The irony being that Segolene Royale fucked Dragon Ball, the japanese animes and Dorothé to make her career.
And so now you have the leftist about to kill the socialists pumping out Dragon Ball and Naruto references.
That's poetic.
|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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The irony being that Segolene Royale fucked Dragon Ball, the japanese animes and Dorothé to make her career.
And so now you have the leftist about to kill the socialists pumping out Dragon Ball and Naruto references.
That's poetic.
Palette Swap
Member
Jesus. This is embarrassing. Kill me already.
Meanwhile, Hamon is leaving all these undecideds on the table by not tapping into the sheer power of these Jojo references.
Meanwhile, Hamon is leaving all these undecideds on the table by not tapping into the sheer power of these Jojo references.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
I think I'm gonna vote Macron.
Too scared of a Le Pen/Fillon second round.
Also the satisfaction of Le Pen not ranking #1 in the first round would compensate my disappointment of Mélenchon not passing the first round.
Too scared of a Le Pen/Fillon second round.
Also the satisfaction of Le Pen not ranking #1 in the first round would compensate my disappointment of Mélenchon not passing the first round.
You should probably support Melenchon. He is really close to the others.
Personally I don't want any of the top 4 so I don't know who to vote for.
Will your vote be so big that it'll make Macron goes straight from 3rd/4th to 1st
?Will your vote be so big that it'll make Macron goes straight from 3rd/4th to 1st
3rd/4th? What is it with Mélenchon supporters and being so sure Macron is gonna choke?
Heck, I even saw one insoumis on a friend's post call a Mélenchon-Asselineau second round (because the polls are lying to you). And he wasn't trolling, sadly.
I have no idea what to call myself. Ideally, MLP misses the second round, but I can't see it just yet. Macron vs Fillon would reassure me on the foreign policy/European front. Macron vs Mélenchon would make me happy just to see Fillon eat shit. Either way, Macron wins. He just needs to make it there first...
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Will your vote be so big that it'll make Macron goes straight from 3rd/4th to 1st
You could say that about anyone's vote
Each individual vote doesn't count for much but the combination of all the votes is what's giving the result. That's the "beauty" of democracy.
Alx
Member
Such opinions are based on "alternative" ""polling"" methods, especially those that measure social network activity rather than ask voters for their opinion. It's obviously very flawed(Asselineau is surprisingly high indeed, but for some reason youtube's recommendation system is biased towards some candidates), but it's part of the popular idea that "polls are outdated and wrong, it's all about Twitter now".
*edit - unsurprisingly, one of those controversial institutes is based in... Moscow.
http://www.france24.com/fr/20170403...dentielle-fillon-sputnik-tete-sondages-russie
I know at least one who went from Asselineau to Mélenchon (and still believes that we should leave EU). JLM has attracted quite a few crackpots for some reason, one of his followers even wrote a blog entry about how he might lose because of his fanatics.
I also know some very reasonable ones, but the hardliners are pretty fucking nuts if you ask me
It was a joke, I even put a smiley in my post!
- He said he was scared about a Fillon vs Le Pen 2nd round
- Thus wanted to vote Macron
- And would be satisfied if Le Pen doesn't end 1st at the first round
- Implying she ends 2nd and Macron 1st
Wouldn't call myself a Melenchon's supporter also, and I don't know anything about who's gonna be at the 2nd round but the safest choice (although not as safe as it was a few weeks ago) is still Macron.
And I'm not gonna give any lesson about "vote utile" as it's what I'm going to do by not voting Hamon.
It's terrible to think that no matter the result, 2 candidates program representing 40% of the votes will just be ignored comes the 2nd round, if there's Le Pen the opposite candidate will just have to pull a Chirac (Fillon might have to do a bit more), Macron is an almost guaranteed win no matter who he would be facing.
The closest second round we could have could be Fillon vs Melenchon if Macron decides to openly support Fillon and I don't see that scenario happening.
Alx
Member
Since we discussed it yesterday, Le Monde wrote an article to comment Mélenchon's position on Europe.
http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs...c-melenchon-sur-l-europe_5113761_4355770.html
Considering the different referendums, I was looking for an exact quote since I was pretty sure I heard him say it would be a choice between the results of the negotiations and leaving the EU. I couldn't find it yesterday, but that's how Le Monde quotes it too.
http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs...c-melenchon-sur-l-europe_5113761_4355770.html
Considering the different referendums, I was looking for an exact quote since I was pretty sure I heard him say it would be a choice between the results of the negotiations and leaving the EU. I couldn't find it yesterday, but that's how Le Monde quotes it too.
Noam Chomsky chose his camp
Petitions like this (as useless as they are) are unusual or is it pretty common?
Petitions like this (as useless as they are) are unusual or is it pretty common?
I guess people who like Chomsky's views are already voting Mélenchon
Lol, I missed that. But I was talking more about international stuff.
I'm still surprised to see Dany Glover and Mark Ruffalo cosign this. I pictured them as standard liberal democrats, so I guess center-right in France.
They probably think Macron is Clinton and JLM is Sanders. Everyone is interested in our election this year so I expect these kind of takes...
Also, complotist website wikistrike says the CIA already has the results. Sorry mélenchonistes, you don't make it.
https://donotlink.it/wRVp
I highly doubt le pen will do 5% better then expected in the first round.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Melenchon and Sanders are a bad comparison, but Macron and Clinton are definitely pretty good analogues. Clinton identified quite strongly with David Miliband, who filled the same portion on the British spectrum as Macron does in France.
They'd probably get along quite well, but then again America isn't France for many reasons, the first one being that with our system Clinton would have won easily <.<
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not sure about that. If America used the French system, and you assume the same candidates, 1R would have seen Clinton and Sanders go through as there were too many Republican candidates, and Sanders was more popular with Republican voters, so probably a Sanders win. Of course, that's useless theory talk because the whole dynamics would have been different (Republicans would have coordinated to put through less candidates, Sanders would have been attacked more early on, Clinton would have had to pivot earlier, etc).
I think he meant in the case of a Trump/Clinton run-off, which I think is true - If Trump made it out of the jungle primary neck-and-neck with Clinton, people might have taken him more seriously in the general. He was still being treated as a joke until election day.
This is ignoring the Electoral College, of course.
+/- 0,5/1 pt is not really relevant, especially in daily polls with bad samples. The Le Monde/Cevipof/Ipsos poll with the 11.000 people sample confirms that Mélenchon is between 18 and 20 (in the last days). Whether he reached his peak or not is a question that will be answered Sunday and we can't know what undecided people will do or who will vote exactly. Mélenchon has a slight chance to be in the 2nd round, same as in the last 10 days, curves are still up for him and Fillon and down for Le Pen and Macron.
A former teacher of mine who studied FN's electorate in the last 5 years expects Le Pen to be higher than she is in the polls, based on their bias and what he saw in the numbers of the 2014-2015 elections.
It was a risk too huge to take 1 day before the campaign ends. I don't doubt he measured it well, as every big strategic decisions he took (not taking part in the primary, not making an alliance with Hamon etc)
Alx
Member
The rolling poll is Ipsos too, so I guess the method is fine.
The cevipof poll was taken earlier last week, and it doesn't really contradict the rolling. As I said what's interesting in such polls isn't the absolute value, but the trend. And Mélenchon has been trending down for the last few days. I also said it could be temporary, but he's been consistently on the rise for the last month, so it's definitely worth noticing.
The rolling poll is Ipsos too, so I guess the method is fine.
The cevipof poll was taken earlier last week, and it doesn't really contradict the rolling. As I said what's interesting in such polls isn't the absolute value, but the trend. And Mélenchon has been trending down for the last few days. I also said it could be temporary, but he's been consistently on the rise for the last month, so it's definitely worth noticing.
Ipsos doesn't have daily polls. Only Opinionway (Les Echos) and Ifop (Paris Match) do it.
The Cevipof/Ipsos data was collected last Sunday and Monday (16/17 April) so it's not that old really, especially since it's the poll with the best sample.
Also Mélenchon hasn't been trending down. Here is an agregation of all of the polls, he isn't down but reached kind of a peak at 19%. The Cevipof poll doesn't confirm your hypothesis though because the last Cevipof poll is two weeks old (and yeah Ipsos do other polls, and they even compare their polls between them, but that's not very scientific because of the margins of error)
Anyway, my point was that being that high could still lead him to the secound round
Alx
Member
My bad, I confused ipsos and ifop for some reason.
And an aggregate isn't the right way to track trends quickly, since you're mixing different methods that may have their own bias. There's a methodology to it.
The interesting thing in the recent Mélenchon drop, is that it appeared first on the Elabe poll last week, when Ifop had him still trending up. I thought it was an outlier, but a few days later, it appears on ifop too, which could confirm it (maybe because of their 3 days aggregate of their own data, which adds latency to the observation).
And an aggregate isn't the right way to track trends quickly, since you're mixing different methods that may have their own bias. There's a methodology to it.
The interesting thing in the recent Mélenchon drop, is that it appeared first on the Elabe poll last week, when Ifop had him still trending up. I thought it was an outlier, but a few days later, it appears on ifop too, which could confirm it (maybe because of their 3 days aggregate of their own data, which adds latency to the observation).
Hamon is probably going to prevent Melenchon from reaching the second round at this point.
Doh! That's what I get for posting late ><
Anglo-saxon media has tried to equate Trump with Le Pen, Macron with Clinton, and JLM with Sanders for a bit now. Close, but reality is far more nuanced than that.
You do realize French parties have primaries, right? It wouldn't have been 17 candidates from just one party in the general. Now, would all 17 candidates from the GOP stayed in the same party in the French system? Not sure. But if they had, I'm not sure Trump would have won that nomination. Only one election, with a run-off. Trump wasn't getting a majority of GOP support until he was too far ahead for others to catch up. The more "moderate" Republicans were splitting the vote and letting Trump gain momentum.
Not only does he need the 5% for $$$, but I'm wondering if he's doing it to take one for the team on Europe at this point. Also another way to avoid even lower turnout (the odds are pretty much 0 that MLP clinches it in the first round, but still, might as well keep up the pressure).
He would have supported Melenchon. He's likely doing it for the money and to avoid lower turnout in the first round.
A part of Macron's base is not web savy and melenchon has embraced the web a lot. So has le pen.
I hope so.
Regarding Melenchon's foreign policy, according to his recent tweets he thinks that NATO is somehow bad for world peace? And he wants to pull out of the missile defense shield? How on Earth is that a good idea, they exist for your benefit. Somehow having a missile defense shield is bad because the Russians don't like it? Please tell me he doesn't think NATO is some sort of US attack dog.
Also he wants the UN to start a global denuclearisation program? Please don't tell me he wants France to give up their nuclear arms too.
Also what:
https://twitter.com/JLMelenchon/status/854770608311332864
How does this help his bargaining position? I'm hoping I'm misunderstanding this, because unilaterally disobeying treaties the day he takes office is a great way to piss off your allies.
His foreign policy is legitimately concerning. It's like he has no understanding of the global security apparatus. I hope I'm reading this wrong lol
I'd be all for the eco-tax, great idea!
The rest though is pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. Global nuclear disarmament? Come on.
https://twitter.com/JLMelenchon/status/854771189646012416
Haha, I hope the EU calls his bluff if it comes to that. Nice play there. If that's the game he wants to play, I guess we will see if the EU can survive without France.
The eco tax and some of his environment policy are fine, but the projected cost of his election platform to taxpayers if implemented is just insane.Some of his idea are like you said pie in the sky wishful thinking. Fillon's platform is the opposite of Melenchon's.It cuts a lot of things like crazy to save a ton of money that saves taxpayers a ton of money when some of that money could be spent in other places.
I just find it so funny that he's going to tell the EU to go fuck themselves and then make a call for co-operation.
But I guess he's not anti-EU
Here's the recent harris poll. Macron is at 25% while Le Pen is at 22%. Melechon and Fillon are at 19% each and Hamon is at 7.5%.
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-con...residentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-con...residentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
Thanks
Holy shit @ his jump in people sure in their choice for Macron - 64% to 79% in 2 weeks
I think at this point either Macron or Le Pen will overperform the polls.I think people are moving to macron to avoid a Melenchon and Le Pen second round.
He's not against EU. Not at all. He just wants a better EU. By force. /s
Alx
Member
When he's talking "co-operation" or "new partnerships", I don't think he has other European countries in mind.
Quite reminiscent of UK being confident about the deals it can strike with external countries because "we're so important in the world history, everybody will want to follow us".
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I do, but the French primary system is pointless. Did Melenchon or Macron compete in the left primary? No, they ignored it and went ahead with their own campaign anyway in 2R. Did Dupont-Aignan run in the right primary and stick by the result? No, he ignored it and went ahead with his own campaign. The French primary system is a joke when the presidential system already has 2R; there's very little incentive for anyone to stick by it. If the Republicans had co-ordinated against Trump in a primary, he would have run as an independent in 1R, and I think still been the leading candidate from the right.
Mélenchon VS Bourdin on Venezuela
http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/vi...din-sur-la-question-venezuelienne-936221.html
... so is it just me or is JLM unable to answer to a simple question about this country ? The only theme he's overcomplexifying is foreign relations with dictatorships...
http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/vi...din-sur-la-question-venezuelienne-936221.html
... so is it just me or is JLM unable to answer to a simple question about this country ? The only theme he's overcomplexifying is foreign relations with dictatorships...
Despite what they called it, the left's primary was the Socialist Party's primary, so Macron and Mélenchon didn't participate there since they're not/no longer in the PS. In NDA's, it's cause he doesn't want to be president, he just likes running for president (so kinda like Trump on that front). Would you rather we have a jungle primary for the first round?
If we continue on this hypothetical, I think Trump would have run as an independent/made his own party, but the Republicans would have had a nominee from Bush/Rubio/a similar moderate, similar to Fillon in France. Who would have made it to the second round if you had Stein, Sanders, Clinton, Johnson, Bush, and Trump all together in the general? Who knows. Trump got 46% with just Clinton (and Johnson and Stein) against him, and I think both Bush and Sanders would have taken a significant chunk of his voters. Wish we had polls for this lol
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