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[Men_in_Boxes]

In May 2022, and again in May 2023, PlayStation published a couple of oft discussed slides. The discussion surrounding these slides has usually been about where PlayStation is allocating their game development resources. However, just as big of a story seems to have slipped under most peoples radar. PlayStation seems to think the "full priced game market" is going to shrink over the next 5 years.

Here's what they thought in 2022: Digital and Physical software combined for 20 billion dollars in CY21. By CY26, PlayStation projected the same market to combine for 17 billion dollars, a -15% drop.
Here's what they thought in 2023: Digital full game software would plunge from 15 billion dollars in CY21 to 7.4 billion dollars in CY26. That's a roughly 50% drop.

PlayStation, a company set up beautifully to produce full priced games, not only doesn't see growth in that market, they don't see a plateau either. They see the full priced game market atrophying considerably.



(Q1 2022)

(Q1 2023)

 

[bitbydeath]

Only a tiny drop, probably due to games taking longer to make.

 

[LectureMaster]

Well, maybe if you could let all your signature studios keep releasing games in a reasonable pace, there wouldn't be any shrink.

 

[poppabk]

Coincides with the CMA prediction that game streaming will be $15 billion in revenue by 2026.
ie all these predictions are bullshit

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

To go from $20b to $17b....

OMG the sky is falling! Pack it up folks, no more FP SP games from Sony anymore....

/s

 

[mayham2199]

Tons of companies also projected massive growth because of Covid and didn’t see the drop coming.

 

[Crayon]

The way you changed your avatar from Concord to Marathon like nothing happened kills me.

 

[peish]

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Tons of companies also projected massive growth because of Covid and didn’t see the drop coming.

This.

Also, times are tough nowadays with the shit world-economy and it's going to get worse.

 

[lh032]

games take longer to make
70 dollar
and compare with covid period.

Not really surprising, imo the statisitc seems fine for me

 

[Justin9mm]

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

A lot of Sony's 1st Party titles sell gangbusters no matter the economic climate. If GP was such good value, why hasn't everyone jumped ship to Xbox? GP has it's place but that type of model will never take over gaming. It's not sustainable for Xbox or Developers and Publishers. Xbox is in a financial hole.

 

[SHA]

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

If you are a speed runner and beat games easily then you can effectively eat that $140 a hundred times, you can't do that with food.

 

[EDMIX]

Well, maybe if you could let all your signature studios keep releasing games in a reasonable pace, there wouldn't be any shrink.

Sure but, if they did that, you'd just complain when those games have issues.

Their top studios are the top studios for a reason, they put out quality work.

So maybe Rockstar and Naughty Dog are on to something, if someone is going to demand AAA quality, they clearly will charge AAA price, but that means real AAA time must be put into those works to get those games 100% or near 100%

Its too greedy to really expect everyone to be like Insomniac lol

 

[The_Observer]

Who would have thought that technical regression, constantly remastering/remaking, filling games with retarded propaganda and chasing shitty gaas trends while asking more money for them will result in fewer full price sales? Seems they are finally right about something.

 

[Three]

To go from $20b to $17b....

OMG the sky is falling! Pack it up folks, no more FP SP games from Sony anymore....

/s

That was the prediction for CY26 before.
Now it's a predicted 50% drop in the games market. From $15b to $7.4b. The games industry is struggling and weirdly people are oblivious or cheering it on.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Even Sony is spreading the doom and gloom of the industry. I keep reading on here that Sony is doing more than great and it's FUD that others are spreading, but now we have it coming from the horses mouth. If sony is expecting decline, I think we could be heading towards a crash.

 

[gooner4life_uk]

make good games and they will sell.

 

[Fabieter]

they investing more and more in f2p concord kind of shit and dont expect the market to be the same. Self fulfilled prophecy.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Even Sony is spreading the doom and gloom of the industry. I keep reading on here that Sony is doing more than great and it's FUD that others are spreading, but now we have it coming from the horses mouth. If sony is expecting decline, I think we could be heading towards a crash.

What would that crash look like?

 

[TrebleShot]

You can counter this by releasing on more platforms.

 

[Fabieter]

You can counter this by releasing on more platforms.

They can but the point of the thread is that there has to be deeper problem within the industry. Releasing on more platforms wouldn't resolve anything of that.

 

[midnightAI]

Well, maybe if you could let all your signature studios keep releasing games in a reasonable pace, there wouldn't be any shrink.

Nah, let them take their time and make awesome games, let the third party developers take up the slack. AAA games take a while and I'd rather Sonys first party work on those. Astro Bot is amazing, but I don't want all Sony's internal studios working on smaller games (1 or 2 studios fine, but that's exactly what they've got). But even Astro, how long did it take? 3-4 years?

 

[hemo memo]

Tons of companies also projected massive growth because of Covid and didn’t see the drop coming.

That's just stupidity on their part. You don't need a business degree to know things will drop. Literally anyone on the street would tell you that.

 

[Bernardougf]

When games are coming out incomplete with bugs and perfomance issues and receiving huge improvements in the first 6 to 12 months to become a better game is not a surprise that more and more people are not willing to be basically beta testers for your company .... Sony games from first party tend to be more polished but the mentality estabilshed by the majority of games usually establishes the buying habits of the gamer imo.

You can pay 70 dollars now or pay less later to play a game with less or almost no bugs and with perfomance packages that hugely improve the experience. In the meantime you can also receive some DLC content.

Case in point... aside the absolute need to play a day 1 game... buying day1/preordering games are really a bad choice in todays gaming market and it is all their fault.

 

[midnightAI]

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

We are talking about the survival of these platforms yeh? How is getting only $140 a year from gamers who 'could' play dozens of games going to do that? (And let's face it many people have got, and will to continue to get, gamepass cheaper than that)

Now I may be unique, but I got my Series S free (phone contract), and I got the first two years gamepass free also, I have played loads of games, I don't see how MS made any money out of me at all (I know EE will have given MS money for the console etc. but I doubt it was much as it's all done as promotion/get numbers on gamepass)

 

[Fabieter]

Nah, let them take their time and make awesome games, let the third party developers take up the slack. AAA games take a while and I'd rather Sonys first party work on those. Astro Bot is amazing, but I don't want all Sony's internal studios working on smaller games (1 or 2 studios fine, but that's exactly what they've got). But even Astro, how long did it take? 3-4 years?

3 years 80 people. Most successful 3d platformed after Mario seems like a better deal than alot of their bigger games.

 

[hemo memo]

When games are coming out incomplete with bugs and perfomance issues and receiving huge improvements in the first 6 to 12 months to become a better game is not a surprise that more and more people are not willing to be basically beta testers for your company .... Sony games from first party tend to be more polished but the mentality estabilshed by the majority of games usually establishes the buying habits of the gamer imo.

You can pay 70 dollars now or pay less later to play a game with less or almost no bugs and with perfomance packages that hugely improve the experience. In the meantime you can also receive some DLC content.

Case in point... aside the absolute need to play a day 1 game... buying day1/preordering games are really a bad choice in todays gaming market and it is all their fault.

Exactly. Buying on day one or, even worse, pre-ordering means you're paying the highest price for the game in its worst time to play it.

 

[Judge Magister]

You can counter this by releasing on more platforms.

 

[Ronin_7]

Those projections are made using Excel 97.

 

[midnightAI]

When games are coming out incomplete with bugs and perfomance issues and receiving huge improvements in the first 6 to 12 months to become a better game is not a surprise that more and more people are not willing to be basically beta testers for your company .... Sony games from first party tend to be more polished but the mentality estabilshed by the majority of games usually establishes the buying habits of the gamer imo.

You can pay 70 dollars now or pay less later to play a game with less or almost no bugs and with perfomance packages that hugely improve the experience. In the meantime you can also receive some DLC content.

Case in point... aside the absolute need to play a day 1 game... buying day1/preordering games are really a bad choice in todays gaming market and it is all their fault.

That is the beauty of the physical market in the UK, you can get them pretty much a tenner or more cheaper at launch. I think it's mainly Europe that is keeping the platform holders from going all digital because many still prefer physical for that reason.

 

[Bernardougf]

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

Gamepass is a failed trojan horse model unsustainable to any company outside MS infinity cash ... I think it can exist in some form but imo it will certainly change even more when MS realizes COD will not save it. So dont expect to last long as it is. And Sony probably is just waiting for MS to also pull their plug. Dont think next gen will have this models of subscription, not exactly like this anyway.

 

[hemo memo]

Those projections are made using Multiplan 1982.

Ftfy

 

[yogaflame]

I know there is inflation, political climate and war world wide. Those really are serious matter, and they have my sympathy. But I do really hope they can find a way to make games cheaper. 70$ is still way to expensive. I hope A.I. can help make the development of games cheaper, but only on the tech side like graphics and frame rate and resolution. Human should always still be the lead in the creative and design part.

Off topic , that is why Physical copy is more worth it for me due to the price of games today. I really feel I own the game and I can collect it and appreciate it especially if ti has good packaging and freebies inside the case.

 

[midnightAI]

3 years 80 people. Most successful 3d platformed after Mario seems like a better deal than alot of their bigger games.

Yeh, I know, love the game, but I wouldn't want loads of these types of games from Sony, one a year max .it's the very fact the game is different from their regular games that has made it so special, if this was the third or fourth main Astro (not counting VR or the pack in etc) then I don't think it would be as special as it is. t's the heavy hitters from ND, SSM, Sucker Punch, Insomniac etc. that they are well known for and I personally don't want to see that change.

 

[FUBARx89]

"Live service - 60%". Even after shit canning half the GAAS games? And the failure of Concord. Think the slides are abit out of date after Jimbo left.

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

What you mean? Playstation owners earn more money than Xbox, PC & Nintendo owners. Ain't no peasant rental subscription needed to play new games for PlayStation fans.

/s

 

[DenchDeckard]

What would that crash look like?

Thousands of lay offs. Budgets massively stripped back. A reset basically, and a re adjustment where studios have to start building games based on revised budgets. Insane overly budgeted titles such as Last of Us 2, Halo Infinite, Concord and SPider man 2 will be stripped back to maybe 80-100 million dollars. Probably shorter games around 10 - 15 hours etc.

This is hypothetical and from my ass but something I could see happening.

 

[peish]

We are talking about the survival of these platforms yeh? How is getting only $140 a year from gamers who 'could' play dozens of games going to do that? (And let's face it many people have got, and will to continue to get, gamepass cheaper than that)

Now I may be unique, but I got my Series S free (phone contract), and I got the first two years gamepass free also, I have played loads of games, I don't see how MS made any money out of me at all (I know EE will have given MS money for the console etc. but I doubt it was much as it's all done as promotion/get numbers on gamepass)

But $70 games are turning people off. The subs model needs time to get their investment back, if it is bad, why are we seeing so many businesses moving to subs now? As you already enjoying subsidised phone contract too.

Gamepass is a failed trojan horse model unsustainable to any company outside MS infinity cash ... I think it can exist in some form but imo it will certainly change even more when MS realizes COD will not save it. So dont expect to last long as it is. And Sony probably is just waiting for MS to also pull their plug. Dont think next gen will have this models of subscription, not exactly like this anyway.

Failure is more from Xbox messaging and marketing. Gamepass standalone, is good. But MS trails behind in their games library. However said, i think we are also seeing some gamers' fatigue to Sony cinematic blockbuster games, as seen in this topic starter, Sony seems worried about declining sales.

 

[Bernardougf]

But $70 games are turning people off. The subs model needs time to get their investment back, if it is bad, why are we seeing so many businesses moving to subs now? As you already enjoying subsidised phone contract too.



Failure is more from Xbox messaging and marketing. Gamepass standalone, is good. But MS trails behind in their games library. However said, i think we are also seeing some gamers' fatigue to Sony cinematic blockbuster games, as seen in this topic starter, Sony seems worried about declining sales.

The fatique imho is directly correlated to the lower quality of the games, all their sequels have been subpar to previous games... the same as the marvel fatique speech with the horrible fase 4 movies and disney+ shows or star wars fatique.... IMO we have a bad sequel fatique from Sony, no wonder one of the most successful games last gen was GOT a new IP.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Failure is more from Xbox messaging and marketing. Gamepass standalone, is good. But MS trails behind in their games library.

GamePass is a dead end and completely unsustainable. Especially given Xbox marketshare.

However said, i think we are also seeing some gamers' fatigue to Sony cinematic blockbuster games, as seen in this topic starter, Sony seems worried about declining sales.

A lot of the decline in full-priced sales have to do with lots of cheap or f2p Gaas-titles.

The most played games are predominantely f2p live service titles and lots of them are rather good.
This alone makes it harder and harder to justify €80 game releases with 'only' 10-20 hours of playtime.
(100hrs to 100% those games is irrelevant, as most people don't even tend to finish the main stories).

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

That was the prediction for CY26 before.
Now it's a predicted 50% drop in the games market. From $15b to $7.4b. The games industry is struggling and weirdly people are oblivious or cheering it on.

The 2023 graph only shows digital revenues. It omits physical games entirely. Look at it carefully. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Sony is expecting ditigal full game sales to drop but be made up for in subs and add-on content, i.e. GaaS, Free to Play and PSN+ services will see disproportionate growth.

That does not mean the games industry struggling. It merely represents a major shift in how gamers engage with the different gaming business models. It's also only a prediction and judging how GaaS games are starting to stagnate, I can see the shift in reality being no where near as dramatic as this.

The core gamer still wants to buy full priced games. So it's more about whether pubs (many of which have been taken over by completely disconnected woketards) actually make the games that gamers want or continue chasing lightening in a bottle and failing miserably.

 

[Three]

The 2023 graph only shows digital revenues. It omits physical games entirely. Look at it carefully. It's not an apples to apples comparison.

Sure but expecting physical to have better growth in 2026 is crazy, no? It's about the decline of full game software. If Digital is declining Physical isn't going to help if it's declining worse.

Sony is expecting ditigal full game sales to drop but be made up for in subs and add-on content, i.e. GaaS, Free to Play and PSN+ services will see disproportionate growth.

That =/= the games industry struggling. It merely represents a major shift in how gamers engage with the different gaming business models.

Fair point, but the mtx with sub business model isn't where I hope the industry is headed. Even then their projections are lower.

 

[DEAD ORIGINAL]

Full price for something like Cod is now looking a bad deal WARZONE is the best bit but the cheaters (PC players) have ruined it.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Sure but expecting physical to have better growth in 2026 is crazy, no? It's about the decline of full game software. If Digital is declining Physical isn't going to help if it's declining worse.

Where did I say physical will have better growth? My only point is that it won't go from $11B to zero by 2026. It'll still be a significant portion of the pie, mainly because far too many regions of the world rely on physical and cannot support online-only.

Fair point, but the mtx with sub business model isn't where I hope the industry is headed. Even then their projections are lower.

These are revenue charts. It's about where the most money is spent. That really doesn't say much about how many AAA full games are released and how many are successful. It's mostly about where the majority of the dollar spend will be; and that's always driven by the casual gamer of which spends more time in Roblox, Fortnite and Minecraft than any of the games we play.

 

[Three]

Where did I say physical will have better growth? My only point is that it won't go from $11B to zero by 2026. It'll still be a significant portion of the pie, mainly because far too many regions of the world rely on physical and cannot support online-only.

You didn't but you made it seem like the 15B to 7.4B collapse of digital game sales is OK because it doesn't include physical but if physical was included in both then the 50% collapse would be an even worse percentage.

These are revenue charts. It's about where the most money is spent. That really doesn't say much about how many AAA full games are released and how many are successful. It's mostly about where the majority of the dollar spend will be; and that's always driven by the casual gamer of which spends more time in Roblox, Fortnite and Minecraft than any of the games we play.

I get that but it's clear that there is going to be less spend on full game releases if sales are shrinking by 50%.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Full price for something like Cod is now looking a bad deal WARZONE is the best bit but the cheaters (PC players) have ruined it.

Buy on console and turn off crossplay.

 

[peish]

Imo, consoles hardware should be priced higher while games pricing goest back down to $40-50. Time for reverse razor model.
If next gen games start at $75-80, instant nope out for me.

 

[ZehDon]

Looks like Sony are projecting a fairly sizeable shift in gamer's tastes - shifting from the AUD$125.00 release towards reoccurring live-service models. Not a fan, but it's hard to argue against it given what gets served up.

For my two cents, I'd think this has to do with gamers simply turning their backs on the failing AAA model. AAA games drop with less frequency due to their insane development timelines, causing publishers to over-hyper their limited releases while delivering trash like Star Wars Outlaws, Battlefield 2042, and Redfall. Now costing AUD$125.00, they come fully loaded with Battle Passes, Season Passes, DLC, and MTX. Add in platform fees like PlayStation+ or whatever they call Xbox Live Gold these days for multiplayer, and the AAA model simply doesn't deliver. Gamers are more likely to find a game they like - be it Call of Duty, Diablo IV, Minecraft, etc. - and invest their time and money rather than run out for the latest blockbuster that's more than likely a disappointment.

If Sony are correct, then the AAA well may just have been poisoned - which means we're not just looking at a shrinking market, but a crashing one.

 

[PaintTinJr]

But $70 games are turning people off. The subs model needs time to get their investment back, if it is bad, why are we seeing so many businesses moving to subs now? As you already enjoying subsidised phone contract too.

The subsidised phone honeymoon died about 10years ago. Now the phone companies are just selling on credit agreements by third parties and getting a cut at massively unfavourable terms to the consumer - compared to buying a phone through a manufacturer direct or retail like amazon and getting offered interest free credit on 12/24month, or acceptable markup interest over 12/24months like 10% on a £1500 handset.

Long gone are the days where buying on contract got a massive saving on handset at the risk of the mobile company supplying.

Failure is more from Xbox messaging and marketing. Gamepass standalone, is good. But MS trails behind in their games library. However said, i think we are also seeing some gamers' fatigue to Sony cinematic blockbuster games, as seen in this topic starter, Sony seems worried about declining sales.

I've looked through Gamepass frequently of when to use a trial, and the content just isn't strong enough even to waste a one time free trial on, and after more than a decade using video streaming services the value is questionable even if they were still charging the decade old original price.

 

[Walter Matthau]

 

[midnightAI]

But $70 games are turning people off. The subs model needs time to get their investment back, if it is bad, why are we seeing so many businesses moving to subs now? As you already enjoying subsidised phone contract too.

Is it? Millions of people buy games at $70, heck, back in the SNES days they were more expensive than that if you take inflation into account (they were still $50-$60 back then)

And I'm not saying gamepass is bad for the consumer, it's great for them, it's bad for Microsoft/XBox, they are make nothing from it, especially as because the games are on gamepass the subs have to pay for the game development. Why do you think MS wants to put games on other platforms? It's the only way they can make money, MS is getting to the point where they can't just keep chucking money at XBox especially after spending billions buying publishers.