been reeling from attacks for 2 years now, and this is relatively minor compared to most. I mean sure if this is the news for the next 3 days it might bump her a point or two but it won't drastically change the outcome.

The real danger is them plotting something much bigger in the second round
 

mo60

Member
A big terrorist attack never happened before the US election so I don't think it will happen before the second round.
 

Coffinhal

Member
I'm not so sure about that. France has been reeling from attacks for 2 years now, and this is relatively minor compared to most. I mean sure if this is the news for the next 3 days it might bump her a point or two but it won't drastically change the outcome.

Sadly attacks on policemen are nothing new in France.

3 days from the vote, 1 day before the end of the campaign, I believe the media will make it a major event and this might change perceptions for some people. With the level of uncertainty and of undecided people, we shouldn't take the conséquences lightly (but I hope I'm wrong)

It's much easier for them to get to France, though.

Most of the time they are French, so yeah
 

Sinsem

Member
There was a lot of uncertainty before but now, who can guess how this will play out?
I certainly don't like it, Le Pen will try to use this, I wonder if the media will this time try to shut her up.
 

Ac30

Member
There was a lot of uncertainty before but now, who can guess how this will play out?
I certainly don't like it, Le Pen will try to use this, I wonder if the media will this time try to shut her up.

She's an abhorrent human being - I wouldn't be shocked if she does. I would like to think that the French don't take kindly to profiteering off the deaths of others though.

3 days from the vote, 1 day before the end of the campaign, I believe the media will make it a major event and this might change perceptions for some people. With the level of uncertainty and of undecided people, we shouldn't take the conséquences lightly (but I hope I'm wrong)



Most of the time they are French, so yeah


Well oftentimes they're Belgian too, point is, it's much more likely in Europe than in the US.
 

Carn82

Member
disclaimer, I'm dutch (and liberal and pro eu) , and I think that having someone like Obama having a dialogue with Macron seems like quite the endorsement. Honest question, since the intricacies of French politics are a bit beyond me, is this good or bad for my point of view?
 

Ac30

Member
Kind of sad that his bottle flip video has more likes and shares than many of his tweets combined lol. Candidates should just play social media, forget the rest.

Also Obama seems to have far better approvals in France than in the US
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/29...nt-and-u-s-seen-favorably-in-europe-and-asia/


Also dat American exceptionalism

Meanwhile, views of Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, are strongly negative. In nearly half the nations polled, the share of the public with confidence in Trump is in single digits.
 

Sinsem

Member
Yeah Obama is still very popular here.
All Democrats are, if France voted in the United States I'm not sure there would be a lot a Republican Presidents :D
 

le-seb

Member
disclaimer, I'm dutch (and liberal and pro eu) , and I think that having someone like Obama having a dialogue with Macron seems like quite the endorsement. Honest question, since the intricacies of French politics are a bit beyond me, is this good or bad for my point of view?
Macron has often been criticized for his lack of experience, and Obama's call is certainly giving him some presence.
 
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