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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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TheMan

TheMan

Member
BaronLundi said:
u5iGVMG.jpg
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qu'est-ce que ca veut dire
 
F

FDC1

Member
GAMEPROFF said:
I take this as that she got better polls after it?
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There wasn't enough time to see if there really was an impact. It happened Thurday evening and polls were closed Friday night. IMO the impact is limited, is somehow someone is thinking Le Pen presidency would be better to avoid terrorist attacks, he would have picked her a long time ago.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
GAMEPROFF said:
I take this as that she got better polls after it?
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The attack happened just before polls stopped being done (they're forbidden for the last day), so one can't say. But like Orioto and FDC1 I'm not sure the attack itself will have a major impact. Especially since it wasn't as "emotionally charged" as more spectacular ones like Bataclan and Nice : only one victim and not a civilian, done by a French weirdo and not a foreign terrorist coming back from Syria, and not even a "fiché S"...
 
M

Magni

Member
Rodolphe, 18 ans, a lui glissé un bulletin FN sans l’urne, mais « sans grande conviction ».

« Je me suis dit qu’il fallait un vrai changement. J’ai repensé à ses propositions pour les jeunes, j’avais vu une vidéo d’elle sur Snapchat. Et puis toute façon, je perds rien dans le truc, ça ne peut pas être pire que maintenant. Et au pire, c’est que cinq ans. »
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From Le Monde's interviews with voters. For fuck's sake.
 
K

Koren

Member
wumster3000 said:
It's strange that there were terror attacks right before this election.
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Not that strange, and honestly, we probably avoided a worse one (even if I'm sad for the policeman killed). Police arrested two people a couple days ago that most probably wanted to kill one of the candidates.

It's not new either, we've already had a terror attack before an election recently. The effect on the results weren't obvious, and in this one, it's probably the same. Probably slightly bad for Macron...

Definitively awful for Poutou, especially with his reaction, but well... ;)

Oreiller said:
Yeah, that's something that is quite baffling to me. I know a lot of Mélenchonistes who deem Macron worse than Fillon or Le Pen. Well, some of them argue that Hamon and Montebourg are right wing, so their critical thinking is pretty much inexistant but still.
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I'm not surprised that a lot of Mélenchonistes sees LePen as second choice. I would expect Fillon vs Macron to be less clear-cut, but I would have said Fillion would be a slightly more popular choice than Macron.

TheMan said:
what are the voting rates in French presidential elections typically like? Do most people actually vote or do half not bother like in the US?
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Usually it's quite high, around 3/4, although it's a bit misleading: there's about 7% of the people that COULD vote that are not counted. So it's actually rather 2/3 of people that COULD vote.

I still wish it was higher.

The real mess is european elections... Low voting rate AND most people take it as a "PRO or AGAINST" government and don't care about Europe (after that, it's not surprising that a lot of our european deputees don't care)
 
C

Chibrou

Member
Sorbodisapointed.gif

I get just voted in the city where Nda is mayor, didn't saw him,the rumour is that he's patrolling the voting place. Voter intimidation I suppose :)
Macron it was.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Magni said:
From Le Monde's interviews with voters. For fuck's sake.
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I honestly think 18 is too young to vote. It's not because I'm "old", but I remember how I was when I was 18 and honestly I had no clue. Never really worked nor paid taxes, no idea of the state of the country and what should be done with it (not that I'm much better now, but at least I'm trying), met few people out of my social circle...
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
Re: the poll that was published this morning. Basically, everyone denies doing such a poll.

La commission des sondages a fait parvenir aux médias ce communiqué :

"Ayant pris connaissance de la diffusion des résultats d'un sondage relatif au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle qui aurait été réalisé après l'attentat du jeudi 20 avril et qui serait attribué à un institut français qui n'est pas cité, la commission des sondages a obtenu des huit principaux instituts de sondages français (BVA, Elabe, Harris interactive, Kantar-TNS-Sofres, IFOP, Ipsos, Odoxa, OpinionWay) l'assurance qu'ils n'étaient pas les auteurs d'études ayant conduit à établir les données chiffrées publiées.

Dans ces conditions, la commission des sondages attire l'attention des électeurs français sur le fait qu'en l'état toute information relative à ce prétendu sondage doit être considérée comme une rumeur dépourvue de tout fondement."
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M

Magni

Member
Alx said:
I honestly think 18 is too young to vote. It's not because I'm "old", but I remember how I was when I was 18 and honestly I had no clue. Never really worked nor paid taxes, no idea of the state of the country and what should be done with it (not that I'm much better now, but at least I'm trying), met few people out of my social circle...
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I started following politics when I was 8, I was upset when I couldn't vote in 2007 in high school, but I get where you're coming from. Then again, a significant chunk of older voters also have no idea what they're doing.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
Alx said:
Yeah that's what I was going to post. It's hard to follow the "trust me, I'm an economist" argument when for the past months we've seen each candidate come with his own economist who would explain "par A+B" why his program will save us all while his opponent's will bring our doom.
Today it really feels like economists live in their own world, with their own references (who the fuck knows who Stiglitz is if he's not studying economy ?), and they have a long way before they can get any credit from the regular population, who's more likely to believe "they don't know what they're doing".
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The lack of credit is justified and not merely a blind belief. Look at how the country's economy has performed and the current set-up of the monetary system. The regular population has common sense.
 
B

BlindCommunication

Member
RTBF just published some early exit polls as usual, since French medias aren't allowed to :

Un sondage effectué à la sortie des urnes, obtenu par la RTBF, donne les résultats suivants :

Macron 24%

Le Pen 22%

Fillon 20,5%

Mélenchon 18%
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Very early days still but looks like Fillon and Le Pen are going to fight for that 2nd place.
 
K

Koren

Member
Magni said:
First results at 8pm French time, so in about 2.5 hours. Final results half an hour after that.
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You're an optimist... If it's close, we could well not having the results before late tonight, and there could even be disputes in the coming days.
 
D

dosh

Member
BaronLundi said:
Go go go ! :p

And yeah, if you want to maximise the chances of evicting LePen and Fillon, voting Hamon is probably not your best bet.
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I've been struggling with that decision for weeks now. In finally made a choice this morning, an hour or so before entering the voting booth, but I'm still debating if that was the right thing to do. This election cycle is exhausting.
 
B

BlindCommunication

Member
Ac30 said:
Is this at all trustworthy? Who's polling this?
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Multiple exit polls made by renowned institutes like Ipsos, the same institutes in charge of revealing the first results on French TV at 8PM tonight.

And yes it's as trustworthy as it gets, RTBF and other foreign medias usually reveal the results 1 or 2 hours earlier than their French counterparts because French regulations don't really apply to them.

Keep in mind this is just early exit polls, not the definitive ones. This election is ending 1h later than usual and the race is tighter than ever.
 
G

Grizzo

Member
As the hours go by, I'm getting more and more worried about the results.

Don't want to see my country go to waste.

Le Pen/Fillon would be absolutely awful, no doubt about it. I would be really ashamed of it.
 
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