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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Huw_Dawson
Member
We're sort of getting started with our electoral process here in the UK so I'm not completely current, but from what I'm reading, it's *probably* going to be a Macron vs Le Pen fight in the 2nd round, but it's annoyingly close between the three not-Le Pen front runners to actually make a confident prediction?
KillerStar
Member
LOL
Pas tous les bulletins, la loi dit deux bulletins au minimum (ce qu'a fait MLP ce matin d'ailleurs...)
Ce qui est assez illogique en soi, compte tenu de l'objectif visé.
C'est pour ça que je prends toujours tous les bulletins.
Not that you must be kept unaware of what's going on outside, but simply to avoid distractions that may introduce errors in the counting process.
It's a nice experience to have at least once in a lifetime.
C'est pour ça que je prends toujours tous les bulletins.
I've done that few years ago, and we had been asked to turn our phones off until the process was finished.
Not that you must be kept unaware of what's going on outside, but simply to avoid distractions that may introduce errors in the counting process.
It's a nice experience to have at least once in a lifetime.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Just came back. I think the youngest person waiting in line before I arrived was probably 75, lol. Le Pen is going to do well around here.
I went with Macron and I already have buyer's remorse. I don't know, I voted PS all my life but I just couldn't do it this time.
I went with Macron and I already have buyer's remorse. I don't know, I voted PS all my life but I just couldn't do it this time.
KillerStar
Member
Moi aussi.
Old people have not been an electoral force for the FN for quite a while.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
I took all the bulletins too but everybody just looked at me like I was a weirdo.
I live in Cannes, 06. Believe me, around here, they are.
I live in Cannes, 06. Believe me, around here, they are.
Systolique
Member
70+ people are in the majority voting Fillon, not Le Pen
Edit : and actually I'm quite sure the worst scores the FN does is with seniors, I'm not able to search for numbers at the moment though
Edit : and actually I'm quite sure the worst scores the FN does is with seniors, I'm not able to search for numbers at the moment though
They want you to work longer to pay them. 70+ voting for Fillon is a middle-finger to every one else.
Yes that's what some people are calling "le plafond gris"
Seniors are like 30% of those who actually vote and most of them don't vote FN.
True, and seniors are the population with the lowest abstention, that's why there is a real risk of a Fillon vs Le Pen 2nd turn
Palette Swap
Member
Yeah, everyone should do a ballot count at least once in their lifetime, it's an interesting experience. The first time I did it was in 2007 and it was like 70% Sarkozy where I was. I had actually voted blanc that time but I was happy to help.
We were asked to do it for the LR primary and didn't find it in ourselves to do it, because quite frankly I didn't see myself spending an hour bonding with these people.
When we were asked this morning, we answered (truthfully) that we wouldn't even be in the country tonight, but they must have thought we were assholes making terrible excuses rather than answering truthfully.
I'm a bit anxious about that turnout. On the one hand, I'm happy because it's generally a bad sign for FN. On the other hand, it might be a sign that Fillon is surging and the more I hear him, the less I want him anywhere near the run-off.
We were asked to do it for the LR primary and didn't find it in ourselves to do it, because quite frankly I didn't see myself spending an hour bonding with these people.
When we were asked this morning, we answered (truthfully) that we wouldn't even be in the country tonight, but they must have thought we were assholes making terrible excuses rather than answering truthfully.
I'm a bit anxious about that turnout. On the one hand, I'm happy because it's generally a bad sign for FN. On the other hand, it might be a sign that Fillon is surging and the more I hear him, the less I want him anywhere near the run-off.
Not voted yet.
Full disclosure, my gf is a solid leftist (she would have voted Hamon if he had a chance, might go for Poutou) and she's salty that I'm voting for Macron. She was still trying to change my mind yesterday night, so I theatened not to vote at all.
Most of my friends probably hate EM too, so wish me luck for the next few weeks <_>
Full disclosure, my gf is a solid leftist (she would have voted Hamon if he had a chance, might go for Poutou) and she's salty that I'm voting for Macron. She was still trying to change my mind yesterday night, so I theatened not to vote at all.
Most of my friends probably hate EM too, so wish me luck for the next few weeks <_>
You can still do the right thing and vote Mélenchon ;-)
I mean, if you want more of what's been happening these past few years, then sure Macron is a safe vote to achieve that.
Damn right !
Change in itself represents nothing. The status quo is better then negative change.
Systolique
Member
I've read sophisms in my life, but this one...
I mean apparently he doesn't know that?
"Probably" doesn't qualify.
Latest polls:
One done for a candidate : LePen (26) and Fillon (22). Macron (21) and Mélenchon (17) are out.
Another one : Macron (24) and Le Pen (23). Fillon (20,5) and Mélenchon (18,5) are out.
Odoxa : Macron (24.5) and Le Pen (23). Fillon (19) and Mélenchon (19) are out.
Opinionway : Macron (23) and Le Pen (22). Fillon (21) and Mélenchon (18) are out.
As far as big data go:
Filteris : Fillon (22) and LePen (21,5). Mélenchon (21) and Macron (20) are out.
Vigiglobe : Probably Fillon, Macron and Mélenchon in a tie for 2nd, LePen out.
PredictMyPresident : LePen (24) and Fillon (22). Macron (20) and Mélenchon (19) out.
In short: it's pretty much random at this point... Macron goes from 1st to 4th, LePen from 1st to 4th, Fillon from 1st to 3rd, Mélenchon from 2nd to 4th.
But also consider that polls don't take into account outre-mer, which, with the support of Flosse to Mélechon, has favored Mélenchon.
I disagree with that.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Done (procuration)
Now let's end this
Now let's end this
When I think that the modern idea of democracy is that if people talk, understand, and vote as they should, election should be a unanime vote...
The idea behind those kind of elections is that there's always errors, which make the unanimity not a thing. Using majority is just a way to guess what the correct unanimity vote would be.
We say polls are wrong with a 5% error, but technically, according to the philosophical principles of democracy, at the very least 80% of people voting are *wrong*. And probably more, because the ones that vote for the "correct" candidate (democracy principles says there's one, and only one correct vote) are definitively not ALL voting for him/her for the correct reasons...
Democracy just doesn't work...
The idea behind those kind of elections is that there's always errors, which make the unanimity not a thing. Using majority is just a way to guess what the correct unanimity vote would be.
We say polls are wrong with a 5% error, but technically, according to the philosophical principles of democracy, at the very least 80% of people voting are *wrong*. And probably more, because the ones that vote for the "correct" candidate (democracy principles says there's one, and only one correct vote) are definitively not ALL voting for him/her for the correct reasons...
Democracy just doesn't work...
Systolique
Member
2/20
Weird analysis, confuses a lot of things, forgets to even cite what "we" or philosophical principle he's refering to?
Terrible conclusion.
Hope this poster starts reading philosophy before he tries talking about it, or he surely won't get his baccalauréat in two years !
A voté.
At 2PM, participation seemed pretty good in my polling station. French people abroad seem to massively go out to vote, some cities have people waiting for hours before being able to cast their votes. Encouraging, especially since it was feared abstention was going to be high. Let's hope that's confirmed tonight.
At 2PM, participation seemed pretty good in my polling station. French people abroad seem to massively go out to vote, some cities have people waiting for hours before being able to cast their votes. Encouraging, especially since it was feared abstention was going to be high. Let's hope that's confirmed tonight.
Lord Frieza
Member
That really is all over the place for the top 4. Let's hope that Fliteris is the closest to reality.
I won't try to discuss philosophy in a foreign language, that would be awfully tricky. But I've discussed it a lot with faculty teachers. In fact, I read a lot about this and discussed it a lot, because I couldn't understand the idea why the majority should rule the minorities. Turned out that indeed that'd far far from the idea of democracy.
The modern idea behind democracy, developped by "les lumières", doesn't imply decisions taken at the majority unless some principles are checked, and they basically aren't. It's just that we lack any convincing solutions to get closer to a democratic ideal.
And I've got my baccalaureat 22 years ago, thanks
Systolique
Member
what
Also Filteris is worthless honestly, it's not polls and they don't even disclose the way they analyse social media """buzz""".
Palette Swap
Member
Yeah, no. Fillon-Le Pen is an awful run off. Probably my worst case scenario, if only because it gives MLP a very solid chance.
you want a second round between Le Pen and Fillon? What is wrong with you
gutter_trash
Banned
you can always lie to her on how you voted
Fillon v Le Pen is just as aweful as Mélanchon v Le Pen.
a bunch of Putin puppets
TheMan
Member
it's close but le pen is in the top 2 for all polls except for one. France, are you really gonna look at Trump and say- "yeah, i want that shit." ?
A healthy relationship for sure.
First of all, it's only the first round, we're nowhere near the Trump situation.
And also, most of Le Pen voters don't give a shit about everything that happens outside their own country.
I tend to agree, although I don't think we have all the details about the polling process (especially the postprocessing) and the polls have been really wrong in the past, such as in primaries, so they're not reliable either.
I'd say that judging the predictors on their success seems interesting. You can always try to understand why they're right after.
Not that Filteris has such a good history (Trump and Fillon in primaries, but they expected Sarkozy as runner-up, they missed Hamon for the other primaries)
Palette Swap
Member
I haven't hidden my dislike for parts of Mélenchon's platform, but I feel he'd be way more likely to compromise between both rounds than sociopathic German Wings Francois who's going to go all in on his bullshit and wonder why everyone hates him. I'm not particularly rooting for this scenario, mind you, as I'd love for MLP to be out tonight.
Just a reminder that first round and second round are two different beasts.
Not to downplay the growing and alarming support for Le Pen, but the main issue is the quality of the other leading candidates and the overall 'beyond salvage' state of the traditional parties.
Not true... They applaud Brexit, and many applaud Trump too (based on three things they roughly heard on TV).
That being said, Trump is the king of 180° turns, if LePen does exactly the opposite as she promise, we may have something decent
Diprosalic
Banned
I'm scared.
SVP france.
SVP france.
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